Random Note On Peak Oil -- May 28, 2019

Not to beat a dead horse, but a bit more on the "peak oil" discussion. This goes back to an earlier post today.

A reader commented at that post:

Yes, Adelman is really good. Every now and then he went a little overboard. But I'm about 95% aligned with him. And way better than James "hundred dollars here to stay" Hamilton.

One good remark Adelman had was that oil depletion (drilling it out) tends to move the cost curve up. But technology (broadly defined to include discovery, drilling, completion, etc.) moves it down. So he actually acknowledged the peak oiler argument. Just said that you can't consider only one side of things. This is the main error of the peak oilers, including light peak oilers like Hamilton.

A couple more oil economists I really like: James Griffin (Texas A&M) and Fereidun Fesharaki. Both think in terms of supply and demand, rather than time series. 

I was going to write more but I got side-tracked. I doubt what I was going to say was anything new.

Maybe later.

Along with James "hundred dollars here to stay" Hamilton, one could have added Art Berman. LOL.

This post is unimportant in the big scheme of things, but it reminded me to add the "Commentary_2019" tag to this post and others. I think we might come back to 2018 - 2019 some years from now and opine this was the year there was a tectonic shift in thinking about:

• peak oil
• the "Red Queen"
• swing producer: baton passed from OPEC to US shale
• OPEC: policy-driven; US shale: market driven
• conventional vs unconventional

If so, one might reflect on the fact that when tensions seemed to be flaring in the Mideast, to include attacks on tankers in the strait and drones attacking Saudi's oil fields, the price of oil actually went down.

I would like to write more but family commitments intervene.

For The Archives: Polls Regarding Recession, 2019 -- May 28, 2019

Polls at the sidebar at the right were put there to assess readers' thoughts on likelihood of recession this year. The polls were posted a week or so ago.

Today, this from CNBC: Morgan Stanley says economy is on ‘recession watch’ as bond market flashes warning.

And, of course, we have the Fed chairman who feels no cut in interest rates is warranted.

And so it goes.

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A Lot Of Water Under The Bridge

Casablanca
At one time I watched this movie once a week or thereabouts, but I haven't watched it in quite some time. But tonight -- it's a long, long story -- I was trying to find that movie with the great line, " ... a lot of water under the bridge ... " Wow, YouTube, search, etc ... and there it was.

The "relationship" between Bogart's character and Bergman's character is such that this scene is so incredible. I have watched this movie a hundred times but yet tonight I see this scene entirely different than how I've seen it before.

As weird as it sounds, I think watching interviews with David Lynch helped me better appreciate this scene. I can't say why.

Eleven New Permits -- May 28, 2019

The gasoline / diesel poll at the sidebar at the right: in this neck of the woods, north Texas, diesel is about 30 cents more expensive than the least expensive grade of gasoline. That was certainly the case near San Antonio this pass weekend; the spread might be closer to 20 cents here in the Dallas-Ft Worth area.

Lewisville, TX, about nine miles north of DFW airport: regular gasoline, $2.349; diesel, $2.699 --

Headlines and comments:

• from oilprice.com: OXY to sell Anadarko assets, as deal greatly increased debt (not a bit unusual in such a big deal, but it will be interesting to see if OXY bit off more than it could chew; but again, see this post)
• from oilprice.com: oil markets are stuck once again (the headline seems to suggest someone did not get the memo)

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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

$58.88	5/28/2019	05/28/2018	05/28/2017	05/28/2016	05/28/2015
Active Rigs	64	65	50	29	83

Eleven new permits:

• Operators: Crescent Point Energy (8); Hess (3)
• Fields: Ellisville (Williams County); Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments: 
• Crescent Point Energy has permits for an 8-well Narcisse/Austin pad in NENW 17-158-99, Ellisville oil field; they are all 275 feet from the north line, so the pad will run east-west (or west-east)
• Hess has permits for a 3-well SC-5WXpad in lot 2/section 3-152-99, Banks oil field

Note: this brings us to 606 new oil and gas permits for North Dakota so far this year. At this rate, the state is on track to issue almost 1,500 new permits. Less than a thousand wells will come off the confidential list this year.
One well released from confidential list:

• 35360, SI/NC, Hunt Oil, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-5, Werner, no production data,

The other ten wells that were scheduled to come off the confidential list today and over the long weekend were not posted and remain on the confidential list.

