Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves — Data — May, 2023

Locator: 44819RUSSIA. 

Link here.

Good Luck To All — June 27, 2023

Locator: 44818MUSIC.

Apple Update -- IN PROGRESS -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 44817AAPL.

Apple is tracked here.

A lot of this will be repetitious.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Financial Express: massive upgrades coming for Apple's major lines of products.

AAPL did hit a new high today. I assume it's an all-time high, but I don't know. Link here.

Saving the best for last. 

We'll discuss this later. There's a lot in this story.

Tomorrow These Stories Will Be Old News; Nothing About The Bakken -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 44816INV.

Nothing about the Bakken and not much about energy in general.

API data: link here.

• crude oil:
• forecast: a net draw of 1.5 million bbls
• actual: a net draw of 2.4 million bbls
• Cushing: up 1.45 million bbls
• and on that news, WTI slumps; closes below $67
• distillates up a bit
• EIA numbers tomorrow

• SuicideBlonde: second-half tightness that "everyone" predicted begins in 3...2...1...

Ohio and investors taken for a RIDE:

• I thought Lordstown would simply file and reorganize, but it sounds like RIDE has thrown in the towel;
• links everywhere;
• Yahoo!Finance;
• EVs are tracked here.
  

TSM:

• how dominant is TSM?

• these are always fun and easy to explain:

Americans are optimistic! Consumer confidence at 17-month high. How long has Mr Biden been president. I've lost that bubble. Link here.

From the linked article: stay-flation.

Americans expect prices to rise 6% over the next 12 months, according to the survey. That is the lowest inflation expectations reading in more than two years but still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Magic mushrooms, link here. We've talked about this before. This is well-known; finally being reported by The WSJ.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

EU Gas Markets Descend Into Chaos (Remember: The Netherlands Officially Closing Groningen -- Traders Having A Field Day) -- Meanwhile The Texas Grid Holds -- In The Bakken, Seven DUCs Completed; Three New Permits -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45811B.

Texas to NE ISO: thank you for all your thoughts and prayers; your prayers got "us" through another typical Texas day. The global warming gods were appeased.

ERCOT:

• our apartment complex has two pools; I generally use the larger pool; today, the smaller pool; more shade;
• it's so hot, no one apparently even wants to swim; not me; I've been out here "all afternoon";
• 100°F right now, 6:07 p.m. CT; I don't know what the high was;
• unaware of any grid failures, but I don't listen to / watch local news
• wow, ERCOT supply / demand not even close to having problems; just checked;
• 8,000 MW reserves yet in play
• I won't look at the price; but "everybody" only cares whether the grid "holds."
  
• 86°F is the highest it gets in the apartment; I won't turn on the a/c if I can swim to keep me cool;

Headline: European gas markets descend into chaos. I didn't click on the clickbait. It's over at oilprice. Let me guess: Groningen and Norway. [Later: Norway back in the game despite promises last year to go green. My hunch: behind closed doors, the EU begged Norway to bail them out.]

**********************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: ouch -- $67.93.

Three new permits, #40003 - #40005, inclusive:

• Operator: Neptune Operating (I wonder who they are "working for"?)
• Field: Elk (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Neptune has permits for three Wahlstrom wells, lot 1 section 3-151-102; 
• to be sited 303 FNL and between 634 FEL and 700 FEL

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39143, 307, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-6H-LL, Dunn County;
• 39145, 113, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-2H, Dunn County;
• 39147, 278, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-41-6H, Dunn County,
• 38501, 2,885, MRO, Audreey 34-10H, Dunn County;
• 39129, 204, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 5-31-30-159N-99W-MBH, Williams;
• 38168, 960, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 5-28H1, Williams,
• 38169, 1,134, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 6-28H1, Williams,

NDIC Hearing Dockets -- July, 2023

Locator: 45810B.

Link here. Won't load on Firefox. Use Safari or some other browser.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Thursday.
July 27, 2023
One case: a pipeline case.

Supplement.

Thursday.
July 27, 2023
Two continued cases.

Cases, not permits.

Thursday.
July 27, 2023
Seven pages.

