Friday, May 8, 2026

Five New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; Six Permits Canceled; And One DUC Reported As Being Completed -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50759B. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $95.42.

Active rigs: 23.

Five new permits, #42914 - #42919, inclusive; one SWD well not included in those below --

  • Operators: Hess (4); EOG;
  • Fields: Ross (Mountrail); Parshall (Mountrail);
  • Comments:
    • EOG has a permit for another Burke well, SENE 34-155-90; 
      • to be sited 1550 FNL and 435 FEL;
    • Hess has permits for four RS-Jones wells, NWSW 35-156-92, 
      • to be sited 2271 / 2370 FSL and 495 FWL. 

Three permits renewed:

  • Kraken (2):
  • Formenter Operations:

Six permits canceled:

  • Oasis (6):

One producing wells (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40967:

 

The 100-Year Dow -- For The US Investor -- One Continuous, Uninterrupted Bull Market Since 1983 -- Those Downturns Economists Call Recessions Have Been Completely Trivial And Buying Opportunities -- Only Purists Call Them A Break In The Bull Market Since 1983 -- And Most Of Us Are Not Purists -- Post May 8, 2026

Locator: 50758DOW. 

The 100-year Dow -- this may not be exactly accurate but for me it's close enough. 

Folks a lot smarter than I will talk about recessions and/or downturns in the market since -- pick your number -- I'll pick 1983 -- the US has been in one continuous bull market. There have been three significant downturns since 1983 but one can argue that all three were due to black swans in the sense that folks did not forecast those downturns twelve months earlier. 

The Third Industrial Revolution (Digital Revolution) began in the 1970s. While its technological foundations were laid earlier, this era of digitalization was defined by the widespread adoption of computers, microelectronics, and automated production (PLC/robotics) that accelerated rapidly during the late 20th century. 

Query: the third industrial revolution began in the 1970s. But I don't know when / if the third industrial revolution ended according to historians / economists. Regardless, I would argue that unlike the huge gap between the second and the third industrial revolution, the third industrial revolution -- that began in the 1970s -- never ended. It simply morphed into the fourth industrial revolution, the AI revolution. Thoughts? 

Reply


The summary is interesting: not one American in 100 sees much of a difference between the third and the fourth industrial revolution. The average American doesn't know the difference between the "computer" technologies. Computer technology is simply computer technology.
 
It will take many years for the average American to see the difference between the third and the fourth revolution. It is during these "many years" that the "well-educated" / deep reading investors will do incredibly well and the gap between those who are not heavily investing and those who are is going to continue to widen. 
 
It's only going to get better and better, and more and more obvious.  

Alison's Quick Connects -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50757B. 

The links:

