Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- October 27, 2016

At National Review, our neutron bomb election.

I was sent the link to this review by several readers.

Many, many comments.

1. The writer of this editorial a) either did not know any of this before she wrote the editorial; or, b) she did know this.

Either she did or she didn't.

If she did not know of any of this before WikiLeaks, she is, hands-down, no question, the winner of the Geico Rock Award for 2016. I can think of only one other past winner who has said something more incomprehensible: "We cannot simply drill our way to low gasoline prices."

If she did know this before WikiLeaks, one has to ask why she waited until the week or two before the election to write it. (Not that it would have made any difference.) But did it require WikiLeaks for this writer of this editorial to learn about the following four items cited in this editorial?

• CNN vice president Virginia Moseley is married to Hillary Clinton’s former deputy secretary at the State Department Tom Nides (now of Morgan Stanley) — suggesting “The Clinton News Network” is not really a right-wing joke.
• Former ABC News executive producer Ian Cameron is married to Susan Rice, a — pre-Benghazi — regular on the Sunday talk shows.
• CBS president David Rhodes is the sibling of aspiring novelist Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser for “strategic communications and Speechwriting,” whatever that fictive title means.
• ABC News correspondent Claire Shipman married former White House press secretary Jay Carney (now senior vice president for “worldwide corporate affairs” at Amazon: not just “corporate affairs” or “worldwide affairs” but “worldwide corporate affairs”).

You and I may not have known all of those (or many others), but that's not our job. It's the job of the media to bring that to our attention, not WikiLeaks.

2. Ninety-nine percent of Americans will never read the editorial at The National Review. Shoot, I'm not sure even nine percent of Americans have even heard of The National Review. The one percent who do read The National Review editorial should already know the facts that were in it, even if the writer did not.

3. What bothers me most: anyone who actually read this editorial (one percent of Americans) and who found this material new or shocking; they, too, are nominees for the Geico Rock Award for 2016.

4. But this is the biggest problem: the analogy to the neutron bomb. From the lede, the first three sentences in full:

• The shells of our institutions maybe survive the 2016 campaign, but they will be mere husks.
• The infamous neutron bomb was designed to melt human flesh without damaging infrastructure. 
• Something like it has blown up lots of people in the 2016 election and left behind empty institutions.

The writer is correct about only one thing, which was expressed in the second sentence: what a neutron bomb was designed to do. Everything else is wrong, dead wrong.

Does anyone really believe:

• that the shells of our institutions will be mere husks after the 2016 election?
• that something like a neutron bomb has blown up lots of people in the 2016 election and left behind empty institutions?

In fact, after the 2016 election, the federal institutions will still be there, and they will be stronger than ever: including but not limited to the EPA, the IRS, DOJ, DOE, HHS, Congress, the Supreme Court, and POTUS (especially if a felon by any other name is elected).

Does anyone seriously doubt that?

After this election, our federal institutions will certainly not be "mere husks."

With regard to the second wrong point, WikiLeaks (which this editorial is all about) did not "blow up" a single individual. If anything, every individual "exposed" by WikiLeaks is stronger than ever (by definition: "that which does not kill us, makes us stronger"). If anything, every individual mentioned in the editorial, starting with the network news anchors, are stronger than ever. (Megyn is asking for a $20 million salary, isn't she? That's more than POTUS will likely earn.)

If I'm wrong, name one individual "exposed" by WikiLeaks whose career has been destroyed and whom we will never hear of again or who might actually go to prison. Nope, not one. Okay, maybe the wiener.

In fact, if Hillary is elected, it will simply be "revolving doors" writ large as deputy directors of federal agencies move to become directors of other federal agencies. In fact, if there are not enough agencies to go around to reward everyone named in WikiLeaks, existing departments will spin off new departments. EPA will spin off a new agency: the Federal Agency of Global Warming. Treasury will spin off a Federal Agency of Debt, thereby moving $19 trillion in debt to a new federal agency, and simply mandate that the US Treasury start over with a clean slate, with a zero balance. The Treasury Department will take in revenue; the Federal Agency of Debt will simply keep a separate set of books, classified ultra-top secret, to be seen only by George Soros. The Federal Reserve will spin off a Federal Reserve Agency for Journalism to post minutes that cannot be interpreted by anyone.

If Trump is elected, the bureaucracy is such he might be able to appoint/move/fire/affect 200 individuals but that leaves about 150,000 entrenched bureaucrats who have learned to survive by showing up to work generally on time, keeping their heads down, and simply waiting out any president. Does anyone really think the Senate will approve any Supreme Court justice appointed by Trump? We've survived the past year with eight justices; we can survive four more (years) without Sarah Palin on the bench.

For me, all WikiLeaks did was start to level the playing field. Prior to WikiLeaks only one or two percent of Americans were in on the joke. Ninety-eight percent of Americans had no clue; some may have had suspicions but nothing "concrete" on which to hang their pitchforks. Now maybe six percent of Americans are in on the joke.

By the way, speaking of jokes, the cruelest joke (and there have been many) in this administration was this which was "revealed" just this past week: $25,000 in 2017 in the US is considered a "modest" income by the folks who brought us ObamaCare. That's why Megyn needs $20 million.

I don't watch network news so I don't know if WikiLeaks has been reported to any extent on ABC, NCB, CBS, CNN, HLN, MSNBC, FOX, etc, etc., but I assume not. Nor do I suspect we will ever see anything from WikiLeaks mentioned on Sixty Minutes.

So, back to the writer of this editorial. If she really was unaware of Caligula's Circus or Nero's Nepotism in Washington, DC, she is the winner of the 2016 Geico Rock Award.

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Updates

October 28, 2016: grifters-in-chief, from The Wall Street Journal; again, it took WikiLeaks to open this reporter's eyes. Wow.

October 28, 2016: most Americans think media is biased. 

Overall, 56 percent of likely voters say the media is biased against Trump, just 5 percent say it's biased in his favor and 37 percent say coverage is mostly balanced.

Eighty-seven percent of Trump's supporters see the media as biased against him, and even Hillary Clinton's supporters are more likely to see bias against Trump than bias in his favor, 30 percent to 8 percent. Sixty percent of Clinton's supporters see no bias in either direction.

Supports my thesis above. At least 54% of Americans are not paying attention. And among Clinton supporters, at least 60% of them, are just like Clinton herself. Delusional.

Another Geico Award Nominee -- October 23, 2016

Updates

Later, 7:36 p.m. Central Time:  see first comment below. I brought it up here to make it browser-searchable.

WSJ seems to be forecasting something that's already happening...aggregate DUCS over the 4 oil basins (ie the Bakken, Niobrara, Permian, and Eagle Ford) have now been lower in each of the last 6 months, as oil well completions started picking up when oil prices first started rising in the spring, while the DUC count in the natural gas regions (the Marcellus, Utica, and the Haynesville) has generally slowly declined since December 2013, as new natural gas drilling fell to record low levels...

• http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=27932
• http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
• graphs here:http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/duc_supplement.pdf

Original Post

 

From the linked article below, the new nominee:  Tim Rezvan.

Tim Rezvan, managing director of Americas research at Mizuho Securities USA Inc., said that while the untapped wells represent a large resource, it will take time to begin pumping them.

“You can’t get those turned on overnight,” Mr. Rezvan said.