The cases:

• 30246, Grayson Mill, Ragged Butte-Bakken and Alexander-Bakken, amend, i) bottom hole location; ii) bottom hole location; McKenzie
• 30247, CLR, Rattlesnake Point Field, open receptacle for produced water, Dunn County
• 30248, CLR, Rattlesnake Point Field, open receptacle for produced water, Dunn County
• 30249, Morgan E&P, Glade-Bakken and/or Saddle Butte-Bakken, amend, establish a 1280-acre unit; sections 21/28-142-98, four wells, Billings
• 30250, NDIC, Northeast Foothills-Madison, Scout Energy, terminate or reduce action; Burke
• 30251, XTO, commingling,
• 30252, XTO, commingling,
• 30253, XTO, commingling,
• 30254, XTO, commingling,
• 30255, XTO, commingling,
• 30256, XTO, commingling,
• 30257, XTO, commingling,
• 30258, XTO, commingling,
• 30259, Hunt Oil, commingling,
• 30260, Liberty Resources, commingling;
• 30261, KODA, SWD
• 30262, KODA, SWD
  

Wednesday.
July 26, 2023
Thirteen pages.

The cases:

• 30200, NDIC, Fulcrum Energy, to review the injectivity test, North Souris-Spearfish, filee #22064, Bottiineau County.
• 30201, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, amend, #39701, bottom hole location, sections 5/8-145-94, Dunn Couunty
• 30202, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 5/6/7/8-156-94; one well; Mountrail County
• 30203, Hess, Robinson-Lake, amend, establish an overlapping laydown 1280-acre unit; sections 2/3-154-93, one well; Mountrail;
• 30204, Hess, Ellsworth-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 3200-acre unit, E/2 of sections 10/15 and all of sections 11/12/13/14-149-100; one well; McKenzie
• 30205, Petro-Hunt, Little Knife, amend, establish two 1280-acre units; sections 5/8, and sections 17/20-144-98; four wells on each, Billings
• 30206, Oasis, Camp and/or Indian Hill-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping laydown 1920-acre units, sections 3/4/5, and sections 8/9/10-152-101, five wells on each, McKenzie County;
• 30207, Oasis, Elk-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping laydown 1600-acre units (see source); four wells on each, McKenzie County
• 30208, Oasis, Elk and/or Indian Hill-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units (see source); three wells on each, Williams, McKenzie
• 30209, Phoenix Operating, Smoky Butte/GreenLake-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit (see source), one well, Williams
• 30210, Phoenix Opertaing, Burg-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit (see source), five wells, Williams, Divide
• 30211, Phoenix Operating, Burg-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit (see source); five wells; Williams, Divide
• 30212, Phoenix Operating, Burg-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit (see source), five wells, Williams, Divide
• 30213, NDIC, Norton Frickey, confiscation of equipment, #7120, Whiskey Joe Field, Billings;
• 30214, NDIC, Norton Frickey, confiscation of equipment, #7145, Whiskey Joe Field, Billings;
• 30215, NDIC, Norton Frickey, confiscation of equipment, #7459, Whiskey Joe Field, Billings;
• 30216, NDIC, Norton Frickey, confiscation of equipment, #8214, Whiskey Joe Field, Billings;
• 30217, Kraken, pooling,
• 30218, Kraken, pooling,
• 30219, Kraken, pooling,
• 30220, Kraken, pooling,
• 30221, Kraken, pooling,
• 30222, Kraken, pooling,
• 30223, Kraken, pooling,
• 30224, Kraken, pooling,
• 30225, Kraken, pooling,
• 30226, Kraken, commingling, 
• 30227, Hess, pooling,
• 30228, Hess, pooling,
• 30229, Hess, pooling,
• 30230, Hess, pooling,
• 30231, Hess, Elk-Bakken, amend, six wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 18/18-151-102, McKenzic
• 30232, Oasis, pooling;
• 30233, Oasis, pooling;
• 30234, Oasis, pooling;
• 30235, Oasis, pooling;
• 30236, Oasis, pooling;
• 30237, Oasis, pooling;
• 30238, Ovintiv, commingling;
• 30239, Ovintiv, commingling;
• 30240, Neptune Operating, commingling,
• 30241, BR, commingling,
• 30242, Foundation Energy, pooling,
• 30243, Foundation Energy, pooling,
• 30244, Whiting, commingling,
• 30245, Challenger Point Energy, SWD
  

Monday
July 17, 2023
One case.