ND fracking technology could aid geothermal energy development -- North Dakota Monitor
WBI Energy proposes $68M pipeline to fuel new power station -- McKenzie County Farmer
Applied Digital Secures $300 million bridge loan for ND data center -- TheEnergyMag
Applied Digital exec touts North Dakota energy output in talk over data centers -- KFYR-TV
Sheri Haugen-Hoffart op-ed: What the NDPSC actually regulates in the data center boom -- Williston Herald
Energy and Environmental Research Center lays off 40 due to delays in funding -- Grand Forks Herald
ND Supreme Court orders judge to halt Dutch suit against DAPL pipeline developer -- North Dakota Monitor
Public hearing scheduled May 18 for proposed $791M 26,000 acre wind farm in Morton County -- KFYR-TV
Xcel Energy gains regulatory approval for 420MW natural gas plant in southwest Minnesota -- KIMT3
Public gets an opportunity to weigh in on Xcel Energy's proposed 19% electric rate increase -- KMOT-TV
Last surviving crew member discusses oil discovery near Tioga that changed state's history -- KFYR-TV
North Dakota bill would let candidates, elected officials keep home addresses private -- Bismarck Tribune
Rep. Julie Fedorchak endorses Jill Kringstad for North Dakota Public Service Commission -- KX News
ND Supreme Court hosts an investiture ceremony for newly-appointed Justice Mark Friese -- KFYR-TV
Rob Port: A single-subject rule for amending North Dakota's constitution makes sense -- Fargo Forum
ND attorney general, Ethics Comm. dismissed from lawsuit over political ad law -- North Dakota Monitor
State agencies encourage continued vigilance to prevent aquatic nuisance species -- DWR News Release
Former ND Governor Dalrymple and First Lady Betsy to receive NDSU Honorary Doctorates -- NDSU News
District 2 Republican chair Jerol Gohrick accused of threatening men at work site with a rifle -- KFYR-TV
County denies request for election for recall of City Commissioner Tori Siemieniewski -- Williston Herald
Minot International Airport awarded $3 million in FAA funding for taxiway realignment project -- KX News
Blue Water Development to construct 61-unit shop condo in Williston, alternative to a mall -- Williston Herald
City moves forward on $3.71M Northside Street project, work expected to start June 1 -- Beulah Beacon
Multiple fire departments respond to industrial fire at Leonardite Products facility in Williston -- KFYR-TV
'Beneficial' flames: BLM says prescribed burn at Schnell Recreation Area was a first -- Dickinson Press
Watford City's new all-season trail soon to offer year-round outdoor recreation opportunities -- KX News
City awards CDBG grants to Clients of Youthworks and Minot Commission on Aging -- Minot Daily News
ND to honor fallen police officers with memorial, remembrance caravan will travel Highway 200 -- KX News
Even in North Dakota, drought concerns start to creep in, no longer lone white spot on the map -- AgWeek
Nick Archuleta: Supporting educators means supporting every community in North Dakota -- Fargo Forum
Teacher Appreciation Week ends with a call to action for teacher recruitment in ND -- Public News Service
Dakota Children's Advocacy Center hosts book launch, meet and greet with therapy dog -- Dickinson Press
Minot Public School rebranding, adopting a more modern logo, silver and gold color scheme -- KX News
Dickinson State University celebrates Spring 2026 commencement May 16 -- DSU news release
Youth from Mountrail and Ward counties showcase skills at Communication Arts Contest -- Minot Daily News
Dickinson High School teacher Elisa Kensinger awarded national STEM Research Grant -- Dickinson Press
Oil price plunges, stock markets surge on report the U.S. and Iran are near deal to end war -- NBC News
Interior Secretary Burgum tours oil and gas operations in the Permian Basin and New Mexico -- FirstAlert7
Permian Basin rig count stands at 241, Eagle Ford and Oklahoma holding steady at 43 -- OK Energy Today
ConocoPhillips considers selling Permian assets worth $2 billion, Bloomberg News reports -- EnergyNow
US-backed pipeline proposal targets global reliance on Strait of Hormuz amid Iran threats -- Fox News
Ongoing war in the Middle East puts the future of LNG in the spotlight, AI is driving demand -- Oilprice.com
Average Calif. gas price tops $6.00/gal, diesel near $7.50, state dependent on foreign imports -- Oilprice.com
Will data centers increase your taxes? No, they can actually lower them -- Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Rage against the data center, already more than 70 rejections or restrictions this year -- Robert Bryce
The oil price fiction: U.S. has more levers over the price of oil than any nation on earth -- RealClearEnergy
As affordability crisis deepens, states confront consequences of aggressive climate policies -- EID Climate
Democrats make it clear if they retake power, US energy security will be at risk -- Empowerment Alliance
TC Energy beats Q1 earnings expectations, approves $1.5 billion Columbia Gas expansion project -- MSN
20 Bcf/d of natural gas takeaway capacity coming next year to serve LNG exports -- Natural Gas Intelligence
Lithium oxide deposits in Northern Appalachian region could replace imports for a century or more -- USGS
US Justice Department sues Minnesota over its climate lawsuit against energy companies -- EID Climate
Treasury Dept. 990 overhaul spells trouble for dark money networks funding climate lawfare -- EID Climate

Reading -- The Book Today -- Mercantile Capitalism Vs Industrial Capitalism -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50756CAPITALISM. 

