Locator: 48658GARBAGECANOFTHEWORLD.
Really?
How did we miss it?
Friday, October 25, 2024
Week 43: October 21, 2024 -- October 27, 202
Locator: 48657TOPSTORIES.
Completely unexpected: the refining stories coming out of California this past week. Reminder: this is not simply about refining oil to produce gasoline, this is about refining oil to produce California's unique CARBOB formulation. CNN: the shrinking number of oil refineries in the state .... California will likely have to source it from out-of-state (Gulf of Mexico refineries?) -- Politico. Oil and gasoline from out-of-state generally shipped in by sea. Some piped in from the north. Watch for an RBN Energy blog on this issue.
Mostly US: overriding themes going into 2025 (and beyond):
- the changing global geopolitical environment
- Netanyahu sees an opportunity to significantly change the dynamics in the Mideast
- amazingly, Iran says it won't retaliate if Israel limits its retaliation to strikes on military targets only;
- WTI barely budged late this evening when Israel launched on Iran
- not even a banner headline on Drudge
- speaks volumes about the Iranian support for its current leader, and Netanyahu knows it
- "Putin, quo vadis?"
- seriously, quo vadis?
- perhaps the first "adult book" I ever read -- read it in 8th grade, along with Carl Sandburg's Lincoln (one of the volumes); and, Giants in the Earth, Ole Rølvaag
- read the latter again a few years ago; had an even greater impact on me
- as did one of my teachers at that time, a huge impact: Ron Thue.
- the next president of the United States
- is this a 1964 redux -- Goldwater vs LBJ?
- the election of the "uns"? Unhinged, unstable vs unqualified, untested?
- the incredible energy demands of AI;
- the demand is so high, many say we need to return to nuclear energy
- investing
- the NASDAQ -- and a small number of companies -- are reshaping investing
- yes, we're back to the nifty fifty, but this time, the NASDAQ is in the spotlight, not the NYSE
- to compete, the NYSE feels it needs to expand trading to 22 hours / day
- Robinhood
- crypto
- the public perceptions of the Fed's influence on US economy
- Covid: had a bigger, lasting effect than folks realize
- even the most thick-headed now understand the cause of inflation
- even if they fail to admit it
- genetics, also bigger than folks realize
- "inflation" will kill the energy transition story, if it already hasn't
- the economic divide between the US and the EU continues to widen
- the reason? Energy. The US has check "all the above" when it comes to energy
- retail success:
- US corporations in the tier below the trillion-dollar market caps: will only survive by reputation for customer service
- this will extend all the way down to mom-and-pop retail stores in all but the smallest communities
Is the US dollar weak or strong right now?
Why was the dollar so strong in 1985?
What was the US inflation rate in 1985?
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
- Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative has seen its peak electrical demand more than double in the past 10 years, and MWEC Manager Alex Vournas believes it could double again in the next 10 years. Electricity demands in the oil patch will continue to increase, along with cryptocurrency data mining.
- Biggest risk to ND oil sector: the EPA. Even though there's a growing recognition that fossil fuel-fired generation will be needed to maintain electric reliability, Basin Electric CEO Todd Brickhouse said "regulatory risk," driven by relentless anti-fossil-fuel rules pushed by the Environmental Protection Agency, is the largest risk that Basin is currently mitigating. He said Basin has responded by pairing its all-of-the-above energy strategy with an "all-of-the-above legal strategy" to push back on EPA regulations that will affect existing operations and future construction plans.
- Basin Electric Power Cooperative is researching "nuclear." Licensing a nuclear facility is another challenge, taking 10 to 15 years.
- Minnkota's Milton R Young Station continues to expand; DOE awarded $49 million to support Project Tundra.
- Underground storage of CO2 and property rights over pore space continues to be a top story. "Amalgamation" for CO2 pore spacing is much like "pooling" in the oil sector. Attorney General Drew Wrigley, one of three members on the NDIC said the amalgamation process is only used when a supermajority (67%?) of owners want to participate.
- Measure 4: a ballot measure that would prohibit property taxes based on valuation.
- Measure 3: Legacy Fund, biennium expenditures -- max reduced from 15% (more than $1.5 bilion) to five percent (roughly $550 million).
- Measure 5: legalizes marijuana, a gateway drug.
- Wow, wow, wow: that 4-lane road from Watford City to LongX is now open. A $77 million paving project; a 12-mile project; one can do the math; not long ago, I used $1 million for a mile of pipeline; $1 million for a mile of highway.
Top story:
- full US air arsenal arrives in Mideast: F-15s, F-16s, F-22s
- THAADS in place
- Israel strike Iran! Friday night. Sabbath.
Top international non-energy story:
- Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
- 10 days until the election -- swing states: PA, NC, GA
- Trump says US is "garbage can of the world." Wow.
