Refinery Fire In San Francisco Area -- October 15, 2019

In light of news today regarding a refinery fire in the San Francisco area, re-posting this note from May 7, 2010, along with a comment from a reader reacting to that post. From the link:

An explosion and fire ripped through fuel storage tanks at a facility in Crockett Tuesday, sending flames and black smoke billowing into the skies and forcing the closure of a stretch of Interstate 80.

The incident began around 2 p.m. at a storage tank farm at NuStar Energy facility nestled in the hills above the 90 block of San Pablo Ave. The fire ignited the vegetation on a hillside bordering the storage tanks.

Based on the video footage and the fact that the fire department is going to let this one "burn out" on its own suggests this will be relatively "contained." Lots of smoke, but perhaps not a lot of impact.

Original Post

This one tweet seems to say it all -- Patricia squeezed in a lot of data in 280 characters. LOL.

My attempt to figure it out:

• mogas: gasoline
• USWC: United States West Coast
• ARA: Saudi Arabia
• USCS: United States Customs Service
• Vio La Benecia: Valero refinery; shut down for pollution issues; 
• Chv El Secundo: I assume this is Chevron El Segundo, Bay Area; Chevron; often in the news, and not always in a "good" way
• Martinez: a number of refineries in the Martinez area, as far as I know; many issues over the years; Andeavor; "Shell name"; Marathon; [see first comment below: Two refineries in Martinez. Downtown has Shell. To the east across I-680 is the old Tesoro, renamed Andeavor on its way to purchase by Marathon??] [Summer, 2019: PBF acquires Martinez; Shell no longer has any refinery operations in California; link here.]
• "early re-starts": Valero may "re-start" in mid-May?

Hopefully, Argus Media will provide the back story. Perhaps this is "normal" for this time of the year in California.

Reader's response:

• Two refineries in Martinez. Downtown has Shell. To the east across I-680 is the old Tesoro, renamed Andeavor on its way to purchase by Marathon?? 

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From A Parallel Universe

As someone noted, this is from a parallel universe. I had not seen this until tonight: Olivia Newton John, Andy Gibb, and ABBA on ABC. Who wudda thought?

Medley, ABBA, Andy Gibb, Olivia Newton John

Shaleprofile.com Estimates North Dakota August, 2019, Production Up 2%, Month-Over-Month; Legacy Well Production Will Add More -- October 15, 2019

My hunch is that Shaleprofile.com estimates their numbers on pretty good data.

A reader sent this to me.

A huge "thank you" to the reader:

Shaleprofile.com put out a story on the 14th, that ND production was up about 2% (~35,000 bopd).

Their report was preliminary as the Director's Cut not out--not sure how they access the data, but oh well.

Shaleprofile only covers the modern hz production, but if you add legacy wells, of about 40,000 bopd, would put ND at something close to 1.475 MM bopd.

See: https://shaleprofile.com/2019/10/14/north-dakota-update-through-august-2019/.

The Director's Cut with August, 2019, data is scheduled to be released Friday, October 18, 2019.

Director's Cut tag: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search/label/DirectorsCut.

Preliminary July, 2019, crude oil production was:

• 1,442,459 bopd -- new all-time high -- up 1.2% month-over-month

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Healthy Diet

Interview With Sophia.

One Last Push Before Winter? Rigs Up To 60 In North Dakota -- October 15, 2019

Dithering: LOL. Brexit will be delayed at least another year.

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Slow News Day

DUCs: over at twitter --

You know it's a slow news day when analysts are debating this issue. 

I am not privy to the debate to which the good doctor refers. Having said that, the EIA reports that DUCs in US shale regions fell by 206 month-over-month to 7,740, according to a tweet. It would be nice to know the trend; a snapshot in time has no value whatsoever. At least not to me.

My two cents worth: it is virtually impossible to know exactly how many DUCs there are at any one time. Under the best of circumstances, it appears it takes about two weeks for what happens in the field to be reported to the public. With regard to quality of the DUCs, I don't have statistical data, but anecdotally, IPs for DUCs seem to be better than IPs of wells that are completed soon after they reach total depth. Certainly, DUCs are no "worse" than wells that are completed immediately.

I haven't found it yet, but I assume there's a discussion somewhere over at twitter asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

For the record: I track the number of DUCs in the Bakken at this post.

It would be interesting to know who/when/where the acronym DUCs was coined. I think we had this discussion before. My hunch is that DUCs was an acronym coined by the NDIC. Just saying.

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Delayed: due to federal holiday Monday, it appears reporting of some weekly data will be delayed a day.

