An Enerplus Well In Mandaree Oil Field Will Soon Hit 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 31, 2021

This page will not be updated. This well is tracked here.

This well will hit 500K bbls crude oil cumulative within the next couple of months. This well, still flowing, no pump:

• 29974, 380, Enerplus, Thread 149-93-04D-03H, Mandaree, F, t2/16; cum 491K 11/20; strong production profile continues into 2019, producing 7,500 bbls/month as recently as 12/18; recent production; this well is five years old:
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	12-2020	31	3499	3649	1767	7347	5256	523
  BAKKEN	11-2020	29	3592	3507	1918	7543	5125	951
  BAKKEN	10-2020	30	3626	3684	2557	7436	5853	109
  BAKKEN	9-2020	30	4455	4421	2941	10014	8203	134
  BAKKEN	8-2020	28	4303	4383	3215	8202	6209	129
  BAKKEN	7-2020	31	3542	3450	2329	6915	4945	106
  BAKKEN	6-2020	29	3585	3761	2291	6616	4900	108
  BAKKEN	5-2020	30	3870	3995	1905	6998	5262	116
  BAKKEN	4-2020	25	4647	4605	1116	7318	5451	139

The MRO Wells On The The P-R-S-4W Pad Have Been Returned To Production -- January 31, 2021

This page will not be updated; these wells are tracked here. 

The new wells have been completed; work on the pad has been completed; and, now the earlier wells taken off line while newer wells were fracked are back on line. The wells back on line:

The wells:

• 21630, 1,378, MRO, Waltom USA 43-8TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 424K 1/20; off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line 12/20;
  
• 21631, 1,463, MRO, Waljen USA 43-8H, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 467K 1/20; off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line 12/20;

An XTO Bobcat Federal Well In Bear Creek, In Less Than Eighteen Months, Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil --January 31, 2021

This page won't be updated. These wells are tracked here. 

In eighteen months of production, this well has produced more than 525K bbls of crude oil cumulative.

The well:

• 34358, 30 (no typo), XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35EXH, Bear Creek, 60 stages, 12.0 million lbs, t5/19; cum 512K 11/20; for early production: link here; full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	15530	15496	15028	55931	44925	10990
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	16782	16922	15573	55514	40185	15321
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	18721	18505	16907	27788	21783	5986
BAKKEN	9-2020	19	7502	7791	7701	9064	6758	2284
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	19326	19036	17287	23884	18548	5310
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	20913	20998	18635	29733	26710	2987
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	21590	21845	18327	46208	44044	2127
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	29073	28854	23145	58360	54778	3552
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	28726	28967	23563	48334	45293	3033
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	28497	28149	22692	39376	38981	295
BAKKEN	2-2020	15	12240	12462	11997	16365	12400	3920
BAKKEN	1-2020	29	25617	25547	21390	35208	24156	10965
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	33870	33738	29159	45929	32965	12863
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	34869	35105	29572	39322	33176	6048
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	34492	34576	34518	38273	38172	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	38132	38221	34052	51273	44198	6977
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	48796	49057	56932	63245	57779	5466
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	62002	61806	52245	80462	2054	78313
BAKKEN	6-2019	13	14974	14228	18060	16881	8076	8769
BAKKEN	5-2019	17	395	0	9563	944	0	944

Brrrr! It's Cold In New York City -- AOC's Constituents Paying "$135 For Electricity" -- Sunday Night -- January 31, 2021

Link here. 

I don't often see Long Island colored light brown in this context:

*****************************************
The Library Page

On my table next to me:

• Life Ascending: The Ten Great Inventions Of Evolution, Nick Lane, c. 2010;
• Dorothy Parker: Complete Broadway, 1918 - 1923, edited by Kevin C. Fitzpatrick, c. 2014

From the second,

Mrs Parker stood out asthe only female critic covering Broadway. She broke ground in a male-dominated profession when women in America could not vote, buy real estate on their own, or get a passport using their maiden name. The Nineteenth Amendment to the US Constitution, granting voting rights wasn't ratified until the summer of 1920 (common knowledge, no doubt) and other women's equality issues would take years to pass. 

