Sunday, September 20, 2020

Weekly Edition of "Focus On Fracking" Has Been Posted -- September 20, 2020

Link here. 

Lede: global oil shortage at 1.7 million bopd in August, 2020. DUCs fell as completions rose; new wells drilled remained at all-time low.

Comment: it will take awhile to go through this week's post, but the "global oil shortage of 1.7 million bopd in August" was taken from the OPEC report. That's a global shortage. Back-of-the-envelope to help me put that 1.7 million bopd in perspective:

  • 1.7 x 31 = 50 million bbls.
  • US crude oil in storage, November 21, 2018: 450 million bbls
  • US crude oil in storage, September 16, 2020: 500 million bbls

Link here.

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Not Fast Enough

T-Mobile has a television ad to get free internet access and wi-fi infrastructure to "eligible" households (distance / remote learning) featuring elementary-school-age children in the ads. T-Mobile targets 10 million households over the next five years.

Not fast enough.

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High Diesel Inventories Weigh On Oil Markets -- Oilprice --September 20, 2020

"Focus On Fracking" has been talking about this for weeks. 

Weekly update will be posted later this evening.

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Trump Organization Warned That Rallies Are Not Following State Guidelines

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Yeah, It's Dead -- The Dead Cow -- September 20, 2020

Vaca Muerta is tracked here. 

This may have been previously reported from a different source.

Now, from Haley Zaremba:

But there are plenty of other oil producing countries in the world who have also seen massive market failures due to COVID-19’s destruction of oil demand and which have not received even a fraction of the attention. One such country is Argentina, home to one of the largest oil and gas fields in the world, the Vaca Muerta shale basin, which contains approximately 927 million barrels of proven reserves. [My hunch is that based on price, this number has been cut significantly.]

Way back in April, even before the historic WTI crash, Bloomberg (via World Oil) published one of relatively few reports of the shale play. More than a report, it was an obituary. “Oil crash kills Vaca Muerta’s potential as the next shale hotspot,” the headline read.

The April 2 article read: “Just a bit more than 3 weeks ago, the head of Argentina’s state-run driller outlined an aggressive $1.8 billion spending plan for 2020 in the country’s Vaca Muerta shale region, based on $60-a-barrel crude. With global prices starting the year above $68, it wasn’t unrealistic. Now, all bets are off.”

Now, nearly half a year later, is Vaca Muerta fully dead? The short answer is no. 
The full answer, of course, is a lot more complicated. According to the Argentinian energy minister of Neuquen province, where the vast Vaca Muerta field is located, resurrecting the shale play will take more than a year. Achieving pre-COVID-19 production levels, he said, will take an estimated 12-18 months due to a lack of market demand, which may not be bouncing back any time soon. “We believe it will take a while for fuel demand to fully recover,” Monteiro told listeners on Monday in an industry webinar.

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So Much For Blind Justice

 Updates

September 25, 2020: I made the very same point in the comments section. Even the Democrats realized when "enough was enough." Remember, in her 27 years on the US Supreme Court, she hired on African American. Prior to that, all her years as a federal judge, not one African-American judge. I can't wait to hear the eulogies given by the BLM folks.


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September 22, 2020: in the comments, I mentioned that the graphic below was so good on so many levels. I completely missed this one. From a reader, with minimal editing, who noted that RBG will lie in repose as the Supreme Court for seven days:

Being raised in ___ and living in ____ means I've had limited exposure to current Jewish observance.  But, by what little I do know, Jews were not embalmed.  They're buried within 24 hours of death with two exceptions.  No burials on the Sabbath, no burials on the first day of a major holiday, e.g. Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur, Passover.  Traditionally, a wooden casket was used and some folks had holes constructed in the bottom to hasten decomposition.

Now, I realize that religious observance has become less strict across many faiths.  Fro example, Catholics and birth control pills, Lutherans and lutefisk.... but [is there any] contemporary East Coast Jewish community to reference?  Is this 7-day wake not completely in dissent with Judaic belief/custom?  

(My Canadian-born Grandma told of being frightened as a young child.  It was customary to have a coffin on display in the family home.  Dry ice substituted for embalming to preserve the corpse while awaiting the funeral.  She was understandably scared of dead people cloaked in a spooky, swirling cloud of carbon dioxide.)

I'm assuming that's not going to be the scene in the rotunda, and RBG has been embalmed.  But, I'm just curious if that's relatively commonplace now. [See this link.]

