Locator: 45998EVS.
From Barron's today.
From earlier this week:
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
No New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45997B.
Drudge Report: between the lines --
- Ukraine taking back-seat to Israel-Gaza
- Israel trapping Hamas in tunnels -- Hamas talking hostage release in small numbers
- small cells probably acting independently of Hamas leaders in Qatar
- US politics
- MAGA got slammed in off-year elections
- abortion issue will decide 2024 presidential election
- abortion issue: GOP tone deaf; outlier -- Texas, and a few other states
- Virginia: bellwether state -- Dems take charge; MAGA-upset;
- China
- needs the US as Chinese economy implodes
- chip embargo crippling China
- "China ready to improve ties with US 'at all levels'"
- "hostility drops sharply"
- 5.3 magnitude earthquake hits TX -- I didn't feel it
- Disney earnings mixed
- CNBC paints rosy picture
- Drudge Report not so much
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $75.33.
Active rigs: 34.
No new permits.
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 39186, 2,979, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F-4TFH,
- 39188, 1,744, Grayson Mill, Jay 24-13F-2TFH,
- 39295, 570, Slawson, Banshee 3-1H,
Weekly EIA Petroleum Report, Gasoline Demand, EV Sales Distribution, Inflation -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45996OIL.
Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here -- NOTE THIS IS the same report as a week earlier -- the EIA has not updated the most recent week -- see below.
- commercial inventories: increased by 0.8 million bbls; 421.9 million bbls; 5% below average;
- crude oil imports: 6.4 million bopd; increased by 412,000 bpd; 1.4% above the average;
- refiners: 85.4%
- distillate fuel: decreased by 0.8 million bbls; 12% below average;
- jet fuel supplied: up 8.0% compared to one year ago
So, what's the deal?
- API reported a whopping 11-million bbl increase yesterday which was beyond the pale
- today, the EIA says the change, week-over-week, was flat
This may explain it:
- EIA report: for week ending October 27, 2023, link here.
- API report: for week ending November 3, 2023, link here.
WTI today: down another 1%; trading at $76.73.
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Inflation Note
Finally, they’re getting it: link here.
At high-end grocery store this morning, while waiting for my RSV vaccination, I checked a few prices.
Eggs, dozen: $1.69.
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EVs
Sales distribution, US: link here.
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Gasoline Demand
Gasoline demand: link here.
Montana Lot For The Archives -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45995ARCH.
This is the sort of thing I would share with readers by e-mail but because I no longer have access to e-mail associated with this account, I will share some of this information via the blog.
Back in the early 1970s, my parents bought two lots on Flathead lake, each lot priced at about $20,000.
My dad built an incredibly nice retirement home for my mom. He never lived there, but my mom lived there for years -- a very nice retirement for her. They built the home during a severe economic downtown when contractors were looking for any work they could find. Dad hired a Williston, North Dakota, contractor and the rest is history. If I remember, I will post a photo of the house, and its unobstructed view of the lake.
In the 1980s, my mother offered to sell her lot to me for $26,000. She was caught up with the surge in CD returns (14% -- ? -- should be fact-checked) and the surge in the price of gold. She did very, very well with her CDs. She bought a one-ounce gold coin for each of her five children. That was totality of her gold investment.
I have not built on our lot. Recently an owner of the house behind our lot had a California buyer interested in his McMansion but the buyer was willing to buy only if there was some assurance I would not build something that would obstruct his/her view of the lake. I provided a long letter saying I had no intent to ever build on my lot and it was unlikely that either of my children would ever build on this lot. That brings us to our grandchildren -- no indication that they will build within the next twenty years. If ever.
I have hired a local landscaper to maintain the lot and the lot is in beautiful condition. I will leave money in the estate to continue maintaining the lot.
Last year, for tax purposes, Flathead County appraised the lot at $108,000.
This year, one year later, 2024, the county has appraised the lot for $183,000. No typo.
My plans have not changed. I will ensure through my will and other instruments that the property is never sold and that the property will flow to the grandchildren and their children.
But, wow, it's a beautiful lot.
Nearly 50 Percent Of BRK's Equity Portfolio: AAPL -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45994INV.
And other factoids.
EV charging: link here. Expensive unless you live in North Dakota -- MotorTrend.
Walmart: hits an all-time high.
Coal: it's rare to see Biden's EIA report this -- link here. This blows me away -- this is not trivial -- a 51% increase --
Hamm On Oil -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45993OIL. 
Where horizontal drilling was key to unlocking shale — which Hamm dubs Generation 2 rock — a new wave of inventions will be needed to make Generation 3 rock productive, Hamm said. That includes drilling out the so-called tier 2 and tier 3 shale deposits, which are more expensive and require higher oil prices to be economical.
It also includes capturing carbon and pumping it back into the ground to make more oil flow, he said.
Those advances won’t be easy. Rising inflation gets built into the US oil industry so that it needs $75 to $80 a barrel to produce oil and gas, Hamm said. That’s a big difference after getting used to $60 oil.
My hunch: CO2 injection is not going to be all it's cracked up to be -- no pun intended.
Russia's Vietnam -- We've Seen This Movie Before -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45991UKRAINE.
There have been many, many stories with regard to Russia and its military draft. This may be one of best. Link here.
A day after President Vladimir Putin announced a call-up that could sweep 300,000 civilians into military service, thousands of Russians across the country received draft papers on Thursday and some were being marched to buses and planes for training -- and perhaps soon a trip to the front lines in Ukraine.
Putin's escalation of the war effort was reverberating across the country, according to interviews, Russian news reports and social media posts. As the day wore on, it became increasingly clear that Putin's decision had torn open the cocoon shielding much of Russian society from their leader's invasion of a neighbor.