Mrs Parker told her audience about black revues in Harlem as well as Greenwich Village experimental plays. She let the lily-white dailies cover the standard theater fare as she sought out new plays, playwrights, and actors. In early 1923, Mrs Parker attended a groundbreaking theatre debut, R.U.R. The Capek brothers, Josef and Karel, had coined the term "robot" for Rossum's Universal Robots.

Dorothy nee Rothschild never completed high school. Less than five years before she became NYC's only female theater critic and wrote for Vanity Fair, she left school to take care of her ailing father with slim prospects for her future. Her mother passed away before Dorothy turned five years old (1898).

Though Jewish, she attended a Roman Catholic elementary school, Blessed Sacrament, on West Seventy-ninth Street. Her education lasted until she was fourteen years old.

Her father died in December 1913, leaving Dorothy a little money. Dorothy worked odd jobs and lived with her older sister until she got the big break that changed her life. 

Vanity Fair was launched in 1914 by Condé Nast, the man behind the success of Vogue. The editors stumbled across one of Dorothy's poems, and published it. 

Dorothy would have been twenty-one years of age. On the back of that one poem being published, Dorothy Parker "marched down to the publishing offices on West Forty-fourth Street and asked for a job. She got it. As an editorial assistant.

And the rest is history. But that, too, is common knowledge.

Canola -- January 31, 2021

North Dakota leads the nation, by far, in canola production. I assume this is common knowledge.

Remember this post seven years ago, almost to the day, January 25, 2014? CBR -- canola by rail. 

At the time: search the blog for "canola."

North Dakota plants 2/3rds of the nation's canola -- is now at 83% -- see below;
North Dakota company building a canola plant in Oklahoma.
Despite moisture problems, North Dakota likely to remain #1 in canola -- back in 2011.

Today, from Reuters: exports empty Canada's canola bins, driving prices to near records. 

Canada, the world’s biggest canola grower, is running short of the oilseed six months before the next harvest, with strong export demand driving prices to nearly 13-year highs last week.

Supplies of major commodity crops are dwindling worldwide as buyers hoard food supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic. China is loading up on grains and oilseeds that it can feed to animals, raising food inflation and causing some nations to restrict exports of their crops.

Canola, known for its bright yellow flowers, is crushed mainly for oil to make French fries, mayonnaise and salad dressings. Its meal is also fed to livestock like pigs.The roots of Canada’s canola shortage trace back to the autumn, when farmers reaped their smallest harvest in five years. Strong export demand for canola seed and oil then drove a late-summer rally that prompted farmers to sell more crop earlier than usual.ICE canola futures retreated late in the week to less than C$700 per tonne, remaining close to levels unseen since the record 2008 commodity boom.

Production by country:

• Canada: 15.5 million metric tons
• China: 14.7 million metric tons (net importer)
• India: 7.8 million metric tons (net importer)
• Germany: 6.25 million metric tons
• France: 5.5 million metric tons
• US: about 4 million metric tons

In the US, by state: 

Back in 2018, I found that story so compelling, I posted the following:

From Absolutely Small: How Quantum Theory Explains Our Everyday World, Michael D. Fayer, Ph. D., c. 2010.

