The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 09/01/21

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Technology Is Simply Amazing -- September 1, 2021

Not a day goes by that I'm not impressed by technology.

Regular readers know I give examples on a regular basis.

Here's another one.

On the first of every month, I receive an e-mail alert from my cell phone provider that my monthly statement is ready to be viewed and ready for payment.

I've been with Sprint for decades, and was somewhat upset when Sprint was acquired by T-Mobile. I've always been impressed with T-Mobile and had considered to switch from Sprint to T-Mobile over the years, but their coverage was a bit spotty in some areas that I often traveled.

Having said that, I was familiar with Sprint, their webpage, their statements, userid and passwords, etc., and didn't want to switch to T-Mobile even though it was probably going to be awesome.

LOL.

I have three phones on my account with Sprint, now Sprint-T-Mobile, some day, T-Mobile.

I still have to switch out the current Sprint SIM card with the new T-Mobile card.

Memo to self.

Anyway, today, I got my monthly bill. Long story short, it was not what I expected.

I contacted Sprint-T-Mobile on line, and the usual "chat" line opened up.

Everything was in order; I was quite impressed; and we moved on.

The webpage had changed, that was fine, but Sprint-T-Mobile said that the bill would be paid by an automatic withdrawal from my bank account (auto-pay) on the 15th of each month and that by so-doing I would save $5 / line, or in this case, $15/ month.

I have never, never enrolled in autopay but Sprint-T-Mobile said it had already been set up and that's how it would be paid.

I did not discuss this with Sprint-T-Mobile but I figured it out. No, I had never had autopay -- I checked my bank statements while waiting to talk to a Sprint-T-Mobile employee. But it appears that Sprint-T-Mobile simply set up an auto-pay account using my paper check history of how I've paid monthly bills for the past several decades.

Very, very clever.

Nothing to do on my part. It was just sort of "sneaky."

But I'm saving $15/month and I didn't have to do a thing. I set a calendar reminder to ensure that the bill is paid. And we move on.

Light Rail -- DFW Metropolis -- September 1, 2021

Trinity Metro is "our" light rail system in the DFW area, running from Ft Worth, TX, in the west, through Grapevine, TX, and then east to the DFW airport, where it connects with light rail into Dallas, TX.

It's an awesome, ultra-modern system. It began service a couple of years ago. I was really, really hoping it would do well. It really was a great idea: providing transportation for the thousands of minimum-wage employees working out at DFW, but living where housing was more affordable.

But from day 1, one could see that ridership was going to be very, very low. I think travel on the Trinity Metro was free for quite some time, hoping to get folks used to.

Then Covid-19.

I am unable to find ridership numbers but every time I see a four-car Trinity Metro train go by, it is generally completely empty.

Covid-19 may have something to do with that, but I didn't think it was going to work regardless.

So, now after two or three years of really, really low ridership, Trinity Metro is going to try free rides again. I assume one of the reasons for doing this is to see what the potential ridership might be.

Oasis With Three Lindvig Beck Federal Permits -- September 1, 2021

Active rigs, per the daily activity report:

	9/1/2021	09/01/2020	09/01/2019	09/01/2018	09/01/2017
Active Rigs	24*	10	64	63	56

Twenty-four oil and gas active rigs

two SWD rigs: (Zavanna's Edgar 1-10 SWD); and, Koda Resources (Stout 34-1 SWD)

Three new permits, #38527 - #38529, inclusive:

Operator: Oasis
Field: Camp (McKenzie)
Comments:

Oasis has permits for three more Lindvig Beck Federal wells to be sited in lot 3 section 2-152-101;
457 FNL and between 1860 FWL and 1926 FWL;

September, 2021, Hearing Dockets Posted

Link here.

Wednesday
September 29, 2021
Four pages

Remember, these are cases, not permits.

