Wow, wow, wow, wow! From April 25, 2023 -- just yesterday:
McDonald's
recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
headline: McDonald's revamp is paying off; net income rises 63% in 1Q23; link here;
taking customers (and money) away from competitors
MCD (stock) has traded at record highs this month (April, 2023)
broad restructuring and laying off "hundreds" of workers
reducing "some" employees' compensation packages
I had a Big Mac meal on Saturday this past weekend
that was the first time I've been to McDonald's in a year (?) -- that I can recall -- it's possible it's been longer
I was surprised how costly the meal was; I did not "up-size" it -- kept it at "medium-size" -- was just under $9
my expectation: a $5-handle, and significantly less than $6
I guess I've been under the Geico rock
Now this, link here. Exactly my thoughts as I posted above, yesterday:
I really, really that Big Mac meal yesterday, the first McDonald's visit in a very, very long time, but when a McDonald's meal trends toward $12, that pretty much means the end of my visits except once in a blue moon.
From the linked article:
McDonald's had a juicy first quarter, but fat sales and profits aren't guaranteed this year as consumers begin to push back on higher prices for things like Big Macs and fries.
"We are seeing in some places resistance to pricing, more resistance than we saw at the outset," McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski warned on the company's Tuesday earnings call.
McDonald's said it's seeing "pressure" on its key units per transaction measure.
That means the typical cost-conscious McDonald's customer is balking at higher menu prices.
As a result, they may be buying a hamburger — but not getting a side of fries. Or those with a little more cash in their pockets could be buying more premium McDonald's dinner items — but leaving out a dessert.
But then, most Americans could afford a few less fries.
I haven't had a beer in ages. Until this past week: yesterday I had an IPA at the Lazy Dog restaurant next door to our apartment complex. It was awesome. I was going to have a Sunspanked Red (link here) until I realized it was not an IPA.
I also searched out and found bottled Bitburger Pils.
The only two beers I drink are IPAs and Bitburger Pils. And, an occasional Blue Moon though I don't think I've had a Blue Moon in a month of blue moons. Oh, yes, also, my favorite pre-pandemic beer was Shock Top, but only from the tap. Both Blue Moon and Shock Top are Belgian whites.
July 8, 2021:
the Jake and Marcia wells; see if they've been fracked and when they
were fracked and compare them to the Anna wells in Last Chance oil
field.#36037.
The well:
36037, SI/A, Grayson Mill, Marcia 3-10 5H, Last Chance, t--; cum 223K 2/23; full production profile:
I wonder if analysts are starting to get a better understanding of the Bakken now that we are (2023 - 2000) twenty-three years into the play?
This well was first drilled in mid-2013 and was a mediocre well at first, with an IP-30 of around 26K bbls crude oil, which quickly tapered to 2,000 bbls/30 days one year later. Further decline -- the dreaded Bakken decline -- and it was down to less than a 1,000 bbls / month by early 2018. By early 2022, it looked like a dying well.
It was taken off line 4/22 and then brought back on line 8/22 and had peak production of 10,000 bbls/month (see below). From my perspective, this is a new well ... and already ten years old.
August 27, 3022: 24561 (back on line), 24356 (AB), 24615 (552K), 24357 (back on line).
The well:
24357, 724, Hess, EN-Hermanson 154-93-0235H-3, Robinson Lake, t7/13; cum 220K 2/23; recent production:
December 4, 2022: 19181, second well on two-well pad just completed. After two years, coming back on line 1/23?
The well:
19181, 1,088, MRO, Elk USA 11-17H, Van Hook, t5/11; cum 519K 2/23;
The reason this well was off line was due to fact that its sister well, #37782, was in the process of being completed (fracked). That well is followed here.
Wow, this has been a great week. There are so many articles with regard to the oil companies in which I am interested, it is impossible to keep up.
From an investing point of view, the one thing that keeps me so interested is the "activity." Nothing remains the same. Nothing is static. Oil people love to make deals -- sort of like Trump and real estate -- if they're not making deals they get bored (and probably do crazy things).
I was just talking to someone about this and a certain Bakken company came up in conversation. It has a huge play in the Bakken but the tea leaves suggest that if "the price is right" they will gladly sell. It's a privately held company, and the tea leaves suggest they bought the Bakken assets simply to get them in good shape to sell them, or as they say in real estate, "flip them."
The activity along the Texas / Louisiana coast -- all the export facilities -- LNG and crude oil -- is simply incredible. And both states have a "can-do" attitude and are eager to get projects done.
From an investing point of view, right now, it appears that the yin and yang -- the push and pull -- is whether 2023 or 2024 or 2025 gets us back on track to where we were before 2020, the plague year. So, the bears see every economic data point from a "glass is half empty" point of view while every bull (that would include me) sees every economic data point from a "glass is half full" point of view.
Today's weekly EIA petroleum report was as bullish as it could possibly be and get the price of oil dropped significantly due other economic issues -- principally, the "big" bank that might go under and whether that will lead to more bank failures.
If one has a long enough horizon, much of this doesn't matter.