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After The Memorial Day Weekend

It Appears Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today Won't Be Posted Until Later -- Going For A Long Walk -- Catch You Later

I stopped subscribing to The New Yorker a couple of years ago. It had become a mouthpiece for Hillary; every issue was devoted to Hillary and tearing down Trump. I had subscribed to The New Yorker for decades but finally had to call it quits when the cartoons in one issue were all about Trump.

Enough was enough.

Gradually, over time, The New Yorker seems to be recovering from its TDS, The lead essay will always be anti-Trump as long as Trump is around, even after he's out of office, but at least, it appears, the rest of the magazine has moved on.

In the current issue, several great reads, including an essay on one of Hollywood's best writers (David Milch), and a review of Rammstein, the German hard metal band.

By the say, I now understand why the band (Rammstein) uses pyrotechnics in their show -- or at least how it got started. I assume they continue to use pyrotechnics 'cause the fans love it.

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The Apple Page

It is interesting how so many folks miss the big story.

Another example.

Apple announces an upgrade for the iPod.

A reader suggested that was the last time we will see an upgrade for the iPod.

That reader completely missed the big story.

Another revenue stream for Apple.

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The David Lynch Page

A sixty-minute interview with David Lynch. At the link, a reader has provided a "timed-index."

As some would say, "ayy lmao."

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The Restaurant Page

Calimari.

The most tender calimari I have ever had was at the 54th Street Restaurant and Drafthouse at the Rim in San Antonio, on I-10 going north just a half-mile north of Loop 1604. It was prepared in the usual way -- deep-fried, but was incredibly tender, and came with two sauces: the usual sauce for deep-fried calimari and a Tex-Mex sauce.

Today, I ordered calimari for lunch at The Lazy Dog in Grapevine, the Glades Park, and I was surprised again. This time, the calimari was not deep-fried. It was grilled and then mixed in a sauce and served on a bed of mixed brown rice and nuts. Incredibly good. The calimari was listed as a starter and that's all I wanted for lunch: a small tapa serving. The "starter" was in, fact, large enough for a full meal. As a starter it could easily be shared by four people.

This was my first time at The Lazy Dog. I'm not sure how to describe the restaurant fare except to say it was very, very eclectic. My calimari seemed like something I might see at a Chinese buffet.

54th Street Restaurant and Drafthouse: $$
The Lazy Dog: $$

Reason #1 Why I Love To Read -- Feedback And Recommendations From Readers -- May 28, 2019

Updates

Later, 8:15 p.m. Central Time: see first comment --

Thanks for the like feelings. Yeah, Adelman is really good. Every now and then he went a little overboard. But I'm about 95% aligned with him. And way better than James "hundred dollars here to stay" Hamilton.

One good remark Adelman had was that oil depletion (drilling it out) tends to move the cost curve up. But technology (broadly defined to include discovery, drilling, completion, etc.) moves it down. So he actually acknowledged the peak oiler argument. He just said that you can't consider only one side of things. This is the main error of the peak oilers, including light peak oilers like Hamilton.

A couple more oil economists I really like: James Griffin (Texas A&M) and Fereidun Fesharaki. Both think in terms of supply and demand, rather than time series. 

Original Post

If you have time for only one thing today, google "morris adelman."

I was unaware of Morris Adelman until a reader mentioned him in a comment. It is so incredibly rewarding to find someone much, much smarter than I am to be in my camp.

The NY Times obit headline for Adelman who died at age 96 back in 2014: he said oil was inexhaustible. A crackpot? Hardly. A long-time professor at MIT.

Some google hits:

• The real oil problem, 2004.

There is not, and never has been, an oil crisis or gap. Oil reserves are not dwindling. The Middle East does not have and has never had any oil weapon. The real problem we face over oil dates from after 1970: a strong but clumsy monopoly of mostly Middle Eastern exporters cooperating as OPEC. The biggest exporters have acted in concert to limit supply and thus raise oil price - possibly too high even for their own good. The output levels they establish by trial-and-error are very unstable. OPEC has damaged the world economy, not by malice, but because its members cannot help but do so. 

