Idle Rambling, Saturday Night, February 8, 2020

This is going to be a huge year for moon-watchers -- not moon-walkers -- but moon-watchers.

Tonight -- a huge snow moon. It will "peak" at 2:33 a.m, early February 9, 2020, but midnight will be just about as "good." Only two more hours.

And it's the fourth-largest for 2020. That means there will be three "bigger" super moons this calendar year.

Which reminds me of a joke making the rounds after Trump's most endearing line coming out of his "victory lap" speech:

“But now we have that gorgeous word, I never thought a word would sound so good. It’s called total acquittal, total acquittal.”

Down here in Texas, we say there are only three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't.

Back to the skies. Venus has really, really been visible this past week. I'm still amazed that Algore, Occasional-Cortex, St Greta all arrived on the scene just in time to save the earth from humanity. As it is, they almost arrived too late.

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Bakken Graphic For The Week

See this note.

A Hess EN-Weyrauch Well That Had Been Inactive For Several Months, Now Back On Active Status -- February 8, 2020

This page will not be updated.

The Hess EN-Weyrauch wells are tracked here.

After being off line for several months, this well is back on line:

• 20651, A/IA/934, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-2, Robinson Lake, middle Bakken, pump; 38 stages; 2 million lbs sand/ceramic, t3/12; cum 377K 12/19; off line 8/19; remains off line 11/19; was IA for several months; now A and back line, producing. Lots of activity in the area but no recent fracking in the area.

Production during period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2019	12	1522	1452	3409	2084	2084	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	4	338	391	266	595	595	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	4964	4969	1877	9588	9588	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	5802	5922	3920	10348	10348	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	8767	8666	5516	13946	13946	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	6965	6904	6084	11633	11633	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	9	2219	2192	1842	3250	3250	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	39	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	12	582	614	266	1025	1025	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	2067	2068	570	3688	3688	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	2017	2018	466	3235	3235	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	2039	2095	508	3524	3524	0

 

CLR Alfsvaag Well Updated -- February 8, 2020

This page will not be updated.

The CLR Alfsvaag wells are tracked here.

Production data has been updated for this well:

• 30237, 1,782, CLR, Alfsvaag 4-31H, 10 stages, 1.5 million lbs, CMC, t8/17; cum 100K 6/19; "well partially completed; will return once repairs are made"

Production during period of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2019	24	4230	4056	3102	11130	10828	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	24	771	764	930	3033	2874	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	27	533	588	352	2641	2325	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	29	1399	1475	1103	4616	4264	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	1277	1182	1108	4322	3707	220
BAKKEN	7-2019	26	1264	1293	1518	2950	2679	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	1546	1470	1296	4264	3203	721
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1549	1517	1300	5175	4768	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	1626	1729	2083	5308	4915	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	26	3403	3464	2377	6999	6332	392
BAKKEN	2-2019	16	2671	2825	1788	6188	5948	63
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	8236	8134	5009	22161	19825	1934

From the file report:

• change from flowing to submersible pump, November 12, 2018; nothing since then;

Wind And Solar Energy Is Free -- That's Why It Costs More -- WSJ -- February 8, 2020

Reported with a straight face:

For Consumers, the plan involves generating more than half of its electricity from renewable sources by 2040, up from 11% last year. To do so, and offset losses from plant closures, it plans to add six gigawatts of solar power—requiring a total of 59 square miles of solar panels clustered across its service territory—as well as a smaller amount of wind power. Increasingly, both technologies compete on cost with natural gas, and because wind and sun are free, the utility will save hundreds of millions of dollars a year on fuel expenses. 

In the very next paragraph:

The transition will come at a cost. The company says it will spend at least $25 billion over the next decade to replace aging gas and electric equipment and prepare the grid for more renewables, batteries and electric vehicles—major capital investments that would eventually boost returns for shareholders. The expenditures will likely result in rate increases for customers, though Consumers anticipates keeping them below the rate of inflation in the coming years. 

But no, wind and solar energy is not free. In general, all wind and solar energy needs fossil fuel back-up.

An incredibly regressive "tax."

