Ramblings On A Tuesday Night; Buffett Buys More OXY -- March 7, 2023

Buffett: keeps buying OXY, link here. Warren Buffett / BRK tracked here.

Poolside:

• 70°F, humid -- very humid, calm; overcast; perfect for reading, blogging;
• I read the most depressing essay in The New Yorker today:
• "The End of the English Major," enrollment in the humanities in in free fall at colleges around the country. What happened?
• the subject is incredibly depressing; I was unable to find one silver lining in the 11-page essay, but worse, after reading nine pages of it and skimming the last two pages, I don't think I learned one thing from the article. Seldom do I read an 11-page essay in The New Yorker and not learn one thing. Ouch. 
• the universities have no one to blame but themselves if they are unhappy with the current situation, but I don't think they care.
  

Paragraph after paragraph with nothing but depressing anecdotes, but I don't think anything was more depressing than this paragraph:

"Young people are very, very concerned about the ethics of representation, of cultural interaction -- all these kinds of things that, actually, we think about a lot!" Amanda Claybaugh, Harvard's dean of undergraduate education and an English professor, told me last fall.

She was one of several teachers who described an orientation toward the present, to the extent that many students lost their bearings in the past. "The last time I taught The Scarlet Letter, I discovered that my students [remember, this is Harvard] were really struggling to understand sentences as sentences -- like, having trouble identifying the subject and very," she said. "Their capacities are different, and the nineteenth century is a long time ago."

My mind immediately turned to Karine Jean-Pierre whose first language was not English.

Phosphorus: This is a particularly "good" issue of The New Yorker for me. "Elemental Need: phosphorus helped save our way of life -- and now threatens to end it." Elizabeth Kolbert, p. 24 - 27, inclusive.

Of all things, the article explains why the US ended up with so many far-flung islands in the Pacific, including Midway Atoll, in the North Pacific. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Investing: wow, I'm in a great mood. 

I got out of my comfort zone today and bought a few shares of RACE. Wow. I put all new money into "a 40-30-20-5-5 allotment," investing twice a month, the second and fourth week of every month. The "20" used to be 20% in oil but I'm so overweight in oil that I want to replace "oil" with something else. Today, that 20% went into RACE. My portfolio has about the same number of equities. I sold off all my Pfizer some time ago -- a one-trick pony that will struggle. Replaced PFE with RACE. I still don't know what the "20" will be going forward, but maybe for the time being RACE.

So, what else is new. I don't know. I'm working on the summer project that I will share with Sophia. I've still not told anyone ... can't wait to share it with "you." Maybe next week, this time.

Schiphol Is The Outlier -- Excess Mortality In The Age Of Covid -- March 7, 2023

For those playing along, this is the third of three posts.

The answer: Schiphol.

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, known informally as Schiphol Airport, is the main international airport of the Netherlands.

It is the world's third busiest airport by international passenger traffic in 2021.

With almost 72 million passengers in 2019, it is the third-busiest airport in Europe in terms of passenger volume and the busiest in Europe in terms of aircraft movements.

With an annual cargo tonnage of 1.74 million, it is the 4th busiest in Europe.

In addition: The airport is built on the single-terminal concept: one large terminal split into three large departure halls.

Schiphol is the hub for KLM and its regional affiliate KLM Cityhopper as well as for Corendon Dutch Airlines, Martinair, Transavia and TUI fly Netherlands. The airport also serves as a base for EasyJet. 

The big hint: England was not in the original graphic. England would have joined the Netherlands as the other outlier due to Heathrow.

More:

Schiphol Airport ranked as Europe's third busiest and the world's eleventh busiest by total passenger traffic in 2017 (12th in 2016, 14th in 2015, 2014 and 2013 and 16th in 2012).

It also ranks as the world's fifth busiest by international passenger traffic and the world's sixteenth busiest for cargo tonnage.

A record 71,706,999 passengers passed through the airport in 2019, just before the pandemic

Schiphol's main competitors in terms of passenger traffic and cargo throughput are London-Heathrow, Frankfurt, Madrid, Paris–Charles de Gaulle and Istanbul.

In 2019, just before the pandemic, 70.5% of passengers using the airport flew to and from Europe, 10.6% to and from North America and 10.1% to and from Asia; cargo volume was mainly between Schiphol and Asia (46.3%) and North America (17.6%).

In 2019, 102 carriers provided a total of 332 destinations on a regular basis.

And making things wonderful for the virus: the airport is built as one large terminal (a single-terminal concept), split into three large departure halls, which connect again once airside.

KLM and China:

The partnership with China Southern Airlines and its subsidiary Xiamen Airlines is key to our China strategy.