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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

$52.81	10/15/2019	10/15/2018	10/15/2017	10/15/2016	10/15/2015
Active Rigs	60	68	59	31	66

Three new permits, #37090 - #37092, inclusive:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Whiting has permits for a 3-well Ness pad in section 21-154-91, Sanish oil field

One completed well:

• 06900, multi-formation well; see belwo; New Horizon Resources, Harold Haugen 25-1, Divide County

Two permits canceled:

• Slawson: one Gunslinger Federal permit in McKenzie County
• Enerplu: one Walley permit in Dunn County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35415, 560, Kraken, Dragseth 9-4 6TFH, Winner oil field, t10/19; cum --;
• 35416, 764, Kraken, Dragseth 9-4 5H, Winner oil field, t10/19; cum --;
• 35426, 592, Kraken, Knox 16-21 5H, Winner oil field, t9/19; cum --;
• 35427, 424, Kraken, Know 16-21 4TFH, Winner oil field, t09/19; cum --; 

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Harold Haugen Re-Entry Well

The well:

• 6900, New Horizon Resources, LLC, Harold Haugen 25-1, Daneville, first drilled in 1979 - 40 years ago; 

Scout ticket:

Sundry form to re-enter:

• approximate start date: August 15, 2019
• plug Red River
• enter/perforate: Stonewall/Gunton

New operator: January 19, 2018: change of operator from Earthstone Operating, LLC, to New Horizon Resources, LLC.

Recent monthly production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
RED RIVER	8-2019	17	40	176	928	0	0	0
RED RIVER	7-2019	31	92	219	1427	0	0	0
RED RIVER	6-2019	30	27	0	1202	0	0	0
RED RIVER	5-2019	30	143	214	1375	0	0	0
RED RIVER	4-2019	27	519	279	1507	0	0	0
RED RIVER	3-2019	30	129	0	2067	0	0	0
RED RIVER	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
RED RIVER	1-2019	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
RED RIVER	12-2018	31	146	0	1067	0	0	0
RED RIVER	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
RED RIVER	10-2018	17	113	224	746	0	0	0

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 15, 2019

XOM / Permian: WoodMackenzie bullish. Data points, some of which may or may not be corroborated by other sources:

• XOM running an "unprecedented" 60 rigs in the Permian; up three-fold from just 20 rigs a year and a half ago
• XOM: goal -- to increase Permian production to one million bbls per day by 2024 (this particular quote does not distinguish between oil or oil equivalent)
• in March 5, 2019, XOM press release, the company made it very clear that the "one million" referred to boe -- exactly what a reader wrote to tell me when I quoted a Reuters article which apparently had it wrong -- huge thanks to the reader for noting that; I was a bit "lukewarm" to the reader's report at that time; I was wrong; I apologize
• March 6, 2019, WoodMackenzie said about Permian wells:
• infill wells underperforming
• decline rates from producing wells accelerating

Fujairah: thriving. Another report; may be an old report simply re-cycled. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Permian merger: I think I saw a story earlier this morning that Jagged Peak and Parsley are merging, or something to that effect. Here it is: link here. I accumulated shares in JAG some time ago assuming someone would eventually buy JAG, but nothing happened for such a long time, I finally sold JAG; at best, broke even; probably took a loss. I see that investors are not enthused about the deal. The article said both companies were trading lower. We'll see.

Early morning trading. I must have missed something. The Dow -- showing some strength at the opening -- surged around 10:00 a.m. The Dow up almost 300 points. I wonder if JPM's 3Q19 earnings had anything to do with this? The Dow is back above 27,000.

Privacy? Apple / Goldman Sachs are not (yet?) reporting AppleCard data to credit bureaus. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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First, We Take Manhattan

First, We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes, featuring Stevie Ray Vaughan

Four Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- October 15, 2019

Active rigs:

$53.45	10/15/2019	10/15/2018	10/15/2017	10/15/2016	10/15/2015
Active Rigs	58	68	59	31	66

Four wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, October 15, 2019: 45 for the month; 45 for the quarter:

• 35949, SI/NC, XTO, Bronson 31X-14C, Temple, no production data,
• 35948, SI/NC, XTO Bronson 31X-14C, 
• 35685, 2,465, Whiting, Marlene 21-30HU, Juniper, t4/19; cum 91K 8/19;
• 35172, 556, Zavanna, George 19-30 6H, Stockyard Creek, t4/19; cum 114K 8/19;

RBN Energy: the latest twists and turns in US crude oil fundamentals.

U.S. crude oil fundamentals have shifted sharply in the past few weeks; some changes were fully anticipated, and others more exaggerated than originally expected. U.S. production has risen again to another record-setting high, while a massive decline in refining activity due to turnaround season — and a number of unanticipated short-term shutdowns — has erased a lot of domestic demand for crude. Meanwhile, export volumes out of a few key Gulf Coast terminals are hitting all-time marks. U.S. crude oil imports, affected by international disruptions and refining demand, have dropped like a stone and are nearing 20-year-plus lows. With School of Energy 2019 now in session, it’s a great time to recap what’s been happening over the past month. Today, we look at the summer-to-fall shift in fundamentals, and how it’s impacted overall inventories.