Some data points:

• fatty acids:
• myristic acid, a 14-carbon saturated fat is believed to increase cholesterol significantly in a deleterious manner
• palmitic acid, a 16-carbon saturated fat, is thought to increase cholesterol to some extent
• stearic acid, an 18-carbon saturated fat, with little effect on cholesterol levels
• linolenic acid, an 18-carbon polyunsaturated fat, and other polyunsaturated fats decrease cholesterol
• oleic acid, a monounsaturated fat, and like many monounsaturated fats, with little effect on cholesterol
• among common oils, going from "bad" to "better" to "best" (in this context)
• butter fat and coconut oil: large amounts of myristic acid and palmitic acid; very little linolenic acid
• olive oil: no myristic acid, significant amount of palmitic acid and some linolenic acid
• canola oil; no myristic acid and almost no palmitic acid; a substantial amount of linolenic acid; ND #1;
  
• grape seed oil: no myristic acid; small amounts of palmitic acid, bur very large amounts of linolenic acid
• safflower oil: same as grape seed oil -- when not processed for high-temperature cooking
• sunflower oil: same as grape seed oil -- when not processed for high-temperature cooking; ND #1 (link here);
  
• chemically-modified fats: for various reasons, many polyunsaturated fats (good) are chemically processed to saturated fats (bad)
• hydrogenation: chemically converting polyunsaturated fats (good) to saturated fats (bad)
• because polyunsaturated fats can be beneficial, sunflower oil and safflower oil are seen as advantageous
• however, sunflower oil and safflower oil are often hydrogenated (bad)
• how can you tell if the sunflower oil product or the safflower oil product has been hydrogenated? Read the label and look at the ratio of saturated / polyunsaturated
• sunflower oil / safflower oil: high ratio of saturated / polyunsaturated, then the oil has been hydrogenated (bad)
• if not hydrogenated (good), sunflower oil / safflower oil will have far greater amounts of polyunsaturated than saturated fats

Having said all that, I practically grew up on slightly salted  / salted sunflower seeds while growing up in North Dakota. 

Back to safflower and sunflower oils: many brands have been partially hydrogenated so they are more usable for high-temperature cooking.

Polyunsaturated (but not saturated) oils more prone to reacting with oxygen and becoming rancid. To extend shelf life, they should be refrigerated.

If polyunsaturated fats are not refrigerated, they should be kept in a cool, dark place; some such oils come in dark bottles to improve shelf life in grocery stores.

Saturated fatty oils will keep for a long time without refrigeration.

Saturated fatty oils are also better for high-temperature cooking, and thus the reason for (partially) hydrogenating safflower and sunflower oil (bad).

We will get to trans-oils (bad) later. If I remember. It is my understanding that McDonald's does not use trans-oils. 

Canola oil is the first oil -- among the seven fatty acids in the frying oil -- usually mentioned when asked what oil McDonald's uses for frying French fries.

***************************************************
My Fair Lady

Wow, the "lov-ely" scene brings forth a lot of tears. What a great story; what a great movie. 

TCM.

*********************
Hard To Resist

Is Silver Next? -- January 13, 2021

Link here. 

Over at social media sites, there is talk that silver traders are the next ones to be squeezed:

Note: the frenzy include silver coins. We've talked about this before. Whoo-hoo. Link here.

The numbers to watch:

• tonight and pre-market tomorrow morning: $30
• before the end of the week: $35

***********************************
PGA

I was quite disappointed with a commentator who I have really respected over the years. Talk about making a mountain out of a molehill. The initial rules official supported the golfer. Later, the head of the rules committee supported the golfer. The CBS announcer has egg all over his face. The commentator, a retired PGA golf champion, won a measly six championships over his entire career. Perhaps not even at the mid-point of his career, the golfer in question has nine major PGA wins under his belt.

The sports commentator ended his commentary yesterday suggesting that if the winner wins by one stroke, this golf tournament would forever be blemished. In fact, the winner won by five strokes over five others. 

Later, February 4, 2021: commentators give golfer a pass despite huge homophobic slur during recent tournament. So, the commentators manufacture a non-story about one golfer, and give another golfer a pass despite his language. His language resulted in some of his sponsors quickly dropping him, including Ralph Lauren. Double standard, much?

**********************************
From The Aviator's Corner

Hess Will Report Another Huge Labar Well Tomorrow -- January 31, 2021

The Hess EN-Labar wells are tracked here. 

