An Old Hess Well Shows Small Jump In Production; Exceeds 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 5, 2022

The well, #18104, before is the only one in this drilling unit. But interestingly, there is a pad with six locations permitted in that drilling unit:

• 36086,
• 36085,
• 36084,
• 36083,
• 36082,
• 36081,

Besides recently reaching 500K bbls crude oil cumulative, $18104, drilled more than a decade ago shows some improvement in production. Neither the well file nor the NDIC map explained the jump in production.

The well:

• 18104, 1,113, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-1, Blue Buttes, t11/09; cum 530K 12/21; full production here;
  

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2021	29	6942	7152	1310	8490	8490	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	20	3688	3054	1237	4449	4449	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	9	1007	912	148	942	942	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	3	86	225	32	138	138	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	2425	2470	389	3762	3762	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	29	2308	2373	381	3240	3240	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	2795	2743	439	3836	3836	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	2912	3034	480	3581	3581	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	23	1802	1909	219	2296	2296	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	29	2681	2577	575	3950	3950	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2893	2863	458	4786	4786	0

Focus On Fracking -- February 6, 2022

This week's Sunday edition has posted. Link to post.

The lede:

Oil prices are at a new seven-year high, oil supplies are at a new ten-year low; SPR is at a new nineteen-year low; total oil & products supplies at a seven-and-a-half year low.

Omicron's hit to demand leads to the largest five-week increase in gasoline inventories in thirty-two years.

Largest five-week increase in gasoline inventories, gasoline demand at recent record lows, and yet gasoline prices are surging. 

Notes From All Over -- February 6, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The market: this is not ready for prime time -- overheard at Hopdaddy's, my favorite watering hole. Much of this is paraphrased taken from multiple conversations. 

Preface: I have not checked the market since the Meta (FB) debacle last week and have not watched CNBC since Wednesday. I've checked in on a few stocks but have no idea how the general market did on Thursday or Friday except what I overheard. Much of what I overheard may be entirely wrong. Anyway, having said that, here are the takeaways from what I overheard, some are mine, some are others, but heed the disclaimer.

Anticipation: I can hardly wait to see what the market does this week. There are several overriding themes:

• the Fed: every analyst has baked in their own numbers based on what they think the Fed will do; the consensus is that the Fed action for the next several months will be bad news for investors. I disagree. A lot depends on the time line that various folks use and the "narrative.
  

• Ukraine: this is the biggie. Anyone familiar with Sun Tzu knows this is the only think that bears watching, but having said that no one has any idea of the time frame in which the fireworks begin. Before after, or during the Olympics is my hunch.

• oil: two really, really widely divergent views. One group says we're going to see $90 by March (which, by the way, we're already there) and $100 by the end of summer; another group says there will be a severe pullback. It's hard to believe but Art Berman actually tweeted to expect a severe pullback. No time frame provided. So, at some point, he's bound to be correct. 

• oil bears: those who look for a severe pullback often mention two things -- a) Saudi Arabia has huge spare capacity; and, b) it's just a matter of time before sanctions on Iran are lifted and that country will add an additional 1.3 million bopd on the global market
• oil bulls: for them there is no spare capacity. The data seems to point in this direction based on data points posted on the blog in the past few days, and, regardless Iran adding 1.3 million bopd isn't going to happen any time soon. 

• Meta: way, way, way oversold. Maybe I'll come back to this later. But this is one reason I can't wait for the market to open tomorrow. I am cocked and loaded to buy FB at this level. Again, see the disclaimer and note that these are not necessarily my thoughts. These were comments from others at my favorite watering hole. I was taking notes as fast as I could.

• semiconductors: like oil, there are two wildly divergent views. 
• semiconductor bears: talking heads on CNBC are bearish on semiconductors, suggesting at some point there will be an oversupply of semiconductors. 
• semiconductor bulls: on Friday night after the news cycle closed for the day, Ford announced that it was shutting down completely or partially eight factories because of chip shortages. That speaks volumes. Then, tonight, out of nowhere, I see that President Biden is being quoted that there is no quick fix for the semiconductor shortage. I have no idea when he said it, but it's a headline story so I assume it was said recently. 
• On a scale of 1 (bear) to 10 (bullish) with regard to semiconductors, one could say I'm comfortably at 9.9 (very bullish) and have been accumulating shares in semiconductors companies for the past several weeks. With the Ford announcement, my bullishness went to 9.99 and then with the Biden story my bullishness went to 9.999. If If I knew more about semiconductors I might be able to provide some rationale to my bullishness. My horizon is measured in years.
  

