The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): October 2023

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Texas Rangers Lead The Series -- Three Games To One -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45884SPORTS.

Next game tomorrow night, I believe.

Tonight's score:

11 - 5 at the start of the bottom of the ninth;
two runs in the ninth and that was it, 11 - 7

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Halloween

See comments for jackets.

Rambling On Investing -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45883INV.

Earlier I posted by thoughts about blogging about EVs and renewable energy going forward.

Now, some rambling thoughts about macro-economic data.

I will continue to follow macro-economics and will occasionally / link macro-economic data, but this past year, I've realized my attitude with regard to macro-economics has changed significantly. Macro-economic data means almost nothing to me -- not to be taken out of context.

I don't invest in real estate, art, vintage automobiles, 24-year-old Scotch, gold, silver, bonds, -- which pretty much leaves equities. All things being equal, about the only thing that can really affect my personal portfolio now is tax policy -- annual taxes that I pay. Macro-economics affects my portfolio but it affects everyone's portfolio, as does tax policy. I can't do anything about macro-economic data; about the only thing I can affect is my personal taxes.

As you know, I don't time the market and stay fully invested.

I have five buckets of stocks from which I choose -- the various companies might vary a bit and the buckets could change over time. But I have a fairly robust and guaranteed, as much as anything is guaranteed, revenue stream which will go into the market each month.

So, regardless what the macro-economic "charts" show, I'm still building positions. I will sell if things change, but it takes a lot to get me to sell when cost basis trends toward $0 and dividends keep increasing -- which is true for most of my energy companies.

With regard to macro-investing, even the big banks, fund managers, fiduciaries, life insurance companies, and respected analysts can't agree.

After that group (big banks, fund managers, fiduciaries,life insurance companies, and respected analysts) we move into "folks" with political slants -- ZeroHedge, PowerLine, Breitbart, NY Times editorial board, Washington Post editorial board, etc.

Nobel laureates can't even agree on the cause of inflation, yada, yada, yada. And forecasting GDP is so difficult, they do estimates every other day or every other week, depending when data is released.

Everything I've read suggests Buffett and Munger buy when they see good value and don't really pay attention to macro-economic data -- I'm sure they do, but Buffett has said he doesn't watch macro-economic data, but watches for good value. A lot of their decisions are also affected by tax policy -- and with the huge amount of cash they have, tax policy has a huge impact on what Buffett / Munger do and don't do.

Exhibit A:

Back in my early days of investing, back in the early 1980s I suppose, I started building a position in Steris. Working in the medical field, I saw firsthand how much Steris was being bought by hospitals. But then something changed with macro-economic data. I've long forgotten what but it had nothing to do with Steris the company per se, but, regardless, I sold all my Steris, probably in the late 1990s.

This is what I sold back in the 1990s or whenever it was:

Apple: Comparing The M3 Laptops With The M2 Laptops -- Scary Fast -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45882APPLE.

It is impossible to articulate the "jump" from the M2 laptops to the M3 laptops just announced. Maybe this will help.

Again, the M3 laptops are not for "you and me." Their target audience:

Hollywood film industry (directors, producers, editors, cinematographers, animators, etc.)
biomedical researchers; and,
serious gamers and game developers.

My primary laptop, a Macbook Air. If I'm reading this correctly, a "2018" design -- five years old -- and a single core. A single CPU / core. GPUs? I have no idea but probably none, but rather just a graphics card. No unified memory.

Unified memory? Explained here. When you hear Tim Cook say "unified memory," that's codespeak / euphemism for Apple Silicon which has 1000% replaced Intel in Apple computers.

I have an M1 MacBook Air which I bought maybe a year ago when it went on sale for a short period of time. I feel guilty using it because my current Intel-MacBook Air works just fine.

I have no idea why I'm "saving" the M1 MacBook Air but I just hate to quit using anything that is still perfectly good and meets all my needs.

Anyway, enough of that. Look at the M3 laptops vs the M2 laptops.

The M3 family:

As a reminder, prior to the "M3" announcement, earlier this year it was the M2 chip.

If nothing else, compare the huge jump in "unified memory": 8GB vs 128GB. That explains the audible gasp I heard when the Apple spokesman introduced the M3 MAX.