But wow, when Hess raises its dividend 17% and I don't even catch that -- it's simply amazing how well some bets in the oil patch can pay off. I guess one to ask would be Warren Buffett with regard to OXY.
Sunoco (SUN): raises dividend--> $0.8420 / share, was $0.8255; record date, 5/8/23; paydate, 5/22/23.
Goldman Sachs: buy oil and gas. By Alex Kimani. Betting on China.
Wow, this has been quite the day for Hess. See down below, below the fold. Now this update from oilprice and this is written by Charles Kennedy, my favorite energy contributor on the internet, from the linked article;
Hess Corporation beat Wall Street estimates in its first-quarter earnings report released on Wednesday and added another discovery in offshore Guyana to its production portfolio, though the good news failed to boost share prices in early morning trading.
Despite first-quarter oil prices that were some 20% lower than in 2022, Hess reported Q1 earnings of $346 million, or $1.13 per share, soundly beating analyst estimates of around $1.06 per share.
I was late to the party with regard to Hess. Over the years, I've flip-flopped numerous times regarding Hess, but now it's back on my bucket list from which to add shares to my portfolio. The good news: during all that flip-flopping I never sold Hess, just kept adding shares. The heirs will be happy.
The usual disclaimer applies. This is not an investment site.
From earlier today:
Hess: raises dividend.
A 17% increase. Think about that. If an heiress living on $100,000 /
month, it's now $117,000 / month. Seventeen percent outpaces inflation
... by a lot.
Quick: How Many Transistors On The New Apple M1 Chip In The New Laptops Apple Is Now Shipping? Where Does Apple Go Next? Does Apple Have A New Revenue Stream? Think Tesla, But Not That Thought. Another Thought -- November 22, 2020
Absolutely fascinating. So, where are we?
INTC struggled with 10 nm, couldn't even get to 7 nm, and is now outsourcing its manufacturing to TSM.
Meanwhile. AAPL is at 5 nm and is now ready to ship products with 3 nm.
US crude oil in storage dropped by 5.1 million bbls despite almost everything else remaining unchanged in the US economy. N.B.
where, repeat, where is all that oil going? [to steal a line from an old Columbo show]
XOM just expanded its huge Beaumont refinery
US crude oil in storage, at 460.9 million bbls -- is still only 1% below the five-year average.
someone is noticing -- the refiners -- imports are now more than 8% more than same four-week period last year -- that's one takeaway from this report ... think about that ... the economy is "flat" at best and GDPNow -- today -- suggests a really weakening economy, and yet US refiners are stilll importing lots of crude oil.
yes, I know, not all oil is created equally; see RBN Energy today;
and the numbers suggest the refiners are having trouble keeping up. Look at distillate fuel.
the refiners -- at 91.3% -- solidly over 90% of their operable capacity, and yet ... distillate fuel.
distillate fuel:
farming; and,
US long-haul trucking.
distillate fuel: decreased by 0.6 million bbls and just that tiny bit of decline resulted in a 12% drop in storage compared to same period last year
farming; and,
US long-haul trucking.
propane is doing fine but propane is not needed until the autumn.
jet fuel product supplied was up 3.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Hunter S Thompson would have loved this line, "I'm feeling electric tonight, cruisin' down the coast, goin' about 99."
Tech earnings: coming in particularly and surprisingly good!
NASDAQ up an astounding 143 points.
AAPL up slightly;
NVDA: up 4%; up $10; closing in on its 52-week high;
I've been accumulating NVDA for quite some time now
but one really needs to look at MSFT - up 8% today; up $22. I started building a MSFT position about six months ago. Whoo-hoo.
this is a 52-week high for MSFT; tell me again tech is dead.
And that's the problem: I just don't see beer (BUD) moving like that ... ever. And I don't see it on any list of "great stocks to own."
Hess: raises dividend. A 17% increase. Think about that. If an heiress living on $100,000 / month, it's now $117,000 / month. Seventeen percent outpaces inflation ... by a lot.
Wow, I'm in a great mood. I had planned to do my scheduled investing this week but I am so overwhelmed with other stuff I may have to delay new investing until next week.
Again, overnight my in-box was overflowing, just after emptying it from the other day.So, again, we may or may not get back to these subjects, but here we are. Readers are overwhelmingly responding to my craziness. Thank you.
Residing rent-free in my brain:
Dylan Mulvaney.The story becomes more fascinating everyday. I told a reader yesterday the "dylanmulvaneystory" is a small, small footnote in my life, but overnight, it's become much bigger, an perhaps an "end note" -- one of those longer notes at the end of a non-fiction book. Very possibly the story will become a paragraph in my life, and even a full chapter. We'll see.
One might be surprised to the degree that high school students are paying attention to this story. A lot of this is generational. And much (not all) of the younger generation -- high school, college -- has it right.
Walt Disney says he learned a lot about marketing by driving his teenage daughters and their friends to high school every morning (Burbank, CA). Walt knew he wasn't going to be riding roller coasters thirty years later but his daughters and their daughters would be. I keep coming back to Cyril Connolly's book, Enemies of Promise.
Jolene: link here. Seldom does a "cover" match the "original" but in this case, it's a close call. I give the nod to Miley Cyrus as much as I adore Dolly. Dolly is gracious enough to understand.