28941, NDIC, Petro-Hunt, Grinnell-Bakken; review the status of leases in sections 30 and 31, within the 2560-acre spacing unit, sections 29/30/31/32-154-96; checking progress towards developoing said sections 30/31 as a stand-up 1280-acre unit;McKenzie, Williams;
28942, Whiting, Dollar Joe-Bakken, establish two stand-up 1920-acre units; ten wells in each; total twenty wells; Williams County;
28943, Whiting, Dollar Joe-Bakken; establish four overlapping 3840-acre (six sections) spacing units; one well on each unit; Williams County;
28944, Oasis, Tobacco Garden and/or North Tobacco Garden-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County
28945, Lime Rock Resources, Little Knife-Bakken; establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each unit; Dunn County
28946, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, reduce the setback ... Dunn County
28947, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, reduce the setback ... Dunn County
28948, Little Missouri Special; bond issue, SWD, Bowman County
28949, JW Williams, indirect heated separator; setback; no location specified
28950, Blue Steel Oil and Gas, risk penalty legalese involving Slawson and WHite Butte, the Jore Federal wells; McKenzie County
28951, Hess, commingling,
28952, Hess, commingling,
28953, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken; two wells on a 3840-acre unit; Mountrail County
28954, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken; two wells on a 2560-acre unit; Mountrail County
28955, Whiting, commingling
28956, Whiting, commingling
28957, Whiting, commingling
28958, Lime Rock Resources, pooling,
28959, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, nine wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 30/31-146-93; Dunn County;
28960, MRO, pooling,

Thursday
September 30, 2021
Five pages

Remember: these are cases, not permits.

28961, NDIC, consider termination of the Tracy Mountain-Tyler unit, operated by Southwestern Production Corp, Billings County
28962, CLR, Last Chance, Baker, and/or Willow Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 7/8/8/16/17/18-153-100, one well near the section line, McKenzie, Williams counties
28963, CLR, rework #23180, Buddy 1-27H, and #23181, Domindgo 1-22H, for temporary injection of natural gas and possibly other fluids in the East Fork-Bakken, Williams County
28964, WPX and Enerplus Resources; Mandaree-Bakken; i) drill a well with the lateral 300 feet from the east line of a proposed 640-acre unit; and, ii) a well with a lateral to be located approximately 300 from the west line of a proposed 640-acre unit; Dunn County
28965, WPX, Big Bend-Bakken, establish i) an overlapping 640-acre unit two wells; ii) an overlapping 960-acre unit; two wells; iii) an overlapping 1280-acre unit, one well; Mountrail County
28966, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish i) two overlapping 1920-acre units; five wells on each unit; ii) an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; a total of eleven wells; Dunn, McLean counties
28967, RimRock, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, four wells; or alternative option but still four wells; Dunn County;
28968, Hunt Oil, pooling
28969, CLR, pooling,
28970, CRL, pooling,
28971, CLR, temporary injection of fluids in the East Fork-Bakken; Williams County;
28972, CLR, temporary injection of fluids in the East Fork-Bakken; Williams County;
28973, WPX, pooling,
28974, WPX, pooling,
28975, WPX, pooling,
28976, WPX Energy, Moccasin Creek, six wells on an existing 640-acre unit; Dunn County;
28977, Crescent Point Energy, commingling
28978, XTO, commingling
28979, XTO, commingling
28980, Ovintiv, North Tobacco-Garden, two wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit; McKenzie County
28981, Ovintiv Production,twelve wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; a total of 24 wells; McKenzie County
28982, Ovintiv, commingling,
28983, Ovintiv, commingling,

October, 2021, Dockets Posted

Link here.

Monday, October 11, 2021, Bismack

Monday, October 11, 2021, Dickinson

Tuesday, October 12, 2021, Williston

Tuesday, October 12, 2021, Minot

Wednesday and Thursday, October 20 - 21, 2021.

Case #28940:

Bismarck: On a motion of the Commission to consider amendments to the "General Rules and Regulations for the Conservation of Crude Oil and Natural Gas" codified as Title 43 North Dakota Administrative Code.

Dickinson: ditto.

Williston: ditto.

Minot: ditto.

Going Swimming -- More Later -- September 1, 2021

First things first: those high wheat / corn prices in the Midwest? Hold your horses. Prices dropping precipitously. Barge traffic on Mississippi to Louisiana .... well you get the picture....

