Locator: 44684ROYALS.
Thursday, May 18, 2023
EVs And Legacy Auto Manufacturers -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44683EVS.
They must be reading the blog. LOL.
We discussed this before.
'Nuf said.
Also, May 3, 2023.
Seven New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44682B.
Active rigs: 34.
WTI: $71.91.
Natural gas: $2.594.
Permitted for recompletion:
- 23676, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94, Murphy Creek, Dunn County
- open hole; stimulated 1/27/2013 -- 21 stimulation stages; 53,377 bbls; 1,290,363 lbs proppant;
Seven new permits, #39904 - #39910, inclusive:
- Operators: Oasis (6); Enerplus
- Fields: Buford (Williams); Painted Woods (Williams); South Fork (Dunn)
- Comments:
- Oasis has permits for three Andrews Federal and three George Federal wells, NENW 24-153-104;
- to be sited between 381 FNL and 721 FNL and between 2179 FWL and 2142 FWL;
- Enerplus has a permit for a Spoiler well, lot 4, section 4-148-93;
- to be sited 685 FNL and 639 FWLL;
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- CLR (6): three Dennis FIU and three Flint Chips FIU, all in Dunn County; all nice wells;
- XTO (3): three Allie wells; no IP test available for any of them.
Five permits renewed:
- Enerplus (3): a Yttrium, a Beryllium, a Niobium, all in Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
- Foundation Energy (2): two Roosevelt Federal permits, Roosevelt (Billings County)
The "Fed Rate" -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44680ECON.
Headlines that the Fed could still raise rates one or two more times this summer.
The "jobless rate" plummeted last week. All things being equal: the Fed needs to raise rates based on that data point, at least from the Fed's / JPow's point of view.
Warren Buffett says he pays no attention to the "Fed rate." He said that most recently at the 2023 annual meeting.
If so, this is why:
In round numbers "we're" at 5%. With 25-bp increases each time, it would take ten more 25-bp hikes to get to 7.50%. [Yes, I know: that sentence has a redundancy, but .... ].
An alien from outer space would suggest that the jagged line going back to 7.5% this year would simply be expected, background white noise. This doesn't seem to be rocket science, even though the alien from outer space probably understands rocket science.
The alien might ask about the "12-year era of 'free money.'"
***************************
About That Jobless Rate
The "jobless rate" plummeted last week.
Entirely unexpected.
Right, wrong, or indifferent, it's this data that is part of the information on which the Fed makes decisions.
Does One Really Think The Biden Administration Will Refill The SPR With Sour Oil To Any Meaningful Degree? May 18, 2023
Locator: 44679SPR.
Quick: why sour oil? What's it good for? A rhetorical question, please don't reply. And why is there a global shortage? By the way, this is what the Keystone XL was all about. But, oh well.
Putin's War -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44678UKR.
Comment: the breadth and depth the US military can throw at Russia is absolutely insane. BRAC resulted in a loss of many overseas bases, but fortunately, not all was lost. Rota, Spain, comes to mind. Great memories.
Updates
11:46 a.m. CT: about the time the UK-based Rivet Joint returned home safely, a US Navy C-40 Clipper was arriving same area that RRR had been monitoring all day.
Original Note
Rivet Joint: link here.
Putin's war: most followed a/c over at FlightRadar24 right now:
These aircrews are racking up combat pay, hazardous duty pay, meritorious medals, flight hours, experience, TDY pay, by the bucketload. They earn every penny, every atta-boy. Putin has no idea -- or maybe he does -- how much the US is learning / gaining in this war. Priceless.
**************************
Positioning Himself
Putin's nightmare.
ESPN To Exit Cable Bundles? WSJ -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44678SW.
Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
Bob Iger to move ESPN to streaming universe? Duality during short term: cable + streaming. But eventually, streaming only?
If so, one more nail in the "cable" coffin.
Eventually, professional sports will slice and dice their offerings among various streaming outlets. Those with deep pockets and/or an interesting niche to fill (Pluto TV):
- Amazon
- Apple
- Google (YouTube)
- Pluto
Of those listed, YouTube could be the biggest surprise. YouTube could continue its move from short videos, to streaming three-hour sports events. "Everybody" already uses YouTube but not everyone pays.
Investing Notes -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44706BUDCENTRAL.
Locator: 44677BUD.
Updates
May 21, 2023: The WSJ has long front page article on Bud-Mulvaney -- link here.
This wasn’t the first time an Anheuser-Busch brand had supported transgender rights in a marketing effort: In 2021, Michelob Ultra featured transgender track star Cecé Telfer in an ad campaign supporting gender equality in sports. Last year, Bud Light Canada released a limited-edition can for pride month displaying pronouns such as she, he and they. “Celebrate everyone’s identity,” the can said.
But senior executives said they were caught off-guard by the Mulvaney promotion and the personalized beer can. AB InBev’s leaders were uncomfortable with a marketing initiative that thrust one of its biggest brands into the middle of a divisive political issue, according to people familiar with the matter. [Translation: CEO could be out.]
The company’s response made matters worse.
Anheuser-Busch stayed mostly silent for two weeks, then released a general statement about bringing people together, prompting criticism from all sides for both waiting too long to respond and also not taking a clear stand.
When the furor continued, the company placed Heinerscheid and her boss, Daniel Blake, on leave. Heinerscheid was replaced in the role of head marketer for Bud Light by a seasoned beer executive and Blake’s role was eliminated to give senior marketers closer oversight on brand decisions.
Heinerscheid and Blake remain on leave. Anheuser-Busch declined to comment on their future at the company, citing the executives’ privacy and safety.
