Thursday, July 20, 2023

Inflation, The Market, The Bakken-- July 20, 2023

Locator: 45174B.

He’s reading the blog.

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Bidenomics

Two things.

One, in the old days, rule of thumb, Dow : S&P ratio = 10:1.

Lately, NASDAQ and S&P have been tracking. Today, almost exactly 10:1 -- NASDAQ : S&P.

Second, first time since 2017, Dow notched a nine-day rally.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $76.55.

Rigs: 39.

Four new permits, #40056 - #40059, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Catwalk (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four Brakken FIU wells, SENW 7-153-100, 
      • to be sited between 1861 FNL and 1993 FNL and between 1649 FWL  and 1677 FWL

One permit renewed:

  • 35228, Liberty Resources, Holmen E..., Gros Ventre, Burke County;

Four permits canceled:

  • CLR: four Putnam permits, Williams County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37948, 1,344, CLR, Brangus FIU 11-11H,
  • 37951, 1,486, CLR, Brangus Federal 8-11H,
  • 37953, 1,475, CLR, Brangus Federal 6-11H,
  • 39010, 1,460, CLR, Rhoda 7-28H,
  • 38448, 2,119, MRO, Rustad 44-9H,
  • 35464, 1,297, Oasis,MHA 1-27H-150-92,

TSLA, Musk, NVDA, AI — July 20, 2023

Locator: 45173TECH.

The AI story is huge.

Today: link here.

Earlier: link here.

Tag: TSLA, Musk, NVDA, AI.

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So Many Inconsistencies, My Head Is Ready To Explode

I-5 EV Charging Corridor -- July 20, 2023

Locator: 45172EVS.

Link here.

Somewhat old news, but necessary for the archhives.

Daimler Trucks apparently has partnered with "someone" for the I-5 (California) charging corridor. It may be Volvo. The Daimler corridor build-out was also said to begin in 2023.

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Impromptu Picnic
July 17, 2023

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- WTI Can't Hold Above $75 -- July 20, 2023

Locator: 45172B. 

WTI: $74.80.

Friday, July 21, 2023: 79 for the month; 187 for the quarter, 442 for the year
39357, conf, CRL, Vance 6-14H,
38685, conf, Hess, GO-Ron Viall-156-98-2513H-2,
35020, conf, BR, Lillibridge 1A MBH,

Thursday, July 20, 2023: 76 for the month; 184 for the quarter, 439 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Enterprise's NGL transportation, storage, fractionation and export machine, part 4. Archived.

Less than a handful of U.S. midstream companies own and operate extensive NGL networks that do it all: extract mixed NGLs from associated gas at their processing plants, transport that “Y-grade” to their underground salt-cavern storage facilities in Mont Belvieu, fractionate mixed NGLs into so-called “purity products” at their fractionators, then pipe that ethane, LPG and other products either to domestic end-users or to company-owned export docks. Enterprise Products Partners is a member of that select group and, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, its NGL network — which stretches from Appalachia to the Permian to the Rockies — is the most extensive.

As we said in Part 1 of this series, the rise in U.S. NGL production in the early years of the Shale Era was accompanied by a massive build-out of the infrastructure required to take NGLs from the wellhead to the consumers of ethane, propane and other NGL purity products. While we have written countless blogs about the bits and pieces of infrastructure development, what we haven’t done, at least until now, is discuss in holistic terms the NGL networks that a select few large midstream companies have come to own and operate. We started our review with Energy Transfer, which owns NGL networks in Texas and (as we discussed in Part 2) the Northeast as well.

In Part 3, we shifted our focus to Targa Resources, which, in addition to being a major gas gatherer and processor in the Permian and a number of other production areas, owns the Grand Prix NGL pipeline system and is one of the biggest players in Mont Belvieu, the fractionation hub east of Houston. Targa also owns and operates a huge LPG export terminal along the Houston Ship Channel at Galena Park.

The SPR -- Updating Continues -- July 20, 2023

Locator: 45152SPR.

Updates

July 20, 2023: she’s reading the blog.

Original Post

SPR: much ado about nothing.

This has been discussed before but not in depth.

The SPR issue -- OMG -- it took decades to fill, the Biden administration drained it in days and now it will take decades to fill.

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Data Points

Demand:

  • US crude oil demand: max to date -- about 21 million bopd -- and that's on a good day.
  • US crude oil demand, lowest point during Covid-19 lock down, link here:
    • approximately 14 million bopd, January - March, 2021; 
    • if that's the average, maybe down to as much as 13 million bopd
    • why this number is important: that's how fast "we" can drop gasoline demand voluntarily if necessary.

