The Civil War In Ukraine Has Been Going On Since 2014; Tens Of Thousands Of Deaths To Date -- February 21, 2022

Updates

February 22, 2022: in response to the original post, a reader noted that "rumors" of ethnic cleansing, which had been ongoing for many years, was apparently much worse this past year; it will be interesting if Bill Maher gets this one right.

Original Post

Posted: 4:25 p.m. February 21, 2022:

• Vladimir Putin has ordered "peacekeeping operations to begin in eastern Ukraine." -- source. 
• Other sources much clearer: Putin has ordered peacekeeping operations to begin.
• President Biden has issued executive order banning any investment in Eastern Ukraine.
• that sent a powerful message -- social media
• safe to go home to Wilmington, DE, tonight to attend to family business that was temporarily delayed.
  
• Also, reports of Russian tanks moving into Donetsk. 
• USAF activity along Ukraine's western border: link here.
• Kiev airport remains open to civilian/commercial traffic.
• WTI-Brent spread widening:
  
• WTI trading at $93.95.
• Brent at $97.40.
  

Original Post

• France's Macron "gets" Putin to agree to a one-on-one with Biden.
• Biden sets conditions. Sounds like Biden not serious.
• Kamala Harris 
• is Biden's point woman on this issue (war in Europe)
  
• along with southern border surge, her hands are full
• sounds like she won't have time to attend official state funerals
• bad things come in threes: the British Queen has Covid
  
• Putin rebuffs.
• Putin says he will decide today whether to "recognize" the breakaway Ukraine states aligned with
• Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk. 
• Russia playing chess; France and the US playing checkers. 

Map of Ukraine, from the BBC: 

Comment: this seems like an easy "fix." If one is entirely unbiased, if one remains entirely logical … what would Mr Spock say … with whom would he roam?

No Daily Activity Report Today; WTI Up Over 2% Today; Closed Above $92 -- February 21, 2022

Ted Turner: biographer speaks for Ted Turner. 

The meme is unchanging: supply won't meet demand this summer. "Everyone" is repeating that data, and the consensus is that oil will reach $100 this summer. Since we're already at $94 getting to $100 is not all that unlikely. Now, this today: Middle Eastern oil nations hike prices as production falters. Link to Gerald Jansen. 

Glad it's over: the Olympics. It sounds like "everyone" agrees.

WTI: gained 2.44% today; up $2.22; closed at $93.29.

Active rigs:

$93.29	2/21/2022	02/21/2021	02/21/2020	02/21/2019	02/21/2018
Active Rigs	33	15	54	66	55

No daily activity report; Presidents' Day.

The Covid Queen Is Being Treated With Ivermectin -- Off-Limits For The Rest Of Us -- February 21, 2022

Refinery fire: the explosion / fire in Garyville, Louisiana -- fourth largest refinery in the US. Link here. In found numbers, the price of WTI jumped about $1.00 after the fire/explosion was reported. More interesting, and occurring before the fire / explosion: the widening between WTI and Brent. 

Walmart dividend: Walmart appears to be "accelerating" its quarterly dividend with a dividend being paid in both March and May, less than two months apart. This is simply a "calendar-thing." In fact, Walmart will be paying the same number of quarterly dividends this year as every previous year. Link here.

Ukraine:

• France's Macron "gets" Putin to agree to a one-on-one with Biden.
• Biden sets conditions.
• Putin rebuffs.
• Putin says he will decide today whether to "recognize" the breakaway Ukraine states aligned with Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk.
  
• Russia playing chess; France and the US playing checkers. 

Map of Ukraine, from the BBC: 

Comment: this seems like an easy "fix." If one is entirely unbiased, if one remains entirely logical … what would Mr Spock say … with whom would he roam? 

****************************
Word for the Day

Ogygia: the island of Ogygia was where, according to Homer, the nymph Calypso detained Odysseus for seven years.

Calypso was "the" daughter of the Titan Atlas.  

