What A Great Day -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45442SPORTS.

I couldn't be in a better mood.

Great sports today: women's amateur championship on the west coast. Actually more exciting than the Men's Fedex in Memphis.

Weeknd has a house on the Bel-Air golf course. Whoo-hoo!

Then, we can return to FedEx men's PGA tournament.

Then, perhaps NASCAR? Oh, yes, Indianapolis, Xfinity Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard, 4:30 p.m.  [Later, long rain delay. Two weekends in a row.]

So many stories dropping today. Or at least blogging opportunities.

And at 108°F, too hot to do much outside.

Our older daughter, Sophia's mom, took second place this morning in a paddle boarding tournament southeast of Austin, TX; northeast of San Antonio / New Braunfels. She was still recovering from a mild case of Covid-19. She tested positive this past week, on Monday.

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For The Archives

Daughter, Kiri, with her second-place medal, a 10-km paddle board race outside of Austin, Texas, and then a stop at Buc-ees on the way home. Think about that -- six miles paddle boarding. That's not a small accomplishment.

Slowly, Ever So Slowly, Things Are Starting To Make Sense -- Covid And HLA -- August 19, 2023

Locator: 45441COVID.

The significance of "HLA" popped up during my training back in the late 1970s, early 1980s. Forget exactly when.

HLA -- a genetic "node" on the human chromosome, or multiple "nodes."

HLA-B27: associated with a condition that causes severe back pain. Link here. 

Apparently, it turns out that another HLA "node" is associated with "some type of immunity” from Covid-19. The node: HLA-B15:01.

Researchers had a significant sample size of coronavirus-positive patients with European ancestry to generate meaningful data; there were too few test-positive participants of other ancestries for those results to be significant.

Scientists identified about 1,400 people with European ancestry who had a confirmed positive coronavirus infection in the first year of the pandemic, and all were unvaccinated because shots weren't yet available.

Of that group, 136 were asymptomatic, or roughly 10%. Reasons symptom-free people were tested could include the nature of their job, such as being a healthcare worker undergoing routine testing, or perhaps their family member had been infected and they were considered exposed to the virus.

Significantly, the scientists found that people who had a version of the gene called HLA-B*15:01 were more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic compared with those who didn't,

Hollenbach said. And if a person had two copies of the version of this gene — one from each parent — "they were 8½ times more likely to have remained asymptomatic," Hollenbach said. 

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A Musical Interlude

Whenever I play this video, I have tears. Someday, I'll tell you why, but not today. It's related to the story above. Link here.

Women's Amateur Golf -- On Now -- Four Finalists -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45440SPORTS.

One of the four: Rachel Heck.

Goal: to fly fighters in the USAF.

America: the greatest country in the world

World-class universities in France: four.

World-class universities in the UK: four, maybe.

World-class universities in the US: too many to count. At least four just in northern California. Some you've never heard of.

H Mart Coming To Town -- America: Best Country In The World -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45439TX.

Fastest-growing metropolitan area in the US: DFW -- Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, Frisco, east to Rockwall; west to Roanoke.

Haltom City: just two minutes down TX-121 from our hovel.

Announced this week: 

Link here.

What does this mean: for those in Minnesota, this is like the American Mall moving to our neighborhood.

H Mart Supermarket, link here.

H Mart (Korean: H 마트 or 한아름 마트) is an American supermarket chain of Asian supermarkets operated by the Hanahreum Group, headquartered in Lyndhurst, Bergen County, New Jersey. 

The chain has 84 stores throughout the United States, operated variously as H Mart, H Mart Northwest, and H Mart Colorado; two stores in the Pacific Northwest operate as G Mart. 

It also has stores in Canada and eight in the United Kingdom, including seven locations of Oseyo. 

H Mart is the largest U.S.-based grocery store chain that specializes in Asian-style products and caters to Asian-American shoppers. 

Note: my wife is 1/2 Japanese. The other half: Mexican. And not Tex-Mex. Real Mexican. 

The "H" in "H Mart" stands for Han Ah Reum (한아름), a Korean phrase meaning "one arm full of groceries". This phrase translates more literally to "spreading both arms to cover" or "armful".

For its particular niche, we prefer H Mart to Walmart. 

This is so incredibly wonderful, I'm crying also. The nearest H Mart right now is about 40 minutes away; the new H Mart? Fifteen minutes away.

Link here.

I did not know this -- until now -- but the brand of seaweed is very, very important to the Asians. May's mom, my mother-in-law, would only buy one brand of seaweed.