Taking Inventory -- Where Are We Today? -- Commentary -- September 1, 2021

Energy:

Europe in deep doo-doo: energy prices rising faster than ever expected

Russia controls natural gas, Nordstream 2
Groningen days are coming to an end;

current administration hates fossil fuel
even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
OPEC / Russia in control (again)
Keystone XL killed; this will come back to haunt us; no one will connect the dots;
Russia becomes second biggest source of imported oil for US
did we mention: even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US

obvious that wind / solar can't possible meet demand

War is over

that's a biggie; it's not Vietnam but it's still a biggie; in some regards it might be bigger than Vietnam:
US intel community: circular firing squad

Hurricane Ida:

a regional story, that's all

Covid-19:

things are starting to become clear;

Investors:

the bull market continues; maybe more than ever
NASDAQ up 116 points; Dow and S&P 500 up a bit, not much
AAPL: hits an intra-day high; still lags the market
trading
tax plan in Congress hits obstacle; Heidi Heitkamp leading opposition charge;
if they can't pass this tax bill, nothing much will pass?

US Oil Inventories Drop By A Whopping Seven Million Bbls; This Is Before Hurricane Ida; Dollar Weakens -- And, Yet, WTI Drops In Price -- September 1, 2021

Wow, wow, wow: US oil inventories, 26.5 days. This is the first time in a very long time, the "days of supply" has dropped below 27 days, and this was very, very fast: the previous week was 27.0. days of supply. We have to go back to late 2019 / early 2020 (pre-pandemic), to see an inventory of less than 26.5 days. Link here.

US oil demand: nearly 23 million bbls per day. Link here. Back in May, 2021: 20.094 million bbls per day; now, nearly 23 million bbls per day.

in round numbers, the US consumes 20 million bopd, link here.

from Bloomberg, July 30, 2021

demand back faster than expected
US demand provides signal of return from 2020 travel slump
consumption is so strong that the federal EIA pegged May's demand for US oil products at 20.094 million bbls per day; or almost seven percent higher than its original estimate

Link here: natural gas.

Link here to Brian Sullivan at CNBC:

US oil demand is soaring
US oil production is declining
the Keystone XL carrying oil from Canada to US refineries killed by Resident Biden
OPEC and Russia now running the global oil and gas show

While total US demand recovered in June to within 0.5% of pre-covid levels, crude production remains much lower. According to the @EIAgov , crude output in June declined month-on-month from May, at 11.3m b/d (-7.1% below June 19). Total oil liquids was virtually flat m-on-m.

Monthly EIA petroleum report, link here:

US crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 7.2 million bbls (and this was before Hurricane Ida);
US crude oil inventories now stand at 425.4 million bbls, 6% below the five-year average
refineries operated at 91.3% of their operable capacity, yawn (but this is before Hurricane Ida)
US crude oil imports average 6.3 million bpd; up by 183,000 bpd, yawn; this is 13.9% more than the previous four-week period; US crude oil imports average 6.3 million bpd over the past four weeks;
propane inventories increased by 0.5 million bbls last week; 20% below the five-year average;
distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls last week; inventories are 9% below the five-year average;
jet fuel product supplied was up 51.7% compared with the same four-week period last year

WTI: after the report was released, WTI dropped 0.41%, dropped 28 cents, is now trading at $68.22.

DXY: 92.430, down 0.210.

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 17	July 8, 2020	7.4	1.400	-8.500%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	7.5	-1.800	-10.200%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	5.9	0.373	-13.500%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	5.1	-0.800	-13.600%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	6.0	0.900	-18.100%
Week 67	June 23, 2021	6.9	0.197	-1.00%
Week 68	June 30, 2021	6.4	-0.500	2.80%
Week 69	July 8, 2021	5.9	-0.500	-2.20%
Week 70	July 14, 2021	6.2	0.347	-0.10%
Week 71	July 21, 2021	7.1	0.900	2.90%
Week 72	July 28, 2021	6.5	-0.600	6.90%
Week 73	August 4, 2021	6.4	-0.075	15.80%
Week 74	August 11, 2021	6.5	-0.036	16.30%
Week 75	August 18, 2021	6.4	-0.064	14.10%
Week 76	August 25, 2021	6.2	-0.193	8.80%
Week 77	September 1, 2021	6.3	-0.183	13.90%

In Case You Missed It -- Re-Posting -- September 1, 2021

Re-posting.

