Catching Up -- Part 1 -- April 26, 2023

Locator: 44473C.  

Wow, I'm in a great mood. I had planned to do my scheduled investing this week but I am so overwhelmed with other stuff I may have to delay new investing until next week.

Again, overnight my in-box was overflowing, just after emptying it from the other day.So, again, we may or may not get back to these subjects, but here we are. Readers are overwhelmingly responding to my craziness. Thank you.

Residing rent-free in my brain: 

Dylan Mulvaney.The story becomes more fascinating everyday. I told a reader yesterday the "dylanmulvaneystory" is a small, small footnote in my life, but overnight, it's become much bigger, an perhaps an "end note" -- one of those longer notes at the end of a non-fiction book. Very possibly the story will become a paragraph in my life, and even a full chapter. We'll see.

One might be surprised to the degree that high school students are paying attention to this story. A lot of this is generational. And much (not all) of the younger generation -- high school, college -- has it right.

Walt Disney says he learned a lot about marketing by driving his teenage daughters and their friends to high school every morning (Burbank, CA).  Walt knew he wasn't going to be riding roller coasters thirty years later but his daughters and their daughters would be. I keep coming back to Cyril Connolly's book, Enemies of Promise.

Jolene: link here. Seldom does a "cover" match the "original" but in this case, it's a close call. I give the nod to Miley Cyrus as much as I adore Dolly. Dolly is gracious enough to understand.

BUD: because of the BUD issue I have spent quite a bit of time reading about the recent history of Bud, it's former CEO, it's current CEO, their outlooks, their mission statements, their strategies. Absolutely fascinating. The current CEO of BUD was hand-in-glove with "Heiner" on the inclusivity thing. Fascinating, fascinating story. 

A week ago I considered starting a position in BUD, but then quickly changed my mind. Now, after reading more about the CEO's strategy, I'm re-thinking that -- I very possibly could start a position in BUD. It's a small possibility but I am re-considering.

People blowing off BUD as an investing opportunity -- like me -- are missing a much, much bigger story.

The CEO of BUD reminds me of Vicki Hollub, though in the same circumstances, I don't think Ms Hollub would have handled things the same way.

Sway: Dean Martin led me to Camila Cabello. Another incredible story. Between Camilla Cabelo and Michel Doukeris I was up most of the night connecting dots. The southern surge. The investing urge.

The song: link here.

******************************
The Investing Page

Huge day for investors: Microsoft. Hess.

Laser-focused on dividends: don't know how I missed this one. Maybe I did, maybe I didn't -- but I don't remember posting this. Hess recently raised its quarterly dividend. By a lot.

Peter Lynch, Apple, Nvidia and Warren Buffett: link here. Again, fascinating.

NVDA: did Peter Lynch mention NVDA? LOL. Tops the list. 

Bullish summer? BofA comments. If you sell in May and go away, you're going to have a bad, bad summer. Buy the dip first, and then in May, go away.

So, maybe we'll get back to all these stories and maybe we won't. 

*********************
Global Warming

Norway throws in the towel on "global warming." Too expensive. LOL. Just as Ford commits to making Norway its number-two market for pick-up trucks. Ford pick-up trucks in Norway? LOL.  Link here.

Norway says it's "temporary." Like "transitory" inflation. LOL. 

Only two G7 countries of any consequence still mouth the Kyoto protocols:

• Biden-Kerry US; and,
• Germany.

**************************
Back to Investing

Maybe it's time for Tesla to hire two out-of-work, former marketing executives for BUD.

Over the past six months:

• BUD, under "Heiner": up a whopping 40%!
• TSLA, under Elon: down a whopping 31%!

Later: a reader asked why I picked six months?

I could have picked one year, the result would have been the same. At five years and "max" the result would have been entirely different. Way different. And would have incorrectly and wrongly destroyed "my" thesis -- this is why business schools won't admit folks over the age of 45 -- they have too much insight and world experience -- way more than many of the professors. And like the reader that asked the question, fixed in their thinking. Speaking of which, I liked the Peter Lynch interview this week with CNBC -- he is not fixed in his thinking. But I digress. [By the way, there's another reason business schools don't admit those over the age of 45; it's the same reason medical schools won't admit folks over the age of 45. But that discussion is for another time.]

So the question becomes why did I pick six months as opposed to five years (why I didn't pick "max" is so obvious, it doesn't need to be discussed -- but here's a hint: TSLA is a growth stock; BUD is a value stock). 

So, back to why did I pick six months as opposed to five year? Same reason -- TSLA is a growth stock, BUD is a value stock. Nothing has changed, but for investors and traders, comparing a growth stock with a value stock is something an idiot would do, like me. However, having said that, TSLA (like AAPL) has morphed into -- or is morphing into a value stock -- but that's recent and thus six months is about all one can do when comparing BUD with TSLA -- one year is maybe okay, but it's a push. 

Someone not noting that speaks volumes ... 

But there is a much, much bigger reason for picking six months. And someday I will talk about that, too. But that should also be obvious --- so I'll let readers think about that for awhile.

There's so many other reasons for picking six months, but at some point one needs to move on. 

But since I raised the issue of growth vs value stocks, let's compare apples to oranges.

The reader appears to like five-year comparisons:

• Molson Coors (TAP): down 18% over five years. Ouch!
• BUD: down 34% over five years. Huge ouch. As "Heine" noted, Bud's number one seller (Bud Lite) was a dying brand and it showed. 

One year:

• Molson Coors (TAP): up 9%.
• BUD: up 14%.

Now, that was apples to apples. Let's look at another somewhat same category, retail bottled drink (alcohol vs non-alcohol)

• BUD: down 34% over five years. Huge ouch. As "Heine" noted, Bud's number one seller (Bud Lite) was a dying brand and it showed.
•  KO: up 47%

Now, one year:

• BUD: up 14%
• KO: down 2%

Enough of this. One could do this all day long. LOL.

It will be interesting to see what the new BUD CEO does over the next five years, assuming he lasts that long (and I think he will).

On another note, and this is why I love to blog. The new CEO of BUD (took the job in 2021) is Brazilian. I have a very, very close Brazilian friend who lives in the apartment complex in which I live. He is a rising star in an international Brazilian company. I assume Rodrigo is very, very familiar with the CEO of BUD. For all I know, they know each other, are friends, and maybe even school mates. Who knows. That does not matter. It gives me another subject to share with Rodrigo. And I can practice a bit of Spanish (Brazilian Portuguese is not that different from Spanish, I assume). 

By the way, for the record, with regard to the Bud Lite - Dylan Mulvaney issue, I am on the same page of music as Howard Stern, for what that's worth. 

******************************
Google Trends

Link here.