She also only bought gasoline at LA service stations owned and operated by Japanese families.

Fintech

Locator: 45438INV.

From earlier this morning.

4. Apple banking. How fast did it grow? Think ApplePay.

• to achieve $10 billion: four months, Apple
• to achieve $6 billion: eight years -- repeat, years -- Monzo
• to achieve more then $10 billion: ten years -- repeat, years -- Starling
• Apple: world's biggest fintech disruptor.

Disruptor.

So whom is Apple disrupting? At the top: Visa and Mastercard.

Although perhaps not, simply because Apple Pay simply use's one credit cards -- simply "sitting" / linked on the iPhone.

But let's take a look at the top fintech companies, global: 17 companies ranked, most of which are either based in San Francisco or non-US:

• #17 - #11: Root (a car insurance company); Carta; Paytm (India); SoFi ($8.6 billion; San Francisco); Wise (one of Europe's larrgest and most popular); Brex ($12.3 billion; San Francisco); Plaid ($13.4 billion; San Francisco); 
• #10 - #6: Chime ($25 billion; San Francisco); Robinhood (online discount broker for the younger set); Revolut (crypto; UK, EU); NuBank (Latin America); Klarna (Swedish)
• #5: Square (my hunch: at risk of being swallowed up)
• #4: Coinbase: crypto
• #3: Adyen: $71 billion; Dutch;
• #2: Stripe: $95 billion; founded by Irish siblings; UK; Nigeria -- brilliant
• #1: Ant Financial: $170 billion; largest by far; affiliated with China's Alibaba Group

Largest ten in the US, Forbes:

• Stripe: $50 billion
• Chime: $25 billon
• Ripple: $15 billion
• Blockchain.com: $14 billion
• Plaid: $13.4 billion
• OpenSea: $13.3 billion
• Brex: $12.3 billion
• GoodLeap: $12 billion
• Bolt: $11 billion
• Alchemy: $10.2 billion

As noted earlier, Apple, Inc, sits at $10 billion and growing fast.

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Local Forecast

Some forecasters have Thursday / Friday at 110°F.

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Salad

My go-to lunch on hot summer days: Caprese salad. I can fix a salad in less than five minutes. The "task" that takes the longest: taking the cork out of a new bottle of wine.

We keep fresh basil in the refrigerator, along with fresh mozzarella. Big tomato beefs on the counter, every day.

Five minutes. Three minutes if the wine is already opened.

California red blend, Witching Hour, Livermore and Ripon, California: flavors of dark cherry, blueberries, vanilla, and mocha. None of which I taste -- tastes just like any other red blend. I will test a second glass.

Two "Investing" Links -- Taxes And Retirement -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45438PERSFIN.

Retirement's tricky tax questions: The WSJ. 

What a $5-million-retirement looks like: The WSJ. 

Probably the most accurate data set I've seen regarding this issue:

But this is all Americans, including newborns, I suppose.

We need to see this data by age group, perhaps starting with those 45 and older.

From Yahoo!Finance:

It seems a lot of MAGA folks criticize FDR for social security. Can you imagine the US without that safety net?

I had not / have not seen US Savings Bonds mentioned much recently. That's how I got my start in investing. I don't recall the exact year, but I recall being a student at Wilkinson Elementary School, grades 2 - 6, on the northwest side of town at the time -- I started with $50 bonds bought for $25 sometime before sixth grade.

Our family, at the time, had very, very little discretionary income -- how my mother came up with an occasional $25 to buy a $50-bond is beyond me. I believe I cashed out all those bonds to help pay tuition for my first year of college, Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD. It was an eye-opener to see seven-plus years of diligent saving to be swept away in one afternoon, paying for "part" of my first semester tuition.

But at that time, every little bit helped. 

ICYMI -- This Story Seems To Be Getting Bigger -- Oil Supply - Demand -- 2023 - 2024 -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45437WTI.

Link here.

About six months ago I stopped adding "new money" to oil equities, but when DVN dropped to $50 / share and then to $48 / share, I had little choice but not to add a bit more to the portfolio. Not a recommendation, just a comment. See my disclaimer at the sidebar at the right.

Anthrax In North Dakota -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45436ANTHRAX.

Link here.

Or go directly to The Bismarck Tribune, which may be behind a paywall. 

For the archives:

FRED:

• beef:

 

Closing The Loop On An Earlier Post -- Covid-19 -- Ivermectin -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45435COVID.

This is only being posted to close the loop regarding an earlier post.

Nothing more than that, though PFE is in my Big Pharma bucket for investing.

Link here.