I don't know what he means by "overnight," but he's obviously not reading the MillionDollarWay blog. LOL. The production from any DUC completed in the Bakken will show up within 30 days, in the next Director's Cut. In the oil industry, production from a well within 30 days is pretty much "overnight."

From spud to production in the Bakken, we are talking a couple of weeks if the price is right.

From The Wall Street Journal:

U.S. oil and gas companies have drilled thousands of wells they have yet to tap, creating a ready reserve of fuel that could surge onto the market when energy prices recover.
As producers report quarterly earnings over the next few weeks, a question looms: When will they start exploiting these “drilled but uncompleted” wells?

While the industry often has an inventory of drilled wells awaiting completion, the backlog has grown significantly over the past two years as companies like Continental Resources Inc. and EOG Resources Inc. deliberately delayed tapping wells to wait for higher energy prices.

Federal estimates show the number of such wells in the nation’s seven most prolific drilling regions stood at 5,069 in September, up from 3,768 in January 2014, before oil prices began falling.

Because companies have already spent the money to drill the wells, known in the industry as DUCs, bringing on the supply they hold is cheaper than drilling and fracking a new well. That means DUCs are an economic proposition for many companies, especially with U.S. crude now trading at around $50 a barrel.

Ryan Duman, a senior analyst at energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, said he expects to see companies completing many of the delayed wells in the next 18 months.

“You’re at a point where pretty much every DUC that’s sitting out there is in the money,” Mr. Duman said.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that the industry has about 2,000 more wells awaiting completion than it normally would. Those extra DUCs are capable of producing more than 250,000 barrels a day of crude and 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day, the firm estimates. That is equal to roughly half of California’s daily oil output in July and West Virginia’s daily gas production the same month.

Mr. Duman called the untapped resources contained in the DUCs a “meaningful amount of supply” that would have “some implications on commodity prices.”

Many of the DUCs, he added, are located in the Marcellus drilling region of Pennsylvania and the Bakken in North Dakota.

You can see all Geico Award 2016 nominees at the link at the sidebar at the right. Obama would most likely win the 2016 award, but previous winners cannot be repeat winners; they can be nominated.

In the "Radicalized Muslim Terror" category, President Obama was nominated for his under-estimation of the JV team; went golfing; would get the intel briefing on the 15th tee. That nomination was made quite some time ago.

Today, in The WSJ we read that the JV team has struck Kirkuk, even as the allies move in on Mosul.  Having withdrawn 99% of US troops from Iraq, the US no longer has the capability of fighting the JV team in two different cities. Whatever.

Wow, This Is Just Getting Too Easy -- Another Geico Rock Award Nominee -- October 14, 2016

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen: the slow recovery from the Great Recession has surprised economists, confounding long-held beliefs about growth and inflation.

The article does not mention:

• the anti-growth Obama administration
• ObamaCare
• a gazillion pages of new regulations
• #BlackLivesMatter mentality
• keystoned pipelines
• corporate tax rates 

The Geico Rock Award nominees are listed here.

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Is This The "Jolt" Yellen Needs?
Probably Not

Meanwhile, deficits appear not to matter.

From McClatchy:

The government ran a $587 billion budget deficit for the just-completed fiscal year, a 34 percent spike over last year after significant improvement from the record deficits of President Barack Obama's first years in office.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article108285582.html#storylink=cpy

And then this:

Friday's deficit news, while sobering, does not appear bad enough to jolt a gridlocked Washington into action to stem the flow of red ink. It came in an annual report by the Treasury Department and the White House budget office.

Of course not.

And released late Friday afternoon. LOL.

I truly do believe that most politicians in Washington agree with Krugman, that money no longer matters; that deficits no longer matter.

Googling that "deficits no longer matter" brings up any number of distinguished writers. My hunch is that before I die, the Nobel price in economics will go to an economist that can strongly argue the case, and perhaps even prove his point with the US deficit.

Just as borders no longer matter. 

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Economy To Go Out On High Note As Obama's Presidency Comes To An End

From Reuters:

U.S. retail sales rebounded in September amid a surge in motor vehicle purchases and rise in discretionary spending, pointing to solid demand that reinforces expectations of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in December.Other data on Friday suggested a pickup in inflation, with producer prices rising broadly last month to record their biggest year-on-year increase since December 2014. The reports were the latest indication that the economy regained momentum in the third quarter after a lackluster first-half performance.

"Today's data give the Fed a green light to raise interest rates by year-end.

Retail numbers were solid and confirm that the economy is moving in what the Fed believes is an acceptable fashion," said [one of many talking heads].

And I thought automobile sales were down. Silly me. From an earlier post:

US car sales slip. WSJ. September results:

• GM and Ford sales decline amid pullbacks in fleet deliveries (this had been predicted)
• GM: slipped 0.6%. Inconsequential.
• Ford: "skidded" 8.1%. Consequential. (21% decline in fleet sales)
• Fiat Chrysler: down 0.9%; Jeep posted a rare decline
• Toyota: rose 1.5%
• Honda: a 0.1% decline

I guess whatever narrative you want to believe.

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The List Lengthens

Joining the long list of cities and states booting out Wells Fargo, one can now add Ohio. At Cleveland Patch:

Ohio Governor John Kasich announced that, for one year, he is barring Wells Fargo & Company from participating in future state debt offerings and financial services contracts initiated by state agencies under his authority and that he will seek to exclude Wells Fargo from participating in debt offerings initiated by the Ohio Public Facilities Commission (OPFC).

The governor must have pals at Wells Fargo. This is just a one-year ban. 

Alexa Vs Siri -- Walter Mossberg -- October 12, 2016

Thursday Morning Headliness

Rasmussen poll, a 9% shift? -- Trump leads in most recent poll:

The full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%.

Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but  that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday, one week ago.

Bob Dylan wins Nobel Price in literature.

Third war for Mr Obama: add Yemen to Iran and Afghanistan. Obama had called Yemen the poster child for democracy in the Mideast, and was still calling Yemen a success as recently as 2015. Less than 100 days for this president. It will seem like an eternity.

McDonald's new "graffiti" look. Epic fail.

Uber and Lyft are demolishing NYC taxi drivers. In 2014, a NYC taxi medallion changed hands at a price of $1.3 million; now, on a twitter feed, being advertised fro $250,000.

Wells Fargo CEO Stumpf abruptly resigns; Pocahontas goes on tirade; Stumpf replaced by long-time executive.

Amazon will add 120,000 workers during holidays. Amazon has already begun seasonal hiring at two Delaware sites. Why? Halloween candy!

On October 4, 2016, I had some good things to say about Alexa, the voice/personality behind Amazon's Echo. I couldn't quite put my finger on why Alexas impressed me so much. After all, I was quite familiar with Siri. And maybe that was the problem. Walter Mossberg has an essay on why Siri is so dumb. Mossberg has identified the problem and the comments to the article seem to be very, very accurate.

From the AP:

A man wearing body armor and armed with an assault rifle shot two Boston police officers who were responding to a report of a domestic disturbance, before being shot and killed by other officers.

The two wounded officers were hospitalized in “extremely critical condition” early Thursday morning.

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Really? Another Geico Rock Aware Nominee

The headline for this story is different on-line vs the print edition. At the link the headline is "A Grill-Master’s Fishing Getaway." The print edition, and I am not making this up: "On Lake or Ocean, Fishing Is a Form of Relaxation." Wow, if I had the name of the headline writer he/she would be the nominee for the Geico Rock Award for 2016.

