Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate -- July 8, 2022

Both graphs from the same "BLS" website.

The first graph is this link: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm.

If you go to that link and then click on the chart and click to "open/chart" all demographics, one gets this:

The y-axis makes "all" the difference. 

Huge changes as seen in June, 2020, are easily explained away. And when the y-axis is spread from 20% to 80%, the marked drop in June, 2020, isn't all that remarkable, except maybe for "16 to 19 year olds."

MRO Halo Effect In Bailey Oil Field -- Again, For The Umpteenth Time -- July 8, 2022

See this post.

Earlier wells in SWSE / SWSW 12-146-94:

• 16654, 311, MRO, Buehner 34-12H, Bailey, t8/07; cum 478K 5/22; of interest:

BAKKEN	3-2020	31	25299	25245	25630	29121	19307	8094
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	27971	27918	29702	28620	0	26754
BAKKEN	1-2020	27	24594	24690	29631	24984	4100	19202
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	43129	43271	54234	39080	5958	24698
BAKKEN	11-2019	7	20602	20107	25715	16561	0	14152
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	80	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	28	1536	1548	753	1285	690	418
BAKKEN	5-2019	9	323	231	421	298	84	160
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	18	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	12	306	369	78	311	179	91
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	843	827	319	798	49	653
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	924	914	223	846	324	421

• 16993, 125, MRO, Buehner 44-12H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 261K 5/22; off line 5/22; of interest --

BAKKEN	11-2018	30	4139	4068	1327	2704	160	2143
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	4685	4643	1736	2976	1101	1433
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	4887	4926	1854	3015	1841	721
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	5616	5674	2840	3561	2840	216
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	6028	5937	3620	3598	2266	798
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	5782	5652	4868	4428	2910	1005
BAKKEN	5-2018	13	1971	1809	3304	1513	603	674
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	222	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	1	52	0	3	44	0	37
BAKKEN	11-2017	14	435	486	58	396	274	17
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	859	909	250	1201	86	861
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	845	794	150	837	214	420

The other wells:

• 36735, AL/A, MRO, Ritter 34-12TFH, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 335K 5/22;
• 36736, AL/A, MRO, Emil 24-12TFH, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 252K 5/22;
• 36737, AL/A, MRO, Kloster 24-12H, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 406K 5/22; of note:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	6967	6408	20406	9719	6405	2600
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	67	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	3	569	945	375	1285	939	285
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	6699	6597	5126	11582	10645	305
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	6707	6823	5651	11866	10665	554

• 38304, drl/A, MRO, Goth 44-11H, first production, 3/22; t--; cum 81K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	28711	28755	21946	27046	26212	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	26184	26170	19826	21388	20632	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	26	26019	25700	15226	23296	22536	0

• 38305, drl/A, MRO, Stein 14-12TFH, posted elsewhere;
• 38306, drl/A, MRO, Ebert 14-12H, posted elsewhere;
• 38307, drl/A, MRO, Emiley 14-12TFH, posted elsewhere;
• 38308, conf, MRO, Jarman 24-12TFH, no production data,
  

Week 27: July 3, 2022 -- July 9, 2022.

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.
• Former Japanese prime minister assassinated.
  
• Elon Musk walks away from twitter.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• The Ukraine war drags on.

Top international energy story:

• Top energy stories, Oilprice.

Top national non-energy story:

• "January 6th" hearings continue — compelling.

Top national energy story:

• President Biden shifts from high gasoline prices to abortion "rights"
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

WTI Surges Over Two Percent; Up Over $2; Trading Near $105 -- July 8, 2022

Twitter deal off: Elon Musk.

ERCOT: held, with power to spare.

• in the DFW area, hottest day so far this year: 106°F

Griner: pleads guilty.

• punishment in Russia for less than one gram of hashish / marijuana: 15 days in jail
• prosecutor: Griner had 0.702 grams
• she plead guiltys; sentenced to 15 days; time served; release and head home
• what's the big deal?

Putin: starting to sound desperate. Reminds me of the Nikita Khrushchev "we will bury you" speech.