From CNBC:

Apple announced three new chips, all under the broader M3 product banner. The current generation of chips is the M2.
There is an entry-level M3, a 40% faster M3 Pro, and a 250% faster M3 Max chip for AI developers and 3D artists.
Apple says all M3 chips can get up to 22 hours of battery life on a laptop.
The M3 has a 8 core central processing unit and up to a 10 core graphics processing unit.
The M3 Pro has a 12 core CPU and an 18 core GPU.
The M3 Max has a 16 core CPU and as many as 40 cores on its GPU. Apple says it can be used for developing artificial intelligence software.
Apple says that its current-generation GPUs are 1.8 times as fast as the GPUs on the M2 chips.
Apple says its CPU cores on the M3 are 15% faster than M2 CPU performance cores for heavy workloads. The M3 processor is 60% faster than its M1 processor, Apple said.
The new chips are built on a 3 nanometer process, which is currently the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

From social media after the M3 announcement:

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Home page for tech: link here.
The cloud: link here.
Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
Spatial computing: link here.
Generative AI: link here.
Apple Silicon: link here.

Goldilocks Opportunity For Investors — Happy Halloween, 2023

Locator: 45881INV.

From The WSJ.

Cash has rarely been this hot on Wall Street. Financial advisers warn holding too much can burn a hole in your portfolio.

With markets rocky and cash earning 5% or more, investors have boosted their holdings of money-market funds to a near-record $5.6 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute. Both individuals and institutional investors are piling in—asset managers now have roughly one-fifth of their portfolios in money-market funds, State Street data show.

Cash was trash for years on Wall Street, where low interest rates left investors buying every dip, saying there was no alternative to stocks. The prospect of a prolonged period of higher rates has upended that thinking, buffeting both stocks and bonds while increasing the returns offered by some of the safest, shortest-term investments such as money markets. Yet many advisers caution that fees, taxes and inflation all undermine those returns. And one of the biggest costs is opportunity:

By pouring money into cash, investors miss out on potential gains from holding a broad portfolio of stocks, bonds and other riskier investments. “Money-market funds are a rational place to be for the next six months. But over the long term, taking risks pays you more,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.

“Keeping any more than a small allocation to cash in your portfolio, for any longer than the short-term, will ultimately cost you thousands or millions of dollars.” Though often treated as akin to a bank account, the funds differ from normal savings accounts and other cash-like investments, such as CDs. They typically lend cash to banks overnight (backed by Treasurys), park it at the Fed or invest in Treasury bills maturing in a few months. Still, they are considered equivalent to cash because investors generally expect to get their money back whenever they ask. To that end, the funds try to maintain a net asset value of $1 a share.

MPC, EPD Report — October 31, 2023

Locator: 45880INV.

MPC: earnings, strong beat.

EPD: begins four new projects in the Permian. Earnings. Pays 7.6%.

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Texas: Solar Update
Peter Zeihan

Link here.

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Chattajack

Link here for the route.

The back story.

Tennessee River. Paddle boarding, predominately, with some kayaking.

The race: 31 miles. Total distance, 33 miles.

Our daughter's time, this past weekend:

Updating Some Wells Drilled / Completed Back In 4Q21 -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45879B.

This well just went over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

Saturday, November 20, 2021: 30 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 284 for the year:

38082, conf-->drl/drl, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 15K over first eight days; see this note; see this note; full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	30	7136	7129	6114	44403	44403	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	8090	7989	6926	51987	51743	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	8493	8589	7703	58311	58053	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	9281	9353	8616	61089	60836	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	10047	10093	9001	63850	59602	3959
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	11209	11269	9202	71996	71664	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	10924	10699	8369	68157	66327	1548
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	12960	12979	10477	74265	71713	2252
BAKKEN	12-2022	28	11146	11110	7151	63867	61463	2128
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	14441	14422	11253	74509	73460	780
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	16547	16632	12431	85706	85045	390
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	14261	14161	13344	89268	88069	941
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	22185	22191	15109	120769	120113	356
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	23378	23537	17010	99483	96797	2686
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	28022	27797	18677	115692	114274	1418
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	32889	33153	18564	109173	108209	964
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	32096	32137	16652	86840	86699	141
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	49935	49764	23632	123371	122822	549
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	51907	52101	23775	113811	113811	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	58746	58668	27899	127661	127661	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	61042	61012	28899	119074	118877	197
BAKKEN	11-2021	8	14645	14168	4898	27237	27120	117

Thursday, December 30, 2021: 87 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 342 for the year:

36995, conf-->loc/drl-->loc/A/unitized, CLR, LCU Ralph 9-27H1, Long Creek, nice well; t--; cum 132K 8/23;

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	18830	18804	22048	29784	28104	175
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	15997	15985	27080	38949	36959	322
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	15712	15698	25770	26278	26163	114
BAKKEN	5-2023	30	8916	8976	21997	16188	15950	237
BAKKEN	4-2023	25	19313	19271	31076	28426	27521	904
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	28976	29007	50340	38723	36221	2501
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	24280	24194	45367	28599	24137	4461
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	3	218	218	4329	0	0	0

Friday, October 29, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:

37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou, HUGE WELL, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 286K 8/21; see this note; cum 266K 8/22; cum 354K 8/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	4281	4287	2560	7189	7045	144
BAKKEN	7-2023	19	3635	3651	4545	9777	9650	127
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	5991	5998	7358	14713	14520	193
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	5654	5642	8160	13088	12905	183
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	6558	6558	7530	15616	15392	224
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	7260	7262	8852	16397	16190	207
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	6943	6939	8084	13441	13217	224
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	6827	6820	8277	11654	11433	221
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	7431	7440	7784	11624	11429	195
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	8533	8542	4909	15239	15053	186
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	12594	12587	9205	28234	27949	285
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	11865	11869	7397	23695	23379	316
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	12366	12346	8747	27862	27862	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	15	3910	4025	1364	8276	8276	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	24	8773	8743	3613	20564	20564	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	9702	9668	7603	22926	22926	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	8765	8771	8970	8644	8644	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	12210	12215	14522	18453	18453	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	12564	12645	15844	22767	22767	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11748	11659	16523	22974	22974	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	14172	14099	20578	19256	19256	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	6	2170	2212	4332	5654	5654	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	11	5791	5829	6318	9568	9568	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	20353	20346	19161	32419	32419	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	19312	19396	22970	29133	28144	989
BAKKEN	7-2021	27	29953	29954	30684	48117	45812	2305
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	25835	26031	36691	43614	35283	8331
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	63335	63032	105944	116662	102218	14444
BAKKEN	4-2021	2	5326	5259	5288	832	776	56

Tuesday, December 28, 2021: 85 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 340 for the year:

36996, conf-->loc/drl, CLR, LCU Ralph Federal 8-27H, Long Creek, t--; cum 67K 3/23; nice well;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	24483	24473	23648	44479	42707	267
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	26767	26723	31219	75614	73304	642
BAKKEN	6-2023	27	18781	18866	24625	35164	35010	153
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	35176	35192	37889	55936	55119	816
BAKKEN	4-2023	27	32205	32117	39465	44523	43109	1413
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	38735	38759	45928	53094	49661	3432
BAKKEN	2-2023	26	27731	27633	38231	33220	28037	5182
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	3	463	463	4689	0	0	0

Tuesday, November 30, 2021: 42 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 296 for the year:

38268, F/A, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL, Chminey Butte, t--; cum 198K 7/22; cum 307K 8/23; F;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	5080	5123	3828	16437	16264	28
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	5046	5012	4238	17617	17470	10
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	5106	5102	4209	16691	16486	52
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	6173	6175	4240	19775	19569	63
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	6673	6677	4791	20109	19856	106
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	7009	7017	5109	19341	19087	109
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	7381	7412	5124	18246	18066	51
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	9495	9461	5999	19600	19331	116
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	7989	8047	4385	18345	18083	134
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	10025	9998	6196	21973	20969	865
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	11603	11589	7268	22497	22266	95
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	12301	12309	7640	22261	21990	135
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	15117	15150	8968	27308	27156	6
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	18133	18126	9761	30603	30403	57
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	20689	20700	11025	29966	29556	269
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	23464	23435	12743	28948	28622	185
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	21613	21634	11367	24537	24360	42
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	23298	23292	12502	24586	24203	233
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	21329	21352	12680	24857	24684	27
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	30493	30459	18408	32780	32534	90
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	33328	33303	21576	31855	31365	332
BAKKEN	11-2021	9	5761	5671	5323	5044	4280	565

Headline Written By A Robot -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45878B.

Link here.

Article filled with typographical errors.

Germany In Deep Doo-Doo; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today --- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45877B.

Germany: link here -- let this sink in for a minute -- here at the blog, we've been predicting this for quite some time. This article is by Charles Kennedy -- so you know it's good and it's accurate.

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, is set to see a significant drop in oil consumption for 2023 as economic output shrinks, crimping demand for industrial fuels.