This Labar well is coming off the confidential list tomorrow, February 1, 2012:

• 37067, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-10, Three Forks, 33-061-04619, fracked 5/27/20 - 6/5/20,  6.6 million gallons of water, 84.1% water by mass;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	22179	33147
10-2020	25030	37530
9-2020	28146	42572
8-2020	41331	35496

**************************************
Chinese Flu Hasn't Stopped Texas High School Sports

Local high school swim and dive teams, update:

Our middle granddaughter plays soccer for this high school; they are ranked 1st or second in their district. Our oldest granddaughter plays water for polo for a club team and not the high school team. And, of course, six-year-old Sophia is a budding competitive rock climber. She scaled a 5.10 wall yesterday at 54 seconds beating her previous time of 1:03. I cannot recall if she attempted a 5.11 wall.

Link here:

It appears Sophia stopped for tea about halfway up.

Another Red Badge Of Courage -- Surviving Covid-19 And Moving On -- January 31, 2021

Apparently there's a new wrinkle among commercial pilots and Covid-19 but that's a story for another day.

A graphic only: 

Sempra Update -- SeekingAlpha-- January 31, 2021

I honestly don't know why investors still pay attention to analysts after all these years. P/Es, earnings, growth, guidance, no longer matter, it seems. It's all about FOMO and MOJO. 

Exhibit A: GME.

Exhibit B: TSLA.

But it is what it is.

Like Apple, I've always been fascinated with Sempra. I got into one very, very early. I got into the other very, very late. 

I am fascinated by Apple: I think it represents everything going on in America right now (previously posted).

I was never fascinated by Sempra. It was simply a San Diego utility. In fact, didn't it began as San Diego Gas and Electric? If so, it was the second stock I ever bought. The first was Burlington Northern. Both, back in 1985 or thereabouts. Have accumulated shares in both ever since. Of course, with BNI, it's now through Berkshire Hathaway. 

I was never fascinated by Sempra. Until 2018 or thereabouts. With stories and headlines like the following I felt very, very exposed. 

I was curious how Sempra would thread this needle, or how it would dodge a Black Swan event. 

The Oncor acquisition provided great relief. Sempra has telegraphed shareholders and California regulators it has options. 

That acquisition was brilliant. 

Directly or indirectly it led to another brilliant move: Costa Azul. 

I was thrilled to see this at SeekingAlpha today: Sempra: the utility that makes growth look easy. Archived.

Summary:

• Sempra has been growing dividends and earnings at double-digit rates in the last few years.
• Recently announced transaction will clarify value on its unregulated infrastructure business, which has achieved important milestones but remains unrecognized.
• Its 2017 diversification into Texas Oncor is turning out well, now guiding to double the size of the acquired rate base as soon as 2022.

Excerpts:

Good:

Sempra has sold non-core midstream facilities, its US wind and solar generation portfolio and its South American electric utilities. Last month the company announced a set of transactions that will simplify its structure into essentially two parts: a pure-play regulated US utility and a “new” infrastructure platform (of which it intends to sell a minority stake). This platform will integrate its IEnova business and its LNG business.

Extremely bad:

All California utilities, including SDG&E that run electric T&D lines, are exposed to potentially uncapped liabilities from fire. In California, the courts have upheld a doctrine of inverse condemnation to include investor-owned utilities (IOUs). Inverse condemnation gives property owners the ability to claim damages to governments or municipalities when property is lost. In California this condition is extended to include investor owner utilities, when their equipment is proven to be the cause of the fires. This stands, even if no fault can be placed on the utility (i.e. no negligence is proven).

The legislative rationale behind this revolves around the fact that utilities serve a public good, and therefore damages caused by their activity should be spread out among the population being served. This makes sense and happens automatically with municipalities, for example. However, IOUs are privately funded, and their rates need to be approved by the regulatory body CPUC.

This means utilities are exposed (as PG&E demonstrated recently) to unrecoverable losses when the regulator refuses to pass along costs. In practice, the costs and claims, in an event as large as the fires of 2017 would be difficult to spread among its rate base even if allowed.