Original

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Closer Look At The Red Trail Energy Wildcat Well -- September 20, 2020

Updates

September 20, 2020: see first comment. This is a pdf / white paper on RTE:

Original Post 

 The well:

  • 37229, loc/loc, Red Trail Energy, LLC, RTE 10, SESE 10-139-92, 600' FSL 250' FEL; wildcat, far southeast fringe of the Bakken; perhaps outside the Bakken; about 2.5 miles SE of Richardton, ND; most famous for denying a man-camp permit some years ago, some citing the risk of an all-male enclave; about 22 miles due east of Dickinson; FracFocus: no data;

Over at "Bakken Operators":

Red Trail Energy, LLC

  • first mentioned on the blog, December 2, 2019; link here;

Over at NDIC's "well search":

  • #37229 is the company's first permit in North Dakota

Six wells in this immediate area have been drilled over the years; many different formations; all dry. Hope springs eternal. 


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The Movie Page

Wow! Gilda explained! Changes everything. Amazing. Eddie Muller figured it out. Actually I doubt he was the first. Rita Kaszás had it figured out in 1964. I watched Gilda last night before I knew Eddie Muller's explanation. Watching it again this morning in a completely different light. Great movie; great ending.

Casablanca: 1942.

Gilda: 1946

Glenn Ford, in Gilda, channeling Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca. 

Rita Hayworth's character: hell hath no fury like a spurned woman. 

Additional links:


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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- September 20, 2020

The wells:

  • 36671, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-9, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20202300230369
6-20201457712149
5-20201943923745
4-20203070045643
3-202033954456
  • 34662, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201862057574
6-20202430071309
5-20202422765097
4-20201122520024
3-20200466
  • 36949, conf, Whiting, Arndt 11-24XH, Sanish, 
  • 37016, conf, Hess, TI-Blestrud-158-94-3130H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2020160
6-202060360
5-20201480
4-20201959527088
3-202043909123
  • 36313, conf, BR, State Dodge 1B MBH, Dimmick Lake, 
  • 34663, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2TFH, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201775848596
6-20202922559261
5-20202780480109
4-20201066732307
3-20200904
  • 34914, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-3H, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20202085369945
6-20202518077969
5-20202996586155
4-20201463230120
3-20200841
  • 37229, loc/loc,  Red Trail Energy, LLC, RTE 10, SESE 10-139-92, 600' FSL 250' FEL; wildcat,
  • 34915, conf, Wold Federal 44-1-3TFH, Sand Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201431945612
6-20202211171601
5-20202523572065
4-2020833528850
3-20200460
  • 36465, conf, Whiting, Joseph Verne 12-13-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20202152514809
6-20201945512979
5-20202053714868
4-2020108998715
  • 34788, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H, Eightmile,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2020203336490
6-2020194054137
5-20202324514165
4-2020165357390
3-20203513
  • 34787, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H, Eightmile,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2020154377624
6-2020153643131
5-2020173768955
4-2020169076850
3-2020697466
  • 34786, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20201527610171
6-2020129162164
5-2020127266508
4-2020119172886
3-20207390
  • 36840, drl/A, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-9, Tioga,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202018770679428666101061005551
BAKKEN6-202072004184436301737172611
BAKKEN5-202031190771902226029225512253021
BAKKEN4-2020302705426990348101384413656188
BAKKEN3-202012104321029383843473338093
  • 36689, SI/A, Whiting, Iverson 41-14HU, Sanish,
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- September 20, 2020

Monday, September 28, 2020: 145 for the month; 216 for the quarter, 662 for the year
36671, conf,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-9,
34662, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2H,

Sunday, September 27, 2020: 143 for the month; 214 for the quarter, 660 for the year
36949, conf, Whiting, Arndt 11-24XH,

Saturday, September 26, 2020: 142 for the month; 213 for the quarter, 659 for the year
37016, conf, Hess, TI-Blestrud-158-94-3130H-1,
36313, conf, BR, State Dodge 1B MBH,
34663, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-2TFH,

Friday, September 25, 2020: 139 for the month; 210 for the quarter, 656 for the year
34914, conf, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-3H,

Thursday, September 24, 2020: 138 for the month; 209 for the quarter, 655 for the year
37229, conf,  Red Tral Energy, LLC, RTE 10, wildcat, see this note; API: 33-089-00904;
34915, conf, Wold Federal 44-1-3TFH,

Wednesday, September 23, 2020: 136 for the month; 207 for the quarter, 653 for the year
None.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020: 136 for the month; 207 for the quarter, 653 for the year
None.