Other links:

• Wuhan flu. The blog. Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.  

• Covid Data Tracker Weekly Review: link here, new.   Covid data tracker: by community, new.

Note: the following two sources have closed shop, shut down. The sites posted their last update following President Biden's announcement that the "emergency" was over, back in May, 2023.

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Conspiracy Theories

By the way, for those who think the ivermectin story was related to a government cover-up, I have two "sources" that without a doubt, corroborate my notes above.

I would post those two "sources" but the better part off valor suggests that I don't. So I won't.

Mark Perry would have a great Venn diagram for this if he were still doing Venn diagrams.

Ivermectin --- Zero Hedge -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45434COVID.

I've lost all interest in this subject. The truth is out there.

But to close the loop. And why it is important from an investor's point of view.

A lot of folks are mis-reading this story. 

The U of M conducted the definitive study.  

The blog caught the story back on October 10, 2021. Today, the blog will post the link to the results of that study.

Links:

• the blog, October 10, 2021:
• the results of the study published in The NEJM, the most prestigious medical journal in the world, August 18, 2022.

The FDA does not prohibit physicians from prescribing "off-label." State licensing boards and other health organizations have responsibility for monitoring / "regulating" physicians. The FDA comments carry great weight but the FDA does not prohibit physicians from prescribing "off-label." The lower court agreed; now in appellate court.

For an investor, why this is important: Pfizer's unexpected strength -- bullish case emerges amid new Covid-19 wave. 

By the way, the blog noted the "new wave" in a blog posted yesterday; not sure if national media has reported on this new wave. Indications are the new wave began in Minnesota - North Dakota? If so, maybe that's why it hasn't caught the attention of ABC, NBC, or CBS yet.

From the blog, October 10, 2021:

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Covid-19 Therapy Randomized Trial

Finally.

A randomized trial sponsored by University of Minnesota, others. Link here.

The study is 14 days of taking the study drugs or placebo pills twice per day. All of these medications are FDA-approved for both adults and children.
You are randomly assigned to 1 of 6 possible treatment groups:

• Metformin (*immediate release)
• Ivermectin
• Fluvoxamine
• Fluvoxamine + Metformin*
• Ivermectin + Metformin*
• Placebo

*There is an FDA recall of metformin extended release, but not immediate release (the kind used in this study). The recall has to do with a substance in the water purification process, not the metformin itself. Ivermectin treatment is only for 3 days, not 14 days.

Apple Update -- August Doldrums -- August 12, 2023

Locator: 45433AAPL.

I don't have time to sort this out, so just some quick notes, some new links.

1. The ARM IPO is going to be huge; lots of history leading up to this. It will be the biggest IPO of the year: four anchors -- Apple, Samsung, Amazon, Nvidia. Google? Let's guess:

• Apple: 20%
• Samsung: 10%
• Amazon: 10%
• Nvidia: 30%
• Google?
• AMD?

2. Era of cheap smart phones over. Apple won this battle. Samsung agrees.

3. GM: $130,000 Escalade (EV) -- won't launch until 2024. Won't have CarPlay (Apple). Deal breaker. GM now backtracking. Says CarPlay possible.

4. Apple banking. How fast did it grow? Think ApplePay.

• to achieve $10 billion: four months, Apple
• to achieve $6 billion: eight years -- repeat, years -- Monzo
• to achieve more then $10 billion: ten years -- repeat, years -- Starling

5. Apple to corner market on 3-nm chip for one year. Huge. Can regulators, governments stop this? Monopoly?

6. After September 12, 2023, wiki will have to make major addition to its chip sites. The A17 chip will need to be added. Perhaps the M3, also.

7. Chips: history of ARM = history of Apple silicon. Should the "A" in ARM stand for Apple?

8. New Apple "analyst" to follow. Jonny (correct spelling) Evans.

9. iPhone 15: only 6GB RAM -- this could be the big story if Apple goes to 8GB RAM. 

10. iPhone took 41% of smartphone revenue 2022. Let that sink in.

Links:

• Hardball.
• Era of cheap smartphones is over. Great news for Apple. But we knew it all along.
• Jonny (correct spelling) Evans.
• Apple silicon (wiki). 
• GM CarPlay: read the replies. Think Dylan and Bud.
• A17. 6GB RAM or 8? Read the comments.
  
• iPhone takes 41% of smartphone revenue in 2022. Margins: 42%?
• Apple: world's biggest fintech disruptor.
• ARM / Apple joined at the hip (wiki).

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.

Does TMDW need to spin-off an Apple blog?