Winter Storm Shutting Everything Down In North Dakota; Likely That We Won't See Updates From NDIC Tomorrow; Bismarck Will Be Shut Down Tonight; April 26, 1994: 8 Inches Snow in Bismarck; This Weekend: 16 Inches (So Far)

Updates

April 15, 2013: not sure of the exact time when these totals were provided, but this was seen Monday morning:

• Bismarck: 23.5 inches
• Glen Ullin: 18 inches
• Strasburg: 16 inches
• Garrison: 14 inches
  

Original Post

Dynamic link. Posted at 8:36 EST; 7:36 CST in Bismarck.

Interstate 94 is closed across the entire state, from the Montana state line to Fargo. ND Highway 83 connecting Bismarck with Minot is closed from Bismarck, north to the river, nearly to Garrison, ND.

I-29 is closed from Fargo north to Grand Forks.

The highway patrol can easily close the interstates; it's a bit more difficult to close the state highways; locals and farmers are pretty independent up there. So, north and south of I-94 no travel is advised but roads are not closed or blocked.

Snow depths released by National Weather Service in Bismarck at 7 p.m. on Sunday, reported by The Bismarck Tribune:

• Bismarck 15.8 inches
• Strasburg 16 inches
• Sterling 15 inches
• Dickinson 16 inches
• Hazelton 16.1 inches
• Ashley 14 inches
• Hazen 11.2 inches
• Mandan 15 inches

So, 16 inches in Bismarck in April. How does that stack up with days gone by? From wiki:

The climate of Bismarck tends to be dry, with yearly precipitation averaging only 16.8 inches (427 mm).

The 1990s were a very moist period for Bismarck. The earlier part of the decade was documented for heavy snowfall as the snowiest winter on record in Bismarck was the winter of 1993-94, when 91.7 inches (233 cm) of snow fell, including a late-season 8.5 inches (22 cm) snowfall on April 26, 1994.

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Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow:

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow, The Baseballs

Todd Field -- West Side of Williston

Permits

2013

26487, conf, Statoil, Hawkeye 16-21 2TFH, Todd,
26486, conf, Statoil, Hawkeye 16-21 4H, Todd,
26485, conf, Statoil, Hawkeye 16-21 3TFH, Todd
25082, conf, Statoil/BEXP, Field Trust 7-6 6H ,Todd,
25081, conf, Statoil/BEXP, Field Trust 7-6 3TFH, Todd,
25080, conf, Statoil/BEXP, Field Trsut 7-6 4H, Todd,
25079, conf, Statoil/BEXP, Field Trust 7-6 5TFH, Todd,
24742, 911, Zenergy, K2 Holdings 31-32H, Todd, t5/13; cum 37K 8/13;

2012

23150, 1,089, Zenergy, Peters Road 30-29H, Todd, t9/12; cum 55K 8/13;
23092, drl, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 4H, Todd,
23091, drl, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 3TFH, Todd,
23090, 2,118, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 2TFH, Todd, t1/13; cum 62K 8/13;
23089, 3,164, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 1H, Todd, t1/13; cum 88K 8/13;
22875, 2,341, BEXP, Pryamid 15-22 1H, Todd, t4/13; cum 64K 8/13;
22874, 1,884, BEXP, Pryamid 15-22 2TFH, Todd t3/13; cum 34K 8/13;
22873, 2,35, BEXP, Pryamid 15-22 3H, Todd, t3/13; cum 70K 8/13;
22872, 3,091, BEXP, Pryamid 15-22 4H, Todd, t3/13; cum 47K 8/13;
22623, 2,766, BEXP, Heen 26-35 3TFH, Todd, t10/12; cum 77K 8/13;

