Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- May 12, 2022

Dividend watch: whoo-hoo. Both Suncor and TSM increase dividend (fact check me on these; could be wrong):

• SU: to 36.60 cents; previous: 33.10 cents; in September, 2021, it was 16.6 cents.
• TSM: to 46.246 cents; was 39 cents; wow, is that an 18.5% increase?
• a reader reminded me that AAPL paid its dividend today; 23 cents / share
  

Inflation watch:May 12, 2022, "inflation watch" is occasionally updated here:

• eggs are back! Plenty of eggs at both Target and Albertson's
• Target: $3.19 for a dozen
• Albertson's: $2.79 for a dozen
• I haven't had an egg in about two weeks; prior, one to two eggs for breakfast, now, none in past two weeks
  

Natural gas fill rate: this is why I don't follow natural gas all that much -- it looked close; natural gas fill rate was going to drop below the five-year low -- close, but no cigar; link here:

SPR release? Biden's oil going to Europe. Link here.

Europe is set to receive more cargoes of U.S. crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as the European Union discusses an oil embargo on Russia and looks to reduce reliance on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing tanker-tracking data and sources with knowledge of the shipments.

In recent weeks, Europe has increased purchases of U.S. crude as it considers the details of a ban on imports of Russian crude and refined products.

A week after the European Commission officially proposed a full ban on Russian crude and oil product imports by the end of the year, the EU is still scrambling to find a common position, trying to persuade Hungary and some other central European countries to drop their opposition to an embargo.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 30, 2022

Fill rate.

I forgot to post this graph this past week; a reader reminded me. 

My reply:

Thank you. I had forgotten to post that.

Two weeks ago (or maybe three), the fill curve had not yet turned "up" which concerned a lot of folks because by now it should be filling. Some thought it might go below the five-year minimum.

It looks like it won't go below the 5-year minimum and won't set a new "low" record. It has started to turn up.

One thing I've learned about natural gas: besides being very, very seasonal, producers can fill very quickly if they need to. Unlike crude oil which seems to take awhile from spud to pipeline, natural gas wells can be drilled quickly, etc, etc.

So, although natural gas will be expensive and there may be some headline stories on regional shortages, I still think the real story is going to be diesel.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 21, 2022

Link here.

I don't know but social media suggests that natural gas prices are much sensitive to fill rate / amount in storage. I don't know but that makes sense based on what little I know about the dynamics of natural gas fill and release, supply and seasonal demand. 

This might provide a bit of background.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 14, 2022

Link here. 

It sure looks like we are about to hit a new five-year minimum. 

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Biking In The Rain

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Reverses? -- April 10, 2022

I haven't posted this chart in ages. I used to track it / post it weekly, but once I had "it figured out," I lost interest. 

Recently I've come across numerous tweets suggesting that the US natural gas fill rate has reversed, so I was curious. 

So, the most recent EIA natural gas storage report:  

This is just one of several metrics regarding natural gas. My hunch is that the industry can respond quickly to US natural gas demand, and again no one really knows how much natural gas the US needs to keep in storage at any point in time. Obviously, price makes a huge difference. Contracts. 

The chart above covers only a couple of years with a five-year max/min shaded iin. 

This chart goes back more than ten years. If we only had this chart without anything else, where we "stand today" seems completely within "the norms." Storage has been lower in the past and hit a record low back in 2014.

It will be interesting if we drop below the "five-year minimum."