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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

McDonald's Starting To See Pushback -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44488BE. 

Wow, wow, wow, wow! From April 25, 2023 -- just yesterday:

McDonald's

  • recurrent theme on the blog: inflation doesn't matter (don't take that out of context)
  • headline: McDonald's revamp is paying off; net income rises 63% in 1Q23; link here;
  • taking customers (and money) away from competitors
  • MCD (stock) has traded at record highs this month (April, 2023)
  • broad restructuring and laying off "hundreds" of workers
  • reducing "some" employees' compensation packages
  • I had a Big Mac meal on Saturday this past weekend
    • that was the first time I've been to McDonald's in a year (?) -- that I can recall -- it's possible it's been longer
    • I was surprised how costly the meal was; I did not "up-size" it -- kept it at "medium-size" -- was just under $9
    • my expectation: a $5-handle, and significantly less than $6 
      • I guess I've been under the Geico rock

Now this, link here. Exactly my thoughts as I posted above, yesterday:

I really, really that Big Mac meal yesterday, the first McDonald's visit in a very, very long time, but when a McDonald's meal trends toward $12, that pretty much means the end of my visits except once in a blue moon. 

From the linked article:

McDonald's had a juicy first quarter, but fat sales and profits aren't guaranteed this year as consumers begin to push back on higher prices for things like Big Macs and fries.
"We are seeing in some places resistance to pricing, more resistance than we saw at the outset," McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski warned on the company's Tuesday earnings call. McDonald's said it's seeing "pressure" on its key units per transaction measure.
That means the typical cost-conscious McDonald's customer is balking at higher menu prices.
As a result, they may be buying a hamburger — but not getting a side of fries. Or those with a little more cash in their pockets could be buying more premium McDonald's dinner items — but leaving out a dessert.

But then, most Americans could afford a few less fries. 

By the way, did someone say once in a blue moon?

Quick, who brews Blue Moon?

One of my favorite beers. Link here

I haven't had a beer in ages. Until this past week: yesterday I had an IPA at the Lazy Dog restaurant next door to our apartment complex. It was awesome. I was going to have a Sunspanked Red (link here) until I realized it was not an IPA.

I also searched out and found bottled Bitburger Pils. 

The only two beers I drink are IPAs and Bitburger Pils. And, an occasional Blue Moon though I don't think I've had a Blue Moon in a month of blue moons. Oh, yes, also, my favorite pre-pandemic beer was Shock Top, but only from the tap. Both Blue Moon and Shock Top are Belgian whites.

From Around The Net -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44487W. 

National champs! Our oldest granddaughter is a sophomore at Vanderbilt. Link here

Link here.

But this is what really gets me excited, link here:

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A Musical Interlude

Most incredible. Brings back memories of a most wonderful woman. Link here.

Exhibit A: Bullish On America -- Huge Kudos To Mark -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44486I.  

Ticker: up 12% in one day -- tell me again about the awful earnings season -- wow, it gets tedious

Link here.

The lede


36037 -- Grayson Mill's Marcia Well In Last Chance Oil Field Has Been Completed; Reporting -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44485B.  

The Marcia and Jake show is tracked here.

July 8, 2021
: the Jake and Marcia wells; see if they've been fracked and when they were fracked and compare them to the Anna wells in Last Chance oil field. #36037. 

The well:

  • 36037, SI/A, Grayson Mill, Marcia 3-10 5H, Last Chance, t--; cum 223K 2/23; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20232875167567127773616135451529
BAKKEN1-202328100691021115497222332200966
BAKKEN12-2022227175662811521180501787059
BAKKEN11-2022183026317764847027693721
BAKKEN10-20222465626620101521482514496244
BAKKEN9-20223094579372158531759117381120
BAKKEN8-20222782198586145111652716342111
BAKKEN7-20223115127151322094936492353461003
BAKKEN6-20223017221169812184535208333201761
BAKKEN5-20222923191232043008342324410341155
BAKKEN4-20222023167230372400729114271281865
BAKKEN3-20223128107282453763438608349323525
BAKKEN2-2022282448624339421393424033751352
BAKKEN1-20222414404143163934518422160412296
BAKKEN12-20212724811246177682730658290161632
BAKKEN11-20210000000

24357 -- Hess -- EN-Hermanson -- Robinson Lake -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44483B.  