Notes here: link here.

Note below -- the early notes. 

Capitalism and Its Critics, A History: From the Industrial Revolution to AI, John Cassidy, c. 2025. Incredibly good book. 

Highly recommended. 

My early notes

Introduction

Mercantile capitalism vs industrial capitalism 

Chapter 1: William Bolts and the East India Company

Cromford Mill, 1771 -- the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

East India Company founded December 31, 1600. 

  • Williams Shakespeare: 1564 - 1616
  • Sir Henry Neville, died, 1615
    • Between 1598 and 1602, Shakespeare wrote several major plays, including comedies like Much Ado About Nothing (1598), As You Like It (1599), Twelfth Night (1601), and the comedy-problem play All's Well That Ends Well (1601-1602), along with the great tragedy Hamlet (1599-1601) and histories like Henry V (1599) and Henry IV, Part 2 (1598) 

1776: William Bolts, East India Company, US Revolutionary War

Chapter 2: Adam Smith on Colonial Capitalism and Slavery

A really, really good chapter.

Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, the year the thirteen colonies declared their independence. 

Sugar, slavery and Adam Smith 

Mercantile Capitalism vs Industrial Capitalism 

Iran -- so yesterday -- centuries ago: mercantile capitalism focused on trade, controlling routes, and accumulating wealth through buying cheap and selling dear (arbitrage), often with state support for monopolies, while ...

The rest of the world -- the modern world -- for the last 300 years: industrial capitalism shifted focus to mass production, mechanization, factories, wage labor, and profit from selling manufactured goods, emphasizing private enterprise and reinvesting in production efficiency. 

The core difference is trade vs. production, moving wealth from merchants and states to industrialists and private owners of capital.  

Mercantile Capitalism (c. 15th–18th Century)  

  • Focus: Commerce, trade routes, colonies, accumulating bullion (gold/silver). 
  • Wealth Source: Profit from buying and selling goods (arbitrage), tariffs, and monopolies. 
  • Role of State: Strong government intervention, protectionism, granting monopolies (e.g., East India Company). 
  • Labor: Often relied on coerced labor (slavery) in colonies. 
  • Key Activity: Merchants controlled capital and distribution.  

Industrial Capitalism (c. Late 18th–19th Century)  

  • Focus: Manufacturing, mechanization, factory system, mass production. 
  • Wealth Source: Profit from selling mass-produced goods, reinvesting in technology. 
  • Role of State: Decreased intervention (compared to mercantilism), favoring private initiative and open markets. 
  • Labor: Emergence of wage labor and industrial working class. 
  • Key Activity: Industrialists owned means of production (factories) and drove output.  

Key Transition

  • The shift involved capital moving from circulation (trade) to production, driven by technological innovation (Industrial Revolution) and new social structures, making production and industrial growth the primary engines of wealth, replacing state-backed trade monopolies.  

 

A New Meme -- The End Of LDC Fast Pace Of Growth -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50755LDCS.  

Posted earlier

QueryLDC large data centers 25 were canceled this past year, link?  

Reply

QueryWhich states / urban areas are seeing the most community pushback?

Reply 

US large data centers:
  • one month ago: 4,088
  • one month later: 4,258
  • percent new LDCs in one month: a 4% increase
  • number canceled for a full year: 25 / 4,088 = 0.6%
  • so, by one measure, we've decrease ne LDCs by 0.6% over a full year, but increased the number of new LDCs in one month by 4%?

Politics: Virgina -- Yes, Virginia, There Is A Santa Claus -- It's The Virginia State Supreme Court -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50754POLITICS.  

Link here. Huge. 

I'm lovin' it. 

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To Marty Makary -- You're Fired -- s/President Trump

Link here

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The Brits Have Had Enough 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed to fight on to deliver on his promise to bring "change" to Britain after his Labour Party suffered heavy losses in local elections. 