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Four Baby Boomers Have Truly Wrecked America

Considering the source, the article is not worth much more than "clickbait" as they say. The headline:  "The baby boomers might just wreck America."

At first I thought they were talking about me and I became quite offensive. Then I noted they were talking about a specific group of baby boomers: George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and then I realized the writer had it exactly right. Those four have done more than any previous president back to Eisenhower to really screw things up. Forty percent of Baby Boomers had no part in placing three of those four, and possibly a fourth, into the White House.

Having said that, one needs to define "wrecking America." The writer does a poor job defining what he/she means by "wrecking America." Except for a few isolated examples. I think America is in as good a shape as it's ever been in.

• Economy: full employment; job market improves monthly; stock market at all time highs
• Social safety net: Social Security still solvent; payout will increase in 2017
• Health care: it seems everyone has access to the best health care system in the world even if they weren't able to keep their own doctor
• Education: it seems everyone has access to the best education in the world, especially at the undergraduate and graduate level; and, admission is guaranteed if you can pass yourself off as Pocahontas
• Cultural: #BlackLivesMatter pales in comparison to the racial discomfort of 1861
• Energy: so much energy, the government keystones pipelines; bans fracking; bans off-shore drilling and even more natural gas / crude oil is discovered/brought to market; now with worldwide glut (vs the OPEC embargo in the 70s/80s); private citizens demand wind turbines/solar farms as long as they are not in their backyards
• Entertainment: second to none, and never better in the history of the US (except perhaps for music of the 60s but I'm quibbling there); so many options, even the NFL is having difficulty competing for viewers
• Military: the military is completely voluntary and sailors, soldiers, airmen are paid well above minimum wage; women have equal access to getting maimed in almost all combat MOS's; eight years of US being at war and almost no one notices (not even the Pentagon, it seems); certainly better than the Vietnam Era
• Personal: interest rates such that almost anyone can buy a luxury car or EV at 0 percent money; gasoline under $2/gallon; a US citizen can choose to live in any one of 50 states and one district; the National Guard is not shooting at university students (Ohio State during the 60's)
• Personal: Roomba to clean your floors; Zumba to learn new dance moves; Siri to tell you where nearest sushi restaurant is

But the writer is exactly correct. I had not thought of his/her evaluation of Hillary and Donald. Both come from an entirely different era. Donald is worried about building cars in America; hasn't said a thing about smart phones. Hillary is personally confused and probably doesn't even know what an "app" is. She, too, is from a different era. But they certainly know how to make money the old fashioned way: know the tax code and funnel foundation money back to the family fortune.

Definitions:

• iGen, generation Z, centennials: 1996 -- 
• younger millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1992 - 1998
• older millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1982 - 1991
• generation X: 1965 - 1982 (no precise dates, late baby boomers)
• baby boomers: 1946 - 1964  

Definitions (from this site)

• iGen, generation Z, centennials: 1996 -- 
• millennials or generation Y: 1977 - 1995
• generation X: 1965 - 1976
• baby boomers: 1946 - 1964
• traditionalists or silent generation: born 1945 and before

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Wal-Mart Entry Level Wages

In this article, it states that Wal-Mart increased its entry level wages to $10/hour earlier this year. When I visited the Bakken a couple of weeks ago, entry level wages at the Williston Wal-Mart were $15/ hour. During the boom, I believe entry level wages were $20 / hour or higher.

Another Geico Rock Award 2016 Nominee -- Professor Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, A Leading Expert On Arctic Sea Ice Loss -- October 8, 2016

This is pretty cool. For quite some time now, I've predicted (it's on the blog in multiple places) that Saudi Arabia would have difficulty providing aid to various Mideast countries because of its own financial problems.

Well, here it is. Reuters is reporting: "Without Saudi oil aid, Egypt rushed out big buy tenders." Data points:

• Saudi Arabia recently agreed to provide Egypt 700,000 tonnes of refined oil products per month for five years under a $23 billion deal between Saudi Aramco and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation
• the deal was made during a state visit by none other than Saudi Arabia's King Salman himself
• Saudi Aramco products were halted as of October 1, 2016
• "the reason for the halt in aid remains unclear" -- LOL

From the linked article:

The kingdom has pumped billions of dollars, including grants, into Egypt's flagging economy since the toppling of President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.

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The Arctic Sea Is Not Ice-Free

For at least a decade, The Algore School of Global Warming has forecast that the Arctic Ocean would be completely free of ice by now. For a partial "list" of articles with that forecast, see Real Science":

• The Argus, July 17, 1954: "The ice-paced Arctic Ocean might become navigable in another 25 or 50 years if the present "warming-up" tendency of the Polar region continues. This was stated yesterday in the United States Congress."
• The Tuscaloosa News, May18, 1972: "Arctic Ocean to be ice-free by year 2000?
• Google/Newspapers, July 16, 2011: "With Arctic Ice at record low, NSIDC Director Serreze says 'we are on track to see an ice-free summer by 2030. It is an overall downward spiral."
• BBC News, 2009: Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'
• John Kerry: "... the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free for a short period of time as early as 2015, according to the 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Reportt completed by the eight Arctic Council Nations."

Meanwhile, seven years ago today, Algore predicted North Pole would be ice free in five years.

Well, it did not happen -- the Arctic is not ice-free. In fact, the ice is 21% thicker now than it was in 2012. It will be interesting to see if The National Geographic reports that. David Muir on ABC News won't be reporting that fact.  

The [London] Telegraph did: "Experts said Arctic sea ice would melt entirely by September 2016 -- they were wrong."

Scientists such as Prof Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, and Prof Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Moderey, California, have regularly forecast the loss of ice by 2016, which has been widely reported by the BBC and other media outlets.

Prof Wadhams, a leading expert on Arctic sea ice loss, has recently published a book entitled A Farewell To Ice in which he repeats the assertion that the polar region would free of ice in the middle of this decade.

As late as this summer, he was still predicting an ice-free September. (Geico Rock Award 2016 nominee.]

Yet, when figures were released for the yearly minimum on September 10, they showed that there was still 1.6 million square miles of sea ice (4.14 square kilometres), which was 21 per cent more than the lowest point in 2012.

Tennessee -- Ground Zero For ObamaCare Implosion; The War-Time, Nobel Prize-Winning President -- October 6, 2016

Updates

October 12, 2016: wow, this is quite a story. Remember, Minnesota was the most visible among states jumping on the ObamaCare bandwagon. Governor Dayton loved ObamaCare. Now, not so much. Governor Dayton: Affordable Care is no longer affordable.  Geico Rock 2016 award nominee. Even if he does not win "best in show," he will most likely win the honorary award.

Minnesota’s Democratic governor said Wednesday that the Affordable Care Act is “no longer affordable” for many, a stinging critique from a state leader who strongly embraced the law and proudly proclaimed health reform was working in Minnesota just a few years ago.

Gov. Mark Dayton made the comments while addressing questions about Minnesota’s fragile health insurance market, where individual plans are facing double-digit increases after all insurers threatened to exit the market entirely in 2017. He’s the only Democratic governor to publicly suggest the law isn’t working as intended.

Dayton’s comments follow former President Bill Clinton’s saying last week that the law was “the craziest thing in the world” before he backtracked.

“The reality is the Affordable Care Act is no longer affordable for increasing numbers of people,” Dayton said, calling on Congress to fix the law to address rising costs and market stability.

