After This, I'm Done For The Day -- July 31,

Locator: 45267B.

[ERCOT set a new record, but the grid came nowhere close to failing. All of the Texas governor’s detractors are sending governor Abbott thank you cards. LOL.]

Link here.

Simply promoting his new book.

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Permian — Devon

Link here: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Imminent-Peak-In-Permian-Oil-What-Does-it-Mean-For-Investors.html. $50.

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Apple — China

And then this: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/apple-could-benefit-in-china-from-users-spending-more-on-smartphones.html.

Nice to see this just before earnings are released later this week.

Having said (seen) that, I’m still not expecting big things. It’s been a tough quarter.

Apple iPhone shipments dropped 24% in the 2Q23, year-over-year — analyst / source. Link: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/07/31/all-eyes-on-apple-smartphone-shipments-drop-24-percent-year-over-year-in-q2.html

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Jeep — It’s Not Rocket Science 

Link here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jeep-looks-to-veer-out-of-sales-ditch-74ba0a58?mod=hp_listb_pos3.

The Jeep brand has gone up market in recent years with several pricey new vehicles. Its market share has gone in the other direction. The rugged American brand that spawned the modern SUV has posted lower sales for eight straight quarters. 

Since mid-2018, Jeep has surrendered significant market share, falling from sixth to ninth in sales among top U.S. brands. 

The decline came as Jeep pushed into new vehicle categories, including a pickup-truck version of its popular Wrangler and the Grand Wagoneer, a large, luxury SUV priced above $90,000. But Jeep has faced stiffer competition in its core markets, like compact and midsize SUVs, as automakers target those categories with new offerings.

We see a lot of those pricey vehicles in our neighborhood, with a lot of Teslas, in addition.

Why Did The Blog Editor Decide To Post This Story? July 31, 2023

Locator: 45266EVS.

The story, link here.

I looked at this story for quite some time -- couldn't decide whether it was worth the time, the effort to post it. There were a lot of nice data points but the article just didn't have enough of what I needed to post a story ... 

... until ...

... near the end. 

First of all, this story is all about the LA and Long Beach ports. Period. Dot.

But this is why I posted the story. Near the end:

As folks should know by now, I am accumulating shares in Daimler Trucking. Not for me. For the grandsons in Portland, Oregon.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- Is Anyone Paying Attention? Didn't Hear Anything About This Today -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45265INV.

Just out of curiosity -- haven't looked at BRK in a long, long time -- curious tonight.

Looks like a new intra-day high or very, very close. 

Even the bears are coming out of hibernation -- or going back in? I don't know. Link here.

The Lego Page -- COMING -- Friday, August 4, 2023

Locator: 45264LEGO.

Link here.

The Lego Page -- TOMORROW -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45263LEGO.

Link here. 

XTO's Linda 41X Wells -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45262B.

The wells 

• 19504, 539/AB, XTO, Linda 41X-22, Capa, t3/11; cum 275K 5/19; now, back into production after being off line since June, 2019: see update her

•  36424, drl, XTO, Linda 41X-22C, Capa, t9/23; cum 10K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	13	9946	9802	12396	15934	15247	337
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	254	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	2	254	0	760	642	0	642

• 36425, drl/A, XTO, Linda 41X-22H, Capa, t7/23; cum 77K 9/23

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	20	18662	18722	15107	26361	25258	542
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	47421	47649	34804	70895	70449	395
BAKKEN	7-2023	6	10286	10144	7591	11968	11847	109
BAKKEN	6-2023	2	415	0	2080	638	0	638

•  36426, drl/A, XTO, Linda 41X-22D, Capa, t7/23; cum 94K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	22	22010	22106	15198	36057	34558	736
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	59576	59847	35526	92915	92301	544
BAKKEN	7-2023	8	12649	11964	8811	15267	14759	492

• 36427, drl/A, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE, Capa, t7/23; cum 89K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	23	24059	24075	18119	35681	34200	727
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	52330	52671	35797	75394	74914	425
BAKKEN	7-2023	10	13003	12299	13240	13765	13472	278

WTI Just Short Of $82. No New Permits -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45261B.

Rent. Link here. For the archives.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.85. I won't be happy until I see $85. I'll be just short of ecstatic if we get to $100.

Active rigs: 39.

No new permits.