For these reasons, the risk has become practically uninsurable.

Weber Grilling -- Thinking Of Those Digging Out Of The Snow In Chicago, New York -- January 31, 2021

Short-sleeve weather in north Texas this weekend. 

There is only one "negative" associated with living in our apartment. That one negative: we are not allowed to grill on the patio. I have no gate leading from the railed patio so it is literally impossible to have a Weber. I could store a Weber on the patio but I could never get it off the patio without a lot of work. 

If I had to list my top five interests or hobbies, grilling on a Weber would make the top-five list. The only question is how high on that list would it appear. Bicycling is, of course, #1 -- yes, ranking higher than blogging on the Bakken, #2. 

So, is grilling on the Weber, #3, #4, or #5? 

Last week  it might have been #5 but then a reader sent me this photo last night and this caption: "It never gets old."

That raised grilling on the Weber to #4 on my list of things I enjoy most. The reader did this, by the way, as a request from his mother, about my age, and obviously with a great taste for life.

But today, the reader raised the ante, again, with one photo and a one-word caption: "Perfect."

Don't you just love the way the ribs are displayed? I so dislike the neatly ordered way "professional" chefs line up their ribs in the typical American football offensive line-up. 

Grilling on the Weber, at the moment, has moved to the top of my top-5 list. 

I am seriously considering moving when the current lease is up. 

After seeing the first photo last night, I checked out several YouTube videos of grilling a rack of lamb. There were several excellent videos. Hands down, the worst video for learning how to grill a rack of lamb was that by super-chef Gordon Ramsay. I was aghast! Cooking a rack of lamb in an indoor oven. LOL.  

The one by Helen Rennie was the best ... until she said she grilled on gas. Ouch. 

Takeaways:

• removing excess fat is up to the individual; not all would agree with Helen Rennie;
• no mint. Ever. Rosemary-thyme-Dijon mustard-salt-pepper-olive oil-(garlic)
  
• aluminum foil on the ends of the ribs? A bit of affectation: hey, grilling on the Weber should stay simple; no aluminum foil;
  
• a thermometer is a must: lamb is just too expensive to miss on this one; goes against the "simplicity" rule but in this case some rules need to be broken
• if you dare go without a thermometer: 4.5 minutes, with one turn, over direct heat;
  
• 125°F is when the lamb comes off direct heat; how you finish is up to you;
• min: 120°F
• max: 130°F

The Next Big Thing -- Quick: 2020 Design Of The Year? January 31, 2021

Before we get to the subject at hand, a little "word play."

A couple of new EVs are capturing the interests of myriad automobile buffs. Tesla is so yesterday. The new kids on the block: the new Ford Mustang Mach-E and the new Porsche Taycan.

Quick: using one word, one word only, what does "Taycan" mean? 

Now, back to the subject at hand.

One of my favorite pages on the blog is "the next big thing," linked at the sidebar at the right.

I apologize. It is very difficult to track "the next big think" on the blog. It's become so disjointed. Be that as it may, we will press on.

The very, very first post on "the next big thing" was dated March 21, 2013. My very first "the next big thing" was Netflix. That was back in 2013. It may have been my defining moment with regard to prognostications. 

So, now we have another "next big thing."

Let's run through the process of how this developed.

For those watching cable television like Spectrum and watching mostly networks focused on entertainment, business, and sports, what company jumps out at you as appearing to do much more advertising that it use to?

I limit this to networks focused on entertainment, business, and sports because I don't follow any news networks. I had to add business: even though I watch no business-networks on a regular basis, I occasionally watch CNBC and the company I am thinking of heavily advertises on CNBC.

So, again, what company jumps out at you as appearing to do much more advertising that it use to?

This is like Family Feud, isn't it?

There is no wrong answer. Everyone will think of something different. 

For me, it is/was obvious.

USAA.

Second, what sector seems to have the most advertising on the networks focused on entertainment, sports, and business?

