Thursday, June 18, 2020

Off For The Night -- June 18, 2020

It was another incredible day -- way too much stuff happening to keep up.

Good luck to all.

I'm outta here but will be back sometime tomorrow.

US days of supply of crude oil: 40.4 days, third week in a row that the number has declined and is down from a record (?) 42.0 days this same week one month ago. Woo-hoo. Link here.

For newbies, a more "reasonable" number would be 21 days of supply.

By the way, if I remember, the first post tomorrow: rigs don’t matter. LOL.
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NDIC Scout Tickets Seem To Be Back In Order -- June 18, 2020

... and it appears all the wells that were to have been reported this week, have now been reported by the NDIC. Scout tickets are up to date.

The wells that were yet to be reported were at this post.

I'll update that data later tonight or early tomorrow morning

Fantastic.

ALL IS RIGHT WITH THE WORLD!!

NDIC continues to do a great job.
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Closer Look At The Incredible MRO Nokelby USA Well -- The MRO 2A-D-JP-N Pad -- June 18, 2020

Memo to self: send note to Art Berman. 

The well:
  • 36847, drl/A, MRO, Nokelby USA 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 174K 4/20; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203040195402152212754880052446
BAKKEN3-20202959964601143698363138059639
BAKKEN2-20202674064734897446469761065466

The five wells on that pad:
  • 36844, see production below; Akko USA,
  • 36845, see production below; Aslak USA,
  • 17966, see below; Jerry Pennington USA,
  • 36846, see production below; Donaason USA,
  • 36847, see production below; Nokelby USA
  • 17966, 358, MRO, Jerry Pennington US 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t6/09; cum 436K 4/20; offline 9/19; back on line 3/20; huge jump in production 7/14;
  • 36844:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203032920330111891844745042758
BAKKEN3-20203159766596874264571387067879
BAKKEN2-20202844239447453674745776043195
BAKKEN1-20202051248503985458553043050032
  • 36845:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203025533254443475330382028860
BAKKEN3-20203123658236943952927463026075
BAKKEN2-20202726255264774871426886025356
BAKKEN1-20201625668252428687524423022922
  • 36846:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203031476313772899038175036291
BAKKEN3-20203130784308474122836362034553
BAKKEN2-20202836229361507269734802032697
BAKKEN1-202061217311971357661068609974

Five wells to the west:
  • 34600,
  • 34601,
  • 34599,
  • 34602,
  • 34598,
Coming in from the north:
  • 35424,
  • 20530, IA/1,792, MRO, Ella USA 11-16H, Reunion Bay, t10/11; cum 376K 12/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20;
  • 36798,


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Whiting With Three New Permits; MRO Reports A DUC With 174K In Less Than 3 Months -- June 18, 2020

Active rigs:


$39.046/18/202006/18/201906/18/201806/18/201706/18/2016
Active Rigs1262645728

Three new permits, #37651 - #37653, inclusive --
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Foreman Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for three Link 44 wells in SESE 10-150-102, Foreman Butte, all 370' FSL and all about 1100' FEL
Four wells on the Enerplus "Wild Kingdom" pad re-surveyed; very minor changes in siting:
  • 36276, Lemur,
  • 36277, Gazelle,
  • 36279, Aardwolf, 
  • 36280, Meerkat,
  • 36282, Warthog, 
  • 36283, Zebara 
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36847, drl/A, MRO, Nokelby USA 34-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 174K 4/20; see production data below the fold; see this post;
  • 35034, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, t--; cum 52K 4/20; see production data below the fold;
  • 35032, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9G, Heart Butte, t--; cum 40K 4/20; see production data below the fold;
 **********************************
Production Profile For DUCs Reported Above
  • 35032:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030589459183260641403984136
BAKKEN3-2020316762680838958459345730
BAKKEN2-2020298329826638220526952450
BAKKEN1-2020265000511524002288916371232
BAKKEN12-201928140331377949903724257431468
BAKKEN11-2019001830000
BAKKEN10-2019244926630623790379
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
  • 35034:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202028776878243014552785079173
BAKKEN3-2020319950996138626671466850
BAKKEN2-2020299905983735528629062610
BAKKEN1-2020226243632821072386121871647
BAKKEN12-201931142421405642545756960021534
BAKKEN11-20194295533528205124512380
BAKKEN10-20193115368434315730573
BAKKEN5-20190000000
  • 36847, 74K over 26 days extrapolates to 85,458 bbls over a 30-day month:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203040195402152212754880052446
BAKKEN3-20202959964601143698363138059639
BAKKEN2-20202674064734897446469761065466