Much more at the link.

Original Post

 

I've seen numerous stories along the same line, but this may be one even folks in Hillary's camp can understand. In the WSJ today, an op-ed on page A15 -- ObamaCare's meltdown has arrived. Not linked; easy to google.

Helloooooo! Knock-knock, knock-knock. Hellooooo! Anyone home? Two new nominees for the Geico Rock Award 2016: Andrew Ogles, Tennessee state director, and Luke Hilgemann, CEO of Americans for Prosperity. The implosion began two years ago. I guess the folks at ground zero are now just climbing out of the rubble and writing about it. Wow.

The lede:

Tennessee is ground zero for ObamaCare's nationwide implosion. Late last month the state insurance commissioner approved premium increases of up to 62% in a bid to save the exchange set up under the Affordable Care Act.

"I would characterize the exchange market in Tennessee as very near collapse," the Tennessee insurance commissioner said.

Very. Near. Collapse.

Then last week BlueCross/BlueShield of Tennessee announced it would leave Nashville, Memphis, and Knoxville.

BC/BS said they had experienced losses approaching $500 million over the course of three years on ACA plans. This is unsustainable.

And it just gets worse from there. I don't think I will even link the article. As noted earlier, only the folks climbing out of the ObamaCare rubble are learning about this for the first time.

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The War Time President

This is a link to an AP story. The bottom line: President Obama would not be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize at this time.

AP tried to spin the story, suggesting that not everything Obama has done has been "bad." For example, "He is the commander-in-chief who pulled more than a hundred thousand U.S. troops out of harm's way in Iraq, ...." except that Obama's self-planned vacuum resulted in, everyone agrees, with the rise of ISIS. In response to  this "JV team," according to the AP, President Obama "also began a slow trickle of US soldiers back in." Incredibly bad policy to begin with, losing a war that had been won, and then, a response that was way to late, way to weak. (We won't even talk about Syria; and, of course, there are now pundits in Russia  who suggest a nuclear war between the US and Russia is closer than ever.)

I did not read the whole story, so I may have missed it, but it appears that the AP failed to note that President Obama is the first US president in history to have been at war the entire time he was president: and he was president for two full terms (assuming he doesn't find a constitutional loophole or create a constitutional crisis to extend his presidency, and his wars, which is not beyond the pale, if Trump has more electoral votes than Hillary at 11:00 p.m. Central Time, election night).

US Gasoline Demand Remains Strong; Price Of Gasoline Continues To Fall; Thursday, September 15, 2016

Apple sells out of iPhone 7 Plus and the jet black iPhone. Those must all be pre-orders, on-line orders. I did not think the new iPhones would be available in stores until Friday (tomorrow). Yes, that is correct. Here's the update, courtesy of Macrumors:

Apple has issued a statement to a number of press outlets including TechCrunch, indicating that all models of the iPhone 7 Plus as well as the Jet Black iPhone 7 have completely sold out ahead of Friday's launch and will not be available at Apple's retail stores. The announcement will help those who had hoped to purchase one of those models on a walk-in basis on Friday plan appropriately.

Even for Apple, this is unprecedented. Apple shares are up another 3% today.

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Subtle but real: US gasoline demand.

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Another Geico Rock Nominee
The Unplanned Reason Apple's iPhone 7 Could Be A Hit

From Yahoo!Finance: 

“Samsung’s challenges should benefit Apple,” RBC analyst Amit Daryanani said. ”Given the backdrop of subdued expectations for the iPhone 7, we think there is potential for Apple to surprise on the upside given share gain potential.”

This was a given about a week ago. Good to see Amit is on top of things.  

There is no category for "tech" for the annual Geico Rock Award, so Amit won't be formally nominated for the award.

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The Market

Mid-day trading: after several horrendous days, the bleeding has stopped. Over-reaction to talk about the Fed raising rates. Oil well below $45 now, about $43. Dow 30 up 115 points. Hard to get new highs after the past few days. NYSE:

• new highs: 32
• new lows: 15 

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Evolution
A Note For The Granddaughters

From an earlier post today: 

Oldest fossils in Greenland (stromatolites) pushes origin of life on earth back to 3.7 billion years ago. Previously, origin of life was estimated to be between about 2 billion and 1 billion years ago (John Hands, CosmoSapiens, c. 2015, p. 286).

From this blog:

• Prokaryocyte + protobacterium = eukaryocyte with mitochondria, iron (Fe) as the key element
• prokaryocyte + cyanobacterium (stromatolite) = eukaryocyte with chloroplast = green algae, the direct ancestor of all living plants, magnesium (Mg) as the key element

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Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution

Nathaniel Philbrick

c. 2016

DDS: 973.4 PHI

Chapter 5

The Dark Eagle 

Recap:

• Benedict Arnold's resignation not approved; told to report to Washington's HQ in Morristown, NJ
• Benedict Arnold had just tried to take on the Brits in his home state, Connecticut; relatively unsuccessful but considered a hero just the same
• Brits appear headed to Albany; panic in Continental Congress

This chapter:

• in this chapter, there will be a back-and-forth between Geo Washington/Howe in New Jersey; and, the fights going on Lake Champlain and Fort Ticonderoga, again
• Indians get involved
• the two "theaters" are going on simultaneously

Initial: 

• Lake Champlain / Fort Ticonderoga: Benedict Arnold / 
• Burgoyne (Brits) easily retake Fort Ticonderoga; but get tied up in swamp on way south to Skenesborough
• meanwhile the Brits advancing on Fort Stanwix at the headwaters of the Mohawk River

• New Jersey: Washington / Howe
• Howe could not support Burgoyne (Lake Champlain) and go after Washington; he had to do one of the other; decided to go after Washington; thought he could end war once and for all by destroying Washington's army
• Army Howe would use Navy Howe to get from NYC down to Delaware Bay / Cape May, and then farther south to Cape Charles at southern tip of Maryland, and then sail up Chesapeake Bay
• the goal: to take Philadelphia, the rebel capital

Execution of plans:

• Lake Champlain / Fort Ticonderoga: Benedict Arnold / 

• Americans are desperate at Fort Edward just south of Lake Champlain
• Schuyler and Arnold attempt to relieve Fort Edward
• then the Indian story; two women killed; one scalped, Jane McCrea; after French and Indian War, the colonists did not want to relive that war again, and there was a mass enlistment of colonists to take on the Brits and the Indians; McCrea became a permanent fixture in folklore of American Revolution
• Arnold gives Washington a suggestion: recruit Colonel Morgan's sharpshooters (which Washington did)
• with the abandonment of Fort Ticonderoga, the shift was to Fort Stanwix; Colonel Peter Gansevoort becomes a national hero
• John Stark story; major factor in American successes up north
• most Indians had sided with the Brits, but not the Oneida; Americans use that to their advantage
• Fort Stanwix holds; Gansevoort hero for life

• Maryland: Washington / Howe

• August 30, 1777: Howe arrives at Head of Elk, MD, not far from Philadelphia; Brandywine River between Chesapeake Bay and Philadelphia
• Washington posts his army on eastern side of Brandywine River, Chadds Ford
• Washington again "outgeneraled" and lost the opportunity to destroy Howe at the Battle of Brandywine
• 20-y/o Marquis de Lafayette wounded, taken off battlefield; Washington's army in full retreat

Bottom line:

• Washington still not particularly successful against Howe
• Benedict Arnold doing well in the north 

Great Update On Sarnia, Ontario, Canada's Oil And Petrochemical Complex -- July 28, 2016

Active rigs:

	7/28/2016	07/28/2015	07/28/2014	07/28/2012	07/28/2011
Active Rigs	35	73	193	207	181

RBN Energy: interesting look at Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, and the oil / petrochemical complex there; its history and update. This is really a great example of what makes the internet so great.

