Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Amazon : Simply Amazing — April 19, 2023

Locator: 44423A.

OEM: $169 and one week delivery. Several clicks; re-enter mailing address and credit card information. Have to find password. 

Amazon: on sale at $144 with 5% cash back for using Amazon card and two-day delivery. Click “buy now” — one click — and process is complete. No password needed because I’m always signed in.

Eight New Permits -- April 19, 2023

Locator: 44422B.

US crude supply in days, link here: 29.7. Had been running more than 30 days.

US gasoline demand, link here.

Two big messages here; geopolitics are changing the world. Again, a reminder that "oils" are not created equal.

A reminder, tag -- Apple bank.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Locator: 44422B.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $78.87.

Natural gas: $2.189.

Eight new permits, #39829 - #39836, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (6); Hunt (2)
  • Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); Smoky Butte (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for six EN-Meiers wells, SWSE 12-154-93; 
      • to be sited 348 FSL and between 2108 FEL and 2283 FEL
    • Hunt Oil has permits for two Smoky Butte wells, lot 2 section 4-159-100; 
      • both to be sited 337 FNL and one to be sited 1736 FEL and the other 1,706 FEL;

Map where Hess proposes to place six new EN-Meiers wells:

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39306, 3,285, Grayson Mill, ONeill 17-20 5H,
  • 39307, 3,318, Grayson Mill, ONeill 17-20 4H,

Five-Day Price Action -- SCHW, BUD, AAPL -- April 19, 2023

Locator: 44421I.

Whoo-hoo! Absolutely predictable.

I can buy new shoes for Sophia!

 On a down day for the market, the past five days for these three.


Seriously, these charts mean nothing to me. I'm an investor with a 30-day-rolling horizon. I do not accumulate shares in two of the three companies displayed above. 

However, having said that, "my" portfolio is now at a record high, due as much to continued, consistent buying/investing month-after-month as to share appreciation. Bonds not for me. EVs not for me. Laser-focused on dividends.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

For The Archives -- Politics -- Dominion, Fox News, DeSantis, Trump -- April 19, 2023

Locator: 44420P.

For the archives.




Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- April 19, 2023

Locator: 44419B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.

  • US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 4.6 million bbls;
  • at 466.0 million bbls, US crude oil inventories are 2% above the five-year average which includes an outlier year, 2020, and possibly another outlier year, 2021; maybe one can do the seven-year average "minus" years 2020 and 2021
    • when I do the math, I get about 3.6% -- US commercial crude oil inventories are about 3.6% above the five-year average excluding the outlier years, 2020 and 2021 
    • I often make simple arithmetic errors, and, it also depends on what month of the years we're talking about
    • from my perspective, oil inventories are in excellent shape for the consumer based on historical norms
    • the US supply measured in days of supply is, for me, a better metric, and that metric suggests anything but bullish for "long oil" investors; last week it was 30.2 days; most recent data 29.7.
  • US crude oil imports: yawn
  • US crude oil refiners operating at 91.0% of their operable capacity; a notable increase over the past several months; gearing up for summer driving season;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million bbls; distillates fuel inventories now 11% below the five-year average, and it would have been even worse if two outlier years (2020 and 2021) were not part of the average;
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 5.4% y/y
  • WTI: following the release of the weekly report, WTI was down 1.6%; down $1.27; trading at $79.59.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI Breaks Below $80 -- Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Locator: 44418B.

Avian flu: link here. But let's keep "using" the price of eggs as the reason we need to fight inflation.  Along with the price of used cars. 

[By the way, eggs are now back to their "normal" pricing at our local Target store. A regional grocer in our area still charges almost double, blaming avian flu -- but obviously taking advantage of the situation.]
[I wonder how Costco is managing the avian flu issue?] But I digress.

 
WTI
: $79.19. Again, predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand: link here.


NOG
: press release. 1Q23 hedging results and capital allocation.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $79.19. [Again, predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand.]

Natural gas: $2.289.

Thursday, April 20, 2023: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter, 292 for the year
38869, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 4-33-28H-144-95,
37475, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14B-23-3H,

Wednesday, April 19, 2023: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 290 for the year
38868, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 4-4-9H-143-95,
38373, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 4B,
37476, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14B-23-1HS, 

RBN Energy: will another big-money deal that XOM to #1 in the Permian?

For a major oil and gas producer, organic growth over time is all well and good. But if you want next-level scale — and the economies that come with it — there’s nothing like cannon-balling into the deep end of the pool with a huge, game-changing acquisition. ExxonMobil has already done that twice — first in 2010 with the $41 billion purchase of XTO Energy, then in 2017 when it bought the Bass family’s oil and gas assets for $6.6 billion. Now it’s said to be poised for another big plunge, and to be eyeing the Permian’s largest E&P, Pioneer Natural Resources. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze a potential deal that would make Exxon the dominant producer in the premier U.S. shale play.

A little history about Exxon and the Permian may be helpful here. In the early 2000s, Exxon was focused primarily on overseas operations, but the onset of the Shale Revolution in the late 2000s convinced the company of the potentially strong production growth offered by U.S. unconventional assets. Its options for entering the shale space were building a business organically over a decade or acquiring an established company to jump-start its expansion. An obvious target was XTO Energy, which since its formation in 1986 as Cross Timbers Oil — a name that later morphed into XTO — had built an impressive portfolio of unconventional natural gas assets across several U.S. plays, including the Barnett Shale, the Haynesville and the Marcellus. Seeing the investment as a springboard to shale development across the U.S. and maybe elsewhere, Exxon bought XTO for $41 billion — $30 billion in stock and the assumption of more than $10 billion in debt — its largest deal since the merger with Mobil Inc. in 1999.