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California Reminder: If You Own An Old Truck, You Will Need To Replace That Engine This Year To Get It Registered -- June 18, 2020

The new regulations, passed back in 2018, take effect this year, 2020.

To be clear, we're only talking "commercial carriers" and heavy trucks, trucks weighing more than 26,000 pounds:

Link here.
For older vehicles, CARB says they must be either replaced with a 2011 or newer vehicle or repowered with a 2010 or newer engine.
Under these regulations, truckers must meet the following compliance schedule for vehicles weighing more than 26,000 pounds:
  • 2000 and older trucks must comply by Jan. 1, 2020
  • 2001-2005 must comply by Jan. 1, 2021
  • 2006-2007 must comply by Jan. 1, 2022
  • 2008-2010 must comply by Jan. 1, 2023
CARB adds, however, that the Truck and Bus Regulation is already in effect, and the Board can place a DMV regulation block on vehicles now, before the final compliance dates, if they don’t meet current air quality regulations. The state of California is enforcing all diesel regulations in preparation for 2020, CARB says.
Vehicles weighing between 14,000 pounds and 26,000 pounds are also subject to the regulations, and must meet the following compliance schedule:
  • 2004 and older must comply by Jan. 1, 2020
  • 2005-2007 must comply by Jan. 1, 2021
  • 2008-2010 must comply by Jan. 1, 2023
Don't worry: SUVs and even the Ford F-550 are well below these limits. 

And I believe this only affects "domiciled," registered vehicles in California. I assume trucks coming up from Mexico are exempt. But I don't know.
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Fast And Furious -- Tesla Sales Plunge; Swedish Deaths Surge -- June 18, 2020

News stories that deserve another look. Links below the fold.
  • Tesla registrations crash in California; forget the hype, the numbers are amazing shocking;
  • Tucker Carlson eclipses the competition; Rachel Maddow making a comeback;
  • Sweden: "herd immunity is surprisingly slow";
  • Oxford: "no scientific evidence that social distancing works"
  • Kroger's sales surge 1Q20
  • jobless report in line with expectations
  • Ron Paul: Texas is doing just fine, thank you
****************************************
The Links, The Stories

Tesla, link here. Also linked at WSJ.
  • 15 million automobile registrations in California
  • Tesla registrations in California (new):
    • April, 2020: 6,260; 16% decrease y/y;
    • May, 2020: 1,447; a 70% decrease y/y;
  • EV sales in California:
    • 2017: 95,000
    • 2018: 153,000
    • 153,000 / 12 = 12,750 EV registrations each month back in 2018 in California
  • in May, 2020, California: 1,447 Tesla registrations

Tucker Carlson: link here.

Sweden: incredibly good interactive graphic at this link. You can compare the countries you want to compare. Unfortunately still not "per capita" data which makes the data somewhat meaningless, and completely meaningless when comparing countries with vastly different populations. Article here.

Social distancing doesn’t work: link here. Of course, it doesn't. If masks worked and staying six feet from folks worked, we would have nothing to fear from polio, smallpox, or pneumonic plague.

Kroger: expects to top 2020 guidance; posts almost 60% growth in 1Q20 profit -- Americans stockpiled enough toilet paper, hand sanitizer, disinfectant to last through 2040. Link here.

Jobless numbers, link here:
  • prior: 1.542 million
  • revised: 1.566 million
  • forecast consensus: 1.220K
  • actual: 1.508 million
Texas: Ron Paul's weekly column.

************************************
Sweden

Any doubt the Swedish Covid-19 meme is a myth?