Sarnia, ON is one of Canada’s leading refinery and petrochemical centers, and for good reason. From the start –– 158 years ago, with what Canadians claim to be the world’s first oil well in the Western Hemisphere –– the Sarnia area has had geology and geography on its side, and it doesn’t hurt that it’s within 500 miles of more than half the people in North America. But the interconnecting infrastructure that drives Sarnia’s Chemical Valley isn’t nearly as well known or understood as the pipelines, railroads, storage and refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Also, it should be noted, Sarnia has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of Marcellus/Utica production of ethane and other natural gas liquids, the mother’s milk of the petchem sector. That alone makes it worth discussing. Today, we begin a series on a lynchpin of Canada’s hydrocarbon production and processing sector.

If Canadians are to be believed –– aren’t they too nice not to be? –– the first commercial oil well was dug (not drilled) by James Miller Williams at what came to be known as Oil Springs, ON (just south of Sarnia, in southwestern Ontario) in the summer of 1858. That was a full year before Edwin Drake drilled his first well at Titusville, PA.  Decades and even centuries before Williams dug that initial 50-foot well (some say he was drilling for water –– not oil –– and got lucky, Jed Clampett-style), the Oil Springs area had been known for its sticky, crude oil-based “gum beds,” small parts of which were excavated and refined into asphalt, paints and resins by native people and noted by early French explorers. After he struck oil, Williams, went right to work, building a simple refinery nearby and establishing Canada’s first oil company (J.M. Williams Co., which was soon renamed the Canadian Oil Co. to reflect his ambitions). Within a few years, more than 100 oil wells had been drilled in the Sarnia/Oil Springs/Petrolia area by wildcatters, and the region’s oil business was off to a rousing start –– until it wasn’t. The boom led to a bust (too much oil production flooded the market and prices collapsed –– sound familiar?), but a rebound followed, and by 1900 not only had Imperial Oil been formed (it had refineries in Petrolia and in nearby London, ON), it had been gobbled up by John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil. (Exxon Mobil still owns nearly 70% of Imperial.) Oil production in Ontario fizzled out decades ago, but by World War II Sarnia had cemented its place as one of eastern Canada’s refining and petrochemical hubs, criss-crossed by railroads and pipelines, and chock full of skilled refinery and petchem workers.

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Natural Resources Defense Council: Group Nominee For The 2016 Geico Rock Award

This story necessitates a new category for the 2016 Geico Rock Award: a "group award."

From Bloomberg:

"The big green groups that got invested in biofuels are tacitly realizing the blunder," said John DeCicco, a research professor at the University of Michigan Energy Institute who previously focused on automotive strategies at the Environmental Defense Fund.

"It’s really hard for the people who really -- shall we say -- hate oil viscerally, to think that this alternative that we’ve been promoting is today worse than oil."

The green backlash could give a boost to long-stalled congressional efforts to overhaul the Renewable Fuel Standard, including proposals to limit the amount of traditional, corn-based ethanol that counts toward the mandate, as environmentalists side with anti-hunger groups and even the oil industry in calling for change. The RFS forces refiners to blend steadily escalating amounts of biofuel into the gas supply. Most of the mandate is currently fulfilled by corn-based ethanol, which makes up nearly 10 percent of U.S. gasoline and provides oxygen that helps the fuel burn cleaner. [Insert RINS here for browser searching.]

The Natural Resources Defense Council used a 96-page report in 2004 to proclaim boundless biofuel benefits: slashed global warming emissions, improved air quality and more wildlife habitat.

Instead, farmers plowed millions of acres of prairie grasses to grow corn for making ethanol, with fertilizer runoff contributing to a dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. Scientists warned that carbon dioxide emissions associated with corn-based ethanol were higher than expected. And alternatives using switchgrass, algae and other non-edible plant materials have been slow to penetrate the market.

A reader reminds me that the Natural Resources Defense Council was the primer mover behind efforts to stop/delay the Bakken, CBR. Their efforts resulted in two million acres of conservation land being converted to corn crops, driving out pheasants and migratory ducks. The NRDC realizes they screwed up, according to the reader. The sad news: unlikely to get this conservation land back to original status. 

This is exactly what happens when "we" take a page from the Soviet Union playbook in which central planning from Washington, DC, is felt to be "better" than free market capitalism with minimal government interference.

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The Political Page

A reader -- who seems much more insightful than I on all issues I raise -- wrote me late last night (or early this morning) with comments about Michael Bloomberg's partiality in this election and how it will affect all reporting. My reply, which is not ready for prime time (which means it has been minimally edited and could be deleted later):

Along that same line, the fact that the NYT and the LA Times "took seriously" Trump's hyperbole and joke about Russia and Clinton's 30,000 lost e-mails suggests something else is afoot.

I thought of that after you sent me your note, and then it was confirmed when I see the Wall Street Journal is reporting the Trump story the same way. I thought the WSJ was better than this. [From their editorial pages, one can see that the WSJ is not particularly happy with Trump.]

I think this is the story: this has gotten personal. Well, duh. Of course, it has, but I mean that it's become a "personal" battle between two New Yorkers, and between two New York groups.

I think most Americans think this is a "national" election. I don't think New Yorkers see this as a "national" election at all. This is local. This is personal. The New Yorker magazine has become so blatantly biased it should be renamed The Hillary Magazine. Remember the New Yorker magazine cover some years ago -- a map of the US that essentially showed the US was made up only of that part of the US east of the Hudson River.

This is almost like the huge fight among the Greek gods on Olympus prior to and during the Trojan War. In fact, the analogy -- male vs female -- Zeus vs Hera -- is almost too good to pass up. [And why I decided to post this note.]

It seems Bloomberg is truly conflicted. He can't decide if he's a Democrat, Independent, or a Republican. I forget that he actually ran as a Republican when he ran for governor of New York. Despite his wealth and prestige, he almost seems to be a pathetic figure. If folks remember the Iliad, they may seen Bloomberg as the "early" sulking Achilles. Bloomberg, it seems, has not moved on.

NY Times Writer: Nominee For The 2016 Geico Rock Award -- July 19, 2016

From The New York Times. If necessary, google: how renewable energy is blowing climate change efforts off course. The article begins:

Is the global effort to combat climate change, painstakingly agreed to in Paris seven months ago, already going off the rails?

Germany, Europe’s champion for renewable energy, seems to be having second thoughts about its ambitious push to ramp up its use of renewable fuels for power generation.

Hoping to slow the burst of new renewable energy on its grid, the country eliminated an open-ended subsidy for solar and wind power and put a ceiling on additional renewable capacity.

Germany may also drop a timetable to end coal-fired generation, which still accounts for over 40 percent of its electricity, according to a report leaked from the country’s environment ministry. Instead, the government will pay billions to keep coal generators in reserve, to provide emergency power at times when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine.

Renewables have hit a snag beyond Germany, too. Renewable sources are producing temporary power gluts from Australia to California, driving out other energy sources that are still necessary to maintain a stable supply of power.