• the most interesting data point to note: a lot of folks are asking why the Germans don't simply re-start their nuclear power plants. Even if the Germans made their decision to re-start their nuclear plants today, it would take a minimum of five years to get the "pieces in order" and then pass safety and regulatory inspections. In other words, a change in policy would not solve the problem the Germans are facing this winter.
• the best the Germans can do right now is declare "natural gas" a "green" energy -- which they have done, along with nuclear energy
  

Natural gas: a reader sent me a link to an analyst's newsletter suggesting the natural gas crisis facing Europe will eventually spread to the US, resulting in similarly high natural gas prices here in the US. The analyst's job is to sell subscriptions to his/her newsletter. In fact, any analyst who suggests a natural gas crisis in the US like that in Europe has not followed the Freeport LNG story.

• the Houston Chronicle provided an update to the Freeport LNG story today; no paywall, but I assume that is subject to change
  

**************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $104.80

Active rigs: 42 or thereabouts

No new permits.

Seven permits renewed:

• Hess: six SC-JW Hamilton permits, Williams County; and, RS-State E in Mountrail County

Also, seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30260, 3,115, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-2, Alkali Creek, no production data,
• 38231, 2,414, MRO, WR Connoly 31-14H, Bailey, first production, 3/22; t--; cum 70K 5/22 --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	26928	26695	29134	22884	20143	836
BAKKEN	4-2022	24	21839	21957	28828	18156	15768	838
BAKKEN	3-2022	12	20824	20397	32576	15338	9945	3955

• 38232, 2,204, MRO, Frieda 31-14TFH, Bailey, first production, 3/22; t--; cum 60K 5/22 --
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	25527	25299	30337	22352	19732	809
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	20174	20186	27903	17141	14519	1173
BAKKEN	3-2022	12	14513	14215	27753	13689	7470	5244

• 38304, 1,622, MRO, Goth 44-11H, Bailey, first production, 3/22; t--; cum 81K 5/22 --
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	28711	28755	21946	27046	26212	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	26184	26170	19826	21388	20632	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	26	26019	25700	15226	23296	22536	0

• 38305, 2,952, MRO, Stein 14-12TFH, Bailey, first production, 3/22; t--; cum 92K 5/22 --
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	30429	30469	30271	29244	28355	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	27228	27299	29603	23391	22605	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	24	34032	33615	37254	25611	24640	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	2	0	0	22	0	0	0

• 38306, 2,924, MRO, Ebert 14-12H, Ebert 14-12H, first production, 4/22; t--; cum 103K 5/22 --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	30380	30421	30079	27591	26715	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	27343	27551	29808	22358	21569	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	45342	44787	54435	35991	34352	333
BAKKEN	2-2022	1	0	0	61	0	0	0

• 38307, n/a, MRO,Emiley 14-12TFH, Ebert 14-12H, first production, 4/22; t--; cum 103K 5/22 --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	28599	28606	34629	28352	27511	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	23241	23139	32732	20538	19856	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	23	15785	15592	26636	11005	10545	29
BAKKEN	2-2022	1	0	0	15	0	0	0

A Closer Look At That SPR Release -- July 8, 2022

Link here.

Global demand, oil + liquids: 100 million bbls / day.

Global production, oil + liquids: 100 million bbls / day.

Fungible: once "oil + liquids" is/are shipped, it doesn't matter where it came from, where it goes.

Five million bbls. Five hundred million bbls in the SPR. One percent.

Two-thirds = 3.5 million bbls to Europe. 

Threepointfive percent of global production / demand.

The Bakken produces 3.5 million bbls in 3.5 days.

Is Ford A "Value" Company Or A "Growth" Company -- July 8, 2022

When I was eighteen years old, my dad offered me this investing advice: invest in blue chip companies selling for $6, with a P/E of 6 and paying (a dividend yield of) 6 percent. 

P/E + share price + dividend yield = 18.

So, Ford (F) fit/hit those parameters:

• indices
• P/E: 4
  
• yield: 3
• share price: 11
•  = 18

Until this: park your EV outside.

