Notes From All Over -- Part 5 -- The Social Security Edition -- October 8, 2021

Social security, two data points, link here:

• it's a given that the COLA for 2022 will be the biggest in decades; but,
• lobbyists say that won't be enough, and want those on social security to get an additional $1,400 stimulus check
• oh, there's a third data point:
• 2022 is an election year and the head of the Democrat Party is not polling well right now
• this is not rocket science

Stimulus money:

• billions in stimulus money but nothing to show for all that government spending
• across the board, analysts forecast upwards of 500,000 newly employed;
• in fact, less than 200,000 newly employed; link here;
• like the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, Biden celebrated the jobs figures for September, 2021, released today; thought the unemployment rate was remarkable;
  
• unemployment dropped from 5.1% to 4.8% but that was mostly because women are dropping out of the work force at alarming numbers -- "dropping out of the work force" -- simply no longer looking for work

Russia: doubts persist that Russia has the natural gas capacity to "save" the EU this winter. 

Tesla: raises prices of the Model 3 and the Model Y; the Cybertruck is now Elon Musk's least expensive EV.

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

WTI: Breaks $80; Seventh Weekly Gain -- October 8, 2021

Link here.

Week 40: October 3, 2021 -- October 9, 2021

Top story of the week:

• Unranked Texas A&M defeats #1 Alabama Crimson Tide
• Joe Biden is still living in the White House. 
• Nominee: "Doofus of the  Year"
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Taiwan: let the sabre-rattling begin;
• Antarctica: record low temps since records began; Arctic ice sheet furthest since 2021;
• Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves surge;

Top international energy story:

• OPEC+ doesn't have the capacity;
• Head fake: Putin won't have the natural gas to "save" Europe;

Top national non-energy story:

• September jobs report; and, here; and, here; and, here; and, here;

Top national energy story:

• WTI breaks $80;
• Henry Hub flows hit 13-year high;
• Gasoline demand continues to drop; no one notices;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators:

Operations:

Bakken 101:

• RTP: new technology;

Wells:

• Amer Renee- R: finally drilled, completed, reporting;
• A very old MRO well production jumps;

Fracking:

Pipelines:

• KMI proposes short connecting pipeline in Williams County; note the price/mile;

Fracking:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Hess With One New Permit; Ten Permits Renewed -- Friday, October 8, 2021

Cryptomining and flaring: see this post from June 29, 2021. Now this from ZeroHedge:

North Dakota and Wyoming have proposed tax incentives for prospective miners to set up shop and use flared gas as power. Other states are passing restrictions to limit flaring, which would incentivize energy companies to either build out their own crypto mining facilities powered with flared gas or offer a new source of cheap energy to third-party miners. 

Crusoe Energy is another company using flared gas to power 40 data centers to mine crypto and plans to expand to 100 centers next year. The company is tackling two dilemmas facing the planet today - the increasing energy footprint of the tech industry and carbon emissions associated with the fossil fuel industry.

CCP's war against crypto has resulted in the global share of Bitcoin mining in China falling from 65% in 2020 to 46% this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. experienced a surge in mining from 7% to 17%.

Active rigs, NDIC did not provide list of active rigs:

$79.35	10/8/2021	10/08/2020	10/08/2019	10/08/2018	10/08/2017
Active Rigs	26	13	56	64	59

One new permit, #38605:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Baskin (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has a permit for an EN-Farhart well in SEE 35-157-93; 1080 FSL and 456 FEL

Ten permits renewed:

• Crescent Point Energy (9): the following CPEUSC permits -- Claire Rose (4); Chase Douglas (5)
• Enerplus: a Brugh Bear permit in McKenzie County

Notes From All Over -- Part 4 -- The JOLTS Update Edition -- October 8, 2021

JOLTS:

Yesterday I asked readers if anyone had seen a JOLTS graphic more than a year old. No reply.

Today, CNBC provided a graph. I did not catch the source.

Re-posting with the CNBC data:

Request for help from readers: JOLTS -- numbers below in 1,000's (so 12,000 is twelve million)

2021, the year after the year of the plague; JOLTS went almost straight up month over month so that it ended at/near 12,000 in September 2021

• in round numbers, it appears JOLTS runs about 4,500 - 5,000 / month
• in round numbers, it appears JOLTS was 7,500 in 2019, just before the pandemic year of 2020
• huge drop in JOLTs during the year of the pandemic

• JOLTS has been around for at least a couple of decades, I do believe, but even wiki does not have a page on JOLTs, which is surprising since wiki seems to have a page on almost everything else
• I am unable to find a graph going back more than two years regarding JOLTS
• JOLTs seems to have become a thing only beginning in calendar year during the year of the plague, 2020, and especially now, coming out of the pandemic
• Later, October 8, 2021: CNBC showed the JOLTS graph going back to 2005
• in round numbers, it appears JOLTS historically runs about 4,500 - 5,000 / month
• in round numbers, it appears JOLTS was 7,500 in 2019, just before the pandemic year of 2020
• huge drop in JOLTs during the year of the pandemic
• 2021, the year after the year of the plague; JOLTS went almost straight up month over month so that it ended at/near 12,000 in September 2021 