• Ford's earnings: holy mackerel. I haven't checked Ford since last week. Now I am triply excited about tomorrow. I just checked. Ford dropped almost 10% on Friday and closed at $17.96. Are you kidding me? I was going to write about Ford earlier this weekend which would have supported a $17.96 thesis but I never got around to it. And, of course, no one would have taken me seriously anyway. 

I'm going to quit here. That was about as much as was covered in our little group this evening. Again, this is not ready-for-prime-time. Simply some open-ended thoughts about some things on my mind.

Finally, We're Off To A Good Start -- February 6, 2022

Link here. 

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- Februray 6, 2022

The wells:

• 34067, conf, Enerplus, Cobweb 149-92-32D-29H, Heart Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	11466	5873
11-2021	13414	8130
10-2021	16181	10083
9-2021	16621	9438
8-2021	20198	8237

• 34065, conf, Enerplus, Tarantula 149-92-32C-29H, Heart Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	20797	10666
11-2021	25276	15330
10-2021	33254	20753
9-2021	24957	14172
8-2021	27257	11116

• 36581, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1, Banks,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	14112	40038
11-2021	16161	37704
10-2021	18952	38012
9-2021	17939	33908
8-2021	460	0

• 36580, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	28679	75249
11-2021	28987	67538
10-2021	34229	70634
9-2021	27859	54724
8-2021	1152	0

• 38061, conf, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2833H-3, Dollar Joe,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	12639	38727
11-2021	16915	45809
10-2021	14292	60844
9-2021	25005	73833
8-2021	38833	43487

• 38060, conf, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2833H-2, Dollar Joe,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	14337	50151
11-2021	19711	55633
10-2021	25231	56294
9-2021	26217	75290
8-2021	39179	47919

• 36582, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 11-11H, Banks,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	16697	70024
11-2021	23976	73347
10-2021	29915	67859
9-2021	25592	51767
8-2021	239	0

• 36618, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 2TFH, Croff,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	23380	18367

• 38444, conf, Eagle Operating, Ober 20-5, Great Northern, no production reported.
• 38421, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, no production reported;
• 38420, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production reported; 
• 37331, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-5, Manitou,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	17801	18459
11-2021	14754	18450
10-2021	6416	8975
9-2021	24414	35412
8-2021	31169	62746

• 36619, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH, Croff, no production reported;
• 35130, conf, Enerplus, Blackwidow 149-92-32D-29H, Heart Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	6884	3541
11-2021	6896	4189
10-2021	3548	2217
9-2021	2516	1429
8-2021	1749	713

• 38422, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 4-10-03-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production reported;
• 37448, conf, Koda Resources Operating, Porter 2614-2BH, Bar Butte,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2021	15054	6869
11-2021	13246	6427
10-2021	12762	737
9-2021	11486	0

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 6, 2022

Monday, February 14, 2022: 29 for the month, 84 for the quarter, 84 for the year
34067, conf, Enerplus, Cobweb 149-92-32D-29H,
34065, conf, Enerplus, Tarantula 149-92-32C-29H,

Sunday, February 13, 2022: 27 for the month, 82 for the quarter, 82 for the year
36581, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1,

Saturday, February 12, 2022: 26 for the month, 81 for the quarter, 81 for the year
36580, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL,

Friday, February 11, 2022: 25 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 80 for the year
38061, conf, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2833H-3,

Thursday, February 10, 2022: 24 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 79 for the year
38060, conf, Hess, GO-Braaten-156-97-2833H-2
36582, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 11-11H,

Wednesday, February 9, 2022: 22 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 77 for the year
None.

Tuesday, February 8, 2022: 22 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 77 for the year
None.

Monday, February 7, 2022: 22 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 77 for the year
36618, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 2TFH,

Sunday, February 6, 2022: 21 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 76 for the year
38444, conf, Eagle Operating, Ober 20-5,
38421, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 3-10-03-158N-
38420, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 2-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
37331, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155=94-0310H-5,
36619, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 3MBH,
35130, conf, Enerplus, Blackwidow 149-92-32D-29H,

Saturday, February 5, 2022: 15 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 70 for the year
38422, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 4-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
37448, conf, Koda Resources Operating, Porter 2614-2BH,

Notes From All Over -- February 6, 2022

ISO NE, Sunday brunch:

• demand, a paltry 14,640 MW
• earlier this a.m., pricing in the 8th decile, the highest decile it will ever get;
• now, back down to 7th decile, back down to only $150 / MWh which is a bargain compared to the $280 spike earlier this a.m.
• and, again, it's wind that is the problem:
• renewables contributing 7% earlier this morning, now 8%
• of the renewable sources, wind is at the bottom (below refuse, wood, solar) at 11%
• wind contributing 0.7% of supply
• but solar, 20% of renewables? Wow. I would never guess that solar beats wind in Boston.