2011

22081, 3,383, Statoil/BEXP, Heen 26-36 2H, t9/12; cum 109K 8/13;
22057, 2,561, Statoil/BEXP, Wagenman 29-32 1H, Todd, t9/12; cum 85K 8/13;
22056, 2,437, BEXP, Wagenman 29-32 2H, Todd, t10/12; cum 92K 8/13;
21933, 636, CLR, Plano 1-28H, Todd, t3/12; cum 112K 8/13;
21712, 2,604, BEXP, Rich 30-31 3H, Todd, t10/12; cum 93K 8/13;
21711, 2,272, BEXP, Rich 30-31 2H, Todd, t10/12; cum 82K 8/13;
21710, 3,229, BEXP, Rich 30-31 1H, Todd, t10/12; cum 98K 8/13;
21709, 2,066, BEXP, Borsheim Trsut 33-28 3H, Todd, t8/12; cum 107K 8/13;
21562, 2,037, BEXP, Borsheim Trust 33-28 2H, Todd, t3/12; cum 156K 8/13;
21499, 2,327, BEXP,  Dominek 13-24 1H, Todd, t2/12; cum 119K 8/13;
21150, 3,021, Oasis, Kestrel Federal 5401 43-22H, cum 1170K 8/13;
21007, 2,788, BEXP, Orville 4-9 1H, Todd, t3/12; cum 136K 8/13;
21006, 3,001, BEXP, Orville 4-9 2H, Todd, t3/12; cum 154K 8/13;
21005, 2,436, BEXP, Borsheim Trust 33-28 1H, Todd, t3/12; cum 121K 8/13;
20999, 2,603, BEXP, Cherrey 34-27 1H, Todd, t4/12; cum 149K 8/13;
20998, 3,024, BEXP, Charles 3-10 2H, Todd, t4/12; cum 129K 8/13;
20997, 2,823, BEXP, Charles 3-10 1H, Todd, t5/12; cum 126K 8/13;
20980, 2,708, BEXP, Hawkeye 16-21 1H, Todd, t11/11; cum 145K 8/13;
20282, 2,671, BEXP, Williston Airport 2-11 1H, Todd, t10/11; cum 182K 8/13;

2010

20214, 2,004, BEXP, Field Trsut 7-6 1H, Todd, t6/11; cum 129K 8/13;
20160, 2,173, BEXP, Field 18-19 3H, Todd, t10/11; cum 123K 8/13;
20159, 2,752, BEXP, Field 18-19 2H, Todd, t8/12; cum 111K 8/13;
19829, 2,965, BEXP, O'Neill 17-20 1H, Todd, t5/11; cum 190K 8/13;
19629, PNC, BEXP, Field 7-6 1H, Todd,
19584, 2,192, BEXP, Dave Arnson 8-5-1H, t5/11; cum 173K 8/13;
19119, 3,425, BEXP, Heen 26-35 1H, Todd, t11/10; cum 230K 8/13;

Original Post

Todd oil field includes the west side of Williston extending to south to the river, and north about three miles north of the city. It is "owned" by BEXP.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over the Weekend, Monday; Two More BEXP Jarold Wells Come Off The List

North Dakota still shows I-94 completely closed -- from Montana state line to Fargo. Bismarck's Highway 83 north toward Minot remains closed. I'll be pleasantly surprised if this data is updated today. In fact, conditions have worsened in some parts of the state. In the northeast, around Grand Forks, roads are covered with snow, perhaps impassable in many areas. 

This is what you would see (or not see):



Fargo, The Movie, Opening Scene

********************************

Monday, April 15, 2013, tax day
21547, 281, Whiting, Teddy 11-20TFH, Big Stick, preliminary results not great, 13 stages; 700,000 lbs sand; Pronghorn/Sanish; something about the geology report did not impress me. 
23117, drl, BEXP, Cora 20-17 4H, Poe,
23136, 162, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-94-13B-24-1H, East Tioga, t12/12; cum 13K 2/13;
23418, 625, Hess, EN-Hegland 155-94-0508H-3, Manitou, t2/13; cum 15K 2/13;
23591, drl, Samson Resources, Bakke 3229-3H, Ambrose,

Sunday, April 14, 2013
22371, drl, QEP/Helis, Hazel 13-34/27H, Grail,
22456, 247, G3 Operating/Petro-Hunt, Hoff 157-100-1A-12-1H, Dublin, t12/12; cum 30K 2/13;
23187, 364, CLR, Diana 1-12H, Stoneview, t1/13; cum 6K 2/13;

Saturday, April 13, 2013 (see below the break)
21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, t2/13; cum 11K 2/13;
23091, drl, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 3TFH, Todd, no data;
23092, drl, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 4H, Todd, no data;
23264, 658, Hess, GO-Seaton 156-98-0706H-2, Wheelock, t3/13; cum --
23545, drl, BEXP, Albert B. 27-34 3H, Nameless, no data;
23624, drl, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-3H, Pershing, no data;

**********************

Note: two Jarold wells come off the confidential list Monday (from Saturday). I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to DRL status. Be that as it may, here are the results of the other two Jarold wells in taht section reported last month:

• 23089, 3,164, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 1H, Todd, t1/13; cum 13K 1/13;
• 23090, 2,118, BEXP, Jarold 25-36 2TFH, Todd, t1/13; cum 7K 1/13;

We're Gonna Run Out Of Alphabet Before We Run Out Of Winter (Spring); Yogi On Deck For Later This Week

We're up to global warming storm XERXES. We may run out of alphabet before we run out of global warming this winter (spring).  The WunderGround is reporting:

Winter Storm Xerxes became the latest nuisance storm to pound the Northern Plains, dealing yet another snowy blow to the Dakotas and Minnesota on Sunday.