Top national energy story:
- WTI moves slightly higher; back up over $71
Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.
The market in a nutshell: At the close -- NASDAQ set another record; Tesla surprises with profit, rest of market languishes -- Boeing machinists strike continue; McDonald's E. coli outbreak; 10-year Treasury rises, spooking investors; --
Fight's On! Israel Strikes Iranian Military Targets -- Iran Says It Won't Retalitate If Israel Only Strkes Military Targets -- Okay -- October 25, 2024
Locator: 48656B.
F-16s arrive in Middle East. Link here. And right on cue, Israel launches airstrikes on Iran, including "near" Tehran. Link here.
WTI: up moderately after airstrikes announced. Up 2.3%; up $1.59; trading at $71.78. We've seen this movie before.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $71.78.
Active rigs: 40.
Five new permits, #41278 - #31282, inclusive:
- Operators: Hess (4); Marlo Operating
- Fields: Blue Buttes (McKenzie); Wildcat (Bowman County)
- Comments:
- Marlo Operating has a permit for a wildcat, Tosco Branch 1, SWNE 13-129-104,
- to be sited 1618 FNL and 1576 FWL;
- Hess has permits for four BB_Rice wells, NWNW 7-150-95,
- to be sited 273 FNL and at 1010 FWL; 1043 FWL; 1076 FWL; and 1576 FWL.
Seven permits renewed:
- Foundation Energy Management (6): five Trotter State permits in Cinnamon Creek, McKenzie County; and one Audrey permit, Beaver Creek, Golden Valley.
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 40325, 549, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144098-9C-4-3H, Billings County; at the NDIC, no production data; the well file provides no additional relevant information.
Everything, Everywhere Happening All At Once — The Non-Sequitur Edition — Newell Brands -- Rubbermaid -- Surges -- October 25, 2024
Locator: 48655ARCHIVES.
Selling in this market? Huge mistake? Name a sector that’s not participating!
Wow! Might SpaceX buy Boeing’s space division? Boeing CEO to machinists: divide and conquer.
Also:
Also, Reuters:
Ticker AAPL early morning trading:
IMF warns on widening gap between US and EU. One word: regulators.
- Europe: GPD -- stagnate at 1%;
- US: growing at 3% or better
- US consumer sentiment reported today -- awesome!
Mercedes: latest sales plunge. Plunge: down 64%. Blamed on Chinese sales.
Is Texas in play: both Harris and Trump are campaigning in Texas today. Someone running scared? Could Ted Cruz lose?
VW's Scout Division unveils new EVs.
Since We Last Visited CLR's #16683 Has Gone AB But Critically Not Yet PA -- October 26, 2024
Locator: 48653B.
The original post: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2021/03/damn-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead.html.
The map:
Parent well:
- 16683, AB/IA/224, CLR, Federal Jorgenson 14-5H, Haystack Butte, t12/07; cum 71K 2/20; inactive since 2/20; remains off line 1/21; last consistent production 2/20;
Here are the twenty-three Gordon Federal "daughter" wells:
- 36107, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; renewed February 22, 2021; t11/21; cum 392K 8/24;
- 36106, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 2-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; enewed February 22, 2021; t11/21; cum 256K 8/24;
- 36105, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 3-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; t11/21; cum 303K 8/24;
- 36104, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 4-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; renewed February 22, 2021; t11/21; cum 324K 8/24;
- 36103, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 5-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; renewed February 22, 2021; t11/21; cum 341K 8/24;
- 36102, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 6-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; t11/21; cum 283K 8/24;
- 36101, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 7-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; bottom hole, 4-148-97; t11/21; cum 283K 8/24;
- 36100, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 8-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; t11/21; cum 288K 8/24;
- 36099, loc-->F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 9-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; first production, 11/20; t--; cum 77K 12/20; cum 238K 8/24;
- 36098, loc-->conf-->F, CLR, Gordon Federal 10-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; producing; big well; cum 329K 8/24;
- 36097, loc-->conf-->F, CLR, Gordon Federal 11-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; producing; nice well; cum 281K 8/24;
- 36096, loc-->conf-->F, CLR, Gordon Federal 12-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; producing nice well; cum 295K 8/24;
- 36054, dr-->F/A,
CLR, Gordon Federal 13-8H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87;
middle Bakken; spud, July 30, 2019; cease drilling, October 16, 2019;
bottom hole, 9-148-97; first production, 11/20; t--; cum 78K 12/20;
- 36055, drl-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 14-5H1, Haystack Butte, producing, nice well;
- 36056, drl-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 15-8H, Haystack Butte, producing, nice well;
- 36057, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 16-5H1, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36058, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 17-8H, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36059, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 18-5H1, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36060, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 19-8H, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36061, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 20-5H1, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36062, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 21-8H, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36063, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 22-5H1, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
- 36064, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 23-8H, Haystack Butte, completed 8/24;
CLR Continues To Report New Doe Wells; Enerplus Reports Another Great Olson Well -- October 25, 2024
Locator: 48652B.