The case:

• 30199, CLR, open receptacle for storage of produced water, Little Knife, Dunn County.

And So It Goes -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45089ARCH.  

**********************************
The Book Page

The Story of Alice: Lewis Carroll and the Secret History of Wonderland, Robert Douglas-Fairhurst, c. 2015, 828DOU.

Notes.

It's Gonna Be Close -- 1.8% -- GDP -- First Half, 2023

Locator: 45088GDP. 

WTI: drops almost 2% after this data was posted. WTI now trading down $1.26, at $68.11.

• For investors, it appears:
• anticipation of GDP six months out --> drives WTI --> share price of major E&P companies.
• at close, WTI dropped 2.5% for the day, trading at $67.70 after hours despite bullish API data
• in line with my analysis, also —> GDP forecast drives WTI; tell me I’m crazy but WTI action says … recession.

GDPNow: this should be the last estimate for the 2Q23 GDP before Friday, June 20, 2023, when the government's official final reading of the US GDP for 1Q23 is released.

Link here.

2Q23, estimate:

I Love To Bake Bread -- But I Agree With This Guy From The New Yorker -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45087ARCH. 

Table for two, from The New Yorker:

The Suffolk Collection, link here. We had two of these at one time, when we were stationed in England. I loved them. Used them all the time. Our younger daughter has one of them, possibly both. I forget. Besides memories, perhaps one of the best things we brought back from England.

My solution:

• bake my own white bread when I really, really want to bake
• my closest friend while growing up in Williston "taught" me the pleasures of baking my own bread
• he also taught me the pleasure of biking everywhere
• but for special breads -- special bakeries and Central Market (HEB)

*************************
The Book Page

Book to read today. Just a bit. An overview as it were.

I don't like Russian literature. Have read very little, understand less. Maybe I'm missing something. Time to find out.

Lectures on Russian Literature: Cheekhov, Dostoevski, Gorki, Gorgol, Tolstoy, Turgenev, edited by Fredson Bowers, c. 1981.

Notes.

The writers:

• Nikolay Gogol: 1809 - 1852
• Ivan Turenev: 1818 - 1883
• Fyodor Dostoevski: 1821 - 1881
• Leo Tolstoy: 1828 - 1910
• Anton Chekhov: 1860 - 1904 
• Maxim Gorki: 1868 - 1936

From wiki:

The Hogarth Press is a book publishing imprint of Penguin Random House that was founded as an independent company in 1917 by British authors Leonard Woolf and Virginia Woolf. It was named after their house in Richmond (then in Surrey and now in London), in which they began hand-printing books as a hobby during the interwar period.

Hogarth originally published the works of many members of the Bloomsbury group, and was at the forefront of publishing works on psychoanalysis and translations of foreign, especially Russian, works.

In 1938, Virginia Woolf relinquished her interest in the business and it was then run as a partnership by Leonard Woolf and John Lehmann until 1946, when it became an associate company of Chatto & Windus

In 2011, Hogarth Press was relaunched as an imprint for contemporary fiction in a partnership between Chatto & Windus in the United Kingdom and Crown Publishing Group in the United States, which had both been acquired by Random House.

History

Printing was a hobby for the Woolfs, and it provided a diversion for Virginia when writing became too stressful.

The couple bought a handpress in 1917 for £19 (equivalent to about £1295 in 2018) and taught themselves how to use it. The press was set up in the dining room of Hogarth House, where the Woolfs lived, lending its name to the publishing company they founded

In July, 1917, they published their first text, a book with one story written by Leonard and the other written by Virginia.

Between 1917 and 1946 the Press published 527 titles.

It moved to Tavistock Square in 1924.

1917: what an interesting year to have published their first book.

• Russian civil war: 1917 - 1923.

See: rare books. 

Boris Pasternak: 1890 - 1960.

Reka Flessner: 1899 - 1990.

Investing -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45086ECON. 

Existing home sales: amazing, where you have to find this data! Link here.

• am I missing something? Or is this consistent with the recession we're already in? (asking for Charlie Munger).

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

I'm lovin' it.

WBA: crushed. On an up day for the market, drops 10%.

