Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Buffett Watch -- Portfolio -- April 24, 2024

Locator: 470626BUFFETT.

There was an interesting data point regarding Warren Buffett on April 22, 2024 -- by Motley Fool, two days ago.

I'm curious if anyone else saw it. 

It is very, very, very subtle but if one follows Buffett close enough it was hard not to miss. 

Hint: compare the Motley Fool article with the Buffett portfolio watch noted dated September 30, 2023. In case that link breaks or disappears, the important note is within this screenshot:

Most recent --

Kiplinger, March 7, 2024, link here.  

From Forbes, February 15, 2024:

Because the 13F does not include international stocks, Berkshire Hathaway initially announced the acquisition of about 5% of five Japanese trading companies at the end of August 2020. These holdings are Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. Ltd., and Sumitomo Corp. Buffett revealed in April 2023 that Berkshire increased its stakes in these companies to 7.4%. Buffett indicated that these were intended to be long-term holdings, and Berkshire may still increase its stake to 9.9%.

Note: if foreign stocks were included in 13F, two Japanese companies would hold positions #9 and #10. 

Top fifteen holdings in the BRK equity portfolio:

It will be interesting if anyone catches this. I'll come back to this later.

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So, Here We Go
This Is What Jumped Out At Me

For the past year or so, or maybe even longer, we keep hearing that AAPL makes up  41% of BRK equity portfolio. So, that 41% stands out -- it's what I remember.

But in the Motley Fool article, the author said Apple accounts for 50% of the BRK equity portfolio.


That was such a huge jump, from 41% to 50%, I wondered if Motley Fool  was "rounding up," That would be very, very unusual for Motley Fool to round up -- certainly that amount. So, I checked, and, indeed, without rounding up, AAPL now makes up 50% of BRK's equity portfolio

Interestingly I have the same problem. Not by design, but completely "by accident" my equity portfolio is way over-weighted with AAPL, but that causes at least two problems:

  • the entire portfolio moves on the volatility of AAPL; and,
  • I lean toward a "growth" portfolio and AAPL is turning the portfolio into a "value" portfolio, and worse,
    • while the rest of the tech space is doing very well, not the same can be said for AAPL.

Bottom line, AAPL, relative to the rest of BRK's equity portfolio, increased in value to the rest of the holdings. Why isn't BRK reacting to that?

In the past year, these have handily beat the money market funds:

  • UNP: up 27% in one year
  • SCCO: up 48%in one year
  • NVDA; up over 206% in one year
  • JPM: up 43% in one year

Confusing:

  •  I find it interesting that BRK is not adding to its AAPL position when shares dip; or,sell some AAPL shares on periodic jumps in the share price. 

BRK does not seem to be an actively managed portfolio.

  • When it comes to BRK, it almost appears the managers have become passive investors, taking very little active interest in managing their equity portfolio. 

More confusing

  • I have not been selling any of my AAPL shares (in fact, I'm adding to my AAPL position on huge pullbacks) but I'm adding "new money" to my equity portfolio. Warren Buffett talks about his "secret sauce," dividends, and it's amazing, at least to me, he's not using that "new money" of balance a portfolio that is clearly no longer a diversified portfolio. 

The BRK equity portfolio. Confusing -- why so many ticker symbols that are so inconsequential?

  • 50% AAPL -- one ticker
  • 42% legacy, energy -- eight ticker symbols
    • BAC: 10%
    • AXP: 8%
    • KO: 7%
    • CVX: 6%
    • OXY: 4%
    • KHC: 4%
    • MCO: 3%
    • DVA: 1%
  • which leaves 8% --  approximately 52 other ticker symbols -- each ticker symbol representing less than 1% of the portfolio and the bottom 10 each representing 0.05% or less
  • nine ticker symbols each represent 0.02% or less
  • what an unusual portfolio; it's almost as if BRK has six or seven low-tier money managers that have their hobby horses and C-suite is letting them do what they want with a handful of tiny holdings.

We can discuss all the reasons why Apple went from 41% to over 50% of the portfolio in dollar value despite the number of shares of AAPL staying the same. I'm not going to do that except to say the reasons were not good, at least in my mind.

I could write a lot more, but I think I will leave it at that. 

13F: link here.

From Forbes, February 15, 2024:

Because the 13F does not include international stocks, Berkshire Hathaway initially announced the acquisition of about 5% of five Japanese trading companies at the end of August 2020. These holdings are Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. Ltd., and Sumitomo Corp. Buffett revealed in April 2023 that Berkshire increased its stakes in these companies to 7.4%. Buffett indicated that these were intended to be long-term holdings, and Berkshire may still increase its stake to 9.9%.

