All Bakken Wells Coming Off Confidential List The Last Few Days: CLR -- August 1, 2022

My in-box is filled with links to stories that need to be reported, but for the moment, those stories will have to wait. 

I had a long note on "recession" ready to go but the whole topic no longer interests me. I deleted it and won't be posting it. I'll just post "the poll" at the sidebar at the right. 

USAF: the "couple of fighters in the photo below are F-15s, with tail sign "LN," RAF Lakenheath, England. When I was assigned there, I flew right seat, F-111.

How 'bout them Cowboys? Link here.

Later: see first comment. Historical value of the Dallas Cowboys here. Imagine their value if they win a playoff game. LOL.

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Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: drops below $93.

Natural gas: $7.826.

Active rigs: 46 or thereabouts.

Tuesday, August 2, 2022: 2 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 372 for the year

• 38169, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 6-28H1,

Monday, August 1, 2022: 1for the month, 32 for the quarter, 371 for the year

• 38701, conf, Summit Carbon Solutions, LLC, Slash Lazy H 5,

Sunday, July 31, 2022: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 370 for the year

• 38168, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 5-28H1,

Saturday, July 30, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 369 for the year

• 37009, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 3-22H1,

RBN Energy: will the propane market be prepared for winter? It depends. Part 2. 

The official start of propane heating season is only two months away, and inventories are skinny, pretty close to the five-year minimum. Should that be a concern? After all, stocks were at the low end of the range last year, and it was a relatively benign market, with few supply chain disruptions. But there’s a potential gotcha in that statement. Because last year the first three months of winter were quite mild in propane country. What would happen if the market were hit with weather events like what we saw during the “polar vortex” of 2013-14, a winter etched into the minds of all propaners who lived through it? Obviously, the outcome would be quite different.  In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the upcoming propane heating season with a look at the challenges that unusually cold weather could bring.

This is the second episode of a blog series focused on the outlook for U.S. propane markets during the upcoming 2022-23 heating season. Part 1 was mostly a look in the rear-view mirror, covering the huge increase in export volumes over the past few years, the wide swings in domestic propane seasonal demand, and a cycle-by-cycle review of propane price behavior over the past 18 months. The bottom line is that last year propane prices spiked way up prior to the onset of winter due to a confluence of bullish market developments, then virtually collapsed in November and December when winterlike weather failed to arrive on cue. In essence, prices were high when marketers were building stocks and low when it was time to move those supplies to market. That is not the way it is supposed to happen and can be painful for any company not using the most robust hedging strategies.  

A Twofer: Metric Of The Day --- AND -- Video Of The Year -- November 14, 2021

Quick: name the company that generates the most income from the internet as defined by a writer at another site. I'll post the answer later.

See poll. 

Quick: name the state. Video here.

Huge Tease -- This Weekend I Will Post The Definitive Answer To The Week's Most Pressing Question -- November 5, 2021

The question: 

If you were fully invested in CLR (financially or emotionally or however you want to define "fully invested") would you have been happy with this breaking development, that CLR invested in the Permian, in this way, to this degree.

The blog has a reader and correspondent whose credentials are unsurpassed by anyone when it comes to shale oil.  

The individual has provided one of the longest original epistles I have ever received on any subject. The correspondent weighs in on CLR's entry into the Permian.

It will take me awhile to digest his/her comments. But once I have (digested it), I will post my answer to the above question. 

Which gives me an idea, time for a new poll.

Closing out the current poll in which I asked how many rigs you think there will be in North Dakota a year from now (August 22, 2022)?

• 40 - 49: 38%
• 30 - 39: 34%
• <30: 12%
• 50 - 60: 9%
• over 60 active rigs: 7%

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Taking A Break

Notes From All Over -- Late Afternoon Edition -- October 18, 2021

Resident Biden has apparently reached out to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to release / produce / export more crude oil for the United States. Not confirmed. But the real question is whether OPEC can actually do that even if it wanted. Let's go Brandon!