Eight permits renewed:

• WPX (5): Hoser, Loonie, American Elm, Chokecherry, Prairie Rose all in Twin Buttes (Dunn County)
• Enerplus (3): Cadence, Tempo, Octave, all in McGregory Buttes (Dunn County)

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 32236, 204, Petro-Hunt, William 4B-28HN,
• 35188, no ip, XTO, HOFFMANN 21X-6BXC,
• 36426 no ip, XTO, Linda 41X-22D,
• 36427 no ip, XTO, Linda 41X-22HXE,
• 39271, 795, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 1H,
• 39272, 1,120, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 2H,
• 39273, 923, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 3H,

Gasoline Prices At 8-Month High -- Ms Granholm -- You Had One Job -- The High Price Of Gasoline? Refinery Outages Due To Hot Weather -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45260GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here and if it's Charles Kennedy, you know it's gonna be good.

Looks like the high price of gasoline is affecting a lot of travel; a lot of summer vacations have morphed into stay-cations. Thank you Ms Granholm and Mr Biden. 

By the way, we reported it on the bog last week!

As I've said a gazillion times, the high price of gasoline has nothing to do with release of oil from the SPR.

It's all about refineries and their capacity. 

“Gas prices suddenly soared over the last week due to heat-related refinery outages that impacted some of the largest refineries in the country, at a time when summer gasoline demand peaks and as gasoline inventories slid to their lowest July level since 2015,” ....

That same source said the release of oil from the SPR had come to an end and that also contributed to high gasoline prices, but of course, that makes no sense, and why I don't follow that analyst on twitter any more, either.

FANG -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45259INV.

WTI: $81.85. 

Press release here:

• average production of 263.1 MBO/d (449.9 MBOE/d) 
• net cash provided by operating activities of $1.51 billion; 
• operating cash flow before working capital changes (as defined and reconciled below) of $1.26 billion 
• cash capital expenditures of $711 million 
• free cash flow (as defined and reconciled below) of $547 million 
• increasing annual base dividend by 5% to $3.36 per share; declared Q2 2023 base cash dividend of $0.84 per share payable on August 17, 2023; implies a 2.3% annualized yield based on July 28, 2023 closing share price of $145.64 
• repurchased 2,427,880 shares of common stock in Q2 2023 for $321 million (at a weighted average price of $132.21/share); repurchased 397,800 shares of common stock to date in Q3 2023 for $54 million, excluding excise tax (at a weighted average price of $136.40/share) 
• total Q2 2023 return of capital of $473 million from stock repurchases and the declared base dividend; represents ~86% of Q2 2023 
• repurchased $130 million in aggregate principal amount across Diamondback's 2026 and 2029 Senior Notes at an average cost of 95.5% of par (~$124 million) In July, completed divestiture of 43% equity ownership in the OMOG crude oil gathering system for gross proceeds of $225 million 
• since initiating our non-core asset sale program, have announced or closed transactions with $1.1 billion of gross proceeds, exceeding our 2023 target of $1.0 billion

The screenshots:

Perhaps more later.

Utility Bill -- July, 2023 -- Hot, Hot, Texas -- ERCOT

Locator: 45258TX.

Everyone has heard:

• how hot it's been in Texas;
• how the grid may not hold;
• how expensive Texas electricity is.

This month I did not make much of an effort to conserve electricity, and let my wife turn on the a/c as needed, and even wash and dry clothes as she wanted.

My wife is like her Japanese mother: doing laundry seems to be her favorite pastime, especially towels. She could do towels all day long if we had that many.

This was our electricity bill, our entire utility bill except water which we pay with our rent. We do not have natural gas.

Note the average high temperature last year (103°F) compare to this year (100°F), and compare it to the previous month (June, 2023): 91°F.

Average daily usage: 16 kWh vs 18 kWH.

Okay.

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The Book Club

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story: Michael Lewis, c. 2021.

I might make it a requirement: to access the blog one must have this book in your personal library.

I could require a password to access the blog and the password would be the "nth" word on the "nth" page of the book and the password would change weekly.

The book is that good.

I've read the first chapter and the first half of the second chapter. I have no idea where Michael Lewis is going with this but it is absolutely fascinating. 

But no, I won't require a password to access the blog. LOL.

I don't read books like these, as a rule, and to the best of knowledge, I've never read any of the twelve books or so that Michale Lewis has already written, including Moneyball. 

103 -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45257OILDEMAND.

Link here.

In round numbers: 100.

Last time, IIRC, peak global oil demand was around 99 million bopd back in 2019, prior to Covid-19.

Also, speaking of records, as of April, 2023, or thereabouts, perhaps a month earlier or a month later, the population of India officially exceeded that of China. The country of India will gain two US senators and six new congressional representatives. China will, respectively, lose four and twelve. The latter, not to be confused with "four and twenty." 