In Southern Australia, where wind supplies more than a quarter of the region’s power, the spiking prices of electricity when the wind wasn’t blowing full-bore pushed the state government to ask the power company Engie to switch back on a gas-fired plant that had been shut down.

But in what may be the most worrisome development in the combat against climate change, renewables are helping to push nuclear power, the main source of zero-carbon electricity in the United States, into bankruptcy.

It's a great article but you will have to go to the link for the whole story.

The next president of the US will determine the direction the US takes with regard to unreliable, non-dispatchable, costly energy.

The writer of this article is a nominee for the Geico Rock Award -- anyone paying attention has known about this problem for at least the past decade. This writer and proponents of wind/solar have finally come from under their rock. What a great article.

My hunch is the US Congress is starting to see the mess we've gotten ourselves into.

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Happy Belly

This is most interesting.

I just received two bags of incredibly good trail mix from Amazon. For free.

Each bag is 16 ounces. I have finished one bag, but will probably save the second bag for a special occasion.

I went to Amazon.com to order more Happy Belly Trail Mix but was unable to find the product.

I googled: did Amazon discontinue Happy Belly trail mix.

Just the opposite.

This is a really, really interesting marketing "ploy." Amazon, apparently, is "carpet-bombing" the market with new products but making them available only to their Prime customers. I assume, Jeff Bezos hopes this will get the buzz going and induce more folks to sign up for Prime. A two-fer.

I was aware of the scheme but had not paid attention to the details. After being unable to find Happy Belly Trail Mix at Amazon, googling brought me to the explanation over at The Wall Street Journal:

Amazon.com Inc. in the coming weeks is set to roll out new lines of private-label brands that will include its first broad push into perishable foods, according to people familiar with the matter.

The new brands with names like Happy Belly, Wickedly Prime and Mama Bear will include nuts, spices, tea, coffee, baby food and vitamins, as well as household items such as diapers and laundry detergents.

The first of the brands could begin appearing on Amazon’s namesake site as soon as the end of the month or early June.

Consumers have warmed to private-label brands since the days of generically named products sold in plain white packaging. Today, retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to Sephora to Dean & DeLuca sell a range of in-house brands that some may even view as higher quality.

Amazon’s latest lineup is aimed at winning sales in niches with generally higher profit margins, as well as giving the Seattle retailer a potential edge in crafting new products ahead of its own vendors.

“Amazon is ‘carpet-bombing’ the market with new products,” said Bill Bishop, chief architect of brand consultancy Brick Meets Click. “Private label allows them to test out new prices and distinctive flavors with less risk.”

Mr. Bishop said private-label goods boast higher profit margins than name brands because companies save costs on marketing and brand development. And with Amazon’s rich trove of data, it may better predict which products will sell well to its customers.

Amazon will only offer the private-label products to members of its $99-per-year Prime membership, this person said, potentially giving the program a boost.

More at the link.

Healthy? Lots of nuts -- lots of nuts -- and unsalted. All types of nuts (including almonds and cashews), raisins, and a few M & Ms.

The War On Cops -- An Obama Legacy -- Non-Bakken -- July 17, 2016

Updates

July 18, 2016: Baltimore, fourth trial. Acquittal. Highest-ranking cop on trial for this death, not guilty. Baltimore DA: 0 - 4.  

Original Post

 

New Black Panther Party establishes a chapter in Baton Rouge -- July 16, 2016.

Al Sharpton: #BlackLivesMatter is not anti-cop -- July 16, 2016. Al Sharpton is a nominee for the 2016 Geico Rock Award.

From September, 2015, almost a year ago.

Baton Rouge cops ambushed; 3 killed; 7+ injured -- July 17, 2016.

One wonders if President Obama will be attending memorial services for cops killed under these circumstances.  My hunch is that the minimum threshold is six cops killed in any one event if he plans to attend. With five cops killed in Dallas it would have been hard for him not to go. But now that that box has been checked, a new, higher bar has been set.

The "War on Cops" officially becomes part of Obama's Legacy.

Flashback: if "they" bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun." Yes, he actually said that.

That’s exactly what Barack Obama said he would do to counter Republican attacks “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,” Obama said at a Philadelphia fundraiser Friday night. “Because from what I understand folks in Philly like a good brawl. I’ve seen Eagles fans.”

No better than Boehner.

We Start The Day With 29 Active Rigs In North Dakota And Nearly $50 WTI Oil Going Into Memorial Day Weekend -- May 27, 2016

Active rigs:

	5/27/2016	05/27/2015	05/27/2014	05/27/2013	05/27/2012
Active Rigs	29	84	190	187	214

RBN Energy: natural gas faces increasing competition in Texas.

With storage inventories soaring to record-high levels and production remaining relatively flat, the U.S. natural gas market is in dire need of record demand this summer to balance storage. All eyes are on power generation to soak up the gas storage surplus. Low gas prices and increased gas-fired generating capacity makes natural gas the go-to generation fuel this year.  However, in the largest summer demand market – Texas – natural gas is facing increasing competition from wind. Wind power still provides a much smaller share of Texas’s power than natural gas, but the addition of several big wind farms in 2015 gives wind a stronger footing in the Texas market this year. Today we take a closer look at the potential impact of growing wind generating capacity on natural gas demand, particularly in Texas.

We talked about the market’s dire need for incremental, even record demand recently. The gas market started the storage injection season in April (2016) with a record storage overhang, and mild weather since then has suppressed demand and limited the market’s ability to whittle down the surplus. However, if we discount the effects of the milder-than-normal weather, demand actually has been exceptionally strong on a degree day basis and could easily reach record highs this year if we get a normal-to-hotter summer weather. But now there is another potential factor that could blunt demand as well – wind generation, especially in Texas. Before we get to that though, first let’s put Texas power generation and wind into perspective.

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Raging Bull

Newest nominee for the 2016 Geico Rock Award for not knowing the "Pocahontas" story and how it related to Elizabeth Warren and Harvard University: Three Affiliated Tribes Councilman Ken Hall. Link here. The Geico Rock Award nominees are tracked here.

Speaking of which, I think TAT should consider calling Donald Trump, "Raging Bull."

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Raging Bulls

Updates

May 27, 2016: talk of a Trump-Sanders debate was just that: talk. DOA. No debate. 

Original Post

Thrilla from Manila.

One small step for man...

Miracle on ice.

The Lincoln-Douglas Debates

Don't ask what your country can do for you ....

I have a dream .....

And now: the debate of the 21st century -- Sanders in the far left corner, and Trump (sort of) in the right corner.

A reminder: Hillary has declined another debate with Sanders.

Mano a mano.

The panel: Megyn Kelly, Simon Cowell, and Jerry Brown.

Venue: Tomorrow Land, Disneyland, California. Alternate: Fantasy Land, Disneyland, California.

Opening act: Taylor Smith.

Fight's on.

Just saying.

Back To The Water Issue In The Bakken -- It's Still Not An Issue -- Those Working Outdoors In The Mud Tend To Use More Water Than Office Workers -- DOE's Argonne National Laboratory -- May 21, 2016

Somehow this research doesn't quite measure up to what I would expect to come out of the Argonne National Laboratory. The laboratory has an incredibly rich nuclear energy history.

Maybe not so much any more if measured by this article in which the laboratory noted that blue collar workers, working in the outdoors, in the mud, tend to use more water on a daily basis than office workers.

The article also fails to note that these workers are not paying for their water on a usage basis; it comes as part of the "hotel" daily or weekly or monthly charge. The study also does not note that even if they did pay by usage, these guys would well afford it, being paid 1.5x, 2x, maybe as much as 5x what an office worker would get paid.

Before you get to deep into the article, this buried deep in the story:

Most of the water used in the North Dakota Bakken comes from Lake Sakakawea. Recent increases in the lake's water use due to population growth and oil development are not currently an issue in terms of continued availability.

Yes, that is correct: water remains a non-issue in the Bakken, and especially now that all the temporary workers have left and fracking has come to a standstill.

But this does take me back to my numerous posts early on with the data showing that water use in the Bakken was negligible compared to the amount released daily by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

It took me about 15 minutes to do that "research," and it cost the taxpayer nothing for my services.

Back to the linked article. The writer talks about three issues:

• water used in initial fracking (the writer doesn't mention that ND is advocating "produced water" for fracking
• freshwater for well maintenance (required for the life of the well)
• personal freshwater use by temporary oil workers

I can't make this stuff up.

This is an incredibly important piece of research however:

• it becomes a footnote in the history of the Bakken; and,
• it pretty much ensures that the Argonne folks won't come back to re-visit this story any time soon.

Hey, by the way, I posted a note on "freshwater for well maintenance" back in 2013. I'll be contacting Argonne to see if I was cited in their research. I don't expect to hear back.

Argonne Laboratory: a 2016 Geico Rock Award nominee?

I still get a kick out of learning that folks working in the mud tend to use more water than office workers.

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Water May Not Be An Issue In The Bakken, But ...

Lake Mead is setting new records -- but records we don't want to see.  The lake has declined to lowest levels in history.

As of Thursday afternoon, the lake’s level stood at an elevation of about 1,074.6 feet. The federal Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the reservoir and Hoover Dam, projects the level to decline a few feet more to an elevation of about 1,071 feet by the end of June, before the level begins to rise again with releases of water from Lake Powell.

Under the federal guidelines that govern reservoir operations, the Interior Department would declare a shortage if Lake Mead’s level is projected to be below 1,075 feet as of the start of the following year. In its most recent projections, the Bureau of Reclamation calculated the odds of a shortage at 10 percent in 2017, while a higher likelihood – 59 percent – at the start of 2018.

But those estimates will likely change when the bureau releases a new study in August. Rose Davis, a public affairs officer for the Bureau of Reclamation, said if that study indicates the lake’s level is going to be below the threshold as of Dec. 31, a shortage would be declared for 2017.

California has nothing to worry about:

That would lead to significant cutbacks for Arizona and Nevada. California, which holds the most privileged rights to water from the Colorado River, would not face reductions until the reservoir hits a lower trigger point.

Actually my hunch is that if there are significant cutbacks for Phoenix, Tucson, and Las Vegas but not for California, the cities and the states will sue. It would likely end up at the US Supreme Court but based on recent history, if the court remains at 4 - 4 split, it's unlikely to take the case.

The 4 - 4 court has ruled that contracts can be broken by midstream operators/MLPs in bankruptcy proceedings, or something to that effect -- I saw the headline about two weeks ago, but did not read the article. Nothing surprises me any more. Laws and contracts were meant to be broken, I guess.

The Saudis Know Something About Oil That Most Of Us Don't -- Rick Newman -- Yahoo!Finance -- Nomination For Geico Rock Of The Year Award -- April 2, 2016

Another "fluff" article from Yahoo!Finance with an eye-catching headline: The Saudis may know something about oil the rest of us don’t. Considering they produce 10 million bopd and most of the rest of us don't, I would hope the "Saudis" know something about oil that the rest of us don't. What an incredibly lame headline / thesis.

The writer seems to be overly excited about the "Saudis" monetizing their assets. In fact, they will be monetizing less than 5% of the implied value of Saudi Aramco and they are pretty much monetizing downstream assets. This has nothing to do with selling their oil in the ground, except marginally --- and an incredibly tiny margin at that.

Why they are doing it is anyone's guess. We've talked about this before. But just the fact that they are doing it speaks volumes.

Regardless, Rick Newman, noting that the Saudis probably know something about oil that you and I do not know about has nominated himself for the 2016 Geico Rock of the Year Award. Congratulations.

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The Politics Page

The Weekly Standard is reporting:

Hillary Clinton has a very complicated opinion of coal. In March, she proudly declared, "we are going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business."

Now, she says she wants to see coal "continued to be sold and continued to be mined."

Which is it?

But what is it about the progressives that want to put Americans out of work. She wants to ban fracking, also.  Although her position on fracking is probably complicated, too.

No Recession ... Yet -- April 27, 2016; The Fed: We've Hit A Soft Patch

Updates

Later, 7:59 p.m. Central Time: one has to laugh -- the mainstream media says "we've" hit a "soft patch" economically. In fact, the economy has never looked so good under the past six or seven years of the Obama administration. Just when I thought it was looking better, mainstream media says we've hit a "soft patch." Why is that topical? If we've hit a "soft patch," the Fed is unlikely to raise rates. And that's what is being telegraphed. And that's why the market will continue to hold its own, and possibly even continue its "upward" trend.  One wonders if the Fed should not be nominated for the 2016 Geico Award?
 

Original Post

 

Due to electrical storm last night we lost our wi-fi internet at home; blogging was delayed a bit, but we will get up and running soon.

After hitting an all-time post-boom low of 24 active rigs the other day, "we're" back to 28 today. [By mid-day, it dropped back to 27, and I've updated the graphic below to reflect that "27."]

Wow! Talk about missing a forecast, from Zacks:

Baker Hughes posted wider loss than the consensus. Loss per share from continuing operations (excluding special items) came in at $1.58, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents loss per share. This also came wider than the year-ago quarterly loss of seven cents per share.

Just a few of the other companies reporting today that are of interest; results will be posted at "earnings page" when I get around to it:

• Facebook, after market close, 62 cents/share forecast.
• First Solar, after market close, 93 cents/share forecast. 
• QEP, after market close, a 60-cent loss/share forecast. 
• Whiting, after market close, a 72-cent loss/share forecast. 
• Xilinx, after market close, 52 cents/share forecast.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	4/27/2016	04/27/2015	04/27/2014	04/27/2013	04/27/2012
Active Rigs	27	85	182	187	209

RBN Energy: US E&P Upstream Capital Spending Plunging Again.

In connection with year-end 2015 earnings announcements, North American exploration and production companies (E&Ps) continued to announce large reductions in 2016 capital budgets.

But the most dramatic news is that RBN’s analysis of a study group of 30 E&Ps indicates that these companies are finally expecting oil and gas production to fall in 2016 after a 7% gain in 2015.

In today’s blog we update our continuing analysis of E&P capital spending and oil and gas production guidance. As U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continue to hover around $40/Bbl, RBN’s analysis of 2016 capital expenditure guidance indicates that our study group of 30 E&Ps are cutting CAPEX in half, from $60.3 billion in 2015 to $30.6 billion in 2016.

In just two years, upstream investment has plummeted by two-thirds from $94.9 billion in 2014. Importantly, the precipitous falloff in drilling is finally leading to lower expected US hydrocarbon output, driven by a decline in oil. As we examine below, the Large Oil-Weighted E&Ps and Small/Mid-Size Oil-Weighted E&Ps are guiding to 10% and 7% production declines, respectively, after a collective 6% increase between 2014 and 2015.