BUD: because of the BUD issue I have spent quite a bit of time reading about the recent history of Bud, it's former CEO, it's current CEO, their outlooks, their mission statements, their strategies. Absolutely fascinating. The current CEO of BUD was hand-in-glove with "Heiner" on the inclusivity thing. Fascinating, fascinating story.
A week ago I considered starting a position in BUD, but then quickly changed my mind. Now, after reading more about the CEO's strategy, I'm re-thinking that -- I very possibly could start a position in BUD. It's a small possibility but I am re-considering.
People blowing off BUD as an investing opportunity -- like me -- are missing a much, much bigger story.
The CEO of BUD reminds me of Vicki Hollub, though in the same circumstances, I don't think Ms Hollub would have handled things the same way.
Sway: Dean Martin led me to Camila Cabello. Another incredible story. Between Camilla Cabelo and Michel Doukeris I was up most of the night connecting dots. The southern surge. The investing urge.
Laser-focused on dividends: don't know how I missed this one. Maybe I did, maybe I didn't -- but I don't remember posting this. Hess recently raised its quarterly dividend. By a lot.
Peter Lynch, Apple, Nvidia and Warren Buffett: link here. Again, fascinating.
NVDA: did Peter Lynch mention NVDA? LOL. Tops the list.
Bullish summer? BofA comments. If you sell in May and go away, you're going to have a bad, bad summer. Buy the dip first, and then in May, go away.
So, maybe we'll get back to all these stories and maybe we won't.
********************* Global Warming
Norway throws in the towel on "global warming." Too expensive. LOL. Just as Ford commits to making Norway its number-two market for pick-up trucks. Ford pick-up trucks in Norway? LOL. Link here.
Only two G7 countries of any consequence still mouth the Kyoto protocols:
Biden-Kerry US; and,
Germany.
************************** Back to Investing
Maybe it's time for Tesla to hire two out-of-work, former marketing executives for BUD.
Over the past six months:
BUD, under "Heiner": up a whopping 40%!
TSLA, under Elon: down a whopping 31%!
Later: a reader asked why I picked six months?
I could have picked one year, the result would have been the same. At five years and "max" the result would have been entirely different. Way different. And would have incorrectly and wrongly destroyed "my" thesis -- this is why business schools won't admit folks over the age of 45 -- they have too much insight and world experience -- way more than many of the professors. And like the reader that asked the question, fixed in their thinking. Speaking of which, I liked the Peter Lynch interview this week with CNBC -- he is not fixed in his thinking. But I digress. [By the way, there's another reason business schools don't admit those over the age of 45; it's the same reason medical schools won't admit folks over the age of 45. But that discussion is for another time.]
So the question becomes why did I pick six months as opposed to five years (why I didn't pick "max" is so obvious, it doesn't need to be discussed -- but here's a hint: TSLA is a growth stock; BUD is a value stock).
So, back to why did I pick six months as opposed to five year? Same reason -- TSLA is a growth stock, BUD is a value stock. Nothing has changed, but for investors and traders, comparing a growth stock with a value stock is something an idiot would do, like me. However, having said that, TSLA (like AAPL) has morphed into -- or is morphing into a value stock -- but that's recent and thus six months is about all one can do when comparing BUD with TSLA -- one year is maybe okay, but it's a push.
Someone not noting that speaks volumes ...
But there is a much, much bigger reason for picking six months. And someday I will talk about that, too. But that should also be obvious --- so I'll let readers think about that for awhile.
There's so many other reasons for picking six months, but at some point one needs to move on.
But since I raised the issue of growth vs value stocks, let's compare apples to oranges.
The reader appears to like five-year comparisons:
Molson Coors (TAP): down 18% over five years. Ouch!
BUD: down 34% over five years. Huge ouch. As "Heine" noted, Bud's number one seller (Bud Lite) was a dying brand and it showed.
One year:
Molson Coors (TAP): up 9%.
BUD: up 14%.
Now, that was apples to apples. Let's look at another somewhat same category, retail bottled drink (alcohol vs non-alcohol)
BUD: down 34% over five years. Huge ouch. As "Heine" noted, Bud's number one seller (Bud Lite) was a dying brand and it showed.
KO: up 47%
Now, one year:
BUD: up 14%
KO: down 2%
Enough of this. One could do this all day long. LOL.
It will be interesting to see what the new BUD CEO does over the next five years, assuming he lasts that long (and I think he will).
On another note, and this is why I love to blog. The new CEO of BUD (took the job in 2021) is Brazilian. I have a very, very close Brazilian friend who lives in the apartment complex in which I live. He is a rising star in an international Brazilian company. I assume Rodrigo is very, very familiar with the CEO of BUD. For all I know, they know each other, are friends, and maybe even school mates. Who knows. That does not matter. It gives me another subject to share with Rodrigo. And I can practice a bit of Spanish (Brazilian Portuguese is not that different from Spanish, I assume).
By the way, for the record, with regard to the Bud Lite - Dylan Mulvaney issue, I am on the same page of music as Howard Stern, for what that's worth.
