Again, today, I might not be receiving
Yahoo Mail. If readers are sending comments or links to articles, I am not getting them. I reply to all e-mail. If you are not getting a response from me, I am not receiving your e-mail.
Dynamic link here.
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ObamaCare Update
Since the original post below, it appears that there is yet another study suggesting that about 2 million previously uninsured may have enrolled in ObamaCare and about 1 million will actually their first month's premium (see this link at Yahoo!News.)
Fiscal Times has a long in-depth look at two studies regarding ObamaCare. Two items becoming clear:
- less signed up than even worse-case scenarios
- "wrong-type" of enrollees signed up
First, the numbers:
First, a significant amount of
this increase comes from Medicaid enrollments, not private insurance.
Almost six million people enrolled in Medicaid, and earlier studies
showed that a relatively small number of those came from the expansion
built into the ACA; most of these would have been Medicaid-eligible
prior to the reform.
Another
8.2 million more people enrolled in employer-provided health care, as
7.1 million left the “other” category and another 1.6 million left the
individual insurance markets. Only 3.9 million actually enrolled in
insurance plans through state or federal exchanges – not 7.1 million as
claimed by Obama.
That number falls far short of even the lowered
expectations issued by HHS and the White House earlier this year.
It's actually worse, later in the article, near the end:
Of those who enrolled in an exchange plan, Express Scripts finds, 43 percent already had Express Scripts
coverage in 2013 – and at least some of the other 57 percent may have
had coverage under another prescription-medication management service.
If the total number of actual exchange enrollees is 3.9 million, the
final number of previously uninsured exchange consumers may be only as
high as 2.23 million. [At $2 trillion/2million, that works out to $1 million per new, previously uninsured, enrollee.]
Now, the demographics of those who enrolled:
Moreover, those who did enroll
through the state exchanges didn’t provide the demographic lift and
risk-pool support needed to prevent massive increases in either premiums
or deductibles, or both, in the near future. Pharmacy benefit manager
Express Scripts, which collected more data from insurers than HHS
managed through its own exchanges, determined that the incoming
enrollees require more medical attention than the previous risk pools,
not less – which means that insurers will need to raise premiums even
more than first thought.
Their new study shows,
for instance, that the enrollees from state and federal exchanges have a
47 percent higher use of specialty medications than in commercial plans
in general. “Increased volume for higher cost specialty drugs can have a
significant impact on the cost burden for both plan sponsors and
patients,” the report reminds readers. “Despite comprising less than 1
percent of all U.S. prescriptions,” the report continues, “specialty
medications now account for more than a quarter of the country’s total
pharmacy spend.”
The
medications themselves show that the care costs will increase relative
to the existing risk pools as well. The rate for HIV medications in
Obamacare exchange plans is four times higher than in existing
commercial plans. Medication prescriptions are 35 percent higher, and
anti-seizure medication increases 27 percent. Ironically, the only
category where exchange consumers have lower demand than commercial-plan
customers is in contraception – the focus of a big political battle in
the employer mandate.
Like many studies, the results only confirm what common sense predicted.
What does this mean? Common sense will tell you that, but let's see what
Fiscal Times has to say, again repeating:
.... insurers will need to raise premiums even more than first thought.
My hunch:
- open season this autumn will be delayed until after the election
- the president will cap 2015 premiums at 2014 levels
- existing mandates will be delayed ... again
The concluding paragraphs from
The Fiscal Times were most interesting:
The debate on the law is far from over. When the next round of premium
increases hits over the summer, and the market for employer-provided
health insurance undergoes the same kind of massive disruption as the
individual market did over the last six months, the debate over the
honesty and integrity of the Obama administration may hit new levels of
intensity.
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Natural Gas Dispute In Ukraine -- Getting Nastier, and More Expensive By the Day
I think of Sylvia Nasar's
Grand Pursuit. The "Crimean/Ukraine" issue has all the potential of spiraling out of control. The reason: asymmetrical heads of state. Putin sees himself much, much stronger than Obama. Putin is not going to be the one to "blink" when it comes to dealing with Obama. Obama is further handicapped by a weak SecState, John Kerry, a confused military veteran who failed as a presidential contender. Accurate or not, that's how Putin sees him.
From the AP:
Dragging much of Europe into his fight with Ukraine, Russian President
Vladimir Putin urged European leaders Thursday to quickly help Ukraine
settle its gas debt to Russia to prevent an imminent shutdown of Russian
natural gas supplies to the continent.
Putin's letter to 18 leaders,
released Thursday by the Kremlin, is part of Russia's efforts to retain
control over its struggling neighbor, which is teetering on the verge of
financial ruin and is facing a pro-Russian separatist mutiny in the
east.
A large Russian military
buildup alongside the Ukrainian border has also raised fears that the
Kremlin could use the tensions in eastern Ukraine as a pretext to
invade, following Moscow's annexation of Crimea last month.
Putin's
move raises the specter of a new gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine
that could affect much of Europe. In 2009, Moscow turned off supplies
to Kiev, leading to the shutdown of Russian gas moving across Ukrainian
pipelines to other European countries.
My hunch is that existing and proposed sanctions are placing a heavy financial toll on Russia (that's been published in the mainstream media). If that's true, it's all the more reason Putin will hold Europe hostage until he gets paid a fair price of his country's natural gas.
I am greatly confused by the price of oil right now, with WTI solidly over $103. I'm beginning to think it may have more to do with Russia than I realize.
There are a lot of moving parts geo-politically at the moment, all exacerbated by a rudderless and weak US president. With a weak and rudderless US president, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Putin to negotiate with ... who would he negotiate with? Google "kerry foreign policy spiraling out of control."
How bad is it:
The amount that Putin claims
Ukraine owes is growing by billions every day. In the letter, Putin said
Ukraine owes Russia $17 billion in gas discounts and potentially
another $18.4 billion incurred by Ukraine as a minimal take-or-pay fine
under their 2009 gas contract.
He added, on top of that $35.4 billion, Russia also holds $3 billion in Ukrainian government bonds.
Germany could be left holding the bag. Again.
Stevie Ray Vaughan, Live at Montreux
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For Investors Only
Blackberry may get out of cell phones completely. At the same link, it is being reported that Whole Foods, the high-end grocer is getting whacked by over 2% on the news that Walmart is pushing on it's turf. This morning Walmart announced a plan to
partner with Wild Oats on an expansion of Walmart's organic offerings
starting this month. Walmart says customers will save around 25% or more
when compared to other national brand organic products. It remains to
be seen if organic customers are going to be willing to shop for their
feel-good products at the Darth Vader of retailers, but those who do
will be paying less. That's obviously a direct threat to Whole Foods'
bottom line.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
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Putin Takes The Crimean; The BLM Takes A Nevada Ranch
Apparently At The Urging Of Senator Reid For Solar Farms