Monday, September 21, 2020: 136 for the month; 207 for the quarter, 653 for the year
36465, conf, Whiting, Joseph Verne 12-13-2H
34788, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H,
34787, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H,
34786, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H

Sunday, September 20, 2020: 132 for the month; 203 for the quarter, 649 for the year
36840, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-9,

Saturday, September 19, 2020: 131 for the month; 202 for the quarter, 648 for the year
36689, conf, Whiting, Iverson 41-14HU,
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Sturgis Rally Update -- September 20, 2020

Link here.

Sturgis Rally: August 7 - August 16, 2020.

At link above, set "search" for "yesterday."

Number of cases means absolutely nothing.

Number of deaths associated with Covid-19 "means more" but numbers are incredibly questionable. Criteria for diagnosis varies across jurisdiction.

This is Sunday. I don't know how accurate these numbers are. It would mean that the state health officials would have had to come into work on a Sunday to post the results for "yesterday." The next set of numbers that might be more reliable will be Tuesday, September 22, 2020. 

But be that as it may, new deaths in last 24 hours:

  • Montana: 10 -- wow -- completely unexpected!
  • Wyoming: 0 -- two days in a row with zero new deaths;
  • North Dakota: 8
  • South Dakota: 2 -- compared to Minnesota, ND, Montana -- looking pretty good
  • Nebraska: 0 -- two days in a row with zero new deaths;
  • Iowa: 3
  • Minnesota: 13 -- ouch!!

Deaths per million population, and (ranking among 50 states and DC):

  • Iowa: 401 (23) -- ranking unchanged
  • Minnesota: 357 (27)  -- ranking unchanged
  • North Dakota: 252 (35) -- moved up from 37 to 35 (bad)
  • Nebraska: 228 (39) -- ranking unchanged
  • South Dakota: 226 (40) -- ranking unchanged
  • Montana: 146 (44) -- moved up to 44 from 45 yesterday (bad)
  • Wyoming: 85 (50) -- ranking unchanged

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Commentary

Most surprising: has anyone noticed the "relative surge" in number of new deaths in Iowa over the past few days (also Minnesota for that region)?

This from The AP: Iowa governor won't budge on masks even as virus deaths rise. You go, girl! Link here. 

Plenty of Republican governors initially rejected mask mandates, but few have held to their skepticism amid soaring coronavirus cases with the tenacity of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Reynolds scoffs at calls for a statewide mask order, calling them “feel-good” actions, and refuses to let city officials enforce local mandates, even as the small, largely rural state maintains one of the highest COVID-19 positivity rates and has topped 1,200 dead. While she implores residents to wear masks while indoors when social distancing isn’t possible, she has said not everyone believes they’re effective and frequently is photographed mingling at crowded events without a mask.

“I think the goal is to do what we can to reduce the spread of the virus,” Reynolds said last week. “I believe that is the end goal and that we can get there without a mask mandate. I believe that and that’s what I’m going to consistently do.”

It’s a stand that has frustrated public health experts and exasperated some mayors, but unlike governors in other states, Reynolds has made clear she’s not budging.

Reynolds’ argument against a mandate boils down to three points: a mask requirement can’t be enforced, other factors are to blame for rising virus cases and people should have the freedom to make their own choices.

ZeroHedge wrap:

  • As COVID cases rise, mortality falls
  • California suffers 100 new COVID deaths
  • Arizona surge eases
  • ULK cases top 4K for 2nd day
  • NY reports most new cases since early June: won't be reported on CNBC:
  • US on track for second day of 49K cases
  • US reports nearly 50K cases
  • France sees sudden jump in deaths: folks can probably guess where and why in France;
  • Russia tops 6K new cases for first time since mid-July
  • UK PM considers whether to "go further" with new restrictions: oh-oh; don't give Biden any ideas;
  • Indonesia reports record jump in new cases

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Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- September 20, 2020

First things first: anyone following recent numbers have to ask with regard to Covid-19: "what's going on in Iowa?" We'll talk about that later; it's very, very interesting.

Feature article: Amazon keeps spreading across America; plans 1,000 -- that's one thousand -- warehouses in suburban neighborhoods; in ZeroHedge, September 19, 2020.