US crude oil production:

  • 13 million bopd

US crude oil in storage:

  • crude oil in the SPR in 1H2023: 350 million bbls.
  • crude oil in commercial storage in 1H2023: 460 million bbls; link here.

Narrative

  • supply: during Covid-19, which was a voluntary lock down for the most part, demand dropped to less than 14 million bopd
  • demand: US production under a "unhelpful" administration and with WTI unable to sustain a price greater than $75 is producing about 13 million bopd
  • net: at worse, just using those two data points, the net delta for oil demand / oil supply: a shortage of one million bopd
    • commercial crude oil: 460 days
    • SPR: 350 days
    • total: 810 days

US crude oil production with a helpful administration, $100-oil, and/or a geo-political emergency:

  • minimum: 16 million bopd; link here.
  • my hunch: max production could trend toward 20 million bopd within 365 days under "max-case" scenario.

So, where's the choke point?

  • upstream
  • midstream
  • downstream (out-the-door)
  • downstream (last mile)

Other comments

  • some say selling oil from the SPR was done for financial reasons (deficit, debt, budget imbalance, additional Congressional spending, whatever)
  • this is the story as being reported by Reuters, June 30, 2023, link here
    • US to buy 3.2 million bbls of oil from four companies to continue refilling the SPR
    • bought at an average price of $72 / bbl
    • originally sold at $95 / bbl
    • paper profit: $23 / bbl = $74 million
    • fiscal year spend, 2023: $4.81 trillion
      • = 13,178,082,192 = $13 billion / day
      • $74 million / $13 billion = 0.0569 = 5.75% on a daily basis.
    • the entire SPR at a $25 / bbl paper profit: $8.75 billion
    • the entire SPR at a $25 / bbl paper profit = $8.75 billion = 1.8% of the total US budget

At one time I might have argued the same point. If I did, I was wrong.

The real reason to release crude oil from the SPRR was a political decision as noted by Reuters and had nothing do with the deficit. The funny thing: American CPAs are calculating the paper loss and profit. The average American doesn't care.

The average American cares not what the US deficit and no one knows what the true US deficit is at any one moment in time. But sixty percent of Americans know what they pay for gasoline on any given day.

To recap:

  • way more oil in storage than we need; SPR is irrelevant (don't take that out of context)
  • releasing oil from thhe SPR was a political decision to warn OPEC about the cartel's attempt to raise oil prices (and hence gasoline prices just before the mid-term elections)

But there's more.

Am I being too sanguine?

No, the "new" SPR is shale, the unconventional oil.

To be continued.

Summer: Day 54 — July 20, 2023

Locator: 45171MISC. 

Dow up 160 points at the open. [Later: up over 200 points.]

Tech down.

WTI up; over $76.

Murban crude at $80.92.

US crude oil supply in days: 27.9 (unchanged). No shortage. Chokepoint: refiners, regulations, recession.

Start to see small sector rotation. Benzinga. OXY, CVX, COP.

CHIPS: how Samsung and Texas Instruments made Texas the hub of US chip manufacturing. Link here.

JNJ earnings out. Nice.

Lithium: Arkansas. Magnolia. Smackover. Texas to Florida.

Big story today: Dubai. Later.

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More Supercomputers

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Chips

Texas. See link above.

Austin. Sherman.

Biden's $52 billion CHIPS and Science Act, 2020.

Since then: 50 new semiconductor projects have been announced; $210 billion.

  • Texas cut: $61 billion; six projects to create more than 8,000 jobs.
  • June, 2023: Texas incentives -- $4.1 billion
  • Samsung, TI, Infineon, GlobalWafers, NXP, X-FAB, Applied Materials -- ramping up
  • Apple, Amazon -- greenfield projects

Much more at the link

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Preferred Oils

From November 11, 2020:

At oilprice, the Murban price has a one-day delay. Currently Murban is priced at $42.89, up $2.11, right in line WTI yesterday. See Murban at wiki. Almost identical to WTI, but not as light as Bakken. 

  • Bakken: 36° to 44° (link here)
  • Murban: 40.2°
  • WTI: 39.6°
  • Brent blend: 38.3°
  • Light Louisiana Sweet: 35.6°
  • Saudi Arabia light: 34°

Remember: we now have WTI Midland. See RBN Energy. Archived.