Covid-19: not sure what this means, but something to be watched -- link here --

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — The South Dakota National Guard has been activated to help with the state's response to COVID-19.

Guard members ... are being deployed to assist with testing for Monument Health in Rapid City and could be needed in Sturgis, Spearfish, Deadwood and Custer.

The state Department of Health reported Tuesday that Pennington County, where Rapid City is located, had more than twice as many new COVID-19 cases than any other county in the state. The number of people on ventilators in Rapid City also more than doubled since Monday’s update.

The Guard was activated in 2020 to help with the COVID-19 outbreak by manning a hotline, setting up mass testing sites and conducting contact tracing. Soldiers also prepared to establish temporary field hospitals in Sioux Falls and Rapid City.

Active cases and deaths data: linked here.

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- September 1, 2021

Sky-high electricity prices in Europe; now a top political issue in Spain (front page story in main newspapers); at an all time time; over $150 / MWh; more than double the 10-year average; link here;

the gas crunch hitting the UK and Europe now means prices are between five and six times higher than they were in September, 2019, link here;
the prices feed through to effect everything from household electricity and heating bills to the cost for industry;

Biden kills Keystone XL; US oil imports from Russia, link here:

2017: 420K per day;
2018: 310K per day;
2019: 250K per day;
2020: 440K per day;
2021: 810K per day
an all-time high (EIA, Bloomberg)
double that of previous record years
is anyone paying attention; does anyone care?

Russia ranks second by petroleum exports to US in June, 2021. Link here. Or link to Tass directly. The link.

Got gas? Shale natural gas production in the Appalachian Basin reaches highs in first half of 2021. Link here. To EIA here.

Notes From All Over -- Why I Love To Blog, Reason #4 -- Part 2, 2021

Updates

September 23, 2021: summary of evidence here.

September 7, 2021: the Indian experience.

September 6, 2021: a gedankenexperiment.

September 1, 2021: a very, very interesting, but very, very long article on ivermectin. Published May 1, 2021, this year in Mountain Home: Pennsylvania and the New York Finger Lakes.

Original Post

Ivermectin.

Yesterday I posted a long note -- thank you to a reader for sending me a note regarding the issue -- regarding Ivermectin.

One reader said he/she forwarded the link to that post "everywhere."

The reader must have sent one to a judge in Ohio.

Today, from ZeroHedge, an Ohio judge orders hospital to treat ventilated Covid-19 patients with Ivermectin.

With regard to Ivermectin, let's take a look:

On a whim, a reader checked his/her formulary .... Silver Script/Aetna - I'm 65+, so it's an addon to Medicare.

Anyway, lo and behold, under "Anti-Infectives, Miscellaneous", Ivermectin is listed as a Tier 3 medication and a generic equivalent of "Stromectrol".

The Tier 3 level is truly middle of the road. It isn't subject to prior authorization, step therapy, limited access, quantity limits. It's available mail order. It's not classified as high risk.

So, it'd be under $50 bucks, but it's still a fixed cost to the patient. The cheapest, Tier 1, are $8. When you get into Tier 4 and Tier 5, the patient has to pay either 33% or 50% - no limit to the total dollar.

Is this why the government is so concerned about Ivermectin / Stromectrol? Apparently it's essentially an over-the-counter medication if I'm reading that correctly.

Google it; easily available. $16.95 for 200 tablets.

For investors: SDA Laboratories.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Looks like it's a 3mg tab

Notes From All Over -- Part 1, 2021

"Set to rebound": LOL. That was the crawler this morning on CNBC. [Note: I forced myself to watch. Jim Cramer apparently has the week off.] Yesterday the market barely, barely, barely closed in the red. I mean it was a very, very, very minor "pullback." LOL. A "pullback." Whatever. Today, CNBC has this crawler: the market is set to rebound. LOL.

Dow: up about 100 points, although it has dropped to 40 points in the green. volatility as the market opens
S&P 500: up 10 points
NASDAQ: up points

Reminder:

September is the worst month for investors -- CNBC
this is the first trading day of the last quarter of 2021

Most ridiculous meme: September is the worst month for investors.