I love the "NASCAR fix":

• add drain holes to an under-hood shield and change the active grille shutters to allow more air flow and reduce under-hood temperatures to below the ignition points of fuel vapor or engine oil.

Exactly what they do during NASCAR pit stops to quell over-heating.  

Really: that's all it takes? Drill a few drain holes and change the grille shutters?

On another note, for investors, is Ford a "value" investment or a "growth" investment. 

This is where you start. P/E:

• F: 4
• TSLA: 102

From there it's an easy question to answer.

A corollary: are Tesla owners buying EVs or are they buying luxury cars?

If Tesla owners are buying luxury cars, then Ford is a value company.

If Tesla owners are buying EVs, then Ford is a growth company.

****************************
Further Explanation

If Tesla owners are buying luxury cars, then they will continue to buy luxury cars and, generally speaking, Ford is not considered a "luxury" car manufacturer. Therefore, if Tesla owners are buying luxury cars, Ford is a value company.

However, if Tesla owners are buying EVs, they will want the best EV for the buck. Ford will compete on price and selection. If all those folks in line for Tesla EVs are more interested in EVs than luxury, then Ford has a huge market, and Ford should be seen as a growth company.

Release The Kraken? Nope, Release The Turbine -- July 8, 2022

Link here.

This strikes me as the funniest story all week. Different media sources have talked about it all week; here's one.

It appears the fate of Europe hangs on a turbine being held hostage. LOL.

So, Gazprom needed a turbine "repaired" for its Nord Stream 1 pipeline that the company couldn't do in-house; couldn't even do in Russia. Couldn't even do in the European theater of operations.

Gazprom had to send the turbine all the way to Canada for "repair."

Are you kidding me?

Now, Canada refuses to send the turbine back to Gazprom, citing Biden's sanctions on Russia. LOL.

So the future of the EU hangs in the balance as the “powers that be” fight over a single turbine.

Probaby Needs To Be Fact-Checked -- July 8, 2022

Link here. And apparently wage pressure is not particularly noteworthy.

A very, very strange recession, indeed.

One can only assume it's all that stimulus money since 2020 that is still working its way thorough the economy.

EIA Oil Data -- July 8, 2022

WTI: before we get started - how did "oil" react to the US jobs report released an hour ago? Glad you asked.

• up 1.38%; up $1.42; trading at $104.20.
  

US crude oil, days supply, up slightly, from 25.3 days to 25.8 days. Way down from high of 40+ days but nowhere near any shortage of oil. To what extent is SPR release helping? Who knows but it is certainly helping China -- US is exporting a lot of its oil to China to help keep their prices down.

US exports of crude oil and petroleum products: most recent full month data, April, 2022 -- 9.527 million bopd which set a record for the month of April.

Most recent export data: 9.57 million bopd.

TSMC: Sales Soar Forty-Four Percent -- Apple's Best Laptop Biggest Design Change Since 2010 -- Sold Out Within Hours -- July 8, 2022

Updates

July 8, 2022: this is simply amazing. Think about this. Link here. Pre-orders were set for Friday, July 8, 2022. By 9:00 a.m., already back-ordered. Demand exceeds supply. Not a bit surprising. 

Original Post

These things will fly off the shelves.

Top story over at MacRumors this morning: Apple now accepting pre-orders for new MacBook Air with the new M2 chip.

Announced in June, 2022, the new updated and redesigned ‌MacBook Air‌ features the biggest design overhaul to the ‌MacBook Air‌ line since 2010, and is the first to feature the ‌M2‌ chip.

The new model features a slightly larger 13.6-inch display, a notch on the top bezel housing an upgraded 1080p camera, a uniform, flat body similar to the MacBook Pro, and new Starlight and Midnight color options.

Connectivity-wise, two USB-C ports are available on the ‌MacBook Air‌ along with a MagSafe port for charging purposes and a 3.5mm headphone jack with support for high-impedance headphones.

The machine also includes a built-in four-speaker sound system that supports spatial audio and wide stereo. It also features a three-microphone array.

TSMC sales soar: up forty-four percent, 2Q22. 

Link here.