We have a joint venture on 6 routes and about 40 codeshare destinations beyond KLM’s gateways in China, supporting KLM’s operations in Greater China, including Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Together with China Southern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines, Amsterdam remains the leading gateway from Europe to China and from China to Europe with 8 destinations served non-stop from Amsterdam.

Together with its partners, KLM offers 67 flights a week to Greater China.

***************************
The Netherlands Is The Outlier

Previously:

Previously: if you are playing this game, this is the second of three posts -- in the following chart, there is one outlier and only one outlier and it's not Sweden:

The one outlier is The Netherlands.

The last note, the third of three notes will explain the reason why The Netherlands has an excess mortality in the same range -- 11% to 12% as Greece, Spain, Estonia, etc., when The Netherlands should be grouped with Norway / Sweden (4 - 5%) or typical western European countries (Belgium, Germany, France) at 8% to 9%.

The Netherlands has/have nothing in common with Greece, Spain, Estonia and yet that's where The Netherlands ended up. The Netherlands should have ended up with a much lower excess mortality had they been similar to the other Nordic / Northern European countries.

Now, for the third and last post, to be posted tomorrow, why was The Netherlands, at almost 12%, almost 3x that of Sweden?

The game is afoot.

Hint: England is not on the list, although Ireland is. And Ireland, at 8.0% is about twice that of Sweden.

Original Post

Start here, see this post, to play this game.

This note is the first of three parts to the denouement.

This (below) is what jumped out at me when I saw the original chart (at the link above). 

The grouping: similar nations with similar percent of "excess deaths," similar outcomes.

So, now, after looking at the groupings, look for the one outlier. There is one outlier and it's not Sweden.

By the way, I got a great note from a reader from Scandinavia.

My reply to the note above:

Thank you.

That is incredibly helpful --- the note about seniors in Sweden getting their vaccinations, and, the difference between the Protestant and Catholic countries.

I think you will enjoy seeing what I think is the outlier and why that country was an outlier. Your note helped immensely. Thank you.

Another reader also suggested Iceland, but Iceland is not the outlier. When the outlier is pointed out, it will jump right out at you. You will not be able to "un-see" it.

The 21st Century -- America's Century -- March 7, 2023

Rail: Siemens announces a new $220 million rail manufacturing facility in North Carolina. Speaks volumes about "the future" of America. Link here.

• Lexington, North Carolina
• on I-85, about 2/3rds of the way from Charlotte, NC, on the way to Greensboro, NC
  
• will build passenger cars
• production to begin next year (2024)
• an infrastructure law that Congress passed in 2021 is injecting funds into U.S. rail and transit operations

Pet peeve: presenters and anchors on CNBC seem unable to think strategically.  At most, it seems they cannot think any further (farther?) out than JPow's next congressional visit.

******************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $77.58.

Natural gas: $2.687.

No new permits.

Nuclear Energy Is Dead -- March 7, 2023

Back in 2018:

Nuclear plant: too big to fail.

Owners of the last remaining nuclear-power plant under construction in the U.S. agreed to keep working, even as rising costs and unpredictable financial risks threaten the half-built project.

After several days of closed-door negotiations, lawsuits and intense political pressure to craft a deal, the owners agreed to finish work on the Alvin W. Vogtle Electric Generating Plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, US.

The owners have been struggling for the past couple of years after the designer and lead construction contractor, Westinghouse Electric Co., filed for bankruptcy after costs rose and the project fell years behind schedule. Earlier this year, Southern said the costs had risen again, this time by $2.2 billion. This pushed the total cost estimate above $27 billion, more than twice the original estimate.

The companies faced what amounted to a no-win proposition. If they walked away, they would have faced a political storm over who should pay for the massive sunk costs of the project, which wouldn’t generate any additional electricity but could require customers to pay higher electric rates. But staying meant taking on growing risk that the project’s budget would continue rising.

They faced political pressure. State officials, including Gov. Nathan Deal, urged them to continue work, citing the more than 6,000 construction jobs. The federal Department of Energy also said it would seek an accelerated repayment of loans to the project if work was halted.

Today: 

The Vogtle Unit 3 nuclear power reactor has safely reached initial criticality, a milestone toward full commercial operations expected later this year in what would be the first new nuclear reactor in the United States starting activity since 2016. Vogtle Unit 3 has safely reached initial criticality, Georgia Power, Southern Nuclear, and Westinghouse Electric Company said this week.

I have no idea what the final cost was for this reactor but back in 2018, five years ago, "Southern said the costs had risen again, this time by $2.2 billion. This pushed the total cost estimate above $27 billion, more than twice the original estimate."

But on May 15, 2022: 250% over budget.