NASDAQ has just hit another intra-day all time high. CNBC now trying to talk the market down. If they want to push that narrative, they need to find other folks to interview and they need to quit reporting all these new intra-day highs.

WTI: has just dropped 1.7%; down $1.14; trading at $67.36

DXY: 92.44; down 0.19; all things being equal, WTI should rise; it didn't. It dropped. EIA's weekly petroleum report out in a few minutes.

TYT: 1.302%. Unchanged.

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- September 1, 2021

Ivermectin: after my post yesterday on Ivermectin, a reader said he/she said she forwarded it "everywhere." LOL. Today, we learn that Ohio judge has ruled that hospitals in that state will require Covid-19 patients in ICUs to be treated with Ivermectin if the patients request such treatment.

Russia: we started posting this several months ago on the blog, now it's becoming a "thing" over on twitter energy feeds. Russia is now the second biggest importer of oil to the US.

Russia: limiting amount of natural gas it will send Germany via Nordstream 2. Who wudda thought?

Cost of energy: out of control in Europe. Again, we've been reporting this for months. And, again, like the Russian oil story, the cost of energy has become a "thing" over on twitter energy feeds. Cost of electricity in Europe is now out of control.

Cost of energy: several US states are seeing huge increases in price for electricity. Readers might be surprised when they see the list. Pending.

Bottleneck: another story we've reported many times over the years -- the backlog of cargo ships sitting off the coast of California has his another all-time high, and apparently the forecast is: this is just the beginning. See this link over at ZeroHedge.

Market: right now, there are four major US equity indices -- Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000. Prediction: ten years from now, a fifth index will be added: CW-40.

Afghanistan: yesterday we predicted that this story would disappear a week from now. Today, a reader told me that "Afghanistan" was the fifth story on NBC headline news this morning, preceded by a) military helicopter crash off coast of US; b) Hurricane Ida/Louisiana; c) rain in NYC; d) California fires; and, then, e) Kabul. This is happening faster than the US intel community predicted. LOL. When the Kabul / Afghanistan story, the day after the August 31, 2021, deadline, comes in "after" the NYC rain story, one knows Resident Biden can sleep more easily knowing this has already become a non-story.

Step-up death tax: update pending.

Market: September is the worst month for investors. How bad is September. On average, the "market" falls one percent during the month of September. Source? CNBC.

Gasoline in Louisiana:

eight of nineteen Louisiana refineries remain closed;
30 to 40 percent of gasoline service stations closed;
wait time for gasoline up to two hours

*********************************
Back to the Bakken
Whiting: I have trouble believing Whiting has taken "all" its wells off line. NDIC has an IT problem and it's very possible the Whiting data has not yet been populated. I honestly don't know. But every Whiting well I looked at yesterday, and there were lots of them, show no oil production in 7/21. However, those wells all showed natural gas production and natural gas sales, so I have no idea what's going on with Whiting.

Active rigs": current data is reported at COB.

$68.74	9/1/2021	09/01/2020	09/01/2019	09/01/2018	09/01/2017
Active Rigs	24*	10	64	63	56

No new permits.

RBN Energy: Plains All American targets long-term growth from key shale infrastructure.

The seven years since the heady days of $100/bbl oil in mid-2014 have been a tumultuous time for midstream companies tasked with funding a massive infrastructure build-out to support surging crude oil and natural gas production.

Midstreamers have been buffeted by volatile commodity prices, waves of E&P bankruptcies, rapidly shifting investor sentiment, and, finally, a global pandemic. Perhaps no company has had a more challenging road than master limited partnership (MLP) Plains All American, which had to cut unitholder distributions three times over a turbulent five years as it built out a crude gathering and long-haul transportation portfolio focused on the Permian Basin.

With its capital program winding down, commodity prices rising, and a new joint venture in the works, can Plains performance rebound and win back investor support? In today’s blog, we discuss highlights from our new Spotlight report on Plains, which lays out how the company arrived at this juncture and how well-positioned it is to benefit from the significant recovery in commodity prices and Permian E&P activity.

The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

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