Car insurance. 

So, I was curious. 

Google: dollars spent on television advertising by industry.

Results: from statista.com, "leading TV advertisers in the US from December 3 to December 10, 2020, by weekly advertising spending."  

Wow, wow, wow. 

Was I rigtht or was I wrong? USAA #10 on the top ten list. Whoo-hoo!

Now, take a second look at that list. What industry is #1 as represented by the companies that make the top ten list? Let's see:  Geico (#1); Progressive (#3); State Farm (#8); and USAA (#10). 

Retail, #2 overall: Walmart and Target.

Auto and telecommunications, tied for #3 / #4: Verizon, T-Mobile, Toyota, Ford. 

But clearly, the #1 sector is automobile insurance. Yes, home and rental insurance can be bundled with automobile insurance but the home/rental segment of this bundle is inconsequential compared to the automobile segment.

[Another digression: name five "A" companies not on the chart above.]

With AI-enhanced algorithms there cannot possibly be anything simpler than the automobile insurance industry.

Has anyone else noticed this low-hanging fruit? 

Yup. 

Elon Musk. 

Link here. 

When competition starts to get really, really tough, look for Ford to announce that they will bundle automobile insurance with every EV they sell. In fact, my hunch if that Ford will offer casualty insurance for free to "qualifying" buyers. 

There will be some strings attached, of course, but this is, too, will be fascinating to watch. 

Financing a $100,000 car over three years would run about $3,000 / month. Link here. Casualty insurance alone (not liability) and with certain strings attached would be a trivial price for Ford to subsidize. 

Can you imagine the consumer's response to "insurance included" when one buys an EV?

Now, back to that "word play" question at the top of the blog:

A couple of new EVs are capturing the interests of myriad automobile buffs. Tesla is so yesterday. The new kids on the block: the new Ford Mustang Mach-E and the new Porsche Taycan.

Taycan translates to "mustang." 

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. 

And finally, on another note:

Oh, one more thing. Which company now has the "real" mustang? 

Finally, the five "A" companies not on the chart at the top of the page:

• Apple
• Amazon
• Alphabet (Google)
• AARP
• AAA

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week --- January 31, 2021

The wells:

• 37067, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-10, Alkali Creek

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	17128	0
11-2020	22179	33147
10-2020	25030	37530
9-2020	28146	42572
8-2020	41331	35496

• 36811, conf, Hess, IT-Jenson-158-94-0805H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	9735	0
11-2020	12228	9274
10-2020	4918	3707
9-2020	18140	12698
8-2020	15495	8816

• 37200, conf, Hess, TI-Bokn-158-94-1720H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	11280	0
11-2020	7840	7944
10-2020	13228	14614
9-2020	19329	22308
8-2020	21237	16671

• 32852, conf, BR, Remington 1A MTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 37066, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9, Alkali Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2020	19756	0
11-2020	25487	36968
10-2020	26456	41469
9-2020	30017	44685
8-2020	41384	34128

• 36243, conf, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- January 31, 2021

Monday, February 8, 2021:
37067, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-10,
36811, conf, Hess, IT-Jenson-158-94-0805H-1,

Sunday, February 7, 2021:
None.

Saturday, February 6, 2021:
None.

Friday, February 5, 2021:
None.

Thursday, February 4, 2021:
37200, conf, Hess, TI-Bokn-158-94-1720H-1,

Wednesday, February 3, 2021:
None.

Tuesday, February 2, 2021:
32852, conf, BR, Remington 1A MTFH,

Monday, February 1, 2021:
37066, conf, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9,
36243, conf, BR, Stortroen 1D MBH,

Sunday, January 31, 2021:

• None.

Saturday, January 30, 2021:

• None.

Notes From All Over -- The Late Saturday Afternoon Edition -- January 30, 2012

Wow, I'm in a great mood. What a beautiful day in north Texas. Shirt-sleeve weather. They say global warming will increase the average temperature of the earth by two degrees. I've long forgotten whether that is in Celsius or Fahrenheit. My hunch: even Greta has forgotten.