Original Post
BUD: at our upscale grocer down the road from us, about 30 minutes by bike, the beer aisle doesn't seem to have any specials going into the weekend, except for one: Bud Lite, 12-can 16-ounce, normally sells for $21 is being sold for $13.99, a savings of $4.00 off each 16-ounce, 6-pack.
Not only does this story have legs, there has to be a huge concern how long this could last, and/or whether anything will reverse the debacle.
It would be interesting to see what the "internals" show. Something tells me "we" would be surprised.
Investing:
- NVDA: holy mackerel. A proxy for ChatGPT.
- TSM: also doing well. Think AAPL. Which is also having an incredible day.
- AMD: even better than TSM.
AAPL:
- kind of interesting; AAPL paid its dividend today; would have expected AAPL shares to reflect that and drop a bit in price; in fact, AAPL is up $2 / share today, up a bit over 1%.
Oil:
- struggling. Headline writers say it's due to risk of default
- House speaker says vote to raid debt limit could be as early as next week
- two thoughts:
- an early vote to let disgruntled conservatives kill the first bill and force a second vote; or,
- disgruntled conservatives are looking at Memorial Day vacation and their investment portfolio.
All About Margins, Moats, And Mojo -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44676INV.
All about margins, moats, and mojo.
Some have power, some have moats. Some have both.
Putin's War -- Rivet Joint -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44675UKR.
Updates
11:46 a.m. CT: about the time the UK-based Rivet Joint returned home safely, a US Navy C-40 clipper was arriving same area that RRR had been monitoring all day.
Original Note
Rivet Joint: link here.
Putin's war: most followed a/c over at FlightRadar24 right now:
These aircrews are racking up combat pay, hazardous duty pay, meritorious medals, flight hours, experience, TDY pay, by the bucketload. They earn every penny, every atta-boy. Putin has no idea -- or maybe he does -- how much the US is learning / gaining in this war. Priceless.
**************************
Positioning Himself
Putin's nightmare.
Highly Recommended Reading Today -- RBN Energy Blog On The US Grid, Transmission Challenges, TransWest Express -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44674RBN.
RBN Energy: TransWest Express shows challenges in building long-distance transmission, part 2. Archived.
At the time it was proposed way back in 2005, the TransWest Express Transmission Project seemed like a straightforward idea — bring renewable energy from Wyoming, then (and now) one of the country’s biggest producers of wind power, to help meet increasing customer demand for electricity in the Desert Southwest. And enabling renewable energy to get to market would seem to align with political trade winds. But while the project’s goals couldn’t have been clearer, its 18-year path to final approval illustrates the numerous hurdles faced by long-distance energy projects and the need for change if progress is to me made toward energy goals. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at TransWest’s long road to approval, the difficulties in getting new energy infrastructure built and the long-term repercussions of those delays, and some permitting-reform proposals that might shorten project timelines.
Permitting for infrastructure projects — from oil and gas pipelines to transmission lines and offshore wind farms — is a well-known problem with many contributing factors but no easy solutions. Almost everyone acknowledges the benefit of having interested parties and stakeholders weigh in on major proposals to build or expand energy infrastructure, and credible regulations and appropriate safeguards are essential. Still, the reality is that the permitting process for some important projects can drag on for years and prevent others from ever becoming a reality. We looked in detail at Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), the current poster child for permitting challenges, which still faces an uncertain future even though the company says construction is more than 90% complete.
Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 18, 2023
Locator: 44673B.
First things first: highly recommended -- the RBN Energy blog today.
The Permian: based on lots and lots of very superficial research, the recent NOG news in the Permian, and the EIA chart below, suggests to me that the Permian is much bigger than "we" think. It is fortuitous and ironic that the play is located where it's located.
Putin's war: most followed a/c over at FlightRadar24 right now:
These aircrews are racking up combat pay, hazardous duty pay, meritorious medals, flight hours, experience, TDY pay, by the bucketload. They earn every penny, every atta-boy. Putin has no idea -- or maybe he does -- how much the US is learning / gaining in this war. Priceless.
*************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 34.
Peter Zeihan newsletter.
WTI: $72.74.
Natural gas: $2.388.
Friday, May 19, 2023: 30 for the month; 82 for the quarter, 337 for the year
37853, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 7-13-12TFH,
39286, conf, CLR, Smouse 8-28H,
39216, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-4H
39182, conf, Ragnar, Danneskjold 1-21H,
38628, conf, Whiting, Kannianen Federal 11-4HU,
RBN Energy: TransWest Express shows challenges in building long-distance transmission, part 2. Archived.
At the time it was proposed way back in 2005, the TransWest Express Transmission Project seemed like a straightforward idea — bring renewable energy from Wyoming, then (and now) one of the country’s biggest producers of wind power, to help meet increasing customer demand for electricity in the Desert Southwest. And enabling renewable energy to get to market would seem to align with political trade winds. But while the project’s goals couldn’t have been clearer, its 18-year path to final approval illustrates the numerous hurdles faced by long-distance energy projects and the need for change if progress is to me made toward energy goals. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at TransWest’s long road to approval, the difficulties in getting new energy infrastructure built and the long-term repercussions of those delays, and some permitting-reform proposals that might shorten project timelines.
Permitting for infrastructure projects — from oil and gas pipelines to transmission lines and offshore wind farms — is a well-known problem with many contributing factors but no easy solutions. Almost everyone acknowledges the benefit of having interested parties and stakeholders weigh in on major proposals to build or expand energy infrastructure, and credible regulations and appropriate safeguards are essential. Still, the reality is that the permitting process for some important projects can drag on for years and prevent others from ever becoming a reality. We looked in detail at Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), the current poster child for permitting challenges, which still faces an uncertain future even though the company says construction is more than 90% complete.
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