Ticker TSM:

• yesterday close: up 7%, up $5; trading at $80.
• today: down slightly along with overall market in reaction to amazing jobs report
  

Chips, semiconductor: link here. 

AAPL: now accepting pre-orders for new MacBook Air with the new M2 chip.

• the M2 chip;
• in-store availability will begin Friday, July 15, 2022
• this is quite incredible: comes in time for college-bound and students returning to college
• without question, for college students, the MacBook Air is "best bang for the buck" -- FanBoy #3
  

Who makes the M2 chip?

Small revenue stream: Apple introduces its brand-new USB-C to MagSafe 3 charging cable; available in three new colors to match the new MacBook Air: space grey, midnight, and starlight in addition to silver, the original color. Price: $49. Comment: folks prefer spending less than $10 for a cable, so this must have incredibly nice margins for Apple.

Jobs: Wow, Wow, Wow -- Exceeds Expectations -- Not Stagflation, Yet -- July 8, 2022

Jobs report: expectations and analysis. The WSJ. Before the numbers are reported.

Jobs, actual: 372,000! Wow, wow, wow.

• Link here.
• Market will collapse. Put more pressure on Fed to keep raising rates.
• Participation rate: pretty much unchanged, around 62%.
• Interest rate has moved up. Ten-year treasury at 3.07% yield.  
• Unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.6%. 
• Steve Liesman does not see report at inflationary.
• "some recession that we're having" (agree completely)
• a recession with 3.6% unemployment and 372,000 jobs added? 
• certainly not stagflation yet
• suddenly not worried about recession 

Re-posting from July 6, 2022: 

US recession: unfortunately for most, this article is behind a paywall.

• it's a very, very long article
• written by one of the better WSJ analysts; generally doesn't write but rather edits
• "If the US is in a recession, it's a very strange one."

The U.S. economy has experienced 12 recessions since World War II, and each one included two features: Economic output contracted and unemployment rose.

Today, something highly unusual is happening. Economic output fell in the first quarter and signs suggest it did so again in the second. Yet the job market showed little sign of faltering during the first half of the year. The jobless rate fell from 4% last December to 3.6% in May.

It is the latest strange twist in the odd trajectory of the pandemic economy, and a riddle for those contemplating a recession. If the U.S. is in or near one, it doesn’t yet look like any other on record.

Analysts sometimes talked about “jobless recoveries” after past recessions, in which economic output rose but employers kept shedding workers. The first half of 2022 was the mirror image—a “jobful” downturn, in which output fell and companies kept hiring. Whether it will spiral into a fuller and deeper recession isn’t known, though a growing number of economists believe it will.

Krugman: Paul -- also doesn't see definition of stagflation holding up which requires a high unemployment rate, and the 10-year Treasury yield is falling. Fast. Today: the yield is below 2.8% -- at 2.794% -- recall: 3% yield for the TYT is the threshold for disaster -- CNBC talking heads.

Krugman posted a FRED graph to support his case. I won't post the link; not worth the time. But six months to a year from now economists will declare a recession or not.

EV Argo AI Layoffs Five-Percent Of Its Workforce -- July 8, 2022

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard.
  
• graphite
• not for me. "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
  
• EVs charging.  

Argo AI: Ford, VW-backed Argo AI lays off 150 workers, slows hiring.

Costco June Sales Up 20% -- Recession? What Recession -- July 8, 2022

Link here.

Also, Costco raises some prices in Food Court. Still a great deal. No one is going to complain. LOL.

Other:

• Levi: beats estimates and hikes dividend. 
• TSMC sales soar 44% in 2Q22.
  

Tesla: Lotsa Bad News Yesterday -- Hey, Not So Fast -- TSLA, Pre-Market: Up 6% -- July 8, 2022

 From Bloomberg early this morning:

Tesla's monthly shipments of China-made vehicles rebounded to record in June, a stunning recovery after restrictions to stop the spread of Covid in Shanghai knee-capped the carmaker’s factory in the financial hub. 

The US electric vehicle pioneer delivered 78,906 vehicles last month, well over double the 33,155 in the same period a year ago and up 145% month-on-month, data from China’s Passenger Car Association showed Friday. An unprecedented 77,938 of the EVs made in June went into the local market, while just 968 were shipped abroad.

