Locator: 44592TARIFFS.
Link here. I know what assumptions do to folks who make assumptions, but tonight, since I'm in a good mood, I'll make assumptions. I assume a few / some / many / most folks know who Marc Andreessen is. Well, on second thought, maybe I shouldn't make that assumption.
If you don't know, wiki will help.
Locator: 44590INVESTING.
Wow, wow, wow, I'm in a great mood.
For an investor, 2025 is going to be an incredible year.
The key thing to remember: the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") is not the economy.
The American economy is going to do very, very well particularly when compared to the rest of the world.
So, let's leave it at. The American economy is going to do very, very well.
But that doesn't mean the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") is going to do well. It's hard for me to believe that after two years of back-to-back gains of 20% in the market (actually almost 25%) will mean a third year of the same. But nearly 100% of analysts expect the stock market (aka, "Wall Street") to end the year higher than when it started. It's hard for me to be a contrarian, but after two years of back-to-back gains of 20% in the market (actually almost 25%)....
If that ends up being true, that the market will end up higher by the end of the year compared to the beginning, investors will be very, very happy and very, very well rewarded.
On the other hand, it the market has a significant reversal, it offers an opportunity for investors to invest in the market at lower prices. Warren Buffet appears to be betting on the latter.
But that doesn't mean the economy is / will be doing poorly. The US economy in 2025 is going to do incredibly well. We'll talk about that later, but maybe not this week. If the US economy in 2025 does incredibly well, and the market disappoints the average investor, not to worry. The incredible US economy will continue into 2026 (tailwinds) and the market will eventually catch up. Investors who continue to invest in stocks this year (2025) will be rewarded, sooner or later.
If the stock market reflects the economy then investors should see a market that ends higher at the end of the year than when it started.
If the stock market falls, it simply offers investors an opportunity to invest in some great American companies. And wait for things to turn around in 2026.
One caveat: if the market does poorly this year compared to the economy, then the market becomes a stock pickers' market. Again, I think that is where Buffett excels.
So, bottom line for me this year:
That leaves nine other sectors, sectors about which I know very, very little.
So, except for
I can't be more specific than that, because it doesn't matter. Everyone has their own ideas on how to invest. I'm about the last person anyone would want to follow.
But it's going to be a great year for investors.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
One of the blog posts I like best had to do with semiconductor chips.
That was perhaps the best update on chips on any blog that requires no subscription and no password. LOL.
Read that post first, and then read the following:
TSMC -- largest chip maker in the world -- set to "double down" and vastly increase US semiconductor chip investment in Arizona. Link here.
The company had already said it was going to invest $10 billion to $12 billion in Arizona. Now, the company is mulling a more advanced 3 nanometer plant that could cost between $23 billion and $25 billion, sources said. The changes would come over the next 10 to 15 years, as the company builds out its Phoenix campus, the report notes.
The move would put TSMC in direct competition with Intel and Samsung for subsidies from the U.S. government. President Joe Biden has proposed $50 billion in funding for domestic chip manufacturing - a proposal the Senate could act on as soon as this week. Intel has also committed to two new fabs in Arizona and Samsung is planning a $17 billion factory in Austin, Texas.
Note: