Three Permits Renewed; Five Permits Canceled; Four Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported As Completed -- June 9, 2021

From today's daily activity report.

Three permits renewed:

• Petro-Hunt: a Louis Tully Federal permit in McKenzie County;
• XTO: a BGU Wayne permit in Williams County;
• Lime Rock Resources: a Jon R permit in Mountrail County;

Five permits canceled:

• CLR: five Fuller permits in Dunn County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 29377, dr/A, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-7, Baskin, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 192K 4/21;
• 29378, dr/A, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-8, Baskin, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 207K 4/21;
• 29379, dr/A, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-9, Baskin, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 105K 4/21;
• 29505, dr/A, Whiting, Denowh 31-29-3H, Glass Bluff, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 47K 4/21;

"Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" -- CLR With Seven New Permits -- June 9, 2021

Active rigs:

$69.45	6/9/2021	06/09/2020	06/09/2019	06/09/2018	06/09/2017
Active Rigs	20	13	64	61	52

Eight new permits, #38351 - #38358, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (7); Resonance Exploration
• Fields: Chimney Butte (Dunn County); South Westhope (Bottineau)
• Comments:
• Resonance has a permit for a Resonance Wilmot well in SENE section 27-162-80; 1437' FNL and 271' FEL;
• CLR has permits for two Bice wells and five Dolezal wells, all sited in SESW 32-116-95;
• the seven wells will be sited between 537' FSL and 278' FSL and between 2569' FWL and 2643' FEL

With regard to the Bice and Dolezal permits, see this post from May 24, 2021. The graphics from that post:

"Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" -- CLR With Seven New Permits -- June 9, 2021

Wow, I'm in a great mood, but it's gonna take all night to get caught up. If I don't hit a wall, I'll get everything posted but I might not be done until 2:00 a.m. local time. It's now 9:00 p.m. local time, so five hours of blogging. 

It should only take an hour, but,

• Facetime with the one-year-old twins in Portland, OR;
• catching up on tons of e-mail in between blogging; my replies will be awful; sorry;
  
• binge-watching Twin Peaks on Hulu
• re-playing theme song from The Good, Bad, and the Ugly and trying to recall which product uses that theme in its television commercials; I thought Mercedes-Benz; nope -- another company
• typing a long passage from Bettany Hughes' 2005 Helen of Troy
• watching a retrospective on Carrie Fisher; casting Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia was brilliant; George Lucas? A genius. This was her first appearance in a movie. Wow. 
  

As usual, I'll post updates as I go along --

CLR: seven new permits.

Keystone XL: dead. Milestones here. Pipelines were tracked here but over time this pipeline and others became of less interest to me once I understood the issues. From the very beginning, going all the way back to 2013 when first announced, I said the Keystone XL was dead, killed by Obama. Took a long time to finally die. Will talk about it later. 

South Dakota's governor will get her fireworks after all, just a bit later than hoped for but a whole lot bigger. South Dakota's Ellsworth AFB, Rapid City, will be home to the B-21 bomber. Link here. Wiki entry here. Anticipated to enter service by 2026 - 2027. Apparently a couple of the bombers are ready for flight testing. I suppose a one-term president might try to expedite this program to have it in place by November, 2024. According to wiki, on 27 March 2019, Ellsworth was selected as the Air Force Base to host the first operational B-21 Raider bomber unit and the first formal training unit. The other two in the running were Dyess AFB, TX, and Whiteman AFB, MO. What little I know about the USAF any more (and that's very little), Rapid City is best choice of the three. 

Market: SRE, a company I have followed "forever," jumped $4 today, almost 3%; from $135 to almost $140. I haven't seen a reason why yet (I last looked six hours ago) on a day the market was generally flat to negative. SRE "is a $124-stock" as far as I'm concerned. 

The Good, Bad, and The Ugly: quick, what is the name of the theme song or at least the song most associated with that Clint Eastwood movie? For extra credit, there is a commercial that uses that theme song. What product being advertised uses that theme song in its commercial currently making the rounds?

Amazon: when I first started ordering steaks from Omaha Steaks it seemed a) to take ten days or longer for products to arrive; and, b) there was never any free shipping. It certainly appears Amazon changed all that. Although the "free shipping" offered by Omaha Steaks may have pre-dated Amazon, it seems to be much more common, although "free" for Omaha Steaks is nowhere as "good" as "free shipping" from Amazon. But with speed of delivery. wow, I am impressed. I ordered Omaha Steaks for someone else for Father's Day -- I put in the order yesterday, June 8th; it will arrive on Saturday, June 12th. Four days, and the destination is about as far from Omaha as can possibly be and still be in the Lower 48.

Okay, so that's what is on my mind right now. This post would get too long if I went through each of the topics above so I will go to stand-alone posts. 

First, CLR. 

