Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Market Action Today -- Retail -- Tech -- Economy -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45509INV.

Existential fight: UAW -- "Last Call" on CNBC called it exactly right -- the union sees this as an existential fight for their jobs; the companies see it as an existential fight for their very survival.

Not a fight that can easily be kicked down the road. If this is too big for the companies to solve, the question is how much money does the US government need to put into this EV transition?

Recession, what recession? Look at this! Link here. This is not a "tech" story -- it's a retail story. Bumping average pay -- and no strike.

In Texas, twice as many as last year (the word on the street: to deliver all those Apple Watches and iPhones 15):


Joanna Stern buys an Apple iPhone 15: link here.

TSM: mulls advanced chip packaging facility in Arizona. Link here.

US: tech leaving China; migrating to the US -- Arizona, Texas -- seem to be in the news a lot. It is amazing how quickly China faded. Sort of reminds me of Russia during the Reagan/Gorbachev years.

EVs / UK: British to delay transition. Link here.

UAW strike: link here. This interview / story continued to play out on a day the overall market was down significantly, but both GM and F were up nearly 2.5%. It's just a snapshot in time, but right now, GM and F investors seem to be happy with the way management is working this issue. At the end of the day, neither side can "afford" to lose. If there was a mistake made by either side, it was the "40%-ask" that Shawn Fain demanded. "Everybody" knew that "40%" was a non-starter. The question is whether "20%" is on the table.

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One New Permit; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed; MRO Continues To Report Great Wells -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45508B.

Active rigs: 33.

WTI: $91.20.

One new oil and gas permit, #40209:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has a permit for a Hovland well, NWNE 26-150-99; 
      • to be sited 352 FNL and 2233 FEL;

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38043, 3,358, MRO, Pavlish USA 21-18TFH,
  • 38044, 4,195, MRO, Millie USA 21-18H,
  • 39108, 3,413, MRO, Pugh USA-14-7TFH,
  • 39195, 1,063, CLR, Allen 8-17HSL,
  • 39267, 1,474, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-35 4H,
  • 39269, 3,830, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-35 6H,
  • 39196, 1,207, CLR, Boe State 5-16H,
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Mid-Morning -- Fourth Day -- Market Turns Negative -- GM And Ford Stay Positive -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45507UAW.

Breaking : MSFT increases dividend to 75 cents. Was 68 cents. A ten percent increase? MSFT targeting AAPL’s market value. $2.8 trillion vs $2.4 trillion. Link here. 

Autos: very, very interesting.  

In fact, both the Dow and the NASDAQ are having triple-digit reversals.

And F and GM doing well.

That is all.

Later, late afternoon trading: market falls. Ford and GM each up 2.5%. Link here.

Later, GDPNow unchanged: current estimate, 3Q23 — 4.9%. That much-talked about, long-predicted recession will have to wait another day. But, yes, sooner or later, we will have a recession.

Hurricane season: where art though?

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Fins, CPUs, GPUs, Cores, Threads, All That Jazz -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45506TECH.

One might start to see references to "FinFET" and GAAFET" more often, but in the big scheme of things, entirely unimportant to most of us for the time-being. For me, FinFET and GAAFET become a thing when Tim Cook starts putting the acronyms on his powerpoint presentations.

In other words, ignore this blog (for now).

Link here.

FinFET and GAAFET have nothing to do with heat sinks, at least not directly.

Link here.

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Tech: CPUs, GPUs, cores, threads and all that jazz --

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Apple -- 2-NM -- Chips -- By 2026? September 19, 2023

Locator: 45505AAPL.

Tag: AAPL, Apple, INTC, Intel, TSM, NVDA, Nvidia, AMD.

Absolutely amazing. INTC gave up at 10 nm.

No one noticed that not only did Apple introduce 3-nm chips in the new iPhone 15, it was the first company ever to do this.

And now, Apple Silicon is likely to introduce 2-nm chips in two years.

Link here.

Let's see. AAPL has a market value of $3 trillion.

Is it safe to say:

  • $1 trillion: hardware? Consumer retail?
  • $1 trillion: services and web?
  • $1 trillion: chips?

