QEP To Report Five Big Wells Friday; Whiting With Another Huge Flatland Federal Well -- April 7, 2016

One (1) new permit --

• Operator: BR
• Field: Camel Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Five (5) producing wells completed:

• 30195, 686, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3D, Lindahl, t3/16; cum --
• 30370, 698, XTO, Lisa Federal 14X-34F, Hofflund, t3/16; cum --
• 30371, 1,196, XTO, Lisa 14X-34E, Hofflund, t3/16; cum --
• 30372, 413, XTO, Lisa 14X-34A, Hofflund, t3/16; cum --
• 30665, 376, XTO, Smouse 31X-38H, West Capa, t3/16; cum --

Active rigs:

	4/7/2016	04/07/2015	04/07/2014	04/07/2013	04/07/2012
Active Rigs	31	93	194	187	208

Seven (7) wells coming off the confidential list Friday:

• 30606, 1,090, QEP, Boggs 3-29-32T2HD, Grail, t10/15; cum 100K 2/16; production held back;
• 30607, 1,000, QEP, Boggs 8-29-32BHD, Grail, t10/15; cum 96K 2/16; 
• 30608, 1,995, QEP, Boggs 2-29-32T2HD, Grail, t10/15; cum 78K 2/16; production held back; only 8 days in January, 2 days in February;
• 30609, 2,053, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31T3HD, Blue Buttes, t10/15; cum K 2/16; production held back; only 7 days in December, 5 days in January;
• 30610, 2.202, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31THD, Blue Buttes, t10/15; cum 93K 2/16; production held back; 21 days in December, 21 days in January;
• 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, Twin Valley, Three Forks 2nd cycle, 31 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t10/15; cum 134K 2/16; only 24 days in February, 16 days in November, 8 days in October. Drilled to vertical depth and the curve in five days. Total depth of the south lateral was reached in ten days from spud. Gas: 800 to 1,000 units. Connection gases as high as 7,958 units, with a 3' to 5' flare. At 21,505 feet it's a lot of pipe.
• 31543, SI/NC, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-5, Capa, no production data, 

See this post regarding the Whiting Flatland Federal well. 

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30776, see above, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, Twin Valley:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2016	25529	70724
1-2016	36271	96082
12-2015	42703	106903
11-2015	23015	44393
10-2015	6467	11189

30610, see above, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31THD, Blue Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2016	18793	22787
1-2016	13289	18025
12-2015	12521	22615
11-2015	34114	39846
10-2015	13486	0

30609, see below, QEP, Boggs 29-32-30-31T3HD, Blue Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2016	35674	64961
1-2016	5405	8895
12-2015	4674	9115
11-2015	28011	33699
10-2015	12562	0

30608, see above, QEP, Boggs 2-29-32T2HD, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2016	1520	2135
1-2016	6701	8410
12-2015	19542	29313
11-2015	33834	34586
10-2015	16686	0

30607, see above, QEP, Boggs 8-29-32BHD, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2016	21014	28481
1-2016	21881	29603
12-2015	8811	11710
11-2015	34125	38086
10-2015	10023	0

30606, see above, QEP, Boggs 3-29-32T2HD, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2016	36976	73250
1-2016	14682	25682
12-2015	15426	25235
11-2015	23618	25366
10-2015	8081	0

The Political Page -- April 7, 2016

I apologize for posting this late. I had to get it cleared through the Department of Justice to ensure that my SuperPac was not corresponding with or coordinating with Ted Cruz. For newbies, to the best of my knowledge there are no Devils Lake oil rigs; the off-shore oil rig is only an artist's drawing of a rig in the middle of Devils Lake.

It appears that not only is North Dakota #1 in nuclear missiles (take note, North Korea), but it is also the global crude oil swing producer, and now the GOP swing state.

File under "swing."

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The Biden Rule

Breaking news:  President Obama, at University of Chicago: Senate decision not to consider Merrick Garland for Supreme Court is 'unprecedented.'

I believe the "President of the US Senate is Mr Joe Biden."

I believe "The Biden Rule" on this matter was formulated in 1992. 

John Kemp's Weekly Energy Tweets; Jobs Report Pending -- April 7, 2016

Reminder: I'll be posting today's initial unemployment claims at this post.

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John Kemp: Saudi Arabia's king flying to Cairo to reassure Egypt about continued support. Article at Reuters.

Despite years of mutual frustration and disappointment over diverging priorities, Saudi Arabia and Egypt remain fundamental to each other's security, a message King Salman's visit to Cairo this week is intended to reinforce.

The rare foreign trip by the 80-year-old Saudi ruler will counter media commentary in both countries of discord between the richest Arab state and the most populous, to show Riyadh still backs Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. 