Story here without paywall

MMFs -- Stop The Presses -- MMF Assets Surged -- This Is Not Trivial -- Bespoke Journalism -- IN PROGRESS -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50753MMFS.  

My favorite chart. MMFs. 

Query: MMF May 6, 2026 is this a weekly record a surge of $122 billion?


Price volatility:

This record increase follows a massive $176 billion decline three weeks ago, which was the largest weekly drop ever

Previously reported on the blog.

Bespoke journalism. 

K-Shaped Economy -- Bifurcations, Divergences, Cognitive Dissoance -- In Progress -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50752QCOM.  

Market today:

  • Dow:
  • NASDAQ:

NASDAQ:

  • Mag 7
  • Towering twenty: the five-layer cake

Jobs report:

  • Analyst's expectations:
  • Actual results:

Consumer confidence:

  • what they say:
  • what they see:

Panic:

  • yes: politicians -- consumer confidence worsens
  • no: the wealthy -- the top 10% are doing not just "great," but really, really, really great."

Strait of Hormuz:

  • hope springs eternal:
  • NACHO: 

Energy:

  • what they said:
  • how they're changing: 

US debt: link here. $31 trillion. 

  • current seniors doing great:
  • future generations have much to look forward to 

 

Qualcomm -- We'll Get Back To This Later -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50751QCOM. 

When I get back to this, I hope to address the CNBC "Half-Time" panel's comments on Qualcomm (QCOM) earlier today. 

Devon -- We'll Sort This Out Later -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50750DEVON. 

Statistically I don't have the numbers, but everything suggests operators are getting more enthusiastic about the Bakken -- and it's pretty clear now that WTI is going to be priced significantly higher than anticipated / predicted for the next year, maybe longer. Is there any corroboration for this? 

Announcement: quarterly raise in Devon's dividend -- 

Query: where is devon's concentration in drilling now? 

Reply

Cramer's First Hour --- Friday -- May 8, 2026

Locator: 50749CRAMER. 

DVN: Devon increases it's dividend by 33%; up 8 cents from 25 cents to 32 cents. Story here.

Q just noted that AAPL has hit a new high; up almost $6; up almost 2%.  

Holy mackerel! The open for tech is amazing. Q and Faber are amazed; but Q is more amazed of the two. Faber: "SMH!"

And this is a Friday when a lot of bad stuff can happen over a weekend.  

Thoughts? Earlier this week I said I was terrified of the market. Twenty-four hours of intensive reading -- I'm no longer terrified. I remain fully invested in US equity.  

US firing on all cylinders!

  • jobs report today: number of jobs added last month doubled the expectation!
  • full employment; and,
  • no wage growth. 

By the way, there's a reason that the number of jobs adding exceeded all expectations

  • no one is willing to talk about it because it would give too much credit to Trump and his policies;
  • I won't post my thoughts because I don't like the pushback.

SCCO / GLW: both are going to have great days today.

The new meme: twenty-five proposed LCDs were cancelled this past year. That's accurate but it's a meaningless data point. It's actually good news for many of the hyperscalers.  LCDs are tracked here.

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AI Investing

Like all biological phenomena and revolutions, this current AI revolution will also follow the standard "S" curve.

Point A, about 2023: it had become obvious that one should have began investing heavily in AI by now. Interestingly, the term "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) was coined in 2023 by Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett. He created the nickname to describe a group of seven dominant, high-performing U.S. technology stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. 

Point B, about 2028, will be the last opportunity to continue investing aggressively in AI. The Mag 7 will have greatly expanded by then. One might argue we'll see a resurgence of "a" Nifty Fifty

Between points A and B aggressive investors need to continue aggressively invest in AI, but transition from the Mag7 to the Towering 20

Many of these new twenty companies will be the results of IPOs between now (2026 and 2028).  

Unless there are indications that the growth/excitement of the current AI revolution continues beyond 2030, the investor needs to pivot. And pivot quickly. The market -- certainly the AI market -- could plummet 20 to 25 percent once the average investor sees what is going on. One may already need to consider pivoting from the current Mag 7 to something new.