• Vogtle 3 and 4 stations are now likely to cost roughly $34 billion.
• Nuclear power continues to fail to gain commercial respectability in the U.S.
• The Vogtle plant is up to 10 times more expensive than alternative projects in Europe.

This was not a nuclear project, this was a "jobs program."

Nuclear energy, in the US, is dead, as far as my investing lifetime is concerned. 

At 5%, $32 billion yields: $1.6 billion annually. 

Cost of electricity by state, link here:

We'll come back in five years and see what electricity costs in South Carolina.

Most Interesting Energy Story Today -- March 7, 2023

For those following "Focus on Fracking," this story is well known. It has been reported every Sunday night for as long as I can remember. 

"Focus on Fracking" is tracked at the sidebar at the right.

Today, from oilprice.com: 

From the linked oilprice article: 

In the latest weekly petroleum status report, the data from the Energy Information Administration showed last week that the adjustment – the balancing item – was at 2.266 million barrels per day (bpd). That was equal to the highest adjustment since reporting data in that form began in 2001. U.S. crude oil exports were also the highest on record in the weekly data for the week to February 24—at 5.629 million bpd, per EIA data.

The "balancing item"? Some would call it a fudge factor. As long as the fudge factor remained less thana million bpd the EIA was willing to ignore it, but 2.266 million bbls! Wow. 

Headlines -- March 7, 2023

Updates

Later, 9:47 a.m. CT: extremely bullish for those with a 30-year horizon. 

Later, 9:36 a.m. CT: JPow threaded the needle very well. He clearly telegraphed that the Fed will definitely increase the "rate" at the next meeting (March, 2023). He also telegraphed that the Fed will (likely) raise the rate by 50 points. 

Had he said the Fed would move sooner and higher than the expected 25 basis points at the next meeting (March, 2023), the market would have fallen much farther than it did after his remarks today.

The market in early trading, during his testimony, reflects a raise of 25 basis points in March, 2023. The market is waiting to see whether it will be a full 50 basis points.

His remarks were made in an attempt to slow the exuberance of the market without killing it, knowing that the "rate" will be 50 basis points higher by June, 2023.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

Recession? What recession? Link here.

Recession? What recession?

• Dick's huge beat; link here.
• doubles its dividend

Motley Fool: 

• RIVN: link here.
• willing to take a bet; small window of opportunity for Rivian
• no hurry for investors to jump in
  

Barron's:

• INTC: link here.
• discusses Intel's decision to outsource manufacturing to TSM

West coast ports:

• Freightwaves: link here.
• beleaguered; apparently no backlog any more; LOL

The WSJ: several interesting stories

• E-bike battery fires; that's why I don't charge Sophia's hoverboard in thee garage overnight
• Toblerone: needs to comply with Swiss law;
• Lego: beating Barbie and Monopoly;
• the southern surge: this issue no longer concerns me
  

China sounds alarm.

• South China Morning Post; link here.
• fears Apple moving to India;
• bullish for Apple; now we have India, China, Vietnam, Indonesia vying for Apple manufacturing;

Tesla:

• Yahoo!Finance: link here.
• for the archives; I had forgotten how expensive Teslas are;

EU natural gas:

• social media: link here.
• to establish its own "buying cartel"

Ukraine:

• ZeroHedge: link here.
• great visual;

Here we go:

• MacRumors: link here.

Apple:

• I won't even mention AR headsets. LOL. I just did. 

Investing:

• this would be the week I invest (second and fourth week each month);
• it's likely I will wait until next week, or late this week;
• will wait until after stock market dust settles after JPow's remarks

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 7, 2023

Active rigs: 43.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $79.84.

Natural gas: $2.602.

Thursday, March 9, 2023: 34 for the month; 196 for the quarter, 196 for the year
39142, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 4-20H
39136, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 5-5HH,

Wednesday, March 8, 2023: 32 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year
None.

Tuesday, March 7, 2023: 32 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 194 for the year
38750, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-6HLW,
36480, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-8H3A,
36479, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9HA,
30861, conf, BR, Cleetwood 11-27TFH-A,

RBN Energy: is New England headed for an electricity supply crisis? Archived.

New England’s aggressive effort to decarbonize is a tangled web. Over the past several years, the six-state region has replaced oil- and coal-fired power plants with natural gas-fired ones but most proposals to build new gas pipeline capacity have been rejected. It’s also made ambitious plans to add renewables — especially solar and offshore wind — to its power generation mix but many of the largest, most impactful projects have been delayed or canceled. And now there’s a big push to electrify space heating and transportation, which will significantly increase power demand, especially during the winter months, when New England’s electric grid is already skating on thin ice. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the region’s looming power supply challenges and how its energy transition plans may affect natural gas, LNG, heating oil and propane markets.