By the way, speaking of "four and twenty" -- if folks recall, the English language (think Old English) derives from the German. And that's how the Germans counted: "vierundzwanzig."

From the blog earlier:

SAFK -- Going Out To Buy Sophia A New Pair Of Shoes -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45256INV.

This pretty much says it all:

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And, Thank You Very Much

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Microsoft

As expected, of those who replied, none could answer the pop quiz question: name Microsoft's spatial computing headset.

 

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The Book Club

 

Covid-19

Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live, Nicholas A. Christakis, c. 2020.

Notes.

Re-reading what was going on in real-time, in 2019 - 2020, makes me question whether "experts" in microbiology opining today on this whole issue even remember what was happening then. It's easy now to ignore "facts" and opine politically.

This is a very, very important book to have in one's "Covid library."

Apollo's Arrow: wiki.

 

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My Covid-19 Library

The Genetics Of Corona Virus, link here. 

Breathless: The Scientific Race to Defeat a Deadly Virus, David Quammen, 2022. Link here.

Spike: The Virus vs. The People - the Inside Story – Sage Scientist’s Revelatory Covid Memoir -- Jeremy Farrar -- October 15, 2022. Link here.

Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live, Nicholas A. Christakis, c. 2020. 614.5924CHR. Link here.

Wuhan Diary: Dispatches from a Quarantined City, Fang Fang, translated by Michael Berry, c. 2020. 614.5924FAN.

Covid-19: The Pandemic That Never Should Have Happened And How To Stop The Next One, Debora MacKenzie, c. 2020.  614.5924MAC. Credentials: a journalist, with history of "working as a biomedical researcher. Book jacket does not say what her degree was in and where she got her degree.

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story, Michael Lewis, c. 2021. 614.5924LEW. Credentials: best-selling author, to include: The Fifth Risk; Moneyball; Liar's Poker; The Big Short.

Fifth Risk: written during the first half of the Trump administration, The Fifth Risk framed the federal government as a manager of a portfolio of existential risks; natural disasters, nuclear weapons, financial panics, hostile foreigners, energy security, food security, and on and on and on. [He could have included other risks: loss of free speech; loss of rights to own guns; loss of right to privacy and on and on and on.]

This may be one of the most interesting of the lot. Told by a great story-teller. No index. Will have to find out for myself his thoughts on Fauci and gain-of-function.

Evolution

I've read so many books on evolution, I cannot remember if I've seen this book before. 

But, wow, even if I have, it's great to re-visit it.

Evolution: The First Four Billion Years, edited by Michael Ruse and Joseph Travis, foreword by Edward O. Wilson, c. 2009. 979 pages.

Notes.

Rivian: Darling Of Wall Street -- Benzinga -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45255EVS.

Link here. 

From the linked article: 

Rivian Automotive, Inc‘s RIVN standing among sell-side firms has improved notably, particularly after the company reported its second-quarter deliveries. A slew of analysts upped their price target for the shares of the electric vehicle startup. An analyst, who announced back-to-back price target revisions, said Rivian confers all the advantages of Tesla, Inc.

Ford EV Update - 2Q23

Locator: 45254EVS.

Link here.

And more:

As we first noted last week, Ford is slated to lose $4.5 billion from its EV segment this year, a $1.5 billion larger loss than the company had expected. 

So far this year, the division has lost $1.8 billion and this year's $4.5 billion loss figure blows away last year's $2.1 billion loss. Ford also announced that its electric F-150 pickup trucks will undergo a price cut.

But reality has sunk in about the company's comments regarding its EV production schedule and spending plans. Price cuts in the industry, led by Elon Musk and Tesla, have thrown Ford's production targets into a tailspin and Morgan Stanley noted on Friday morning that "major changes to the EV strategy" could be necessary, according to a wrap up by Bloomberg. 

Ford now says it is "throttling back" on plans to ramp up EV production, the wrap up said. It blamed the price war for EVs as part of the cause and told shareholders it would need another year to meet its target of 600,000 EVs produced annually. 

Ford CEO Jim Farley said late last week: "The shift to powerful digital experiences and breakthrough EVs is underway and going to be volatile, so being able to guide customers through and adapt to the pace of adoption are big advantages for us. Ford+ is making us more resilient, efficient and profitable, which you can see in Ford Pro's breakout second-quarter revenue improvement (22%) and EBIT margin (15%)."

************************

Earlier

Earlier this year.

From the linked article:

Ford Motor Company has sold a majority of its Rivian shares, according to regulatory filings. 