WTI: $71.12.
Friday, October 25, 2024: 49 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 563 for the year
- 40596, conf, CLR, Doe 5-23H,
- 40213, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-3H,
Thursday, October 24, 2024: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 561 for the year
- 40595, conf, CLR, Doe 4-23H,
- 40590, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 2B,
- 40220, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, NM 158-92-1-19-2MBH,
- 38205, conf, Petroshale, Bear chase North 3MBH,
Permian crude getting lighter: losing favor with refiners. We talked about this before. Years ago.
RBN Energy: the Midland crude oil hug, where Permian pricing and takeaway converge. Archived.
Midland, TX, is the epicenter of the Permian Basin. As the largest crude oil hub in the region, it boasts about 20 MMbbl of crude oil storage and extensive downstream connectivity, with the ability to deliver to local refineries, Wichita Falls, Cushing, Nederland, Houston and even Corpus Christi (albeit indirectly). It’s also where Midland WTI pricing is assessed, shaping much of the broader oil market in the region and even around the world. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss why Midland is the center of it all.
Cramer's First Hour -- October 25, 2024
Locator: 48651CRAMER.
Boeing pension: a non-starter. We'll see.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
Harris: needs to be fact-checked
- raised $1 billion in 3W24
- outspent Trump by 3x
Ten-year Treasury: 4.196%; down 0.006.
Premarket: exciting.
Energy transition: multiple notes -- Dan Tsubouchi's recurring theme. Often uses Wood MacKenzie as source.
- peak oil date extended
- transition not proceeding as well as expected
- the need for nuclear underscores how badly renewables failed to live up to the hype
- Dutch, poster child for transition, now says it won't meet climate change targets
Germany: in economic crisis? Mercedes lowers guidance.
Moore's Law: so yesterday. Doubling every two years. Now? AI performance doubling every six months.
Taiwan: following "the road to Germany" but shutting down nuclear reactors.
SCHB: up almost 1 one percent today.
SCCO: up today; sort of flat the last few months; up 70% past year.
McDonald's E.coli: six months from now, a non-story. Is Taylor Farms the problem; an issue before? McDonald's has robust supply chain tracking; quickly recognized source of problem. Outbreak continues; first lawsuit filed.
- original report: ten states; 49 infected; one death;
- now: thirteen states; 75 infected; no new deaths reported (?)
- local McDonald's busy as every -- maybe busier -- but I wouldn't know.
Biggest investment story: TSMC in Phoenix -- out-performing its Taiwan factories. Truly amazing. Leading tech higher today. Ticker? Amazing. Up 50% in six months.
- where is TSMC-Arizona getting their energy (already): nuclear; link here.
- identified early on the "chokepoint" for the LDC; giga-factories; fabs;
Tesla:
- cash-pile;
- market cap: back among the top ten;
- by the way, Cathie Wood (ARKK) cashed in on Tesla yesterday)
Boeing pension: a non-starter. We'll see.
Deere, Carharrt.
LAM and Western Digital. Start here.
China: dead money.
India: this is where the action / buzz is right now. I've started my deep dive on India.
- First notes here.
- GoogleAI: what Indian states union territories is Apple Tim Cook investing in
- wiki: Tamil Nadu --
The economy of the state consistently exceeded national average growth rates, due to reform-oriented economic policies in the 1970s.
As of 2022, Tamil Nadu's GSDP was US$280 billion, second highest amongst Indian states, which had grown significantly from US$26 billion in 2004.
Tamil Nadu is the most urbanized state in India.
Though the state had the lowest percentage of people under the poverty line, rural unemployment rate is considerably higher at 47 per thousand compared to the national average of 28.
As of 2020, the state had the most number of factories at 38,837 units with an engaged work-force of 2.6 million.
The state has a diversified industrial base anchored by different sectors including automobiles, software services, hardware, textiles, healthcare and financial services.
As of 2022, services contributed to 55% of the GSDP followed by manufacturing at 32% and agriculture at 13%.
There are 42 Special Economic Zones (SEZ) in the state.
As per a report by Government of India, Tamil Nadu is the most export competitive state of India in 2023.
- Quora: most important state or region.
Tamil Nadu had among the strongest seafaring kings who influenced a lot of southeast Asian culture. "The Hindu" (and later the Indian Express) was founded there - the first major newspaper for the freedom struggle. The Hindu helped counter the British colonial propaganda in the most refined way. TN has given 3 Nobel laureates in science, one Ramanujan and a great bunch of freedom fighters like Rajaji, Radhakrishnan & Kamaraj.
Presidential election: Vijay Jyotish, final assessment. A Vedic astrologer.
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- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
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there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
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- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
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