Idle Rambling -- Top Stories For The Week -- February 8, 2020

Top stories for the week have been posted.

Two items jumped out at me.

First, about a year ago I posted a note suggesting that, and I forget whether I said "2019" or "2020" but one of those years we would start to see a lot of wells going over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative. I may have been a year premature, but clearly we're going to see a fair number of such wells this calendar year (2020) but we should see many, many more starting next year. Pretty exciting.

Second, I posted a note about the US being the new "global" swing producer. I think a new term is needed. Prior to the US shale revolution, there was no question that the concept of "swing producer" and that term's relationship to Saudi Arabia made sense. When circumstances dictated, Saudi Arabia could increase / decrease production and or exports, and thus they were rightly considered the swing producer.

But the US is not a "Saudi Arabia." US oil production is not "centrally" managed out of Washington, DC. As long as operators -- hundreds of them -- are making money producing oil they will continue to produce oil. US oil operators don't act / react "in concert."

So, one can't talk about the US as a "swing producer" when it comes to oil.

A new term is necessary.

On another note, regarding the increasingly better oil production in the Bakken, this note was highly interesting and educational: water. It helps explain why the Bakken wells completed in 2020 are so much better then wells completed in 2010. (And, yes, I could come up with fifteen more reasons, if I had to.)

Week 6: February 2, 2020 -- February 8, 2020

Best graphic of the week:

• In the Permian;

Best video clip of the week:

• Nancy Pelosi tearing an official copy of the president's state of the union address in half;

Top international non-energy story:

• Coronavirus: 2019-nCoV;

Top international energy story:

• Global oil, natural gas discoveries hit four-year high in 2019; 
• US crude oil exports hit all-tine record;
• UAE natural gas discovery could be largest since 2005;

Top national non-energy story, politics:

• "Totally acquitted" forever;
• Emoluments lawsuit slammed by federal court, 3 - 0 
• "Victory lap" speech; cleaning house; taking names
• Iowa voting app commits suicide on national television; tied to Hillary;
• Rush Limbaugh: advanced stage 4 lung cancer;

Top national non-energy story, US economy:

• Record low unemployment; huge jobs report; and, here; and, here;
• Record stock market indices;
• Record US satisfaction;
• US GDP: staggering;

Top national energy story:

• US proved reserves increase another 12% in 2018; 
• US natural gas production growth: staggering;
• New Mexico goes over 1 million bopd;
• US record crude oil production;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:

• "No" snow on the prairie; risk of spring flooding diminishes;
• Coal Creek Station in financial trouble (understatement) -- owned and operated by Green River Energy, Maple Grove, MN;
• EIA lowers long-term oil price outlook; will impact ND production;
• Shorter school weeks proving successful in Alexander public schools
• Williston to build hockey complex using old hangar;
• "Prairie Dog" infrastructure money may be available earlier than expected;
• PUC approves $100 million solar project on Pine Ridge Reservation;
• US crude oil and natural gas production increased in 2018, with 10% fewer wells (memo: Red Queen);
• Wind's production tax credit receives 12th extension -- 12th extension -- competitive? Not!
• UN officials infuriated as Donald Trump stands up against global warming;

Wells of interest (see this note):

• Henry Bad Gun goes over 500K bbls cumulative crude oil;  
• MRO's Jerome USA well: almost 500K in first year; 
• Four Enerplus wells each go over 500K;
• A Slawson Wolverine Federal well soon to go over 500K; 
• Petro-Hunt active in the Charlson; wells exceeding 500K;
• A BR Merton well reports almost 270K in eight months;
• Random update of a great BR Kermit well;

Operators:

• New E&P company in the Bakken;
• Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead;
• Hess reports several nice BB-Olson wells;

Operations:

Fracking:

• Mega-fracks: 83-stage; 16-million-lb frack; 
• Water; 

Pipelines:

• Enbridge Line 3 update;

Bakken 101:

• Infill / development wells;

Commentary:

• So much work yet to be done in the Bakken; 
• The Red Queen fell off her treadmill in 2018;
• The US as "swing producer"; see this note;