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

And, oh, by the way:


One can tell from the comments at social media:

  • most don't understand the iPhone 15;
  • most don't understand what is meant by 3-nm and 2-nm any more;
  • everyone compares Apple's rapid ascent to unicorns that don't exist; 
    • right now, no one is innovating as fast as Apple 
    • Apple is only being compared to Apple
    • unless foldable phones are still a thing?
  • more and more it's the big three: Apple, Nvidia, and TSM.
  • and, of course, is anyone competing with AMSL?
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ICYMI: The September, 2023, Dashboards -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45504B.

All three tight plays: increased both oil and gas. Again, in oil, the Bakken, #1. Who-hoo.

EIA dashboards:

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$93.60 -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45503ECON.

Double-dog dare JPow to raise rates:

  • soft landings are nearly impossible under best of circumstances;
  • WTI headed toward $100 -- California's Newsom leading the charge;
  • UAW ready to shut down US manufacturing;
  • and, something else, but I forget -- oh, yeah -- the student loan issue.

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Quiet Time

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Nvidia -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45502INV.

Better? Nvidia or Alphhabet? The Motley Fool link here. For an investor with a 30-year horizon, this is an easy question to answer.

Link here.

Link here to see headline; story blocked by paywall. This is the URL: https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/keep-on-buying-apple-stock-as-initial-iphone-15-pre-orders-look-strong-says-top-analyst.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
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Economy -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45501ECON.

Tea leaves: by this time next week, Ford and GM pretty much completely shut down. JPow likely to raise rates under thhis scenario? LOL.

Bull market, link here.

Another bullish sign, link here:

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New Developments In Bakken Crude Oil Production and Dakota Access Pipeline Drama -- RBN Energy -- September 19, 2023

Locator: 45500B.

Can't top $91: Barron's, September 19, 2023. Link here.

It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $92.64.

Wednesday, September 20, 2023: 99 for the month; 301 for the quarter, 546 for the year
39557, conf, CLR, Fuller 10-2H,
37262, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15H,

Tuesday, September 19, 2023: 97 for the month; 299 for the quarter, 544 for the year
39558, conf, CLR, Fuller 11-2H1,
34033, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 21-16 163-91-B,
34026, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91D,
34025, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91 B,
21535, conf, Formentera Operations, Tafelmeyer C-3625-6490,

RBN Energy: potential project cancellations highlight difficulties for offshore wind.

It’s no secret that the past several months have been challenging for the wind power industry, especially when it comes to offshore projects. Major developers have sought to renegotiate power-purchase agreements (PPAs) signed years ago, delayed work on some projects, and walked away from others, despite severe financial repercussions in some cases. On top of all that, only one of three offshore tracts available in the U.S.’s first Gulf of Mexico lease auction for wind power attracted any bids. It all amounts to a major setback in the Biden administration’s goal for the nation’s electricity to be 100% carbon-free by 2035. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the significant challenges being faced by wind power developers, what they mean for the projects currently under development, and some changes that could eventually help bring more of the renewable power online.

Also, early release: new developments in Bakken crude oil production and DAPL drama. Archived.

A draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) tied to a key water crossing along the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) has finally been completed and made public, thereby ending another chapter in the long-running drama about the ultimate fate of DAPL, which is by far the largest crude oil pipeline out of the Bakken. While the DEIS doesn’t finish the story, the document provides hints about possible outcomes — and an opportunity to review just how important the 750-Mb/d pipeline really is to Bakken producers and shippers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the latest developments regarding DAPL and Bakken production.

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Don’t Get Caught Short — A Non-Story Until It Isn’t — September 18,

Locator: 45499B.

Olive oil. Link here.

And, here.

Now, cocoa and sugar, also.

Word to the wise: stay alert with regard to shortages. Others: rice? Link here.

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Entertainment

First two years: “Only Murders In The Building.”  Favorite show by far. I’m not watching it this season. The series creators jumped the shark as far as I’m concerned. Character development sucks. Biggest disappointment: Meryl Streep. Why? Language: crass, unnecessarily crass. I’m done.

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Sports: NFL MNF

Two games on MNF? Great idea. If one game is a dud, there’s a second game. Are injuries going to be the big NFL story this season?

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