Who wouldn't like to see the average temperature of the earth increase by two degrees? Don't New Yorkers fly to Florida for the winter? Don't folks from North Dakota/Montana flock to Phoenix at the same time as the New Yorkers fly south? The Brits love their vacations on the islands on the equator off the Iberian peninsula and the north African bulge. They're not going there for the clouds and cooler weather. LOL.

Whatever. 

During the spring and autumn my electric bill runs about $55/month (I only have electricity, no natural gas). Except for about $20 for water, sewer, and trash, that's the extent of my utility bills.

I get upset when my summer bill (a/c) and my winter bill (heating) go over $100/month. We are very well off, financially and the utility bill is but an asterisk or a footnote in my monthly expenses. But I do get upset when I see my summer and winter statements. If the utilities met demand in the summer and winter like they meet demand in the spring and autumn, rates would be low all year around.

So I can only imagine how these utility statements affect those much less fortunate and living where the political "goal" is to see those utility bills increase. I don't understand at all why politicians want utility bills to go up.

I think about that often, but was reminded of it today when I posted the rates in New England and New York earlier today and yesterday: here; here; here; and, here.

After following ISO NE closely, I pretty much know at what point renewable energy maxes out; at what point natural gas maxes out; at what point nuclear energy maxes out. When those max out, the expensive hydro from Canada is brought in to make up the gap and/or coal and oil are burned. 

A reader brought me up to date with the following note about NYISO:

Earlier today, noted at the above link, ~4,400 Mw of power was coming from the three nuclear sites within the state of New York. 

One of the three plants, the Indian Point plant, which provides a steady, reliable >1,000 Mw, is closing in 90 days.

While there are alternative suppliers (two new natgas plants just north of NYC providing ~1,400 Mw), the gas fuel supply will be restricted and expensive,  somewhat similar to New England's situation.

It is absolutely amazing to observe the slow motion 'train wreck' situations that these political 'leaders' are creating for their constituents.

The reader adds this should not be surprising when telegenic ditzes are placed in decision-making positions. I'm glad the reader said that. I didn't want to have to apologize to any readers for being insensitive. [Not all ditzes are telegenic. Exhibit A: Bernie Sanders.]

Along that line, speaking of apologies, I want to apologize for insulting my readers. Earlier I talked about a "fudge factor" in the supply of oil of which I was unaware. A reader said that the "fudge factor" was common knowledge, implying (at least I inferred) that I was the only one who was unaware of that fudge factor. A huge apology to all my readers for wasting their time.

Please continue to let me know whenever I post something that is "common knowledge," things that don't need to be posted. I only have so much time to blog and I certainly don't want to waste my time or my readers' time posting things everyone already knows. See first comment at this post. 

On the other hand, don't bother clicking on the link. You would just be wasting your time.  You already know/knew about the fudge factor.

LOL. I have to laugh out loud thinking about that fudge factor as being common knowledge. It reminds me of Guy Adami telling viewers last week that the market plummeted because the volatility index spiked. Hey, that was common knowledge. Everyone knew that the market plummeted because the volatility index spiked. Who didn't know that? LOL. 

I think it's time for a bike ride. Or maybe y'all already knew that.

For The Archives -- US Oil Sector Going Forward -- January 30, 2021

This was posted a few days ago; I'm finally posting it for the archives. It will help explain to Californians why gasoline prices will start trending higher this next year. 

Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices can be tracked here.

500K Missing -- January 30, 2021

I'm posting this graphic for only one reason. There is a reader that follows this much more closely than I do. Every week the reader tracks the same metrics and was one of the few that has called out the EIA on "fudging" the data it reports. The EIA is forced to use a "fudge factor" to explain away 500K bbls of lost oil every week, plus or minus a few hundred thousand. I never would have known but the reader pointed that out about a year ago. And it's true. One can easily find the small print in the weekly EIA stats in which the EIA points out they need to place a "fudge factor" in the data to make the "books balance."