An Ovintiv (Newfield) Jorgenson Federal Well In Lost Bridge Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- June 9, 2021

The well:

• 31138, 2,944, Ovintiv/Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-4HLW, Lost Bridge, t5/17; cum 358K 11/18; cum 541K 4/21; recent production:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	5034	5116	1987	16650	15173	1217
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	5772	5712	2315	17244	15096	1869
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	4713	4776	1488	12920	10064	2630
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	4794	4991	1872	10696	9524	910
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	5947	5501	3377	14409	13959	171
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	5456	5677	2172	11030	10596	174
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	6179	6313	2445	11360	10861	226
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	5533	5366	2873	9331	9017	53
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	6663	6746	2987	9779	9320	189

Idle Rambling -- Early Afternoon Edition -- June 9, 2021

Price of Gasoline

Gasoline seemed to go down in price this past week in our neighborhood, from around $3.79 to $3.59 / gallon. And, if that's accurate, this is why. Today's EIA weekly petroleum report: US crude oil inventories decreased but gasoline inventories increased. 

Gotta love it. Refiners are operating at 91.3% of their operable capacity (trending nicely); for the past several weeks, less than 88%. 

Why is this a surprise? Refiners have transitioned from winter blends to summer blends.

Inflation

Unfortunately I did not catch the screenshot over at twitter but here's a great example with regard to inflation.

Some twit complained that his package of Oreo cookies had increased by a buck ($1.00) "per package" -- undefined. 

Okay.

Forty-eight cookies in a package. $1.00 / 48 cookies = 2 cents a cookie. Are you kidding me? The twit is complaining about a cookie increasing two cents in price. Give me a break.

The best price on-line for Target Oreos, regular, family size, 48 cookies: $3.79. 

$3.79 / 48 = 8 cents per cookie.

If the twit was eating four cookies/day = 12 days of Oreos.

Cut the number of cookies to three cookies/day = 16 days of Oreos. 

$2.79 / 12 = 24 cents/day.

$3.279 / 16 = 24 cents/day.

Daily cost stays the same and the twit might lose some weight and lower his serum cholesterol. Wow, what a win/win. 

By the way, let's compare, it's so simple, package of Oreos, family size, regular, 48 cookies:

• Target: $3.79
• Walmart: $3.67
• Amazon: $3.19

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Driving

Almost every weekday night, our middle granddaughter has soccer practice about 20 minutes down the road. I take her and her mom brings her home. 

Two round trips four nights every week.

Tonight it stops.

Tonight, I will take her and bring her home. I will take my work and a snack and enjoy the outing. 

It's not what a gallon of gasoline costs, it's how much gasoline does one use? 

Weekly US Crude Oil In Storage Dropped 5.2 Million Bbls -- June 9, 2021

Link here.

Weekly EIA petroleum report:

• US crude oil in storage decreased by 5.2 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage now stands at 474.0 million bbls, 4% below the already-fat-five-year average;
• refiners are operating at 91.3% of their operable capacity (trending nicely);
• US imported 6.6 million bbls of crude oil on average each day last week; an increase of 1.0 million bbls from the week before:
• US crude oil imports are averaging about 6.2 million bbls per day, about 2% less than the same four-week period last year;
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.4 million bbls last week but still 5% below the five-year average for this time of the year;
• jet fuel supplied was up 95.1% compared with same four-week period last year;

Inflation Talk -- June 9, 2021

10-Year: 1.486%; down 0.042. 

See comments: a reader sent this "bread vs beer" link. 

88 cents/loaf, fresh, not day-old, not on sale, regular price, June 7, 2021 -- the same bread I ate while growing up in Williston, ND, in the 1950s:

My dad, born and raised in Newell, SD, northwest corner of the state often mentioned he never had a fresh orange or peach while growing up, or if he did, was an incredibly rare event. In his 60s he would reminisce often how much it meant to have a fresh peach even in Williston, ND, decades later. Folks talk a lot about inflation. 

On the other hand, look at what is readily available that many of grandparents, and even parents, did not have. The other day I picked up these items on a quick trip to our local grocery store. I don't recall what I paid, but the beer has not gone up in price as long as I can remember, and, in fact, often goes on sale. 

Fresh strawberries and blueberries were in season and on sale. Bananas at 55 cents/pound and in ample supply. That's apple cider front and center. The pastry was something special, for Sophia's tea party later that day.

****************************
Word of the Day

From Bettany Hughes, Helen of Troy, c. 2005, p. 56:

Kharis is the root of "charisma" and "charismatic" and can simply mean grace or charm. But the original Greek also has a  more sexualized connotation -- a grace which ignites desire.

Kharis was a gift of Aphrodite, the goddess of sexual love. It is that quality of raw seductive power that Helen possessed above all others. The girls who danced at the Platanistas -- led on by the example of their presiding spirit, Helen -- were experiencing a rite of passage that made them beautiful in that they were to become charismatic, sexually mature, and sexually available. For them, Helen was not the most "beautiful" woman in the world, she was the most erotic.

From aminoapps: kharis, from the Greek, the root word for "charismatic."

Kharis is a vastly important topic in Hellenismos. 

At its most basic definition, it means repricocity--giving to the gods in return for their favor and help. The word itself can be translated into English in a myriad of ways, including beauty, charm, favor, grace, and much much. It is also the name of the goddess of grace and beauty.