"I'm not sure which is more cruel -- the blizzard in Bismarck, which has had a few tastes of 60-degree weather this spring, or the snowstorm ahead for Grand Forks, which hasn't gotten above 40 degrees even once so far in 2013," said weather.com meteorologist Nick Wiltgen.

Some areas in North Dakota were nearing the one-foot mark for snowfall accumulations from Xerxes by mid-afternoon on Sunday, while areas in North and South Dakota experienced blizzard conditions, according to local reports.

Links to earlier stories. North Dakota's I-94 closed from mid-state, Mandan/Bismarck, to Montana state line.

Random Note on Coal: Overseas Coal Is Surging; US Coal Plants Closing; US Coal Exports At Record

The Billings Gazette is reporting:

Federal officials forecast that 175 coal-burning power plant units will be shuttered in the next five years, equal to 8.5 percent of the total electricity produced by coal, largely because of competition from cheap natural gas and costs of complying with new environmental regulations.

Overseas markets, by contrast, have been booming.

While analysts expect demand to slip temporarily this year, 2012 saw a record 125 million tons of coal exported from the U.S. Some in the industry project that figure could double in just the next five years if new ports and port expansions are built in Washington state, Oregon and the Gulf Coast.

When Don sent me the article earlier, I missed the flip side of the coin, which Don pointed out: all those "shuttering" coal plants mean a lot of natural gas will be required. That's good news because even if the natural gas folks cut back on drilling, the oil fields will keep on producing a lot of natural gas. Who would have ever thought that an oversupply of natural gas would be a problem for energy companies?

A Photo Op. What A Great Bakken Story

I thought I had posted a story about Renae Mitchell, but couldn't find it, so maybe I haven't. I have now.
 

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

North Dakota’s oil boom is allowing a Fargo woman to make a living doing what she loves.

Renae Mitchell always had a passion for photography and decided to make it her profession in 2010.

Initially, the single mother of two had a tough time making ends meet with a photography business.

Then she decided to showcase some of her work in her hometown of Williston, one of her favorite areas to photograph. One of the images she took for fun that she later added to her portfolio is a silhouette of a drilling rig north of Williston against a sunset.

“The sunsets out here are to die for,” said Mitchell, 41.

She caught the attention of some oil company representatives who were looking for wall decor for their new North Dakota offices.

“That’s when I discovered there was a niche to be had,” Mitchell said.

This is a great story; go to the link to read the rest.

Two Articles Via The Oil Drum: Shell Looking 50 Years Out; China, Shale Gas, and CO2

Updates

Later, 3:47 pm: When I linked the articles below, I had only scanned through the second one, looking at the graphs. I had not looked at the first article at all, except to note it from The New York Times. I added that note about burning trees as a source of energy as a joke; I wasn't being serious at all.  I guess I wasn't a bit off base.

I'm not sure which article the writer was responding to, but at this link, here was a comment about burning trees for energy:

In sweden it is quite common to collect the forks and sometimes even the tree stumps then logging. They are used as a thermal fuel.

The situation may of course be a little bit different from other countries since there are no coal but plenty trees. Then the forks and the tree stumps have been used there is however nothing more to get regardless of how you plan to use it.

I can't make this stuff up.

Original Post

I will leave you with two linked stories, both from The Oil Drum.

I hope to come back to both these linked stories and comment on them later.

First, from The New York Times: China must exploit its shale gas -- activist environmentalists need to get on board; faux environmentalists can keep advocating burning trees.

And, second, Shell's annual view of long-term energy, out to 2060, this time. Figure 1 at the linked article is particularly noteworthy, certainly in light of the The New York Times article linked above.

Boston Marathon Tomorrow -- It's Gonna Be Cold, Very Cold

And speaking of being cold, the AP is reporting:

A windy, wintry mix of light snow and rain forced the Minnesota Twins to postpone their inter-league series finale against the New York Mets on Sunday.

The game will be made up on Monday afternoon, Aug. 19.

The Twins announced the decision about four hours before the scheduled game. On Sunday morning, light snow was falling, and the forecast called for rain and a high of 38 degrees.

Folks, I am trying very, very hard to minimize my stories on global warming, but Mother Nature simply won't play ball.