With only Pakistan on track for a steeper decline worldwide, Germany is poised to lose 90,000 barrels-per-day of oil consumption.

“Oil product demand, which includes biofuels and direct crude burn, will fall by more in Germany than any other OECD country during 2023. Globally, we think only Pakistan will see a steeper annual decline.” -- Source at link.

Germany’s GDP fell slightly in the third-quarter, shrinking 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, Germany's Q2 GDP has been revised to indicate 0.1% growth, while previous calculations had put it at 0%. Q1 GDP was also revised higher. Germany’s Q4 2022 GDP was down 0.4%.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG. Link here.

WTI: $83.03.

Wednesday, November 1, 2023: 83 for the month; 83 for the quarter, 653 for the year
34544, conf, MRO, Storedale 11-17TFH,
39597, conf, CLR, Brooks 5-9H,
39202, conf, Murex, PB-Paul Brian 1-12H MB,
39201, conf, Murex, PB-Gunner 1-12H MB,

Tuesday, October 31, 2023: 79 for the month; 79 for the quarter, 649 for the year -- Halloween
None.

RBN Energy: fierce opposition, lack of regulatory framework squeeze CO2 pipeline projects.

When Navigator CO₂ Ventures decided to pull the plug on its long-planned Heartland Greenway project, a vast network that would have captured carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from dozens of ethanol producers in the Midwest and Great Plains then piped them hundreds of miles for permanent sequestration, it was a significant setback for the Biden administration’s climate goals. More than that, it showed how large-scale carbon-capture projects face opposition from seemingly all sides and how the lack of a meaningful regulatory framework at the federal level only adds to the industry’s challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the Heartland Greenway cancellation, what it says about the future of similar projects, and what regulatory changes might be needed at the federal level to make large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) a reality.
Ethanol plants are an obvious choice for carbon capture, given that the CO₂ resulting from ethanol fermentation is highly concentrated, which makes capturing it more efficient (and less expensive) compared to many other industrial processes. That was the appeal of the Heartland Greenway project (dashed green line in Figure 1 below), which we first wrote about back in August 2021. One of three projects aimed at capturing emissions from ethanol production, it was ambitious in scope. It would have captured and permanently sequestered CO₂ from a diverse group of industrial customers in five states: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. (Iowa is the top U.S. producer of ethanol, followed by Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and South Dakota.) The project would have helped dozens of ethanol plants finance and construct their CO₂ capture equipment; transported the captured CO₂ over a newly built, 1,300-mile-plus pipeline network; and permanently sequestered up to 15 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of CO₂ at a series of Class VI wells in south-central Illinois (gray oval to bottom-right of Figure 1).

Figure 1. Canceled and Planned Greenfield CO₂ Pipeline Projects. Source: RBN

Much, much more at the link.

Yes, I Would Call This Transitory -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45876ECON.

Link here.

My hunch: the identical chart for used cars.

It was certainly true for eggs.

Holy Mackerel: This Is Stunning -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45875EUROPE.

Link here.

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45874SAUDI.

Link here.

Meanwhile, the US economy surged 4.9% in 3Q23.

And, in Russia, link here:

Bidenomics: The WSJ -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45873ECON.

Link here.

This is probably where some / many / most of my readers reside:

I had a much better "heading" for this blog but my optimism seems to irritate some / many / most of my readers, so I will simply call it "Bidenomics: The WSJ."

From the linked article:

Last week the Federal Reserve revealed that last year the average net worth of American families topped $1 million for the first time, surging 42% from $749,000 in 2019.

Of course, that average is skewed by a small number of billionaires and multimillionaires. Inflation meant real wealth didn’t increase as much. And pandemic-era stimulus boosted asset values, perhaps beyond their fundamental values.

Yet it would be a mistake to therefore conclude that wealth gains are purely a phenomenon of the top 1% and flattered by inflation and asset bubbles.

First, even after inflation, real average wealth was up 23%, according to the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finances, conducted every three years. Second, while the level of median wealth was much lower than the average, it actually rose more than the average between 2019 and 2022—by 37%, adjusted for inflation—to $193,000. That means wealth inequality actually narrowed.

Third, and perhaps most noteworthy, there really are a lot of true millionaires. About 16 million American families—just over 12%—have wealth exceeding $1 million, up from 9.8 million families in 2019. Nearly eight million families are multimillionaires, i.e., their wealth exceeds $2 million, up from 4.7 million.

And the article continues: