Civil Disobedience On Social Media -- April 20, 2020

I don't follow the news or social media often enough to know how fast things are changing, or even if they are changing at all, but if there is talk of social disobedience, this screenshot is as good as any to explain to folks why social disobedience might be an "it."

For the archives. I have no dog in this fight. I don't golf. LOL.

In our apartment complex, we now have 3-year-old kids outside wearing surgical masks. With no one else around except their parents.

On another note, the tea leaves suggest MLB season is "lost" this year. 

Trump Was Correct -- Again -- April 20, 2020

Full transcript from PowerLine:

Evidence is mounting, via antibody tests, that far more people in the U.S. have been infected with the Wuhan virus than has previously been known. The Santa Clara study that Dr. Jay Bhattacharya described here is part of that body of evidence, as is a study released today that covered Los Angeles County:

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.

That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.

*** The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.***

This is great news because it equates to a fatality rate in a range between .0014 and .0027.

Standard seasonal flu viruses typically have a fatality rate around .001. So the evidence increasingly suggests that the Wuhan virus is a little more dangerous than seasonal influenza, but of the same order of magnitude. This would appear to have significant public policy implications.

Be sure to scroll through the comments, especially those with statistics. It's quite staggering how the WHO, CDC, and mainstream media presented this pandemic. The Wuhan flu statistics suggest this may not be worse than seasonal flu, and, oh, by the way, we have a vaccine for "seasonal flu."

Was WTI As Low As Minus $40/Bbl Today? April 20, 2020

Did y'all notice this?

WTI closed at a minus $16.20/bbl. But it was actually worse during the day.

That -$16.20/bbl was actually $21.43/bbl better than it's low. Apparently WTI traded as low as -$37.63/bbl.

One wonders if mom and pop mineral owners will be required to pay operators upwards of $40/bbl? LOL.

WTI Closes: A Negative $16.20/Bbl -- Fast And Furious -- Notes From All Over, Mid-Afternoon Edition -- April 20, 2020

Breaking: Focus On Fracking, April 19, 2020, edition has been posted.

The weekly update is usually posted Sunday; internet access issues accounted for the delay. The official date of the post is April 20, 2020, but "technically" it's the April 19, 2020, edition, at least by my calculations. Macht nichts. It will take me awhile to go through it. The writer highlights two items:

• The writer estimates US production cuts at 1 million bpd for the next two months...no special insight, the big round number just makes the math easier.
• OPEC's 9.7 million barrel per day cut was based on October 2018 production...why October 2018? because it was their highest production in 3 years....based on their February production, their cut is closer to 7.2 million barrels per day....they'd have to cut another 9.3 million bpd to balance supply and projected demand...

Oil: fascinating.

Recommendation: keep your gasoline tanks full; don't let them get below 3/4ths or maybe even 7/8ths full. 

PowerLine: link here. The headline -- Saudi Arabian tankers streaming to America. Okay, so what? Where will they unload that oil? Lots of oil storage capacity remains mid-continent US, but I doubt there's much storage along the coast.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse:

WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl. That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand the global trading market.

*****************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

-$16.20	4/20/2020	04/20/2019	04/20/2018	04/20/2017	04/20/2016
Active Rigs	31	63	59	49	28

Four new permits, #37526 - #37529, inclusive -- the daily activity report only reports two new permits (#37526, #37527) but "well search" suggests there were four new permits as noted below --

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Dublin
• Comments:
• Crescent Point Energy has permits for four Pankake wells in SESE/SWSE 31-158-99, Dublin oil field;
• the wells will be sited in section 31, but will south into sections 6/7 where is one producing well -- 
• 21043, 554, Bruin, Pankake 157-99-6A-7-1H, Dubline, t12/11;cum 238K 7/19; offline 8/19; remains offline 2/20;

One permit canceled:

• Bruin, #25445, Ann H. Thome 5-25-36H; Strandahl oil field;

Tea Leaves Suggest "We" Are Reaching A Tipping Point -- Monday, April 20, 2020

Crash: oilprice server has crashed. I assume the site was overwhelmed with hits. Truly amazing. Third try: in. Other links at the site won't load. -- 1:24 p.m. CT -- April 20, 2020.

If folks don't see this crash as bigger than the 2008 / 2009 crash, .... I mentioned that some time ago. Spot price for OPEC basket was a minus $7 / bbl last week, so WTI has a lot farther to fall. And if anyone missed the story, Saudi Aramco is buying up assets from major European oil companies. If folks haven't listened to the rants in the movie Network, it might be a good time to re-watch the movie.

Lock down: tea leaves suggest "we" are reaching tipping point on nationwide / statewide lock downs. I'm looking for major news by the end of the week.

WTI: tea leaves suggest time for Trump administration to take action against Russia, Saudi Arabia. One item, link here.

*******************************

Cardinals In Sophia's Back Yard

There are a lot of cardinals in this neighborhood. At least three cardinals -- probably a family -- routinely show up at Sophia's house. On the way to the park we saw another male cardinal.

MRO Reports Two Monster Wells -- Already Choked Back? April 20, 2020

The wells:

• 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20; a 47K month; note the IP;
• 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20;

See this post for graphics, neighboring wells, other background information regarding these wells, link here.
 

**********************************

Turtles At Local Creek

Feeding the turtles at the local creek.

Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday; WTI At $11.60 -- Historic Crash -- April 20, 2020

WTI: drops to record low of $8.80/bbl in mid-day trading. Could oil go "negative"?

OPEC Basket, April 17, 2020, link here: $18.16.  

OPEC Basket, oilprice, link here:  $17.73.

*********************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$11.60	4/20/2020	04/20/2019	04/20/2018	04/20/2017	04/20/2016
Active Rigs	32	63	59	49	28

Wells coming off the confidential list today --  

Monday, April 20, 2020: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 282 for the year:

• 36412, 1,734, EOG, Clarks Creek 47-0706H, Clarks Creek, t10/19; cum 136K 2/10; a 37K month;
• 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20; a 47K month; note the IP;
• 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20;
• 33621, drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 6-1-12TFH, Sand Creek,

Sunday, April 19, 2020: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 278 for the year:

• 35817, 411, Oasis, Oasis Meiers 5692 11-19 11T, Alger, t11/19; cum 45K 2/20;
• 35123, loc, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30B, Haystack Butte,
• 33810, drl, BR, CCU Gopher 8-2-15TFH, Corral Creek,
• 33623, drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 5-1-12H, Sand Creek,

Saturday, April 18, 2020: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 274 for the year:

• 35122, drl, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30E, Haystack Butte,

RBN Energy: oil natural gas, and NGLs in post-COVID, 2021 - 2025 markets.

In an energy market filled with incalculable uncertainty, it is no surprise that most of the focus is on the short term: production shut-ins, collapsing demand, refinery unit shutdowns, ballooning storage inventories and continually weakening prices. But even in the face of such dire circumstances in the weeks just ahead, there remains a cautious optimism — relatively speaking — for the resumption of some kind of new normal on the other side of COVID. You can see that expectation in the numbers, with the WTI May 2020 contract settling on Friday at $18.27/bbl, but the May 2020 contract up to $35.52/bbl. Granted, that May 2021 price would have been catastrophic if viewed in January 2020, but now it’s a bullish 95% increase over the front month.  It is that shift in perspective that underlies the fundamentals content that we developed for our two-day Spring 2020 Virtual School of Energy, held last week in the cloud: how things were viewed BEFORE the meltdown, and how things look AFTER — over the next five years. Did you miss the conference? Not to worry. The entire 14 hours of content are available online in our encore edition. It’s almost like being there! Today’s advertorial blog reviews some of the most important findings we covered at School of Energy and summarizes our overall virtual conference curriculum.

Are we starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a head fake? Most states have imposed lockdown measures, shuttering businesses and restricting social contact, but the number of COVID cases and deaths continues to rise, albeit at a slower rate. Here in the Lone Star State, Gov. Greg Abbott is doing a limited reopening of state services and businesses starting this week. Are we ready for that? It is impossible to know whether we are taking two steps forward but will be forced to take one step back in a few weeks. But regardless of how the timing of the reopening plays out, most of us believe that the U.S. — and the rest of the world, for that matter — will be open for business at some point in the hopefully not too distant future, so that the second quarter of 2020 will turn out to be the worst of the pandemic. Let’s assume that’s the most likely scenario, if for no other reason than an extension of the lockdown for the rest of the year is a concept so dire that we would rather not contemplate the implications — not yet anyway.

It's Getting Curiouser And Curiouser -- April 20, 2020

Something tells me things have gone awry. Seriously awry.

One of the first things I'm going to check tomorrow: OPEC basket at this link. 

Later. Things have gone very awry. WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl.

That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand global trading.

****************************

The Movie Page

It's too late; I won't stay up to see the end of the movie. Okay, twenty more minutes -- maybe I can "last" that long.

TCM: Babyface. The 1933 version.

Based on a story by Darryl F. Zanuck.

I was unable to find the "back story." On whom did Zanuck base the story? I have my hunch.

Primary clues: banking, sex, Paris.

Clues: sex (lots of sex, pre-code-Hollywood); woman works her way to the top; moves from NYC to Paris; banking; 1930's.  In real life, husband of whom I am thinking became a maker of experimental films in the late 1940s. Incredibly coincidental. I'm sure I'm wrong, but ...

**************************

Cryptic

Due to nationwide / statewide lock down, all soccer activities for Olivia -- who lives and breathes soccer -- have been canceled for several weeks now. We had a slight ray of hope the other day that there might be some relaxing of the lock down that would allow some soccer practice, but as recently as a few days ago, that fell through.

Then, out of nowhere, moments ago, 12:39 a.m., Monday morning, April 20, 2020, I get a computer-generated e-mail note that practice is scheduled for Tuesday, April 21, 2020, but the input would have come from the coach, suggesting that there has been a "break" in the lock down.

I know the Texas governor has relaxed / eased some restrictions; President Trump has become more vocal about getting the country back to work; and, Tutor Time, Sophia's day care program, has said it will re-open on a limited basis starting April 27, 2020.

The tea leaves suggest -- at least in the local area -- things are starting to move. Very, very interesting. Several weeks ago, the president originally suggested the country would start to "re-open" by Easter.
 We're a week out from Easter. One wonders.

I'm getting far out in front of my headlights, but if the country starts to move / re-open prior to May 1, 2020, things could move very, very quickly.

Anticipation -- April 19, 2020

Graphic: pending.

The wells:

• 17091, 575, Kraken, Meiers 11-19H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 192K 2/20;
• 23144, 484, Kraken, Lee 19-20-29H, Sanish, t9/12; cum 163K 2/20;
• 19081, 788, Kraken, Lynn 19-20-29H, Sanish, t2/13; cum 244K 2/20;
• 23145, 714, Kraken, Luke 19-20-29H, Sanish, t10/12; cum 188K 2/20;
• 17098, 516, Kraken, Domaskin 11-20H, Sanish, t9/08; cum 233K 2/20;
• 23713, 319, Kraken, Diamond J 41-20H, Sanish, t2/13; cum 106K 2/20;

This is quite interesting. The graphic is very, very interesting. I'll post it when I get caught up.

17091:

BAKKEN	11-2019	30	773	961	1631	788	0	578
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	920	922	1955	938	3	718
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	945	935	2037	964	24	792
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	1433	1385	2027	1462	40	1267
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	724	468	3112	818	267	429
BAKKEN	6-2019	29	678	710	4494	766	109	513
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	18	229	446	188	260	7	129
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	375	246	275	530	170	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	433	483	318	617	369	0

23144:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	1857	1797	3545	1890	53	1634
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	2072	2175	3908	2109	1193	669
BAKKEN	12-2019	28	1951	2218	3500	1986	247	1515
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	2014	1693	3534	2050	11	1829
BAKKEN	10-2019	23	1706	2079	3142	1737	5	1568
BAKKEN	9-2019	26	1770	1408	4027	1801	53	1616
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	1604	1653	5690	1633	96	1382
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	1504	1597	6501	1531	560	848
BAKKEN	6-2019	29	1732	1870	6407	1763	408	1212
BAKKEN	5-2019	2	453	0	122	651	150	493
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	13	266	483	210	840	752	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	612	477	483	1171	807	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	659	729	536	761	0	513
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	583	476	475	1955	1738	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	696	749	596	2462	2252	0

19081:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	1732	1792	2417	1751	4	1544
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	2123	2156	3089	2146	15	1883
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	2477	2607	3502	2505	222	2038
BAKKEN	11-2019	29	2406	2415	3274	2432	0	2226
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	2851	2738	3854	2882	10	2657
BAKKEN	9-2019	27	2784	2730	3670	2814	20	2659
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	3071	3427	3977	3105	135	2815
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	3771	3746	5887	3813	1693	1999
BAKKEN	6-2019	24	3341	2830	6368	3378	1386	1874
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	12	277	237	153	517	433	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	670	703	352	1200	836	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	709	954	375	1224	976	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	574	464	300	1018	801	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	706	491	370	1309	1099	0

23145:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	1302	1268	1306	1823	769	851
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	1923	1945	1879	2692	2009	438
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	1733	2050	2290	2426	2098	80
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	1827	1707	2076	1849	1498	141
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	2056	2097	2552	2080	1288	577
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	1872	1605	2944	1894	935	810
BAKKEN	8-2019	28	1740	2032	3595	1761	936	687
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	1600	1861	4665	1619	420	1077
BAKKEN	6-2019	28	2057	1612	5834	2082	0	1942
BAKKEN	5-2019	2	288	0	793	575	0	567
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	197	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	26	649	706	350	966	325	303
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	837	977	482	959	0	711
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	844	739	450	1249	802	230

17098:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	199	249	192	270	3	64
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	437	487	551	445	80	117
BAKKEN	12-2019	30	871	973	966	888	46	602
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	1035	1003	1311	1055	0	845
BAKKEN	10-2019	27	1167	1201	1628	1189	3	998
BAKKEN	9-2019	28	1538	1604	2323	1568	70	1360
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	1824	1800	3055	1859	147	1557
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	1613	1618	3730	1643	411	1112
BAKKEN	6-2019	26	1612	1404	4222	1643	108	1405
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	147	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	18	354	248	202	772	646	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	601	719	378	1314	950	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	23	641	474	558	1125	943	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	24	425	492	232	829	661	0

23713:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	1622	1685	1565	1541	20	1318
BAKKEN	1-2020	24	1773	1703	1804	1685	288	1201
BAKKEN	12-2019	24	1856	2272	1666	1763	496	1075
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	2666	2518	2597	2533	179	2144
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	3063	3227	2882	2910	122	2574
BAKKEN	9-2019	28	3100	2763	2842	2945	84	2722
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	3864	4131	3515	3671	106	3410
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	3499	3643	3969	3587	1134	2329
BAKKEN	6-2019	24	3339	2836	5079	3423	232	3073
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	19	294	241	204	388	253	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	408	461	128	515	151	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	485	699	104	535	0	287