Tesla’s monthly deliveries from China sunk to as low as 1,512 units in April with zero exports as Shanghai’s weeks-long punitive lockdown forced the company to suspend production for around three weeks. 

Tesla went to extraordinary lengths thereafter to get the factory back up and running, bringing in thousands of workers under an elaborate so-called closed loop system that kept them on-site, separated from family, and tested regularly. 

Employees were finally let out on June 10, after the plant had resumed round-the-clock production and supplies and logistics were essentially back to normal.

Pre-market, TSLA: up almost 6%. 

A Closer Look At That CCS Pipeline From Nebraska To Wyoming -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- July 8, 2022

ERCOT: grid at risk this weekend. Link here. From yesterday: 

... link here:

Buffett, OXY: bought more? It's hard to say, but this was on twitter last night:

And here, link:

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $102.60.

Active rigs: 43 or thereabouts.

Friday, July 8, 2022: 9 for the month, 9 for the quarter, 348 for the year

• 38694, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Behr 16-21 1TFH-LL-155-91,

RBN Energy: Tallgrass sees Trailblazder conversioon as pathway to CO2 market. Archived.

Carbon-capture projects have begun to pick up steam in recent months, especially in the Midwest and Great Plains, with three major developments already taking shape and the potential for more. At the same time, the need to move natural gas east from the Rockies has declined over time and Tallgrass Energy Partners — a leading midstream player in that space — is looking for ways to make fuller use of its Rockies Express and Trailblazer gas pipelines. 

In today’s RBN blog, we look at an agreement between Tallgrass and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) to capture and sequester carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from a corn-processing complex in Nebraska, how that deal relies on the planned conversion of the Trailblazer Pipeline from natural gas to CO₂, thought to be the first of this scale, and why Tallgrass sees potential in carbon-capture projects across the region.

From a reader yesterday:

• How the Iowa City Press-Citizen is reporting this story.
• How the Des Moines Register is reporting this story.
• How The Guardian is reporting this story.

Wiki entry here.

From the RBN Energy link:

Tallgrass said May 18, 2022, that it had entered into an agreement with ADM that would pave the way for Tallgrass to capture CO₂ from ADM’s corn-processing complex in Columbus, NE (yellow star in Figure 1), and transport it to Tallgrass’s planned Eastern Wyoming Sequestration Hub (orange oval) for permanent underground storage. 

Later that month, Tallgrass filed for Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approval to abandon 392 miles of its Trailblazer (pink line) from natural gas service in order to convert that segment to CO₂ transportation service. The repurposed pipeline, which runs through Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska, would be capable of transporting more than 10 million tons per annum (MMtpa, 528 MMcf/d) of CO₂ to a sequestration hub for permanent storage. Tallgrass believes it to be the first pipeline conversion of this scale in the U.S.

Figure 1. Trailblazer and Rockies Express Pipelines, Archer Daniels Midland Corn-Processing Facility and Eastern Wyoming Sequestration Hub. Source: RBN

Jobs -- July 8, 2022

Jobs report: expectations and analysis. The WSJ. Before the numbers are reported.

Jobs, actual: 372,000! Wow, wow, wow.

• Link here.
• Market will collapse. Put more pressure on Fed to keep raising rates.
• Participation rate: pretty much unchanged, around 62%.
• Interest rate has moved up. Ten-year treasury at 3.07% yield.  
• Unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.6%. 
• Steve Liesman does not see report at inflationary.
• "some recession that we're having" (agree completely)
• a recession with 3.6% unemployment and 372,000 jobs added? 
• certainly not stagflation yet
• suddenly not worried about recession
  

*******************************
Re-Posting

Re-posting, from May 19, 2022:

The numbers below refer to "jobless claims."

From May 19, 2022:

From May 15, 2022:

I remember doing the same back-of-the-envelope analysis in the early days of the blog and coming up with similar numbers. 

Link here. Or direct to paywalled MarketWatch. 

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Assassinated -- July 8, 2022