I wonder if analysts are starting to get a better understanding of the Bakken now that we are (2023 - 2000) twenty-three years into the play?

This well was first drilled in mid-2013 and was a mediocre well at first, with an IP-30 of around 26K bbls crude oil, which quickly tapered to 2,000 bbls/30 days one year later. Further decline -- the dreaded Bakken decline -- and it was down to less than a 1,000 bbls / month by early 2018. By early 2022, it looked like a dying well.

It was taken off line 4/22 and then brought back on line 8/22 and had peak production of 10,000 bbls/month (see below). From my perspective, this is a new well ... and already ten years old.

August 27, 3022: 24561 (back on line), 24356 (AB), 24615 (552K), 24357 (back on line).

The well:

  • 24357, 724, Hess, EN-Hermanson 154-93-0235H-3, Robinson Lake, t7/13; cum 220K 2/23; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202328904690291214411985102801705
BAKKEN1-202331979397521283612412106891723
BAKKEN12-202229886088841255711504100301474
BAKKEN11-20223010097100951488412425112351190
BAKKEN10-2022311066110652203111272812386342
BAKKEN9-2022277419739633551112110444677
BAKKEN8-2022174689450217924082222186
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-202220624000
BAKKEN4-20221483931721281253
BAKKEN3-20221134736612238429886
BAKKEN2-202228667642370882721161
BAKKEN1-202261761806330926643

Updating MRO #19181 -- Elk USA -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44482B.    

December 4, 2022: 19181, second well on two-well pad just completed. After two years, coming back on line 1/23?

The well

  • 19181, 1,088, MRO, Elk USA 11-17H, Van Hook, t5/11; cum 519K 2/23

The reason this well was off line was due to fact that its sister well, #37782, was in the process of being completed (fracked). That well is followed here.

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202328163114862586142413384
BAKKEN1-20234927615976526
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20220000000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-20220000000
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20211771770
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-202100600000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-202121109711921841294113727
BAKKEN7-20213118961924632183191411
BAKKEN6-20213016451618101189916850
BAKKEN5-202125139213731151444121755
BAKKEN4-2021221095113696118395873
BAKKEN3-202131167417142181793148287
BAKKEN2-2021281573151810017331366149
BAKKEN1-20213117911775121201417715
BAKKEN12-2020311689168159184816374
BAKKEN11-20203017521757811901163080
BAKKEN10-20202911951222781374116180
BAKKEN9-202030185220061072106185529
BAKKEN8-2020311968169526927881837733
BAKKEN7-2020223024481300451240176
BAKKEN6-202029130013461150189417086
BAKKEN5-20203119821946862894258556
BAKKEN4-20203019032095157269524338
BAKKEN3-202031197419351992500216177
BAKKEN2-2020291938181416723171852210
BAKKEN1-2020311927202812223431601475
BAKKEN12-2019311842187817223041302708
BAKKEN11-2019302041194919924831228956
BAKKEN10-2019312120207116924781753415

37782 -- An MRO Spencer Three Forks Well -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44481B.   

The well:

  • 37782, loc/A, MRO, Spencer USA 11-17TFH, Van Hook, t--; cum 289K 2/23; full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2023288783886092791621115459147
BAKKEN1-202320544958907908932474841398
BAKKEN12-20222663786070575813165114531178
BAKKEN11-202230101201017585112034619462159
BAKKEN10-20223110604106209880225392177210
BAKKEN9-2022301155411686101152269420563733
BAKKEN8-20223112716123571165125140216621951
BAKKEN7-20223113658140831200025853242230
BAKKEN6-2022301562915160124142751525199532
BAKKEN5-2022311893618839149253321930586513
BAKKEN4-20222817650182601555727143224122796
BAKKEN3-20222924731256002095437115307623759
BAKKEN2-2022282641426399228143462131739144
BAKKEN1-20223130605302113145433619304650
BAKKEN12-202131288132775934895284732634793
BAKKEN11-2021303172631884397773065028143296
BAKKEN10-2021181514014189177951163010188299

Enerplus With Three New Permits; Energy Sector Is "Cheapest" Of All Eleven US Market Sectors; Current P/E Of 6.7 -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44480B.   

Wow, this has been a great week. There are so many articles with regard to the oil companies in which I am interested, it is impossible to keep up.

From an investing point of view, the one thing that keeps me so interested is the "activity." Nothing remains the same. Nothing is static. Oil people love to make deals -- sort of like Trump and real estate -- if they're not making deals they get bored (and probably do crazy things). 