Between now and then, keep reading everything you can on societal and geo-political changes. The trick will be to anticipate the next Mag 7. My own hunch: pharmaceutical companies that focus on "healthspan expansion" and even, perhaps, "biological age reversal." Beware charlatans.

It's not too late to invest in the current AI revolution, but by next year this time -- maybe sooner --  investing in the current Mag 7 will be challenging -- the real winners (investors) will be those who correctly anticipate the Towering 20 in 2030. Maybe we will see thirty such tickers by 2030 ... "thirty for 2030" --- "30 for 30."

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Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.
  • Longer version here
  • TGIF -- May 8, 2026

    Locator: 50748B. 

    Apple is the story today: let's see if the opening corroborates that?

    • Trump to take two CEOs with him to China -- CEOs of Apple and Nvidia.  

    Jobs report today: number of jobs added last month doubled the expectation!

    • full employment; and,
    • no wage growth. 

    Qualcomm: I spoke too soon. It looks like Qualcomm is the story today.  QCOM is up $12 in futures. 

     Ratio, CPUs : GPUs --

    • one year ago: 1:5
    • this next year: will trend toward 1:1
    • could actually be greater than 1:1

    Traveling: Trump to take two CEOs with him to China -- CEOs of Apple and Nvidia.  

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    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: $94.81.

    New wells reporting today:

    • Sunday, May 10, 2026: 18 for the month, 118 for the quarter, 275 for the year, 
      • 41739, conf, Hess, EN-Rohde-LE-157-94-3625H-1, 
    • Saturday, May 9, 2026: 17 for the month, 117 for the quarter, 274 for the year, 
      • 41844, conf, Hunt Oil, Kandiyohi 159-90-5-17H-2, 
    • Friday, May 8, 2026: 16 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 273 for the year, 
      • 41860, conf, Devon Energy, Finn 13-25F 2H, 

    RBN Energy: refinery capacity creep, falling inventories may limit US crude export surge. Link here. Archived.

    U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025, a mark nearly 1.6 MMb/d higher than 2023, but crude export volumes remained remarkably stable — at or very near 4.1 MMb/d on an annual basis — over the same three-year period. Export terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) could have been sending out much more, as evidenced by the recent, Iran-conflict-related surge to nearly 6 MMb/d, but there’s often been a better, more profitable alternative: running that incremental oil through USGC refineries whose capacities have been increasing in subtle but important ways. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss these “capacity creep” expansion projects and their effect on U.S. crude oil and refined product exports.

    Unsurprisingly, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz upended the generally organized patterns of the international oil trade. In a flash, the waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil production passed was effectively shut down, stranding crude-laden supertankers in the Persian Gulf and shutting down oil and gas production in much of the war-torn region. The effects have been widespread. Dozens of refineries in Asia that depend heavily on crude from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Persian Gulf producers were left to scramble for alternative sources of supply, including the U.S. Some refineries in Europe faced shortfalls too, if not as severe, and also sought out U.S. oil. In addition, large short‑term draws from storage (both commercial storage and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR), driven by higher prices and strong overseas demand, have helped enable a temporary spike in U.S. crude exports, but this is unlikely to be sustainable over the long term.

    U.S. crude exports will likely revert back to previous levels if trends over the last few years hold. U.S. crude output (sum of stacked layers and left axis in Figure 1 below) reached a record 13.6 MMb/d in 2025 and peaked at 13.9 MMb/d in October, according to monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Despite that growth, the share of those barrels headed for export (purple line and right axis) held at about 30% as U.S. refiners appeared to be taking on most of the additional output, gradually increasing domestic crude runs (arrow and orange layer) as export volumes (teal layer) held mostly steady. So far in 2026, production has edged lower from late-2025 levels and RBN expects overall production volumes to remain mostly flat compared to last year, with Permian growth offset by modest declines elsewhere.

    Figure 1. Crude Oil Export Percentage. Source: RBN