• earnings out
• loses 10%; drops $3.15; trading at $28.45.
• missed expectations for the first time since July, 2020
• slashes guidance
• it will be interesting to see if WBA cuts its generous dividend, now paying 6.6% 
• the next dividend will be declared on/about July 20, 2023
  

Tech:

• having a great day;
• TSM: currently up $1.33 and trading at $101.33, in after hours trading last night, spiked to $106 -- but then we all know what that was about; phenomenon previously discussed
• most surprising? AAPL is up over $2.00 / share; up over 1%; trading at $187.35; market cap: $2.947 trillion. The formula for determining a company's market cap does not include the company's "cash on hand." But I bet there's a "number" / definition / analyst's concept that "includes both, in one way or another. It certainly affects the "buyout" or merger of a publicly traded company.
  

Others:

• SWKS: hmmmm.
• MSFT: growth expected to surge.
• KMI: raises dividend (old news); not sure if previously posted.

MSFT: growth expected to surge.

SWKS:

• some weeks ago I posted eight tech stocks, seven of which I was building a long-term position;
• I forget: it could have been 6/7 vs 7/8 but doesn't matter
  
• had started the process about a year or so ago, I suppose -- I called them the beaten-down tech stocks
• only one of the eight I was avoiding
• SWKS was one of the seven I was accumulating
• earlier this month (after I had already started building my position; the three:

• MaxLinear
• Skyworks Solutions
• Intel

SWKS: from the linked article above --

• a high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductor innovator that connects people, places and things.
  

• the company has been a leading player in developing wireless connectivity solutions, which has enabled it to gain prominence in the era of digitization and the Internet of Things (IoT).
  

• GF Value for SWKS is $171.91. In fiscal Q2 2023, Skyworks Solutions recorded revenue of $1.153 billion and an operating income of $273.3 million on a GAAP basis. On a non-GAAP basis, income was $386.1 million.
  

• the company managed to maintain its profitability and generated solid cash flow. Skyworks has demonstrated market leadership through strategic partnerships with major companies, such as Samsung and Cisco. These partnerships enable new capabilities and solutions in smartphones and enterprise networking. 

The writer failed to mention the relationship between Apple and Skyworks.

Ford: cuts, again. Link here. Cutting salaried employee and contractors worldwide. Minimal information released. Suggests huge costs associated with EV division. Link here. Ford up eleven cents today.

Mohamed Is Reading The Blog -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45085ECON.

This is quite incredible.

Link here.

Mohamed says central governments will have to accept "higher inflation" as the "new normal." He doesn't posit a number, but it will be four percent. Trust me on that. Take it to the bank. 

Mohamed defines "stay-flation." Thank you so much. 

Stay-flation, as a three-legged economy tool, replaces "stagflation," a British economic term, no longer in play.

The screen shot:

On June 22, 2023, I posted the very same thoughts! Stay-flation:

• inflation goal reset to 4% -- not transitory, but long-term, if not a long-lasting goal
• a robust economy
• worries about unemployment / employment goes to the back burner

Recession?

• Germany is in recession.
• US: some analysts say US will follow; others say US will avoid recession.
• me? I'm agnostic. Don't care. 
  

From my June 22, 2023, blog that linked above:

What's easier to read?  Mohamed's rambling or the blog's bulleted data points? Rhetorical. Don't respond.

Sriracha And Duolingo Updates -- June 27, 2027

Locator: 45084MISC.

The great Sriracha shortage: 

Duolingo: I believe it's the #1 in this sector -- more folks studying Spanish on Duolingo than in American schools. It's free with ads; less than $100 ad-free. I forgot to post the day I hit the first 1000-day streak. With a dictionary at my side, I can probably read Spanish at the middle school level. Can speak it slowly at perhaps first or second grade level, but have a devil of a time understanding it. But that's my fault. I do not practice listening enough.

Stories We Will Be Talking About Today -- WTI Falls; WBA Crashes; One Well Coming Off Conffidential List -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45083MISC.

Right on cue, in early morning trading, at the open:

WBA: crushed. On an up day for the market, drops 10%.

• earnings out
• loses 10%; drops $3.15; trading at $28.45.
• missed expectations for the first time since July, 2020
• slashes guidance

Stories we'll be talking about today.

• Hurricanes: both Bret and Cindy were duds.
• The great Sriracha shortage: link here.
  
• LIV - PGA: details now emerge.
• Apple: posted; will discuss again, later.
• Tax the rich: not gonna happen; SCOTUS will rule.
  