I was just talking to someone about this and a certain Bakken company came up in conversation. It has a huge play in the Bakken but the tea leaves suggest that if "the price is right" they will gladly sell. It's a privately held company, and the tea leaves suggest they bought the Bakken assets simply to get them in good shape to sell them, or as they say in real estate, "flip them."

The activity along the Texas / Louisiana coast -- all the export facilities -- LNG and crude oil -- is simply incredible. And both states have a "can-do" attitude and are eager to get projects done. 

From an investing point of view, right now, it appears that the yin and yang -- the push and pull -- is whether 2023 or 2024 or 2025 gets us back on track to where we were before 2020, the plague year. So, the bears see every economic data point from a "glass is half empty" point of view while every bull (that would include me) sees every economic data point from a "glass is half full" point of view. 

Today's weekly EIA petroleum report was as bullish as it could possibly be and get the price of oil dropped significantly due other economic issues -- principally, the "big" bank that might go under and whether that will lead to more bank failures. 

If one has a long enough horizon, much of this doesn't matter. 

But wow, when Hess raises its dividend 17% and I don't even catch that -- it's simply amazing how well some bets in the oil patch can pay off.  I guess one to ask would be Warren Buffett with regard to OXY.

Sunoco (SUN): raises dividend--> $0.8420 / share, was $0.8255; record date, 5/8/23; paydate, 5/22/23.

Goldman Sachs: buy oil and gas. By Alex Kimani. Betting on China. 

Bullish summer! BofA

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $74.42.

Natural gas: $2.117.

Three new permits, #39853 - #39855, inclusive:

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Eagle Nest (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits to drill three wells, the Jade, the Yak, and the Wildebeest, lot 4 section 36-149-95; 
      • to be sited 157 FSL and between 1515 FWL and 1585 FWL.

The Great News Coming Out Of Hess Continues -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44478B.  


Wow, this has been quite the day for Hess.
See down below, below the fold. Now this update from oilprice and this is written by Charles Kennedy, my favorite energy contributor on the internet, from the linked article;

Hess Corporation beat Wall Street estimates in its first-quarter earnings report released on Wednesday and added another discovery in offshore Guyana to its production portfolio, though the good news failed to boost share prices in early morning trading.
Despite first-quarter oil prices that were some 20% lower than in 2022, Hess reported Q1 earnings of $346 million, or $1.13 per share, soundly beating analyst estimates of around $1.06 per share.
I was late to the party with regard to Hess. Over the years, I've flip-flopped numerous times regarding Hess, but now it's back on my bucket list from which to add shares to my portfolio. The good news: during all that flip-flopping I never sold Hess, just kept adding shares. The heirs will be happy.

The usual disclaimer applies. This is not an investment site.

From earlier today:

Hess: raises dividend. A 17% increase. Think about that. If an heiress living on $100,000 / month, it's now $117,000 / month. Seventeen percent outpaces inflation ... by a lot.

Apple, TSM, 3 NM Chips, And All That Jazz -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44477T. 

Chips, semiconductor
: link here.

Quick: How Many Transistors On The New Apple M1 Chip In The New Laptops Apple Is Now Shipping? Where Does Apple Go Next? Does Apple Have A New Revenue Stream? Think Tesla, But Not That Thought. Another Thought -- November 22, 2020


Absolutely fascinating. So, where are we?

INTC struggled with 10 nm, couldn't even get to 7 nm, and is now outsourcing its manufacturing to TSM.  

Meanwhile. AAPL is at 5 nm and is now ready to ship products with 3 nm.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Pay Attention To The Distillate Fuel Numbers -- Mentioned Before -- Becoming More Apparent -- GDPNow -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44475B. 

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here

  • US crude oil in storage dropped by 5.1 million bbls despite almost everything else remaining unchanged in the US economy. N.B
    • where, repeat, where is all that oil going? [to steal a line from an old Columbo show]
    • XOM just expanded its huge Beaumont refinery
    • US crude oil in storage, at 460.9 million bbls -- is still only 1% below the five-year average.
  • someone is noticing -- the refiners -- imports are now more than 8% more than same four-week period last year -- that's one takeaway from this report ... think about that ... the economy is "flat" at  best and GDPNow -- today -- suggests a really weakening economy, and yet US refiners are stilll importing lots of crude oil. 
    • yes, I know, not all oil is created equally; see RBN Energy today;
    • and the numbers suggest the refiners are having trouble keeping up. Look at distillate fuel.
    • the refiners -- at 91.3% -- solidly over 90% of their operable capacity, and yet ... distillate fuel.
  • distillate fuel:
    • farming; and,
    • US long-haul trucking.
  • distillate fuel: decreased by 0.6 million bbls and just that tiny bit of decline resulted in a 12% drop in storage compared to same period last year
    • farming; and,
    • US long-haul trucking.
  • propane is doing fine but propane is not needed until the autumn.
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 3.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.