Link here.


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Just Like That, NDIC Quit Reporting -- June 16, 2020

Supply overhang not going away any time soon -- Bloomberg.
Fuel demand may be staging a gradual comeback in the world’s biggest economy, but that doesn’t mean the huge supply glut is going away anytime soon.
Gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration, reflecting a slight pick-up in demand during the summer driving season with coronavirus-led lockdowns easing in some parts of the U.S. Stubbornly high crude inventories still threaten to put a floor under crude’s rally from historic lows in April.
From Moscow Mitch:


And the Saudis are "fine" with $30-oil.

From a reader:
As expected. A lot of the contango oil being delivered to the gulf coast. Domestic production down by 2 million barrels a day in the past 10 weeks, pretty much a linear drop week to week, reflecting the combination of shale well depletion and rig count drop of nearly 80%.
Good information source is this link.https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php#menu
Gasoline demand, link here. This is a great graph today. Exactly what I "predicted" a week ago. Woo-hoo. Attaboy.That and 69 cents will get you a copy of senior coffee at McDonald's.


**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$38.286/18/202006/18/201906/18/201806/18/201706/18/2016
Active Rigs1262645728

Wells yet to report:

Thursday, June 18, 2020: 43 for the month; 188 for the quarter, 415 for the year:
  • 36877, drl/TASC, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 8TFH, Alger, t--; cum --;
  • 35667, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 3TFH, Poe, t--; cum 81K 4/20; nice well;
Wednesday, June 17, 2020: 41 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 413 for the year:
  • 36234, A, Whiting, Lidseth 11-1H, Sanish, t--; cum 75K 4/20;
  • 36074, drl/drl, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29MBH, St Demetrius, t--; cum --;
Tuesday, June 16, 2020: 39 for the month; 184 for the quarter, 411 for the year:
  • 37214, drl/drl, CLR, Burian 3-27H1, St Demetrius, t--; cum --;
  • 36878, drl/TASC, Equinor, Domaskin 40-31 4TFH, Alger, t--; cum --;
  • 36075, drl/A, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-29TFH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --;
Monday, June 15, 2020: 36 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 408 for the year:
  • 36879, drl/TASC, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 XE 1TFH, Alger, t--; cum --;
  • 36076, drl/A, BR, CCU Zephyr 14-29MBH, Corral Creek, t--; cum --;
Sunday, June 14, 2020: 34 for the month; 179 for the quarter, 406 for the year:
  • None.
Saturday, June 13, 2020: 34 for the month; 179 for the quarter, 406 for the year:
  • 37193, drl/drl, CLR, Wiley 14-25HSL, Pershing, t--; cum --; 
  • 35959, SI/NC, Whiting, Arndt 14-5-2XH, Sanish, t--; cum 96K 4/20; a nice well;
RBN Energy: Ingleside's quick rise to crude exports prominence, part 8. Archived.
Since last summer, the Corpus Christi area has emerged as the U.S.’s leading crude export venue. In the first five and a half months of 2020, it accounted for an astounding 45% of the barrels being shipped abroad — astounding because in the same period last year, the Corpus area held less than a 20% share. What is sometimes forgotten, though, is that little Ingleside, TX, located across Corpus Christi Bay from Corpus proper, is the area’s crude-export leader, with the Moda Midstream and Flint Hills Resources terminals responsible for just over half of Greater Corpus’s total export volumes. And, with the new South Texas Gateway Terminal nearing completion, Ingleside’s role will only increase in the coming months. Today, we conclude a series on Gulf Coast export terminals with a look at what has been going on in Ingleside.
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Vera Lynn Dead At 103 -- June 18, 2020

Vera Lynn dead at 103.

Vera Lynn, Pink Floyd

Six weeks ago, ahead of the 75th anniversary of VE Day and during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, Dame Vera said simple acts of bravery and sacrifice still define our nation.

A week later, she became the oldest artist to get a top 40 album in the UK, beating her own record when her greatest hits album re-entered the charts at number 30.

From November 7, 2009.

"Alexa, play Vera Lynn."
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