And it looks like there's every possibility they won't play the scheduled games in Minneapolis tomorrow, Tuesday, or Wednesday. Forecast: very cold, maybe snow. 

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North Dakota winter storm (spring) has closed I-94 from mid-state (Mandan/Bismarck) to Montana state line.  (dynamic link of course)

Hay Creek - Harding - Estes - Nelson Bridge Fields -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

There are a number of very small fields, southwest of Williston, just east of Fairview:

• Harding: one 1280-acre spacing unit; stand-up
• Estes: one 1280-acre spacing unit; stand-up
• Hay Creek: two 1280-acre spacing units; both stand up; 
• Nelson Bridge: two 1280-acre spacing units: both stand up

In addition, there are parts of four sections, each 640-acre spacing to the west of these fields, situated right on the state line.

A two-well pad has a horizontal running north into the 1280-acre spacing unit of Harding; and a horizontal running south into the 1280-acre unit of Estes:

• 24128, 1,304, Whiting, Miller 34-8-1H, Harding,  t3/13; cum --
• 24558, 834, Whiting, Langwald 31-17-1H, Estes, t3/13; cum --

In Hay Creek:

• 24730, drl, a horizontal running south in the southern 1280-acre spacing unit, Whiting, Finsaas 31-16-2H, Hay Creek,
• 22345, PNC, Murex, Amber Elizabeth 9-4XH, Hay Creek,
• 23537, conf, Murex, Amber Elizabeth 9-4H, Hay Creek,

In Nelson Bridge, there is one well sited:

• 25086, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 150-104-3A-10-4H, Nelson Bridge,

There are a couple of old, still active wells in the area:

• 11130, 60, Abraxas/Phillips, Flynn 1, a vertical Madison well (Birdbear, PNA; Red River, Dry); 160-acre spacing; t3/86; cum 168K 2/13; in the Estes field
• 12262, 4/28/30/817, Duperow/Madison/Duperow; Red River; Murex/Sun Exploration, B. Langwald 1, Hay Creek; the Duperow and Madison are still active; to date: Duperow: 70K; Madison: 62K; Red River: 283K (now PNA)
• 12648, 50/83, Madison/Duperow; CLR/Wyoming Resources, Yellowstone 1, Hay Creek, Red River was dry; to date -- Madison: 72K; Duperow: 150K; both still active

And, finally, in the 640-acre spacing units along the state line, two wildcat wells:

• 22171, PNC, Murex, Evy June 18-19H, wildcat,
• 23696, conf, Murex, Evy June 18-19H, wildcat,

I assume these spacing units will be "absorbed" by either the Harding field or the Estes field, or both.

Something Afoot?

Updates

April 28, 2013: in the post below, I opine that agreeing to collect taxes, Amazon will benefit. It's counter-intuitive, but it is what it is. Now, tonight, I see that others now agree. The story is in the New York Times about how collecting sales tax is no longer an issue.

Original Post

This is a huge story, the story linked down below about the massive distribution centers going up in California. There are a lot of story lines. There are dots to connect, data points that have been bouncing around for the past couple years:

• the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have been growing over the past couple of years (for newbies), south of Los Angeles, there is a huge natural harbor, San Pedro Harbor; inside this harbor are the two ports, but to the casual observer, it's hard to separate the two; they are "side-by-side" (quay-by-quay?)
• a large port was planned on the west coast of Mexico; south of LA; not sure of the status
• on-line shopping
• shopping malls losing their appeal
• starting about a year ago, started seeing stories about US manufacturers bringing overseas factories back to the states
• energy renaissance in the US
• Asia booming; Europe in recession, but worse, Eurozone in struggle for its life
• LNG/CNG corridors 
• years ago, BNSF and UPR were in a race to get dual tracks from Chicago to Los Angeles; I've long forgotten who won the race (hardly matters any more); and I believe BNSF has triple tracks over the pass

This is the reason this story got me so excited. About one year before the Bakken boom "exploded," a developer put up a string of state-of-the-art warehouses south of the 4-mile corner west of Williston. They were among the nicest warehouse/office buildings that had gone up in Williston in quite some time. They were built on "spec" -- speculation. The developer did not have a buyer. In the autumn of 2011, all of those warehouses were occupied. Either great intuition, luck, or great "insight." I think the latter, based on correct reading of the tea leaves.

Now the linked story that got me so excited.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:

Nestled on the windy plains at the foot of the San Bernardino Mountains, once austere stretches of agricultural land have morphed into the country's most desirable industrial real estate market, and it is growing faster than any other industrial region in the U.S.
Among the many merchants running large-scale operations now are such household names as Amazon.com Inc., Kohl's Corp., Skechers USA Inc., Mattel Inc. and Stater Bros. Markets.