After the report, WTI dropped another 1.25%.

Bottom line: oil traders betting on a recession.

June 23, 2023: WTIBrent.

**********************************
GDP Now

Not good. Huge drop.

Link here.

Catching Up -- Part 2 -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44474I. 

First things first: link here.

Hunter S Thompson would have loved this line, "I'm feeling electric tonight, cruisin' down the coast, goin' about 99."

Tech earnings: coming in particularly and surprisingly good!

  • NASDAQ up an astounding 143 points.
  • AAPL up slightly; 
  • NVDA: up 4%; up $10; closing in on its 52-week high;
    • I've been accumulating NVDA for quite some time now
  • but one really needs to look at MSFT - up 8% today; up $22. I started building a MSFT position about six months ago. Whoo-hoo. 
    • this is a 52-week high for MSFT; tell me again tech is dead.

And that's the problem: I just don't see beer (BUD) moving like that ... ever. And I don't see it on any list of "great stocks to own."

Hess: raises dividend. A 17% increase. Think about that. If an heiress living on $100,000 / month, it's now $117,000 / month. Seventeen percent outpaces inflation ... by a lot.

Times have changed:

  • 2019: ESG and DEI in "every" mission statement
  • 2023: not so much.

Bullish summer! BofA. See video above.

Bond anthem! Done "right" this could be a Bond/007 anthem. Link here. The "Euro-pop" would need to be updated to "Bond-glam."

Catching Up -- Part 1 -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44473C.  

Wow, I'm in a great mood. I had planned to do my scheduled investing this week but I am so overwhelmed with other stuff I may have to delay new investing until next week.

Again, overnight my in-box was overflowing, just after emptying it from the other day.So, again, we may or may not get back to these subjects, but here we are. Readers are overwhelmingly responding to my craziness. Thank you.

Residing rent-free in my brain

Dylan Mulvaney.The story becomes more fascinating everyday. I told a reader yesterday the "dylanmulvaneystory" is a small, small footnote in my life, but overnight, it's become much bigger, an perhaps an "end note" -- one of those longer notes at the end of a non-fiction book. Very possibly the story will become a paragraph in my life, and even a full chapter. We'll see.
One might be surprised to the degree that high school students are paying attention to this story. A lot of this is generational. And much (not all) of the younger generation -- high school, college -- has it right.
Walt Disney says he learned a lot about marketing by driving his teenage daughters and their friends to high school every morning (Burbank, CA).  Walt knew he wasn't going to be riding roller coasters thirty years later but his daughters and their daughters would be. I keep coming back to Cyril Connolly's book, Enemies of Promise.

Jolene: link here. Seldom does a "cover" match the "original" but in this case, it's a close call. I give the nod to Miley Cyrus as much as I adore Dolly. Dolly is gracious enough to understand.

BUD: because of the BUD issue I have spent quite a bit of time reading about the recent history of Bud, it's former CEO, it's current CEO, their outlooks, their mission statements, their strategies. Absolutely fascinating. The current CEO of BUD was hand-in-glove with "Heiner" on the inclusivity thing. Fascinating, fascinating story. 

A week ago I considered starting a position in BUD, but then quickly changed my mind. Now, after reading more about the CEO's strategy, I'm re-thinking that -- I very possibly could start a position in BUD. It's a small possibility but I am re-considering.
People blowing off BUD as an investing opportunity -- like me -- are missing a much, much bigger story.
The CEO of BUD reminds me of Vicki Hollub, though in the same circumstances, I don't think Ms Hollub would have handled things the same way.

Sway: Dean Martin led me to Camila Cabello. Another incredible story. Between Camilla Cabelo and Michel Doukeris I was up most of the night connecting dots. The southern surge. The investing urge.

The song: link here.