Saudi crude oil inventories were at 133 million bbls in August, 2021, vs 135 million bbls in July. But note: this is the lowest it has been since January, 2002.

Link here. 

Kuwait: the Kuwait Oil Company has reported a third straight year of decline in its sustainable crude oil production capacity, which now stands at 2.579 million bpd. Link here. 

UK energy crisis: another UK energy retailer goes down, GOTO Energy Limited; small outfit; only 22,000 customers. But this brings the total to 13 UK gas and electricity retailers that have collapsed, hitting two million households. Link here.

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Poll

Those who said oil would trend higher today -- 82% of respondents -- were correct.

Next poll: number of active rigs in the Bakken next August, 2022.

The Payroll Tax Issue -- November 28, 2020

If I had to name the most under-reported, most important (okay, most interesting, if not most important) story facing Congress right now, it's the Trump-deferral of payroll taxes (Social Security).

Look at the lede on this story in The WSJ, it's loaded with land mines:

WASHINGTON—President Trump’s decision to defer payroll taxes until the end of the year is leaving challenges for lawmakers to manage after he leaves office in January, and they haven’t figured out what—if anything—to do.

Members of Congress in both parties weren’t keen on the August executive action, which let employers stop collecting the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax from many workers in the final four months of 2020. The move was meant as a form of relief during the economic slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic, but few employers stopped withholding.

That created a predicament for Congress. Employees whose payroll taxes temporarily shrank will face double withholding starting in January, which could pinch households that haven’t planned for it.

Doing nothing could cause harm for those workers, but helping only them could be unfair to others whose taxes continued to be withheld.

“No one will be happy no matter how that gets resolved,” said Mark Mazur, a former Obama administration official who now directs the Tax Policy Center. “It’s kind of like a no-win thing.” 

Mr. Trump couldn’t get Congress to cut payroll taxes, so he used the administration’s ability to defer tax deadlines after a disaster to delay payments of the employees’ portion of Social Security taxes. He promised that if he won re-election, he would push to turn that delay into a real tax cut.

The government offer applied to people making $104,000 or less, who could have as much as $2,149 in taxes deferred. 

But most employers balked, wary of potential complexities and costs of deferring the tax and arguing that the deferral amounted to little more than a short-term, no-interest loan.

“President Trump was waving his arm and saying don’t worry about it. You do worry about it,” said Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.), chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee.

Official figures aren’t available yet, but payroll processor Paychex Inc. said take-up has been very low. 

The one big exception—which could create pressure for Congress to act—is the federal workforce, including many members of the military. Mr. Trump required executive-branch employees to participate. [A lot of military folks, I understand, voted for a Democrat this time around.]

Lawmakers, particularly those from the Washington area, support legislation to let employees decide whether their taxes can be deferred. As the weeks tick by toward the year’s end, that becomes less feasible.

Based on what Washington always does, this is how it will play out:

• Congress will kick the can down the road until Janet Yellen has been sworn in and allowed several months to express an opinion based on internal polling
• in the meantime, Congress will extend the program on a voluntary basis with tea leaves suggesting they will eventually forgive what amounts to a short-term interest-free loan.

In fact, there could be a huge compromise in the works: forgive this short-term interest-free loan which mostly benefits the US military member in exchange for a $50,000-college-debt-forgiveness based on income.

By the way, I have no problem with the latter: a forgiveness of a $50,000-college-debt-forgiveness plan paid for by an "elite" tax on the Hollywood movie industry (to include actors) and an "elite" tax on professional athletes who claim to live in states with no state income tax. 

According to the IRS, payback of the taxes deferred:

• 50% by the end of 2021;
• the remaining amount by the end of 2022

The story said that a "typical" deferral totaled about $3,000 (the actual number was less but I wanted to round up). If so, then 50% of $3,000 is $1500 divided by 12 months = $125 additional withholding each month for the next two years. That's a fair amount of additional taxes for blue-collar workers. 

$3000 over nine months of deferral = $333/month extra money for the military member.