There is little agreement today which "modern" island might be Ogygia.

************************
Crystal Gayle

I don't particularly care for Crystal Gayle in concert (as seen on YouTube) but for hours (?) of easy listening, country music, it would be hard to beat Crystal Gayle as served up by Alexa.

A BR Demicks Dodge Well In Demmick Lake Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 21, 2022

The well:

• 33338, 420, BR, Demicks Dodge 1A MBH-ULW, 4 sections, 62 stages; 10.4 million lbs, all mesh, t12/17; cum 476K 11/20; see this post; cum 484K 5/21; cum 505K 12/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	3253	3221	2422	8350	8081	192
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	3459	3463	2729	8746	8672	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	28	2701	2628	2419	6611	6541	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	2556	2546	2578	6760	6487	203
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2928	2926	2935	6505	6418	10
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2732	2715	4666	7297	7189	31
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1793	1774	5601	5342	5154	114
BAKKEN	5-2021	20	639	624	5174	1896	1521	325
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	6	84	83	443	15	0	0

A BR State Dodge Well In Dimmick Lake Has Just Reported 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumlative -- February 21, 2022

The well:

• 32981, 76, BR, State Dodge 2C TFH, SWSE 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t5/19; cum 384K 11/20;  a 42K month; a huge well; cum 433K 1/21; cum 509K 12/21; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	7850	7768	6814	46706	46585	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	28	8527	8560	7672	45167	45038	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	10904	10909	9171	44927	44770	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	27	10857	10835	8900	37262	37133	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	13512	13511	11631	38649	37847	670
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	11269	11251	11577	31137	31016	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	12559	12535	11705	33517	32919	465
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	12739	12735	13485	33001	30053	2822
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	10420	10471	13177	28037	27901	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	11130	11245	8230	27098	26922	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	7284	8623	3734	7897	7567	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	27	7654	6355	5394	5705	4873	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	1	1	21	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	12	6652	7043	4394	31903	30654	144
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	16847	16490	10210	64330	62011	50
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	17934	17922	14562	60096	55151	2731
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	13213	13387	7946	29289	26922	784
BAKKEN	6-2020	2	1828	1528	1373	5188	2601	2454
BAKKEN	5-2020	7	3476	3612	3213	17569	16761	183

BR's Dodge Wells In Dimmick Lake Showing Production Profiles -- February 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

This well, recently off line, is now back on line:

• 16579, IA/409, BR, State Dodge 11-21H, NWNW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t7/07; cum 206K 10/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 2/20; intermittent since then; t207K 4/21; back on line 10/21; cum 214K 12/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1587	1598	1658	12264	12187	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2252	2457	1980	15282	15208	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2761	2834	2049	10478	10401	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	8	931	652	856	2057	1989	48
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This well now has an IP:

• 34293, loc/NCW-->loc/A, BR, State Double Dodge 1A TFH-ULW, SWSW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t3/21; cum 140K 5/21; cum 155K 12/21; cum 155K 12/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	10117	10015	8518	51200	51067	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	11268	11270	9183	50474	50105	226
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	11299	11336	9436	41604	40836	625
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	13506	13482	10851	46662	46050	452
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	17174	17221	12576	50701	49354	1175
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	18529	18492	14781	47957	47367	406
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	19830	19790	13884	45482	44188	1116
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	19988	19900	15395	46321	43029	3111
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	5823	6100	6540	14907	14574	262
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	27152	26829	16859	45024	44731	0

 This well with a jump in production:

• 32950, 166, BR, State Dodge 2A TFH, SWSE 21-151-96, Dimmick Lake, t5/19; cum 300K 11/20; a 42K well; a huge well; cum 310K 3/21; off line for several months off and on in late 2020 - early 2021; cum 369K 12/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	7849	7790	14767	37662	37564	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	10264	10267	13009	33303	33208	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	10411	10430	12090	26875	26708	74
BAKKEN	9-2021	27	11351	11319	14656	29118	29017	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	13158	13100	15331	24311	24227	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	26	5971	5903	7714	11335	11291	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	69	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	26	5779	5852	5910	14096	14004	0