• The economics of petroleum supply, papers by Morris Adelman, 1962 -  1993.

• OPEC, citations, undated, probably 2005 or 2006.

• OPEC stability, an empirical assessment, citations, July, 1988. Wow, that goes back a long, long way.

It's amazing. John Kemp loves to read, and he loves to post his book recommendations. To the best of my knowledge, based on his tweets, the Reuters oil analyst has never read or recommended anything by Morris Adelman.

The more I read, the more I see "face news" and "disinformation."

I fell for that meme, "peak oil," years ago. It took a long time to be woke.

My generation fell for the "peak oil" story; the current generation is falling for the "global warming" story.  CO2 as a toxin. Wow.

Keeping New Mexico Great -- The Washington Times -- A Dickinson Firm Makes History -- May 28, 2019

First-ever private border wall built in New Mexico by Dickinson, ND, firm. Pretty cool. 

Link to The Washington Times story here.

Screenshot from a reader:

"The biggest jet there is the Fisher corporate jet." Correction: "The biggest private jet is ONE of the Fisher corporate jets"  

From the linked article:

The section was also built faster and, organizers say, likely more cheaply than the government has been able to manage in recent years.

Kris Kobach, a former secretary of state in Kansas and an informal immigration adviser to President Trump, says the New Mexico project has the president’s blessing and says local Border Patrol agents are eager to have the assistance.

Construction began Friday and will be completed Tuesday, Mr. Kobach said. Tommy Fisher’s Fisher Sand & Gravel did the construction.

Mr. Fisher has been in the news recently with Mr. Trump suggesting repeatedly and publicly that the government should consider his outfit for future border wall construction.

He was one of the contractors selected in 2017 to build wall prototypes in San Diego. None of those prototypes was deemed contract-worthy, and Congress has forbidden the Border Patrol from using any of those designs anyway.

More recently Mr. Fisher announced he could build 234 miles of fencing at $1.4 billion — or about $6 million per mile. That’s about a quarter of the cost of Mr. Trump’s current fencing, which goes off at about $25 million per mile.

The half-mile in New Mexico cost $8 million, but Mr. Kobach said because part of it involved building on Mount Cristo Rey and involved moving a lot of dirt, that’s more expensive than most mileage would be.

2019, Hall of Famer, Pit and Quarry: Gene Fisher.

Born and raised on a farm in North Dakota, Gene Fisher was a problem solver with a knack for entrepreneurship and ingenuity. In 1952, at the age of just 24 years old, Fisher established Fisher Sand & Gravel Co. and laid the foundation for what would become one of the largest sand and gravel producers in the United States.

“Dad finished up with his high school education and people said ‘you became very successful without a college education,’” says Tommy Fisher, Gene’s son and the current president of Fisher Industries.

“He missed his high school picnic to screen gravel. Dad was always an entrepreneur.”

Gene, who died in 2013, realized that maintaining and repairing equipment was costly. Faced with a business challenge, he did what he was best at: solving problems.

Solution?

In 1967, Gene launched General Steel & Supply Co., the equipment support arm to Fisher Sand & Gravel.

This allowed him to be innovative when building custom and top-quality aggregate processing equipment.

“That was always Dad’s greatest move,” Tommy says of General Steel & Supply. “Crushing is an abusive sort of business. When you break rock, it’s hard on equipment. So when you have your own equipment and can build it a little more heavy duty, it makes you that much more successful.”

General Steel & Supply made it possible for Gene to design, fabricate, field-test, demonstrate, assemble and deliver custom equipment not just for Fisher Sand & Gravel, but also for aggregate companies throughout the industry.

"Making Others Great Again" -- US Policy In The Arctic -- May 28, 2019

We had the Monroe Doctrine, the Truman Doctrine, and now the Obama Doctrine. 

Back on May 11, 2013, this post:

Add China to the list of those "playing" in the Arctic. President Obama ceded the Arctic to everyone but the US as part of his "Make Others Great Again" policy.

The sum total of US government involvement in the Arctic: one Coast Guard icebreaker.

Now, an update. From zerohedge:

Looking at the current situation and the emerging trends, it would appear that the two Eurasian powers, Russia and China, will remain dominant in the Arctic at least during the coming decade.