Hurricane Watch: OMG! Tropical Storm Beta winds as high as 27 mph. Now being reported that the tropical storm probably won't become a hurricane, but Weather Channel still breathless. Hurricane Teddy downgraded. When does golf start this morning? 10:00 a.m. CDT, I believe.

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GM

The incredible shrinking GM: from The WSJ. GM says it can't afford to stay in markets where it no longer makes money, so it will go into EVs. LOL. I can't make this up:
Ms. Barra is adamant that GM can still grow but in a different way than in the past: through new businesses built on electric and driverless cars. Those technologies cost billions a year to develop, and are likely a long way from paying off. GM could no longer afford to stay in markets where it doesn’t make money, Ms. Barra, 58, said in an interview.

Are you kidding me? Link to ZeroHedge via Oilprice -- GM considers expanding into electric-flying air-taxis. Yeah, that'll work. 

From August 24, 2020, Reuters:

Motiv Power Systems, which provides chassis and software systems for medium-duty trucks and buses, said it had secured $15 million in additional funding from GMAG Holdings Corp to fund technology and scaling up its manufacturing operations. 
The latest funding follows a $60 million funding round last October led by GMAG, Motiv's main investor, and recreational vehicle maker Winnebago Industries Inc. Motiv has provided chassis for customers like Aramark and electrifies the E-450, a medium-duty truck made by Ford Motor Co . 
The race to production for commercial electric vehicles was given fresh impetus in June when the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved a groundbreaking policy to wean its trucking sector off diesel fuel by requiring manufacturers to sell a rising number of zero-emission vehicles, starting in 2024. 

It will be interesting to see if California's electric grid can meet demand. 

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And We Move On

Rigs matter: Trump "boom" sparks record-breaking backlog of big rigs. Seriously. 

But we're not talking about oil rigs, we're talking about the "things" that carry those oil rigs. From ZeroHedge, August 17, 2020. This may have been previously posted; I can't recall, but it showed up over at twitter today.

Military moves: Trump's plans to move US troops in Europe back home, to Italy, and to Poland.

  • from defensenews: moving US F-16s from Germany will ripple far outside the Black Sea region,
  • from The WSJ: Pentagon to move nearly 12,000 US troops from Germany; major European headquarters to move to Belgium; a squadron of F-16s from Spangdahlem to Aviano, Italy; bring some home; 
  • won’t happen if Biden wins election;

Oh-oh: AstraZeneca reports a second adverse effect -- again, a neurological complication. ZeroHedge posts the story published by the NY Times. 

“If there are two cases, then this starts to look like a dangerous pattern.” 
AstraZeneca says 2nd volunteer in coronavirus vaccine trial suffering from unexplained neurological illness; unclear if related to vaccine.

Grand solar minimum: Cycle 25 start date officially established. Wow. And that wasn't a headline story?

  • NASA, September 17, 2020: what will Solar Cycle 25 look like? Just like Solar Cycle 24
  • techtimes, September 16, 2020: NASA warns over "Global Solar Minimum" leading to "ice-age like events; claims a new cycle is coming;
  • Newsweek, September 18, 2020: the sun has been spotless for 28 days straight despite new solar cycle; 
    • according to NOAA’s Space Weather Service, the solar minimum for Solar Cycle 24 took place in December, 2019;
  • NewsLanded, February 4, 2020: mini ice age to hit earth in 2020 and last 30 years, causing extreme winters;
  • "No way out." -- physicist: for the next twenty years, winters will get colder and colder; 
  • Wiki: solar cycle;

California: same ol', same ol' -- high taxes, fires and mudslides. Victor Davis Hanson -- September 15, 2020, in National Review.

NFL today: fifteen games today; one tomorrow (MNF). Cowboys host Falcons today. Day game.

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The Literary Page

Thebes: the forgotten city of ancient Greece; review. The WSJ, September 11, 2020. My posts on Thebes over at my literature blog. 

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Sibling Rivalry: The Feynmans

Joan Feynman, sister of a Nobel laureate, made her own mark in physics despite her mother's doubts. In The WSJ, obituaries, September 18, 2020.

Dr. Joan Feynman, who didn’t want to be completely overshadowed by her famous brother, recalled proposing a deal: “Look, I don’t want us to compete, so let’s divide up physics between us. I’ll take auroras, and you take the rest of the universe.”

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