This well now has production profile (note IP of 0):

• 36315, 0-->drl/NC-->A, BR, State Dodge 1D MBH, SWSW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t2/21; cum 61K 5/21; cum 177K 12/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	11210	11085	7599	68280	68103	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	11586	11602	7308	50526	50382	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	12631	12630	7307	35917	35251	543
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	12061	12088	6496	33717	33149	453
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	20459	20513	9799	49793	48009	1617
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	21843	21819	15496	51927	51306	421
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	25648	25614	13500	54167	52527	1428
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	28373	28440	14115	52929	51091	1623
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	32960	32702	15717	40616	40419	0

This well also showing production profile:

• 36314, drl/NC-->drl/A, BR, State Dodge 1C TFH, SWSW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake; first production, 3/21; t--; cum 69K 5/21; cum 169K 12/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	9904	9801	8917	62320	62158	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	10791	10820	9443	58521	58354	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	12825	12884	9852	48995	48824	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	16573	16526	11108	48589	48403	18
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	19263	19230	11708	41164	40112	912
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	13258	13257	9921	26918	26650	164
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	17133	17149	11005	32136	31170	840
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	24774	24738	15025	42990	41907	907
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	16566	16766	8622	24526	23579	832
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	27718	27388	10851	39203	38948	0

I'll stop there, but one gets the idea.

An Enerplus Persian Cat Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here. 

The well:

• 31130, 2,184, Enerplus, Persian 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 491K 6/21; cum 513K 12/21;
  

CLR's Carus Wells In Cedar Coulee -- What A "Mature" Basin Looks Like -- February 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

These wells are now reporting production:

September 23, 2020: new Carus permit --

• 37854, conf, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; see also #37066, below;

June 1, 2020: new Carus permit --

• 37606, conf, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96, 442 FSL 1466 FWL; probably near #16648, and #21974

UPDATE:

• 37854, conf--.>drl/A, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; first production, 9/21; t--; cum 109K 12/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	37519	37584	32293	53651	50684	2729
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	38398	38362	43857	51392	49046	2128
BAKKEN	10-2021	30	28923	28578	42156	42074	40220	1620
BAKKEN	9-2021	6	4041	3819	9107	4381	4174	162

• 37606, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96, 442 FSL 1466 FWL; first production, 9/21; t--; cum 117K 12/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	33994	34025	23723	51695	48826	2631
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	33045	33423	19764	50353	48044	2091
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	45781	45131	26155	49100	46965	1887
BAKKEN	9-2021	4	4480	4233	2746	4421	4263	113

See huge jump in production:

• 16648, CLR, Carus, Cedar Coulee; 

A Reminder: This Is What A "Mature" Basin Looks Like -- MRO's Monster Wells -- February 21, 2022

Link here.

I wasn't interested in these particular wells so much -- despite how huge they are -- but more interested in the neighboring wells. Some slight production jumps in neighboring wells, but not remarkable. 

So, we move on.

This Is What A "Mature" Basin Looks Like -- February 21, 2021

These wells are tracked here.

Again, all those folks who don't understand what a "mature" basin looks like. 

Note: it's important to realize that due to time constraints, that for every well I post, there are at least another fifty I could be posting. Just saying. 

• 35062, IA/1,018-->A, Enerplus, was SI/NC-->1,018, Enerplus, Leatherback 152-94-33C-28H, Antelope, t9/19; cum 223K 8/20; AL; 42 stages; 10 million lbs; taken off line 9/20; remains off line 4/21; back on line 12/21; cum 237K 12/21;
  

Note: this well was taken off line back in August, 2020. 