They come for vast warehouses — some are bigger than 30 football fields under one roof — where they can store, process and ship merchandise such as clothes, books and toys to ever more online shoppers and handle the rising flood of goods passing through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The clamor for these big buildings is so intense in San Bernardino and Riverside counties that developers are erecting more than 16 million square feet of warehouses on speculation, meaning they are gambling that buyers or renters will rush forward to claim the buildings by the time they are complete.

From wiki:

In the mid-20th century, with the rise of the suburb and automobile culture in the United States, a new style of shopping center was created away from downtown. Mall construction in America was encouraged by the accelerated depreciation laws of 1954, which incentivized greenfield development on the urban fringe. A second stimulus came from legislation passed in 1960, which allowed investors to band together in REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) to avoid corporate income taxes. The laws helped to shape the familiar exurban landscape of malls, motels and fast food chains.

When you read stories like the one in the LA Times about massive distribution centers, one begins to wonder if we aren't moving to a huge new phase in the US. Again, from wiki:

In the mid-1990s, malls were still being constructed at a rate of 140 a year. But in 2001, a PricewaterhouseCoopers study found that underperforming and vacant malls, known as “greyfield” and “dead mall” estates, were an emerging problem. In 2007, a year before the crash, no new malls were built in America, for the first time in 50 years. A mall in Salt Lake City which opened in March 2012 was the first to be built since then.

I think folks can connect the dots, make up their own story to explain all this, write their own narrative. That's pretty straightforward.

What is not straightforward is this: what was the tipping point? Why distribution centers now? What changed?

I think you can go back to the story that was posted September 15, 2012: Free ride is over: Amazon.com collecting California sales tax.

Amazon.com was holding itself back by not putting distribution centers in California. By not having a physical presence in California, Amazon.com argued it did not have to collect California state taxes. That gave the company an advantage, but it finally ended.

Amazon.com is the recognized leader in on-line retailing/distribution.

It did not have a physical presence in California; that way it could get away without charging California sales tax.

When they finally had to start paying California sales tax, they were "free" to build distribution centers in California (not paying taxes gave them a leg up on the competition).

Once they (Amazon) started building massive distribution centers in California, the competition was forced to follow. These massive distribution centers by Kohl's, Sketchers, etc. were bound to happen at some point as the US retail model shifts from shopping malls to on-line, home-delivery (OLHD).

But when Amazon moved in, the other retailers knew they didn't want to be last. And the race was one.

The tipping point? Amazon paying California sales tax. As long as they stayed out of state, other retailers could delay similar plans.

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A Note To The Granddaughters

The post didn't have much (anything?) to do with the subject line, "something afoot?"  I changed the story line once I started writing, but I left the subject line as is. There may still be another story to write.

The general tone on CNBC with the market rally is that the consumers are burned out, this rally won't last, the market is headed for another correction. That may be accurate.

Wow, it is fun to blog. In a minute you will see why.

So, anyway back to the story line: the general tone on CNBC with the market rally is that the consumers are burned out, this rally won't last, the market is headed for another correction. That may be accurate. But the linked story above about the massive distribution centers in southern California certainly suggest something different. But I'm sure CNBC could find a negative aspect to that story. "Are they at risk to southern California wildfires. If a warehouse burns would it push the US into recession? Are these warehouses too big to fail?"

I can honestly say that listening to CNBC, when I do, is generally depressing. So much angst, so much news posted in a negative light. But have you noticed that when CNBC's California correspondent, Jane Wells, comes on, the whole tone brightens? She is almost always filmed outside (in fact, I don't recall any inside shots) where there is bright sunshine, at most a light breeze, and almost never any precipitation. And even when reporting bad news, when Jane Wells reports it, it doesn't seem so bad (wow, I hope they never bring her to New York; if anything they need to bring Erin Burnett out to California and let Jane and Erin, or Erin and Jane, have their own business news show).

In California there seems to be only two type of news: a) bad news, and that is about 90% foreclosure-related; and, b) nutty news, and that is about 90% bullet-train-related.

And this is why blogging is so much fun. I wanted to make sure I had her name correct. I see Jane Wells graduated with honors from the University of Southern California. My alma mater. Whoopee.

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It never rains in southern California:
It Never Rains In Southern California, Albert Hammond

I can honestly say, at this moment in time, there's no place I would rather be than in southern California. Preferably in 1972.