Ford’s stake in the electric vehicle maker, which has been dropping steadily since May 2022, is now at 1.15%, or 10.5 million shares. 

The sell comes a week after Ford reported a $7.3 billion write-down on its Rivian investment last year. Since February 2022, Rivian’s stock has plummeted almost 70%. 

Ford has followed this playbook with Rivian before: Report a write-down, then sell to recuperate some of the losses. 

Last April, Ford reported a $5.4 billion “mark-to-market loss” on its investment in Rivian. The following month, Ford sold 15 million shares in two separate transactions, bringing its stake in the EV maker below 10%. Ford’s relationship with Rivian began with a $500 million investment in the precocious EV startup back in 2019. At the time, Ford also said it would build a vehicle on Rivian’s “skateboard” platform. The legacy automaker canceled those plans in November 2021, citing a shift in direction toward building its own lineup of EVs. Four months later, Ford increased its in-house electrification investment to $50 billion through 2026, up from the previous $30 billion by 2025. The automaker also said it would run its EV unit as a separate business from its combustion engine business. 

Other companies, like Amazon, have reported several losses from their investment in Rivian. 

Last week, Amazon reported a $2.3 billion valuation loss in its Rivian stock, which caused a hit to its income. Why are companies paying the price for investing in the promising, if not troubled, EV company? Recall that Rivian’s stock hit a high of $179.47 per share before falling to the $19.62 it is at today.

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Amazon

Has reduced its Rivian holdings, from around a 30% stake in the company to 17% at last report.  Archived.

XOM-DEN Acquisition -- RBN Energy -- July 31, 2023

Locator: 45253B.

 

Fed rate? Americans side-stepped most of those rate increases. Not mentioned in the article: seventy-five percent of Americans are very, very well off compared to their grandparents / great-grandparents during the Great Depression. They can hold out for another year when rates are likely to start going down. Meanwhile, take that discretionary income and put it in short-term MMFs.

"We" have way more than we need. Those seventy-five percent have cars that don't yet need replacing; mechanics these days are very, very good keeping old cars running. Food: expensive? I don't know but if it is, quit going out to eat. One can replace a $60-meal-for-two at The Thirsty Lion with a $10 banquet at home -- assuming one knows how to cook and bake and read a recipe book. Potato chips: quit buying them and watch how fast the prices are lowered. One could go on and on.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: 81.33 

Tuesday, August 1, 2023: 94 for the month; 202 for the quarter, 457 for the year 

None. 

Monday, July 31, 2023: 94 for the month; 202 for the quarter, 457 for the year 

39474, conf, Ovintiv USA, Newman 150-97-21-16-2H, 

39158, conf, CLR, Kiefel 5-36H, 

Sunday, July 30, 2023: 92 for the month; 200 for the quarter, 455 for the year 

39338, conf, Petro-Hunt, Mongoose 149-102-8C-5-4H, 

38686, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513H-1, 

Saturday, July 29, 2023: 90 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 453 for the year 

39339, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17B-20-4H, 

39159, conf, CLR, Kiefel 6-36H, 

38948, conf, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-15,

RBN Energy: carbon capture spurs ExxonMobil's Denbury acquisition. Archived.

A great deal of attention has been heaped on the carbon-capture industry over the past couple of years, from its inclusion in major federal legislation such as 2021’s infrastructure bill and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, plus all sorts of recently announced carbon sequestration projects. Still, there are plenty of concerns that the technology is not fully baked, that many of the projects are not ready for prime time, and that few have the practical know-how to deploy carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) at scale. But what if there was a company that has been doing carbon sequestration for a very long time — decades in fact? And what if that company has built out a huge carbon dioxide (CO2) collection, distribution and sequestration system on the Gulf Coast along with concrete plans for a massive expansion of this network to capture a lot more manmade, “anthropogenic” CO2, not in decades but in just a few short years? A company like that would be pretty much the ideal acquisition candidate for a cash-flush multinational with big ESG goals and strategies, right? As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, that is just what is happening with ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Denbury, a deal that will create today’s undisputed leader in CCS 

ExxonMobil announced July 13 that it is acquiring Denbury in an all-stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion. As stated in the press release, the Denbury deal “provides ExxonMobil with the largest owned and operated CO2 pipeline network in the U.S. at 1,300 miles, including nearly 925 miles of CO2 pipelines in Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi … as well as 10 strategically located onshore sequestration sites.” And all of this is located along the Gulf Coast industrial corridor, an area that has some of the highest concentrations of CO2 emissions anywhere in the world.