Now, look at this, almost eighteen months later, it's back on line, stronger than ever:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	12-2021	29	12225	12130	9112	88586	86448	550
SANISH	11-2021	2	949	915	743	8883	8786	28
SANISH	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2021	0	0	138	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2021	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2021	0	0	36	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2020	21	9967	10046	7106	32791	28565	3338
SANISH	7-2020	30	21892	21702	11601	44744	42337	657
SANISH	6-2020	4	3135	3236	1450	6270	3585	2429
SANISH	5-2020	17	10312	10464	6183	23143	18488	309

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me; A 41x Jump In Production -- February 21, 2022

Folks paying attention have probably noticed all the new permitting activity in Cedar Coulee by Harold Hamm / CLR. 

Perhaps this is why. These wells are tracked here.

The well:

• 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 164K 10/20; cum 168K 6/21; off line 7/21; remains off line 8/21; back on line 10/21; cum 208K 12/21; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	16004	16229	8969	19237	18818	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	20533	20341	19563	22195	21790	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	6	3319	3019	5476	3288	3207	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	100	0	1	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	457	586	117	888	496	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	500	524	82	959	540	0

Cedar Coulee, and this well, is just one mile west of the incredible Oakdale field "owned" by CLR. 

And, of course, that leads us to a sister well in that same section:

• 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; cum 208K 10/20; cum 214K 6/21; off line 7/21; six days in 8/21; may be coming back on line; cum 233K 12/21;

It, too, shows a nice jump in production, just not as remarkable.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	3649	3715	2270	3770	3327	24
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	5351	5516	4845	5173	4688	80
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	5716	5531	4550	5779	5378	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	26	4278	4514	6376	4178	3850	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	6	386	0	5368	527	448	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	2	0	0	1	3	2	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	641	809	197	1014	609	0

So, what's going? 

Most likely, the two pads to the south are now being drilled / completed:

Pad to the west:

• 38677,
• 38676,
• 38675,
• 38674,
• 38673,

Pad to the east:

• 38606,
• 38607,
• 38608,
• 38609,
• 38614,
• 38610,

Which, then, of course, brings us to the Oakdale Whitman wells to the section to the immediate east.

Lo and behold, an old well is off line:

• 17061, IA/664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 504K 9/21; off line 9/21;

Which means the other newly permitted Whitman wells are being completed, but no production data yet.

One may want to take another look at a huge Whitman re-frack:

• 20212, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, huge re-frack, 9/17;  

BAKKEN	12-2019	31	27597	27551	6513	34966	34549	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	27597	27603	7677	30391	29150	843
BAKKEN	10-2019	25	19615	19317	6782	20105	19254	574
BAKKEN	9-2019	27	19458	19758	5932	20956	20086	592
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	27922	27780	10332	29698	29216	65
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	25752	26021	12796	28863	28109	349
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	27902	27908	12903	29790	29389	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	30	27570	27670	11203	28086	25522	2193
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	28427	28258	12486	30086	29312	382
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	28628	28686	14764	31254	30819	23
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	25683	25319	14202	26821	26450	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	16	13734	13601	10128	13831	13628	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	22	16216	16649	9260	18218	16594	1334
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	32050	32060	7982	33651	30774	2503
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	37074	36992	10813	39302	35611	3272
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	36826	36625	14331	38670	34010	4265
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	4731	4441	2378	4621	3785	786
BAKKEN	7-2018	1	67	67	84	4	0	3
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	1	138	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	403	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	16	3239	3127	473	2465	2376	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	19	5486	5631	756	4317	4139	50
BAKKEN	2-2018	25	5310	5088	595	4445	4261	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	10513	10725	1869	8937	8641	50
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	21903	21790	4841	24087	23839	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	19452	19809	5379	19667	18479	968
BAKKEN	10-2017	21	12150	11401	6847	13549	7191	6268
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	1	0	0	2	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	5	380	363	98	115	114	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	6	157	320	0	108	99	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	4	162	170	0	174	0	158
BAKKEN	1-2017	3	158	284	0	154	0	153
BAKKEN	12-2016	2	147	0	0	162	0	146
BAKKEN	11-2016	3	152	184	0	5	0	0