The entire portfolio:

See comments.

Three New Permits; One Permit Renewed -- April 24, 2024

Locator: 470625B.

Gasoline demand, link here

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.66.

Active rigs: 40.

Three new permits, #40693 - #40695, inclusive:

  • Operators: Zavanana (2); Grayson Mill
  • Fields: Stockyard Creek (Williams); South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Zavanna has permits for two Jersey wells, NWSW 22-154-99, 
      • both to be sited 616 FWL, with one 1492 FSL and the other 1522 FSL
    • Grayson Mill has a permit for a Skaar well, NWNE 15-150-99, 
      • to be sited 422 FNL and 1519 FEL

One permit renewed:

  • 20811, BR, Ole 41-26, Haystack Butte, McKenzie County;

What's Holding Back Hydrogen Vehicles? April 24, 2024

Locator: 470624HYDROGEN.

What's holding back hydrogen vehicles?

Link here.

Link here.

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Semiconductors

Nvidia, Tesla, link here:

Investing: Semiconductors

Link here.

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Does anyone really read this stuff?
Unemployment and The Southern Surge

 Link here. The headline:

The facts, from the same article:

The household survey used in the calculation of unemployment relies on a population estimate from the Census as a benchmark, and that estimate is based on the 2022 American Community Survey.

As a result, the labor force should be 1.1 million higher and employment should be 1 million higher, according to Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker. That would increase the unemployment rate slightly, to 3.9% from 3.8%.

OMG: 3.9% vs 3.8%. Oh, give me a break.

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Does Anyone Really Read This Stuff
California's Exit Tax

The headline


Buried deep in the article, this is the tax:The exit tax is 0.4% of an individual’s net worth over $30 million in a tax year, no matter where it’s located -- within California, other states within the U.S. or overseas. This amount is halved to $15 million if a married taxpayer files a separate return to their spouse. This EXIT TAX follows you to another state for up to 10 years.

RBN Energy's Deep Dive Into The Newly Announced DeLa Permian Express Pipeline -- April 24, 2024

Locator: 470623B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • in storage, 3% below the five-year average; after a decrease of 6.4 million bbls;
  • refiners operating at 88.5%
  • jet fuel supplied up 2.4% compared with same period last year

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.90.

Thursday, April 25, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
37519, conf, BR, Mazama 2B MBH,

Wednesday, April 24, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 252 for the year
39869, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 4-5HSL1
39868, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 3-5HSL,

RBN Energy: gauging the promise of the newly announced DeLa Express pipeline. Archived. One of the longest RBN Energy blogs I've seen, it seems. Maybe, maybe not, but it seems really, really long.

Moss Lake Partners has announced plans to build a massive 42-inch pipeline known as the DeLa Express to take up to 2 Bcf/d of wet gas 690 miles from the Permian across the Texas state line into Louisiana.

It’s an audacious plan, and there’s little doubt that a new natural gas pipeline from the Permian to the Gulf Coast is needed to facilitate continued production growth but the proposal faces serious challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how investors, producers and potential shippers might approach this newcomer and gauge whether it’s a project that could go the distance or become just another pipe dream.

97 Wells Transferred From XTO To Chord Energy -- April 23, 2024

Locator: 47062B.

At the sidebar at the right, I keep track of "Bakken deals" on a year basis.

From 2023: Chord-XTO Deal? May 22, 2023 -- link here.

In today's "daily activity report," 97 wells were transferred from XTO to Oasis (Chord Energy). Pretty cool. 

From Houston Bizjournals, May 22, 2023:  


The rest of today's "daily activity report":

WTI: $83.54.

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #40688 - #40692, inclusive:

  • Operators: Slawson, Oasis, Petro-Hunt (3)
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); Bonetrail (Williams); and, Clear Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has a permit for a Fish Finder well, SWSE 21-152-91, 
      • to be sited 877 FSL and 2366 FEL;
    • Oasis has a permit for a Merlin well, SWSE 15-156-101, 
      • to be sited 487 FSL and 2575 FEL;
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for three Wollan Creek wells, SWSE 34-152-96; 
      • to be sited 300 FSL and at 2290 FEL, 2220 FEL, and 2150 FEL

Four permits renewed:

  • BR: two Sandie permits; two Shafer permits, all NWNW 28-151-97, Elidah, McKenzie County;

As noted above, 97 wells transferred from XTO to Oasis (Chord Energy). These are in the heart of the Bakken.

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Chord Energy