******************************
The Investing Page

Huge day for investors: Microsoft. Hess.

Laser-focused on dividends: don't know how I missed this one. Maybe I did, maybe I didn't -- but I don't remember posting this. Hess recently raised its quarterly dividend. By a lot.

Peter Lynch, Apple, Nvidia and Warren Buffett: link here. Again, fascinating.

NVDA: did Peter Lynch mention NVDA? LOL. Tops the list

Bullish summer? BofA comments. If you sell in May and go away, you're going to have a bad, bad summer. Buy the dip first, and then in May, go away.

So, maybe we'll get back to all these stories and maybe we won't. 

*********************
Global Warming

Norway throws in the towel on "global warming." Too expensive. LOL. Just as Ford commits to making Norway its number-two market for pick-up trucks. Ford pick-up trucks in Norway? LOL.  Link here.

Norway says it's "temporary." Like "transitory" inflation. LOL. 

Only two G7 countries of any consequence still mouth the Kyoto protocols:

  • Biden-Kerry US; and,
  • Germany.

**************************
Back to Investing

Maybe it's time for Tesla to hire two out-of-work, former marketing executives for BUD.

Over the past six months:

  • BUD, under "Heiner": up a whopping 40%!
  • TSLA, under Elon: down a whopping 31%!

Later: a reader asked why I picked six months?

I could have picked one year, the result would have been the same. At five years and "max" the result would have been entirely different. Way different. And would have incorrectly and wrongly destroyed "my" thesis -- this is why business schools won't admit folks over the age of 45 -- they have too much insight and world experience -- way more than many of the professors. And like the reader that asked the question, fixed in their thinking. Speaking of which, I liked the Peter Lynch interview this week with CNBC -- he is not fixed in his thinking. But I digress. [By the way, there's another reason business schools don't admit those over the age of 45; it's the same reason medical schools won't admit folks over the age of 45. But that discussion is for another time.]

So the question becomes why did I pick six months as opposed to five years (why I didn't pick "max" is so obvious, it doesn't need to be discussed -- but here's a hint: TSLA is a growth stock; BUD is a value stock). 

So, back to why did I pick six months as opposed to five year? Same reason -- TSLA is a growth stock, BUD is a value stock. Nothing has changed, but for investors and traders, comparing a growth stock with a value stock is something an idiot would do, like me. However, having said that, TSLA (like AAPL) has morphed into -- or is morphing into a value stock -- but that's recent and thus six months is about all one can do when comparing BUD with TSLA -- one year is maybe okay, but it's a push. 

Someone not noting that speaks volumes ... 

But there is a much, much bigger reason for picking six months. And someday I will talk about that, too. But that should also be obvious --- so I'll let readers think about that for awhile.

There's so many other reasons for picking six months, but at some point one needs to move on. 

But since I raised the issue of growth vs value stocks, let's compare apples to oranges.

The reader appears to like five-year comparisons:

  • Molson Coors (TAP): down 18% over five years. Ouch!
  • BUD: down 34% over five years. Huge ouch. As "Heine" noted, Bud's number one seller (Bud Lite) was a dying brand and it showed. 

One year:

  • Molson Coors (TAP): up 9%.
  • BUD: up 14%.

Now, that was apples to apples. Let's look at another somewhat same category, retail bottled drink (alcohol vs non-alcohol)

  • BUD: down 34% over five years. Huge ouch. As "Heine" noted, Bud's number one seller (Bud Lite) was a dying brand and it showed.
  •  KO: up 47%

Now, one year:

  • BUD: up 14%
  • KO: down 2%

Enough of this. One could do this all day long. LOL.

It will be interesting to see what the new BUD CEO does over the next five years, assuming he lasts that long (and I think he will).

On another note, and this is why I love to blog. The new CEO of BUD (took the job in 2021) is Brazilian. I have a very, very close Brazilian friend who lives in the apartment complex in which I live. He is a rising star in an international Brazilian company. I assume Rodrigo is very, very familiar with the CEO of BUD. For all I know, they know each other, are friends, and maybe even school mates. Who knows. That does not matter. It gives me another subject to share with Rodrigo. And I can practice a bit of Spanish (Brazilian Portuguese is not that different from Spanish, I assume). 

By the way, for the record, with regard to the Bud Lite - Dylan Mulvaney issue, I am on the same page of music as Howard Stern, for what that's worth. 

******************************
Google Trends

Link here.