From theol.com:

The Kharites (Charites) or Graces, were three goddesses of grace, beauty, adornment, joy, mirth, festivity, dance and song. 

A number of younger Kharites presided over the other pleasures of life including play, amusement, banqueting, floral decoration, happiness, rest and relaxation. 

The Kharites were attendants of the goddesses Aphrodite and Hera. 

One named Kharis (Charis) was the wife of Hephaistos (Hephaestus) and another, Pasithea, was married to Hypnos (Hypnus) the god of sleep. 

The three Kharites were depicted in classical art as naked women, holding hands and dancing in a circle. They were sometimes crowned with and held sprigs of myrtle. In Greek vase painting a bevy of younger Kharites form the retinue of Aphrodite.

When I see "Kharites" and "Charites" I wonder if there is a relationship between this Greek word and the English word "charity." A quick google search suggests the link is not "direct." I still wonder.

10-Year Treasury Drops Below 1.5%; Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- June 9, 2021

Updates

Later, 12:18 p.m.: 

Interesting that a blog reader commented that something is going on with activity in the Bakken. 

I enjoy driving and love small towns and rural areas. I spend a minimum of two and often three days a week out of Fargo.

I've also noticed increased oil related traffic on both I-94 and especially I-29. Seems like a lot of pipe on I-29.

I've also noticed a lot of tanker cars stored on sidetracks are gone. Of course I have no definite numbers to back this up but that has been my impression for about three weeks. 

Looks to me that despite liberals' best efforts, fossil fuels are alive and well. 

This is a great country and capitalism is alive and well.

Original Post

From a reader:

I was wondering the same thing (re: price of oil trending up and the timing; Biden's environmental policies).

We are already seeing a lot of movement of oil-related equipment all around us [in the Bakken].

Something is happening.

 *******************************
Back to the Blog

Covid-19 vaccine: US can't get rid of stockpile. Millions of doses of J&N Covid-19 vaccine will go to waste. Link to WSJ. 

The "JNJ pause" was perhaps one of the worst things ever done during this whole thing; there may have been good reasons to pause and take a re-look but the announcement was made Tuesday, April 13, 2021, and by Friday, April 16, 2021, the decision had already been made to return the vaccine to the market. Actual return to market was delayed an additional seven days. How much scientific analysis could actually happen in two full weekdays?

CLNE: up 39% in pre-market trading. Closed at $9.90 yesterday; pre-market, up $13.71.

Campbell Soup: tanks pre-market. Closed at $49.12 yesterday; down 8.43%; down $4.14 in pre-market trading.

10-Year: 1.486%; down 0.042.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Billionaires not paying taxes. Senator Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren? Crickets. 

Aramco bonds: dollar-denominated Islamic bonds debut. Link at Bloomberg. If I recall correctly, some years ago Saudi Arabia threatened to "exit the dollar" completely. Yup, there it is, back in 2015. Saudi is selling bonds to cover the cost of dividends. Wow.

Another shortage? Key iPhone 13 camera component expected to outstrip entire android market.

Buzz: fundamentals to push "oil" back to $12/bbl. Link here.

Permian natural gas pipeline update: shortage resolved. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

US crude oil exports jump to record level: link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$70.45	6/9/2021	06/09/2020	06/09/2019	06/09/2018	06/09/2017
Active Rigs	20	13	64	61	52

Three wells coming off the confidential list -- Wednesday, June 9, 2021:

• 37675, drl/NC, MRO, Etherington USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
• 37379, drl/NC, CLR, Rodney 8-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
• 36848, 1,791, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13, Alkali Creek, t12/20; cum 100K 4/21;
  

RBN Energy:what you need to know about energy markets in one place. 

WTI crude finally closed above $70/bbl yesterday! Yup, change in energy markets is coming at us fast and furious. Whether it’s recovery from COVID, the return of Iranian supply, the changes in OPEC+ production, the majors being walloped by environmentalists, or a genuine upturn in crude prices, the big challenge is keeping up with what’s important, as it happens. That’s what we do at RBN, in our blogs, reports, conferences and webcasts. But many of our readers only know us through our daily blog, which confines us to only one topic each day. What if we had another no-cost service, where we would provide all our available info on energy news, market data, RBN analysis and just about anything that impacts oil, gas, NGLs, refined products, and renewables? Well, we’ve got that now. It’s called ClusterX Energy Market Fundamentals (EMF) channel. It’s an app for your phone or browser. It delivers to you everything our RBN team believes is important as soon as we can get the information into our databases. And all you need to get access to EMF is in today’s blog.

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Initial Production

The well:

• 36848, 1,791, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13, Alkali Creek, t12/20; cum 100K 4/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	14981	15099	10102	20312	20188	124
BAKKEN	3-2021	29	14870	14858	10665	18223	17321	902
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	16116	16191	12835	19305	19305	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	24277	24093	20377	32906	29988	2918
BAKKEN	12-2020	20	29776	29475	18039	33988	29324	4664