So, now this, from twitter this past week:

Macht nichts but this comment by HFI Research would have meant nothing to me had I not blogged, and had a reader not pointed this out to long ago.

So Many Story Lines In One Photo, One Headline -- January 30, 2021

Meanwhile, across the Pacific:

CBR Back In The News -- Warren Buffett Watching With Anticipation, No Doubt -- January 30, 2021

For investors in the rails, Biden is an absolute godsend. Whoo-hoo. 

Over the past week or so, I noted that three rails increased their dividends: two of the rails were Canadian and one was a US rail. I'm looking forward to an announcement from UNP in February regarding its next quarterly dividend. Six quarters without a dividend increase while others are increasing their dividends must be putting some pressure on UNP. We'll see.

From a reader, this link from S&P Global Platts: Canadian rails see CBR increasing on pipeline cancellations, uncertainty.

Takeaways:

• Biden XL cancellation increases reliance on CBR
• Canadian heavy crude proving to have resilient USGC demand
• CP Railway finishing construction to ship more from Hardisty

Wow, I haven't used the CBR or the CBR_Canada tags in a long, long time. I can hardly wait to use the CBR_Minnesota tag again. 

The great news: BNSF has had several years to enhance CBR infrastructure. My hunch: huge job opportunity in western North Dakota as moth-balled terminals are brought back on line. 

This will help with CO2 emissions. LOL.

Another Bakken Well Disproving Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory -- January 30, 2021

17046: after being off line for more than year, back on line.

The well:

• 17046, 306, Irene Kovaloff 31-18H, Murphy Creek, t8/08; cum 155K 11/20;

From the file report:

• at the time, this was MRO's seventh middle Bakken project in the Murphy Creek field;
• spud June 11, 2008; kick-off point reached June 21, 2008;
  
• the curve took 55.5 hours to build (in 2021, operators generally build a curve in 12 - 18 hours;
• required a sidetrack
• target zone 11' thick
• the curve was landed three feet above the target zone approx 10 feet into the middle Bakken;
• the middle Bakken estimated to 28' to 35' thick at this site;
• frack: open hole frack with681,360 pounds 40/70 sand;
  

 Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	1457	1147	419	1042	431	344
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	112	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	1	9	0	55	6	0	5
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	521	601	107	397	0	198
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	629	622	124	465	0	241
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	686	637	125	533	175	131
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	668	795	131	528	291	16

Update On A Nice Petro-Hunt Well In The Charlson Oil Field -- January 30, 2021

The well:

• 17050, 391, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Mineral Trust 6B-2-1H, Charlson, t3/09; cum 184K 7/19; cum 213K 11/20; original frack back in 2009, 7 stages; less than 750K lbs of sand; a Three Forks well; a 50' flare if you can imagine that! Total horizontal section was 5,291' with 5,291' (100%) in the pay zone.
  

Update: back in late 2019, the operator noted a problem with this well; planned to re-enter/seek to repair. 

Graphics at this link.

Some observations:

• this well is a single section well; spaced at 640 acres
• it is a very, very old well by Bakken standards, drilled back in early 2009 -- over ten years ago
• it is in a very, very good field, amenable to nice jumps in production with neighboring fracks
• the Charlson may just be the best field in the Bakken
• so, why was this well taken off line? Let's look at the map

See this note;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	4017	3837	2060	5675	4819	647
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	4553	4811	2535	4401	3838	347
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	5149	5075	3225	6849	6640	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	6760	7242	3743	10031	9815	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	3	958	0	78	946	816	109
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	28	3250	3823	1727	5257	4844	230
BAKKEN	3-2020	21	4191	3736	4316	5697	5586	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	15	445	676	135	856	759	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	902	695	157	1515	1306	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	789	874	210	1616	1259	141
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	965	900	293	1929	1634	86