Misunderstanding Natural Gas Storage -- September 11, 2019

This was sent to me by a reader. I am posting it for other readers.

I can find 50 articles agreeing with the premise of this article, and 50 articles arguing against the premise of this article.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

For the record, I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken; bullish on oil and gas; and, agree with the premise of the article at the link.

City EV Efforts "Could" Threaten The Grid -- September 11, 2019

From "energynews":

Wow, how many times has this been said on the blog. No one has thought this [EV] story through.

Forget the energy source: coal, natural gas, wind, solar. That's not the problem. We have more energy than we could ever use.

The problem: transmission.

Transmission:

• electric lines: high voltage, long distance; and "last mile"
• transformers: lots and lots and lots of them

Fact: it only takes a few (2?) EVs in any typical 14-house neighborhood to require re-vamping the entire neighborhood grid (transformers, transmission lines).

As far back as 2014, even the comic artists "got it":

Gasoline Demand -- September 11, 2019

Gasoline demand: full table. In August, 2017: 302,303 bbls. Over 30 days = 9,752 bpd.

This past month, look at this:

Perhaps a reader will find a data point when the US averaged 10 million bbls of gasoline/day for a week but I haven't found it yet, but I'm still looking. But look how close we got a couple of weeks ago: 9.9 million bpd.

Gasoline production: "we've" hit 10.6 million bpd many times over the past several years, so the next gasoline production will be 11 million bpd, which should happen sooner than later.

The big question: will we hit 10 million bpd demand before the year is out?

"Recession Is Right Around The Corner" -- September 11, 2019

US equity market surges.

• Dow up almost 230 points; closes above 27,000 (again).
• S & P hits 3,000 (again).
• Nasdaq extends above 8,150.

But, but, but ....

• Bernie: resist!
• Buttigieg: change course!
• Beto: re-set!
• Biden: what just happened? We need to get back to "normal."

One can't have it both ways:

• rule of thumb: stock market "looks out" about six months
• with the market surging as it is now, it's hard to buy into an argument "we" are facing a recession between now and March, 2019 -- though we will hear a lot about "October" is the worse month for the stock market
• March, 2020. Eight months until the election. You really think Trump/GOP will let economy move into recession? Sure, it could happen.
• Russia, Russia, Russia. Then, recession, recession, recession. Next: 

Futures, 8:38 p.m. CT, September 11, 2019: Dow up another 149 points. XLNX moving in pre-market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Gasoline demand weekly data pending.

US Supreme Court sides with President Trump. Only two dissents: RBG and Sotomayor.

Wow, what a day.

Equities:

• AAPL: up almost $7/share by the close; up another $1.30 after hours; after hours, trading at $225
• EW: unchanged at $218
• SRE: up 1% to $143, near 52-week high
• OKE: at $74; within pennies of a 52-week high
• T: an old stodgy widow's stock up 3% today 
• AMGN: after surging this past week, drops back below $200
• UNP: well off its 52-week high but showing strength

Nine Point Energy Reports Little Muddy Wells In Williston Oil Field -- September 11, 2019

Wow, for "mom-and-pop" mineral owners, the Bakken wells just seem to be getting better and better.

Now, the Nine Point Energy Little Muddy wells in Williston oil field are being reported:

• 35985, 1,69, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 6H, Williston, t6/19; cum 51K over 61 days;
• 35986, 1,158, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 7H, Williston, t6/19; cum 48K over 58 days;
• 35987, 696, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 8H, Williston, t6/19; cum 31K over 31 days;

Huge wells. 

T. Boone PIckens Dead At 91 -- September 11, 2019

Two New Permits; Huge Jump In Production -- September 11, 2019

Active rigs:

$55.92	9/11/2019	09/11/2018	09/11/2017	09/11/2016	09/11/2015
Active Rigs	64	66	56	37	69

Ten permits renewed:

• Crescent Point Energy (5): two CPEUSC Narcisse and three CPEUSC Austin permits, all in Williams County
• MRO (3): a Walcel USA permit, a Ranum USA permit, and a Prior USA permit, all in Mountrail County
• Slawson: an Armada Federal permit in Mountrail County
• Whiting: a Drew TTT permit in Mountrail County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, this well was spud March 20, 2016 (almost 3.5 years ago); TD date was April 6, 2016 (about 3.5 years ago); 2nd bench Three Forks; from the well file at the NDIC site:

Operations began on March 20, 2016; two trips, I believe; KOP was reached on the morning of March 26, 2016; casing/cemented on March 27th; drilled out the shoe on afternoon of March 28th; tripped the morning of April 2nd; resumed drilling the following morning; tripped again; began drilling again late morning April 3rd; on the morning of April 4th, the directional sensor again failed, and tripped again; drilling resumed on the morning of April 5th; TD without further ado on afternoon of April 6th. So, three days for the vertical; about a day for the curve; about six days to drill the horizontal with two trips, each delaying completion by a full day or so; rare flares, from 1' to 5', brief in duration; 98% of the footage in the delineated target zone (remember, this was the second bench, Three Forks; "this was was somewhat unique, in that we had fair control from the parallel Buelingo 1-20H well to the east of us for the first section, but thereafter we had little data to confirm the structure interpretation ahead of us. Careful attention was paid to the gamma curve and other data, in order to successfully guide the well to TD in zone and without encountering the internal 1 or 2 shale. These efforsts were successful, with only one brief section out of zone. This well will provide a better template for th other eight wells of the pad. It was very important, with the length of the well, to maintain a smooth well bore, in order to not interfere with sliding as we proceeded into the third section. This was also achieved, and the well reached TD without any significant down-hole interferences.

Frack data not yet posted at the NDIC site. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; a huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88.4% water by mass.

Name changes, of note: two XTO HUB Muller wells were renamed "Muller" wells, dropping the HBU (#36830 and #36839).


Two new permits, #36950 - #36951, inclusive.

• Operator: Petro-Hunt
• Field: Charlson (McKenzie County)
• Comments: 
• Petro-Hunt has permits for a 2-well USA pad in section 8-153-95, Charlson oil field.

Note this well;

• 18111, Thompson wells, Petro-Hunt; huge jump; 462K 9/18; in the neighborhood of the new Charlson permits;

BAKKEN	5-2018	30	16177	15974	5943	23619	23407	3
BAKKEN	4-2018	7	2414	2531	272	3432	3383	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	13360	13543	1078	17386	17170	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	12281	12198	1020	15598	15403	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	14356	14462	1247	18249	18033	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	15600	15655	1417	20020	19804	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	16570	16439	1736	21634	21425	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	17802	17794	2319	25838	25622	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	10	6087	5680	1165	8031	7566	395
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	21	1280	1495	122	2318	2172	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	1897	1758	173	3401	3138	54
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	1964	2005	208	3685	3350	119
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	1997	2087	200	3675	3436	30

The Borrud Wells North Of Williston Starting To Be Posted -- September 11, 2019

A huge thank you to a reader alerting me to these wells. 

People will disagree with me but I've never considered the Tyrone oil field, just north of Williston, as a great field. But the field is starting to report some incredibly huge wells. This leads me back to my discussion about "sweet spots" in the Bakken. Over-emphasized.

Perhaps a better way of saying this: not so much as "over-emphasized," but perhaps we need a new discussion on "sweet spots."

Case study:

• 29539, 4,635, Bruin/HRC, Borrud 156-101-1B-12-2H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum 50K over 25 days. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E. The cumulative in less than 30 days is incredibly, but look at that IP: 4,635.

This is simply huge, regardless of where it is in the Bakken. But this is in a Tier 2 field, perhaps. I don't know. Maybe Tier 1, but certainly not a great Tier 1 and certainly during the boom it would not have been considered a Tier 1.

But look at that IP and that 25-day cum. Incredible. 

The Borrud wells are tracked here. 

#29539 was a middle Bakken well: fracked; using 16 million lbs sand over 60 stages.

I would write more but suffice it to say: during summers (or at least one summer) in the late 60s, while in high school David K. and I picked rocks on the  Borrud farm. A backbreaking miserable job.  

Weekly Oil Data -- September 11, 2019

XOM: more evidence Exxon's strategic vision changing --- could sell $1 billion GoM assets to Spanish firm.

API: large draw yesterday -- 7.227 million bbls vs expectations of 2.6 million bbls.

Weekly EIA data: link here. Huge.

• US crude oil inventories down 6.9 million bbls; this comes on the heels of other huge draws recently.
• US crude oil inventories stand at 416.1 million bbls, or about 2% below the five year average
• refineries operating at 95.1% capacity; about in the middle range for what to expect
• total product supplies over the four-week period averaged 21.6 million bbls per day, up 0.4% from same period last year
• we'll get gasoline demand chart later today; stay tuned

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0
Week 34	July 17, 2019	-3.1	455.9
Week 35	July 24, 2019	-10.8	445.1
Week 36	July 31, 2019	-8.5	436.5
Week 37	August 7, 2019	2.4	438.9
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 29	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 30	August 28, 2019	-10.0	427.8
Week 31	September 5, 2019	-4.8	423.0
Week 32	September 11, 2019	-6.9	416.1