Local job market:

• rode my bike long distance today, visiting all the sites I used to visit pre-Covid
• "my old" bike shop had closed; the owner retired during the year of the plague; couldn't get enough bike inventory to stay in business; the building is now a gold and silver store; my hunch: it won't make it either; we mentioned that briefly yesterday: gold and silver bullion is so yesterday; the new hedge: "bitcoin," a metonym for cryptocurrency
• stopped at Grapevine, TX, new train station food hall; this was huge; incredible; much, much nicer than Faneuil in Boston; (and much nicer prices); it's going to be a huge threat to Grapevine's Main Street; the food hall's problem: too busy and not enough staff to manage the volume of customers, especially on the weekend
• Stacey Furniture: which we should call our second home; had a pretty good year last year;

Market:

• stock-pickers' market
  
• I would love to give examples, but this is not an investment site

Duolingo: I did not know Duolingo was a publicly traded company, ticker symbol, DUOL. Today:

• gained $9.61 / share; up 6 percent; trading at $166/share;
• market cap: $ 6 billion
• P/E: N/A
• EPS: -$2.06

Advice:

• earlier this month / last month, among the energy stocky, a "trusted" advisor strongly advised against one energy company: Phillips 66 (PSX)
• today, CNBC noted that "all" of the energy companies had a great month, but the company that led the list was PSX with a 13% gain in one month
• in addition, PSX announced a dividend increase;
• new quarterly dividend:  92 cents; record date expected to be about November 18, 2021;
  
• first increase since 5/17/19 -- ten quarters at 90 cents;
  
• so, there you have it;
• I'm glad I did not act on that "advice" from the "trusted" advisor.

Spotlight corner: Gabrielle Miller. Wiki entry.

Gabrielle Sunshine Miller (born November 9, 1973) is a Canadian actress who, since the start of her career in 1993, has appeared in hundreds of television films and series episodes, including leading roles in two of Canada's most popular concurrently-running series, the sitcom Corner Gas (2004–09) and the comedy-drama Robson Arms (2005–08). 

She was also a regular or semi-regular on the TV series Pasadena (2002), Alienated (2003–04), Call Me Fitz (2012–13), Mother Up! (2013) and Good Witch (2015–16). 

Miller also had a recurring role on the television series Alienated during 2004, giving her the rare distinction of starring in three ongoing series during the same calendar year. 

She was a cast member of the Canadian television series Corner Gas, for which she won a shared Gemini Awards for Best Ensemble Performance in a Comedy Program or Series in 2007[2] and two Leo Awards for Best Performance or Host in a Music, Comedy, or Variety Program or Series (2005 and 2006). 

She is also featured in the CTV series Robson Arms for which she won another Leo Award for Best Supporting Performance by a Female in a Dramatic Series in 2007.

Atmospheric CO2 -- FWIW -- October 8, 2021

 Link here.

I don't have a screenshot of the September, 2020, data so I will post the October, 2020, screenshot for comparison:

Notes From All Over -- Part 3 -- The Apple Watch Edition -- October 8, 2021

Wow! The Apple website is now updated. There is now a "buy" button:

• phone
• iPhone 13 Pro: from $999
• iPhone 13 Max: from $1099
• ATT: get up to $1000 credit after trade-in
• T-Mobile/Sprint: get $400 - $1290 in credit after trade-in
• Verizon: get up to $1000 credit after trade-in
• AppleWatch:
• series 7
• from $399
• most common prices seen: $399 and $449;
• silver stainless steel case: from $749
• multiple new bands/loops
  
• order now
• available starting one week from now, October 15, 2021;

Best hour on CNBC: the city that's on fire with regard to growth, jobs, etc -- NASHVILLE, TN

• Rolling Stones in concert this weekend in Nashville

Covid-19:

• remember the United Airlines mandate? one of the first. Did it hurt?
• today, being reported:
• United Airlines advertising for 2,000 new flight attendants
• 20,000 have applied for those 2,000 jobs

Notes From All Over -- The Jobs Edition -- Part 2, 2021

Unemployment rate drops to 4.8%. 

Jobs: jobless report for September, 2021, a debacle. Labor participation rate drops to 61.6%. Largest drop since December, 2020.

The market: "confused." Dow turned negative when the number was released (7:30 a.m. CT; it happened almost immediately; less than five minutes later (7:35 a.m. CT), the Dow (pre-market trading) returned to where it had been. Now about ten minutes later 7:50 a.m. CT), the Dow has turned negative again. 

Jim Cramer's take:

• Jay Powell: right again! 
• no need to ridicule this man;
  
• the Fed -- Jay Powell -- gets some breathing room;
• Jay Powell can now say "I told you so"; remember, Powell's number one concern has been people -- getting people back to work, and helping them until things return to normal
• the number was good for Jay Powell;
• Jay Powell: will stay the course;
• corporations unable to bring workers back to work;
• teachers afraid to go into schools;
• Cramer has flipped a bit: now feels things are not getting better; seems disappointed; not his usual joyful self;
• boomers have said "enough is enough"; boomers have savings; no reason to go back to work;
• if one is 63 years old, is it worth exposing yourself to a classroom full of kids, vaccinated or not?
• ENDS THIS ARGUMENT: ending additional unemployment benefits would bring more folks back into the job force. Didn't happen. 
  