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The Vaccine Poll Is Closed

The vaccine poll at the sidebar at the right is closed in which we asked "how soon will we see universal Chinese flu vaccination available in the US?"

• by the end of the year, 2020: 18%
• by the end of January, 2021, one month later: 22%
• by the end of 1Q21: 25%
• by the end of 1H21: 35%
  

"Universal" was defined as you and me could wander down to the local drugstore without an appointment and get the flu shot that would be covered by personal insurance with US government being the insurer or all resort. 

By the way, all indications are that all Chinese flu vaccines are a two-dose deal separated by six weeks, or thereabouts. It looks like the best regimen may be a half-dose followed by a full dose.

Notes From All Over -- The "Surprise" Edition -- July 1, 2020

Surprise, surprise: market volatility.

• futures down
• market opening jumps over a hundred points
• now late-morning, Dow down 60 points
• headline: ADP data disappoints
• hunch: this will be forgotten by 2:00 p.m. EDT this later today
• AAPL: still holding on -- up about half a percent
• TSLA: up 4.4%; up almost $50; apparently sets "new record"; market value surges past Toyota; 

Later, 10:58 a.m. CDT: market turns green -- Pfizer sparks "vaccine hopes." LOL.

On another note, that poll at the sidebar on the right -- which pharmaceutical company would get the government nod -- appears to be a bust. It was posted about three weeks ago when there were reports that the federal government would pick one of five leading pharmaceutical companies to take on the US corona virus vaccine program -- but to date, nothing. So the poll comes down. I've lost interest.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Taxes: no more delays. IRS says "tax filing deadline" won't be extended past July 15, 2020.

TCM: "Government Girl." Wouldn't have posted a note about this show, but it appears Ed Norton channeled Sonny Tufts when Ed Norton spoke about "love" in "Birdman." Amazing. 
The "government girl": Olivia de Havilland. This clip from "Birdman":

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Almost forget, EIA weekly data out today.

Link here:

• US crude oil in storage: 535.5 million bbls; a whopping 15% above an already-fat level of storage; down from 16% last week;
• US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping (there's that word again) 7.2 million bbls from the previous week;
• refineries operating at 75.5% capacity; pretty much unchanged;
• jet fuel supplied was down 60.0% compared with same four-week period last year; again, pretty much unchanged
• US crude oil imports, at 6.0 million bpd, the four-week average of 6.5 million bpd
• WTI; immediate reading -- pretty much unchanged

Re-balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage	Above/Below 5-Year Average
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 71	April 8, 2020	15.2	484.4
Week 72	April 15, 2020	19.2	503.6
Week 72	April 22, 2020	15.0	518.6
Week 73	April 29, 2020	9.0	527.6
Week 74	May 6, 2020	4.6	532.2
Week 75	May 13, 2020	-0.7	531.5
Week 76	May 20, 2020	-5.0	526.5
Week 77	May 28, 2020	7.9	534.4
Week 78	June 3, 2020	-2.1	532.3
Week 79	June 10, 2020	5.7	538.1
Week 80	June 17, 2020	1.2	539.3	15%
Week 81	June 24, 2020	1.4	540.7	16%
Week 82	July 1, 2020	-7.2	533.5	15%

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 5	4/11/2020	-39.70%
Week 6	4/18/2020	-53.60%
Week 7	4/24/2020	-61.60%
Week 8	5/1/2020	-66.60%
Week 9	5/8/2020	-68.50%
Week 10	5/15/2020	-67.90%
Week 11	May 22, 2020	-66.60%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	-68.70%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	-63.70%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	-62.30%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	-62.50%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	-60.00%

Imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365	-19.700%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410
Week 9	May 13, 2020	5.4	-0.321	-26.100%
Week 10	May 20, 2020	5.2	-0.194
Week 11	May 28, 2020	7.2	2.000	-16.400%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	6.2	-1.000	-18.300%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000	-13.300%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	6.6	-0.222	-10.000%
Week 15	June 24, 2020	6.5	-0.102	-11.600%
Week 16	July 1, 2020	6.5	-0.600	-11.300%