This forecasted output decline has already contributed to modest gains for oil prices in recent weeks. Guidance for the Diversified US Gas-Weighted E&Ps indicates their output will fall 8%. But an expected 15% increase by the Appalachian Gas-Weighted E&Ps will leave the overall gas volumes delivered by our “universe” of 30 E&Ps about flat at 1.18 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe).

GDP forecast:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 26, up from 0.3 percent on April 19. After last Wednesday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, the forecast for first-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 8.5 percent to 10.8 percent. After this morning's advance report on durable manufacturing from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for real equipment investment growth declined slightly while the forecast for real inventory investment increased slightly.

"Dramatic shift" in Saudi strategy? Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:

Saudi Arabia made its first sale of oil to a small, independent Chinese refiner.

What’s more significant to markets is that the world’s biggest crude exporter broke from its usual practice of selling via long-term contracts.

The world’s biggest crude exporter sold a spot cargo to teapot refiner Shandong Chambroad.

The 730,000-barrel shipment is expected to load in June from state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co.’s leased storage tank in Japan.

“News that Saudi Arabia is selling a cargo on the spot market to Asia may mark the turning of a dramatic new chapter in the Saudi playbook. What is unusual is that the sale is spot rather than the initiation of a new term contract. Spot sales are about the only way the Kingdom can gain new market share in a world in which chunky buyers are interested in securing incremental purchases via spot rather than term arrangements.”

Brent crude is almost 40 percent lower than in November 2014, when Saudi Arabia led a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep pumping to defend market share in the face of swelling global inventories.

Aramco will complete the expansion of its Shaybah oilfield by the end of May to maintain the level of its total production capacity.

This summer, the Kingdom may be targeting an additional 500,000 barrels a day of sales, boosting daily production to 11 million barrels as power-generation demand peaks, Citigroup estimated.

Saudi Arabia’s output reached a record 10.57 million barrels a day last July, helping to send Brent lower for a third year. Prices rallied from a 12-year low in January amid the potential for agreement between major oil producers to cap output.

These are "interesting" numbers for Saudi Arabia.

• record output: 10.57 million bopd
• will expand an oil field to maintain production
• target: 11 million bopd this summer 

These numbers are significantly different that what has been reported in the past.

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Environmental Concerns In The Mideast? LOL

Meanwhile, over in Khafji, Reuters/Rigzone is reporting:

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia appear no closer to restarting their jointly operated Khafji oilfield despite Kuwait saying the sides had agreed to ramp up output after an 18-month shutdown.

Any delay in the restart of the Neutral Zone field that produced 280,000 to 300,000 barrels per day before environmental problems forced its closure in October 2014 will be seen as a boost to global oil markets struggling to shake off a glut that has sent prices diving over the past two years.

Kuwait's acting oil minister said on March 29, 2016, that Kuwait had agreed with neighbouring Saudi Arabia to resume production at the field. Riyadh has yet to confirm that announcement, and Saudi-based industry sources say there has been no breakthrough in talks to resolve what has become a political sticking point between the two Gulf OPEC allies.

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Over The Top -- The Politics Page

Mr Trump will probably come up short in the "official" number of delegates he needs to win on the first vote at the convention. At least that's the conventional convention thinking.

In fact, there are uncommitted delegates that can be "bought."

Some contenders with a few committed delegates could release their delegates on the first vote if given some incentive by Mr Trump.

Trump won every county in every one of the five states last night. EVERY COUNTY IN EVERY ONE OF THE FIVE STATES. Not trivial. 

Bottom line: the Republican Party -- the GOP -- has been usurped by a third party candidate.  

Keep this woman in mind: Susana Martinez is an American attorney and politician. She is the 31st and current Governor of New Mexico and current chairwoman of the Republican Governors Association.

Best line of the day: Ted Cruz called a basketball hoop a "basketball ring" while creating a scen from Hoosiers. Local broadcasters suggested he may not know a lot about sports. Well, duh. Can you imagine if George Bush had said this?

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No Will?

If, in fact, Prince left no will, it speaks volumes about his priorities. Many, many story lines. Most of them very, very sad. Maybe pathetic.

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The Literature Page

A Note for the Granddaughters

Current books. I'm re-reading Keld Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse: The Liberation of the Western Mind, From Odysseus to Socrates. That's my "main book" right now. Off and on during the day I read Richard Feynman's lectures (a commemorative edition released many decades ago). I'm pretty much done with my "Wars of the Roses" and Shakespeare phase for the moment. And before going to bed, Dorothy Parker's reviews of Broadway shows back around 1920. It's hard to believe her formal education ended in 8th grade or thereabouts, so she could stay home, and take care of her ailing father, or something to that effect; I've forgotten the specifics. 

And The Problem Is? -- April 11, 2016

Updates

April 12, 2016: along with the article linked below, there was a link to United Van Lines 39th Annual Moves Survey. In addition to the story, there is a great interactive map. When you get there be sure to click on the "video" at the bottom of the map to see the change in moves since 1978, on an annual basis. I think the results for North Dakota will surprise you. [The little grey arrow to click on is at the far right; it bleeds into the sidebar at the right.]
 

Original Post

CNBC is reporting:

Can you move 1,200 miles just to lower your taxes? Well, David Tepper can, and it may save him hundreds of millions of dollars.

Tepper is the founder of hedge fund Appaloosa Management, and he’s worth more than $10 billion, according to Forbes. He ran his firm out of New Jersey for years, but recently moved the operation to Miami Beach. The top income tax rate in New Jersey is nearly 9%. In Florida, the top rate is 0. Tepper will save so much money that New Jersey finance officials worry that the tax revenue lost to his move could blow a hole in the state budget.

Connecticut lost a couple of billionaires as well—businessmen Thomas Peterffy and C. Dean Metropoulos, who also decamped for Florida recently. Their departure lowered Connecticut’s billionaire count from 15 to 13.

The Nutmeg State is also losing longtime corporate citizen General Electric to Boston, a move GE made after Connecticut passed big tax hikes. Florida Gov. Rick Scott even invited Yale University to ditch New Haven and relocate to the Sunshine State, to avoid a new tax some Connecticut lawmakers wanted to impose on the school’s endowment. That bill failed to pass, and Yale says it is staying put (for now).

And the problem is?

The bigger story is that it appears the writer of this story, Robert Frank -- no doubt a business writer -- after all, he titles his column "Inside Wealth" -- seems to have just discovered that a) some states do not have income taxes; and, b) some folks like to take advantage of that.

When I read that only "wealthy" folks can take advantage of that, I cry "foul." There are no restrictions or laws that preclude anyone from moving to a state that has no income tax. Or one can move to a state where income taxes are lower. To the best of my knowledge, one can find work in almost any state if one tries hard enough. At least that's the story line from various state governments and the federal government and Reuters and Bloomberg every week when the jobs data comes out.

Google "unemployment Texas" and note that the unemployment rate in Texas approaches 4% -- full employment -- and that there are many, many stories on the number of jobs being added each month. Florida, at 5.6%, is almost as good. In both states, the unemployment rate has been dropping like a Boeing 747 with all engines shut off.

So, we had Robert Frank to our list of nominees for the 2016 Geico Rock Award.

And, I guess to be fair, we have to add Rick Newman, also, who reported the same story, almost word-for-word. As usual, the comments are more entertaining than the article.