Gulf monarchies have lavished aid on Egypt since 2013, but have grown increasingly disillusioned at what they see as Sisi's inability to address entrenched corruption and inefficiency in the economy, and at Cairo's reduced role on the regional stage. 

At $30 oil, that "lavished aid" may not be so lavish any more. We've talked about this before.

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Tweeting now: Platts --  China targets 13% rise in natural gas, 7% fall in crude output for 2016.

Venezuela: sitting on top of the world's largest crude oil reserves and the country is now "giving" its workers "off" every Friday to save energy. And folks are still supporting Bernie Sanders here in the US. 

April 7, 2016 -- Deep Soil Temperatures In North Dakota For Enquiring Minds; Bakken Operators Losing $6/Bbl Shipping By Rail To Louisiana -- RBN Energy

Breaking news: Victoria's Secret to cut 200 jobs, eliminate certain merchandise categories. I'm depending on readers to send me photographs of the "certain merchandise categories" to be eliminated.

Breaking news: Teen retailer Pacific Sunwear confirms bankruptcy filing. 

Oil  holding. From Reuters today:

Oil steadied at around $40 per barrel on Thursday as a surprise fall in U.S. inventories the previous day was offset by an increase in exports from Iraq, underlining global oversupply.

From the two most trusted names (Bloomberg/Goldman) in oil price forecasting: oil at $35 is the "Goldilocks" ideal for US explorers.

Oil at $35 a barrel is neither too high nor too low but just right to make shares of U.S. explorers worth buying, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While prices of crude at that level are above cash costs of production, they will deter a rebound in shale output from occurring too early, the bank’s New York-based analysts including Brian Singer said in a report dated April 6. Oil at $30 to $35 a barrel should keep the behavior of U.S. companies unchanged and help lift West Texas Intermediate to $55 to $60 a barrel in 2017, according to Goldman.

Soil temperatures: an individual asked about the soil temperature in North Dakota during the winter. Don provides a link that tracks deep soil temperature on an hourly basis. In a state highly dependent on farming it makes sense this data would be tracked. What a great state.

What a racket: Massachusetts pols reluctantly look to raise solar energy net-metering caps. Story at Washington Times.

Last year, the average retail reimbursement was around 17 cents per kilowatt hour.

Global warming, from The Weather Channel:

Climate change is a major threat to human health, with extreme heat likely to kill 27,000 Americans annually by 2100, according to a report released Monday by the White House.

The report, by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, outlines numerous ways global warming could devastate public health in the U.S. this century.

Global warming will lead to heat waves so extreme that in the hottest times of the year, it will be “physiologically impossible” for people who work outdoors to do their jobs, John Holdren, a science advisor to the Obama administration, said during a news conference about the report.

We're talking a 0.2-degree increase in temperature -- assuming global warming exists; assuming the computer models are accurate (LOL); assuming .... assuming ... assuming ... My hunch is Sasha and/or Malia wrote this "report" for a science fair submission. 

A big "thank you" to the reader who sent me this. The reader noted that it was strange that the White House still talks about "global warming." We are well past "global warming" -- first, it was global warming, then climate change, but now it's extreme weather.

All I can say is that we're on the highway to the danger zone:

Highway to the Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins
I was mentioning to my wife last night: when I was in high school in Williston, back in the 60s -- the best era for music -- I recall all those stories of heat waves in Chicago and NYC resulting in an untold number of deaths; and, photographs of all those fire hydrants opened for inner city youth -- who grew up to be rappers -- playing in the water. We don't see those photographs or read those stories any more. Do we?

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs: 

	4/7/2016	04/07/2015	04/07/2014	04/07/2013	04/07/2012
Active Rigs	30	93	194	187	208

RBN Energy: CBR -- Bakken operators are losing $6/bbl shipping by rail to Louisiana. This is Part 8 in RBN Energy's series updating the sorry state of the CBR business in North America in 2016 compared to its heyday a few years back.

According to our friends at Genscape at the end of March (week ending April 1, 2016) Bakken shippers could sell their crude at the railhead in North Dakota for $32.05/Bbl. Prices for Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) crude at the Gulf Coast were about $5.40/Bbl higher than at the railhead but the rail freight to the Gulf was a few cents less than $12/Bbl.

That means a Bakken producer would lose nearly $6.50/Bbl by shipping crude by rail to St. James, LA, versus selling in North Dakota. Yet despite Crude-by-Rail (CBR) economics being so underwater - the volumes delivered to two St. James terminals averaged 66 Mb/d in 2016 through March.  Today we continue our series on the fate of CBR with a look at inbound Gulf Coast CBR shipments.

Reminder: second refinery in southwestern North Dakota in the works.