Others:

• unemployment rate is now where the Fed predicted it would be by the end of the year, but ...
• the numbers were so bad, the Fed may have to slow down a bit on tapering;
• how long will the labor situation last? will last different lengths in different sectors
• leisure and hospitality: even if it remains at a "good pace," the job shortage in lesiure and hospitality will last eight to ten more months -- that takes us through all of 2022 travel season;
• where have all the workers gone?
• retirements accelerated
• child care issues
• "deep resignation"
• not mentioned:
• mismatch in skills 
• the November, 2021, Fed meeting was predicted to be a yawner; now? all of a sudden, the November, 2021, Fed meeting may be very, very interesting
  

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- Apple, Fast And Furious -- October 8, 2021

Bitcoin: surges. Up over $1,200. Now, solidly above $55,000.

Debt ceiling: raised

• next time this discussion comes up: December, 2021
• by that time, we will have earnings for 3Q21
• by that time, we may or not have a $3.5 trillion infrastructure / social support bill
• three words: windfall profits tax

Apple:

• October event. Clear your calendar for October 26, 2021. Link here.
• Apple watches: the new Apple watches go on sale at 7:00 a.m. CT. Link here.
• prices won't be shown until 7:00 a.m.

Amazon:

• tea leaves suggest Amazon will follow Tesla to Texas. Link here: https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/is-amazon-looking-to-leave-seattle.

Fast and furious, headlines and links:

• Ten year Treasury: touched 1.60% overnight.
• GM needs to walk the Tesla talk, link to The WSJ.
• Honda Civic Touring, 2022: styled and priced for people under 30, link here.
• Leaf blowers are evil incarnate, link here to The WSJ. Agree completely. Hopefully California bans them.
• Bacon: high cost. Link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/bacon-supply-chain-disruptions-inflation

Oil:

• one of energy's biggest bears just turned bullish. Link to Alex Kimani. 
  
• Cramer's 180-degree turn; previously reported but here's the story. Link to The Street. 
  
• energy has room to run: JPMorgan. Link to Julianne Geiger. 
• a cold winter could send oil prices soaring past $100. Link to Irina Slav.
  
• Saudi Arabia eyes oil market dominance ... again. Link to Felicity Bradstock.
• PXD announces inaugural variable dividend on common shares, link here. And, here.
• a lot of folks are making money on oil and gas right now. Link to Charles Kennedy.
• Thailand's PTT unexpectedly shuts its state-owned polyethylene unit; huge supplier to China. Link to Argus Media. 
• Canadians in the eastern province are importing oil because there is no pipeline from western Canada. Fact check.
  

Covid-19:

• Israeli graphs.
• Pfizer asks EUA for those greater than five years of age. Again, in this case, Dr Fauci is correct. Not counterintuitive, but the science is there. More than ever. Won't be mandated for years from now, maybe never.
  

Elon Musk: conservative, sane talking head on CNBC -- "we need to cherish Elon Musk." I agree completely. 

Bitcoin: this is a must-read. 

When I saw the headline over at Yahoo!Finance I thought it was click bait. Completely wrong. May get a stand-alone post. Link to Investopedia. Great discussion: what happens to Bitcoin after all 21 million are mined? 

Biden: I think there's a huge story here but mainstream press is not reporting it. If I'm right, the press could have a "gold mine." I may get back to this: the "Taiwan Agreement." Link here.

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; $90 Is The New $50 (WTI) -- October 8, 2021

WTI: the narrative has changed. 

The tea leaves suggest oil is going to go much higher, if $90-WTI is considered "much higher." That seems to be the consensus, that WTI is more likely to trade near $90 than $60 in the near term, the near term being this cycle. More interestingly, "everyone" it seems is saying that $90-WTI is nothing to be concerned about: the market and the average American will be able to handle it just fine. $90-WTI will be okay for Wall Street and Main Street.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, updated daily at COB by the NDIC:

$79.03	10/8/2021	10/08/2020	10/08/2019	10/08/2018	10/08/2017
Active Rigs	27	13	56	64	59

No wells are coming off the confidential list until next week.

RBN Energy: how big a role will hydrogen play in transportation?

When most people think about alternative fuels in the transportation sector, they think electric vehicles (EVs): Teslas, Mustang Mach-E’s, F-150 Lightnings, and other zero-to-60 stunners. EVs have certainly jumped to the fore among low-carbon options, but other possibilities may prove to be even better. One is hydrogen-fueled vehicles, which while posing a number of economic and logistical challenges, could eliminate the range anxiety associated with EVs — assuming that a robust, nationwide network of hydrogen fueling stations can be developed. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss hydrogen’s potential as a transportation fuel, including its infrastructure-related challenges and how it qualifies for credits under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.