Mothers, wives and children were saying tearful goodbyes in remote regions as officials -- in some cases, ordinary schoolteachers -- delivered draft notices to houses and apartment blocks. In mountainous eastern Siberia, the Russian news media reported, school buses were being commandeered to move troops to training grounds.
Russian officials said the call-up would be limited to people with combat experience. But the net appeared wider, and some men decided it was best to head for the borders.
Yanina Nimayeva, a journalist from the Buryatia region of Siberia, said that her husband, a father of five and an employee in the emergency department in the regional capital, had been inexplicably called up. She said he received a summons to an urgent 4 a.m. meeting where it was announced that a train had been organized to bring men to the city of Chita.
Track the body counts on a daily basis, but the fact is, Russia has an endless supply of potential draftees.
To put that in perspective, the US Civil War:
The war resulted in at least 1,030,000 casualties (3 percent of the population), including about 620,000 soldier deaths—two-thirds by disease—and 50,000 civilians.
Binghamton University historian J. David Hacker believes the number of soldier deaths was approximately 750,000, 20 percent higher than traditionally estimated, and possibly as high as 850,000.[
A novel way of calculating casualties by looking at the deviation of the death rate of men of fighting age from the norm through analysis of census data found that at least 627,000 and at most 888,000 people, but most likely 761,000 people, died in the war.
As historian McPherson notes, the war's "cost in American lives was as great as in all of the nation's other wars combined through Vietnam."
Based on 1860 census figures, 8 percent of all white men aged 13 to 43 died in the war, including 6 percent in the North and 18 percent in the South.
About 56,000 soldiers died in prison camps during the War.
An estimated 60,000 soldiers lost limbs in the war.
21st Century -- America's Century -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45990US.
US economy on a roll: 21st century -- America's century--
- energy
- tech
- military
- economy
- pretzels
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Pretzels
Hard pretzels proved to be even more useful in the thirst-generating department than soft ones because they stay fresh so much longer; bar owners could keep a constant supply of them. In 1861, the first commercial hard pretzel factory was founded in Lititz, Pa., and the hard pretzel continues to rise.
In 2021, Hershey acquired the Dot’s Pretzels brand for more than $1.2 billion.
To me, though, the first and greatest pretzel will always be a soft one, fresh from the oven. Krauss recalls that in the Freiburg of his childhood, pretzels were sometimes used to calm a child instead of a pacifier. There’s just something about those twisted strands of dough with their savory brown exterior that is deeply soothing. As Ysewijn remarks, while so many other historic cakes and breads have become “lost in time,” the pretzel’s charming shape has somehow “managed to save it from oblivion.”
Appeared in the November 4, 2023, print edition as 'The Salty, Soothing Twist Of Pretzels'.
And from Forbes several years ago:
Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels has got to be the breakout snack food success story of 2020, growing from a tiny Mom-and-Pop operation to salty juggernaut that’s now available in an ever-expanding number of retail outlets across the country. Yet it wasn’t long ago that consumers had to hit up remote truck stops and hardware stores in the search for the North Dakota-based company’s pretzels. Here’s how Dot’s cracked the big time.
Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- November 8, 2023
Locator: 45989B.
NASDAQ: up 30% for the year.
Household net worth: cup is half full.
Screenshot, streaming, from bat cave, last night, November 7, 2023, about 5:45 p..m. CT:
E-mail access, update. This all began November 5, 2023, at which time I wrote:
I do not have access to my e-mail account that I use for the account associated with the blog. I will not be receiving any e-mail for an undetermined period of time. I'm not sure yet if I can moderate comments for the blog without e-mail access. But if you are e-mailing me or if you send a comment for the blog, I won't be seeing it. I'm not purposely ignoring you. The problem is being worked. We will know more tomorrow. The blog, fortunately, is not affected.
The Yahoo! folks have been wonderful, incredible. They have a fix to get my e-mail account re-established, but I have not re-established the account. My biggest concern was whether the account had been hacked. The Yahoo! folks did not specifically address that issue, and I'm not sure they would be allowed to, but based on our lengthy conversations, it is clear my e-mail account was not compromised. Knowing my accounts have not been hacked, I’m greatly relieved but it raises the question whether associating an e-mail address with a blog is a smart practice.
Personal Investing
- bought AAPL at the open
- bought DVN at the open; paying 11.04%; and increasing its dividend.
bought CVX at the open; pays 4%; no plans to sell anything
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Back to the Bakken
Back to the Bakken
Over the past couple of years, a growing number of natural gas producers — from global integrateds like ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP to E&Ps large, medium and small — have contracted with entities like MiQ and Project Canary to scrutinize their upstream operations and score their relative success in minimizing methane emissions. By some estimates, as much as one-third of U.S. gas production is already “certified” or “differentiated,” and with growing interest in “low-emissions” gas among domestic and international buyers the trend seems likely to accelerate. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at certified/differentiated gas with a review of the gas producers leading the way.
In this blog series, we’re examining the certified/differentiated gas ”movement” from just about every angle. In Part 1, we said there are a variety of efforts underway to make the natural gas piece of the global energy puzzle as clean as it can be. The primary focus of these efforts is on reducing as much as possible the amount of methane (CH4) — the main ingredient in natural gas — that is released into the atmosphere along its route from the production well to the end-user’s burner tip. We noted that there’s good reason for zeroing in on methane emissions: Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas (GHG), with more than 80 times the atmospheric heat-trapping effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the short term (five to 20 years). That means reducing methane emissions along the gas value chain has quick and very positive climate effects.
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