While the United States is starting to get into the game, it is clearly very low on its list of priorities.

The fact that the US capabilities are being stretched very thin indeed and the sorry state of America’s finances mean that US Arctic capabilities, military or otherwise, will receive veritable crumbs in terms of funding.

Canada’s sovereignty is being gradually eroded by the United States and may lose its status as an Arctic player altogether in the next decade, particularly if icebreaker construction will have to compete for funding with the F-35 fighters which the United States is bent on imposing on Canada.

China remains the wild card. At the moment, it seems content to rely on Russia’s icebreaking capabilities in the region, however, should US-China competition in the region intensify, the PRC will become more proactive in exerting its influence in the region.

The Red Queen Has Not Fallen Off Her Treadmill -- Yet -- May 28, 2019

From Rigzone, why shale operators are now generating more cash with fewer rigs:

• petroleum engineers are really good at what they do
• oilfield services have little pricing power
• more than enough sand; much of it located "in-basin"

To the first bullet I would add that petroleum engineers are just part of the overall team. The roughnecks and truckers are critically important to the entire operation. Along with pad managers, landmen, corporate suits, state regulators, etc. etc.

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A Great Memorial Day Weekend

We all made it home safely.

Olivia's soccer team took the championship in their "division" in Colorado over the weekend. She was the high scorer. In one game she made all three goals and a penalty shot; her team won that game 4 - 0. Or maybe it was two goals and a penalty shot, 3 - 0. I will check later.

Arianna and I made it back safely from a great water polo weekend in San Antonio. San Antonio is an impressive city -- I can say I prefer it to Dallas-Ft Worth, but anywhere in Texas is fine.

One of many high points in San Antonio: discovered "Great Harvest Bread Company." Arianna and I both wished there was a "Great Harvest" in our area. It turns out there is! In Southlake.

I dropped the rental car off this morning, walked to McDonald's. It was a beautiful, cool, overcast morning. Later May will be pick me up.

Then Memorial Day barbecue, one of the best barbecues in a long time. Salmon and hot dogs. The salmon turned out perfectly. Incredibly moist. Teriyaki marinade. Sixteen minutes in aluminum foil over hot coals; open aluminum foil for last five minutes.

At Sophia's house about a mile down the road from our little apartment complex hovel. Waiting for the coals.

Ten Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Long Weekend -- Most Will Be DUCs -- May 28, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list this long weekend -- Tuesday, May 28, 2019: 89 for the month; 183 for the quarter --
35738, conf, Newfield, Skipjack 149-98-11-2-12H, 
35457, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HWL,
34043, conf, Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P., Harstad 44-9-2H, 
30486, conf, BR, Merton 14-10MBH, 

Monday, May 27, 2019:
35296, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 2635HZ, 
30487, conf, BR, Merton 14-10TFH ULW,

• the Merton wells are tracked here; 

Sunday, May 26, 2019:
35361, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-6, 

Saturday, May 25, 2019:
35298, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HD, 
35297, conf, WPX, Minot Grady 26-35HZ, 
34906, conf, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-9,

Active rigs:

$59.08	5/28/2019	05/28/2018	05/28/2017	05/28/2016	05/28/2015
Active Rigs	65	65	50	29	83

RBN Energy: Permian gas market searches for signs of improvement.

There’s never a dull moment in the Permian gas market these days, as prices at the major trading hubs remain extremely volatile, fueled by insufficient natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity. After prices tumbled to fresh lows in late April, with the Waha hub trading as much as $9/MMBtu below zero, the market appeared to regain its footing somewhat in early May as production curtailments lifted prices above zero. However, that reprieve was short-lived; prices last week again fell into negative territory heading into Memorial Day weekend. That said, the possibility of new takeaway capacity materializing in the weeks ahead, earlier than expected, has renewed hope among some market participants that the Permian gas price woes will soon be a thing of the past. How likely is that really, and will it be enough to equalize the beleaguered market? Today, we look at potential near-term developments that could support Permian gas prices.

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End-Of-Year Art Projects

Middle Schooler -- Olivia, 13 y/o

Final exam: decorate a tile.

Group project: a mural.