• Wind:
  
• Copper:
• Ford cuts: again.
• Investing: link here for the items below --
  
• SWKS: hmmmm.
• MSFT: growth expected to surge.
• KMI: raises dividend (old news); not sure if previously posted.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.56.

Wednesday, June 28, 2023: 38 for the month; 146 for the quarter, 401 for the year
None.

Tuesday, June 27, 2023: 38 for the month; 146 for the quarter, 401 for the year
39305, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 10-6H,

RBN Energy: public non-op E&Ps eemeerge as new source of Permian consolidation funding.

The wave of Permian corporate consolidations has continued unabated as spring transitioned into summer with the public company purchases of two EnCap-funded Delaware Basin private operators: Forge Energy, which was purchased by Vital Energy for $540 million, and Novo Oil & Gas, which was purchased by Earthstone Energy for $1.5 billion. Although the theme hasn’t changed, the funding of the transactions includes an intriguing new element — Northern Oil & Gas, which primarily invests in non-operated minority interests, partially funded the acquisitions by agreeing to take 30% and 33% interests in the assets from buyers Vital Energy and Earthstone Energy, respectively. In today’s RBN blog, we review the emergence of three public non-op-focused E&Ps — Northern Oil & Gas, Granite Ridge Energy and Vitesse Energy — and their recent evolution from consolidators of asset packages to trusted partners of acquisition-focused operators.

First, some background. Non-operated oil and gas interests are ownership stakes in oil and gas leases that do not involve the day-to-day management of the wells. While most E&Ps have accumulated non-operated interests in the normal course of building their portfolios, many of these interests have typically been held by investors who want to participate in the profits from oil and gas wells without having to bear the responsibilities and costs associated with operating the lease. Non-op interest owners also have the right to decide to participate (or not) in any individual well proposed by the operator, which provides capital investment flexibility. The downside is that the operator decides whether to further develop the lease, establishes the timing of any development, and controls the costs of drilling, completing, and operating the wells. Profiting from non-op investment requires careful assessment of the quality of the acreage involved, the predictability of well results, and evaluation of the financial strength, investment strategy and operational expertise of the operator.

Apple: Top Story For The Day -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45082AAPL. 

Chips tracked here. 

Apple is tracked here.

Link here. 

Look how much information is packed in this short article.

**********************************
Transistor Count Updated Over At Wiki

The previous update, just three months ago:

March 10, 2023: update, link here.

NOW -- JUNE 27, 2023, same link, updated:

Note:
Intel has been added to the list after a long absence but it introduced a 10-nm chip (2023) when Appl had shipped products with their 5-nm chip, and then, a few months later, Apple announces it will ship the Mac Pro with the M3 chip this year (2023).

Pre-market: WTI Down $1.50 — June 27, 2023

Locator: 45081WTI.  

Right before July 4th five-day weekend.

Saudi Arabia Could Cut Crude Oil Exports To The US -- The News Had Absolutely No Effect On Price Of Oil -- Crying Wolf Too Many Times -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45080SAUDI.

I saw this headline a few days ago, but never clicked on the link or read the article, thinking it was a joke, but for some reason I was curious who wrote it. 

Written by Charles Kennedy so I have to take the article seriously.

A lot of good data points in this article and some good reasoning.

However, after scrolling through the blog, word search "Saudi," it certainly seems Saudi "cries wolf" a lot, threatening to cut back on oil production.

From May 4, 2019: this was a great graph -- one of the best ever, but I've never seen an update, unfortunately. 

There is now talk among some analysts that Saudi's production is maxing out at 9 million bopd.

Random Screenshot Of Liberty Resources Activity In Enget Lake -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45079B.

From the NDIC.

Enget Lake is on the northeast fringe of a sweet spot in the Bakken. The oil field is immediately east of East Tioga and immediately southwest of the field discovered by an MDU subsidiary years ago (if I recall correctly) that has not amounted to much, the Cottonwood oil field in Burke County.

Ten Little Monkeys Jumping On The Bed: One Fell Off And Broke His Head -- EVs -- RIDE Declares Bankruptcy -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45078EVS.

EVs are tracked here.

From yesterday, less than 24 hours ago:

Today, less than 24 hours later:

This is a huge story on so many levels.