Meta: see this post.

The most obvious question was not asked / not addressed by The New York Times.

There are actually two questions that were not asked / not addressed by The New Times. 

First, how did analysts miss this? 

Why was the market so spooked when the numbers came out? Why was this a surprise? In the conference call, Meta even said that such things as Apple's "cost" was in-line with their (Meta's) expectations. Everyone knew about the lockdowns. Everyone knew about inflation. Everyone knew about Facebook's pivot to spending large sums of money on the metaverse so how was this a surprise?

But this is the obvious question that struck me initially: why now? Why this quarter? Why 4Q21? 

Why not last quarter or the quarter before? Why not next quarter or 2Q22? Why this quarter? The only unknown -- and trust me on this -- was the subscriber growth, or, in this case, the lack of subscriber growth. But that doesn't happen overnight, does it? What was the trend? Why did folks not see this coming? Why was it this quarter? Why not the previous quarter or the next quarter? 

Now that the question has been asked, everyone will opine, but to the best of my knowledge, this is the first time the question has been asked. And if one can answer it (correctly), then Meta's 4Q21 earnings / earnings call should not have been a surprise.

Meta:

Was Meta way oversold? Without a doubt, yes. We'll come back to this later. 

Canada: when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. Link here. 

Pentagon: Kyiv (Kiev, Ukraine) could fall in 72 hours if Russia invades.

• two things on which we all agree:
• Kyiv will fall if Russia invades; and,
• it will only take 72 hours.
• Comments:
• if Kyiv falls in 72 hours, there would be minimal casualties on both sides;
• essentially it would be a 3-day drive from the border to Kyiv; and,
• it would be over.
• But now, with the US (and others) pouring defensive arms into Ukraine, the conflict will likely last two months;
• the end result:
• Kyiv will fall if Russia invades; and,
• it will take two months.
• if the conflict last two months, there will be horrendous casualties on both sides.
• two questions:
• why does the Pentagon care how long the conflict will last if the outcome is the same?
• why would the Pentagon want a longer conflict if the outcome is going to be the same? Does the Pentagon / US want to see a lot of casualties?
  
• does the Pentagon think Ukraine will "hold" out like the Taliban did in Afghanistan in the 1970s?

Apple: product placement is what it's all about:

10:1 odds he's on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. Or watching Baghdad Bob reruns.

By the way, that's Hunter's computer should anyone ask.

Inshallah -- February 6, 2022

Oil at $90 (or more). 

Link here.

Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves decreased to 1,707,639 SAR million in December, 2021, from 1,741,516 SAR million in November, 2021. 

Years ago we suggested Saudi Arabia needed $100-oil to meet its budget. No one talks about that any more.

But it appears at $90+ oil Saudi is unable to grow its foreign exchange assets account. Imports must be costing more. Imports like: food, cars, clothes, computers, cellphones, food, jewelry, bottled water, did we mention food?

Maybe that explains why Saudi Aramco is talking about another $50 billion stake sale via a new fresh share listing. 

Charts released overnight, February 5 - 6, 2022:

From a post late last week:

Saudi Arabia: inshallah. Read the social media responses from Saudi Arabia in the thread the link. Baghdad Bob is reporting.

Thought Of The Day -- February 6, 2022

Quick: name the current German chancellor. No, it's not Angela Merkel. She's the "former."

I remember years ago receiving a lot of e-mail from readers linking stories to German energy sites and lots of blogs on Germany, and waking up this morning, I realized I hadn't blogged about Germany in a long, long time.

That means one thing: Germany has become irrelevant to America. 

Same with North Korea. Remember when we seemed to be talking about North Korea almost daily; haven't mentioned them (until now) in years.

The Mideast hardly seems relevant -- the last OPEC meeting lasted sixteen minutes and the outcome was as expected.

What is relevant for me?

• the US Fed
• Russia
• China
• oil
• Joe Biden, but in a different sort of way. Relevant irrelevancy?

And that's about it.