Link here.
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21
Debbie Harry.
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Recession, Soft Landing, Reflation, Deflation, Stagflation, And All That Jazz -- Another Possibility -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46864ECON.
Quick! MTD, what is/was the second-best performing sector?
UNP had a pretty good day. Just saying.
Now, back to the blog.
This possibility -- the possibility raised by Kathy Jones and Carl Q below -- I call a "touch and go."
I don't want to get too far ahead of my headlights but this is getting exciting. "We" might be watching something in real time. One may want to mark one's calendar with an "X" on February 22, 2024 -- 02222024.
And, then, of course, there's one more piece of the puzzle -- what investment did Buffett make that was so important that the SEC agreed to keep it quiet?
So, I've been calling this outcome a "touch and go."
But I am 1000% with Kathy Jones and Carl Q on this one.
Folks that don't see this must not "understand" AI and/or its potential.
Late night:
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Capital One
This is a must-read article with regard to the Capital One - Discover deal. Bio:
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And Let's Not Forget Energy Today
From Liz Sonders (MTD - current month-to-date):
Chord To Merge With Enerplus --- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46863B.
Updates
May 28, 2024: update. Deal to close May 31, 2024.
Original Post
Chord - Enerplus Merger PowerPoint.
Timeline:
- February 9, 2024:
- Locator: 46774DEVON.
- Devon Energy offers to acquire Enerplus, including its Bakken assets -- NS Energy
- Reuters.
- Yahoo!Finance.
- 9:00 a.m., February 21, 2024: I added a large buy to my existing position of CHRD.
- 6:25 p.m. February 21, 2024: it's being reported that CHRD will merge with Enerplus.
- 6:26 p.m February 21, 2024: whoo-hoo! Opening a bottle of champagne.
- 6:27 p.m. February 21, 2024: two tickers --
Six New Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46862B.
Weekly API report:
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Back to the Bakken
Locator: 46862B. Note: the information below is from an earlier date. I'm not going to correct it. I'll simply update it later as a new post.
WTI:$78.07.
Active rigs: 40.
Six new permits, #40516 - #40523, inclusive:
- Operators: BR (3); Neptune Operating, Slawson, Zavanna
- Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Briar Creek (Williams); Big Bend (Mountrail); Epping (Williams)
- Comments:
- BR has permits for two Keene wells and one Franklin well, all SWSW 36-147-97;
- to be sited 589 FSL and between 272 FWL and 362 FWL;
- Neptune has a permit for a Foster well, lot 3, section 4-152-104;
- to be sited 441 FNL and 1855 FWL:
- Slawson has a. permit for a Fisherman well, NWNW 21-152-91;
- to be sited 1001 FNL and 560 FWL;
- Zavanna has a permit for a Collie well, SWSE 13-155-100,
- to be sited 859 FSL and 1645 FEL
One permit canceled:
- 38054, XTO, Wood 21X-25G, Williams County;
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 35211, 1,500, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5H, Dunn County;
- 35217, 1,977, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5F, Dunn County;
- 35218, 3,156, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5D, Dunn County;
- 35219, 714, XTO, Teddy Federal 12X-5HXE, Dunn County;
- 39698, 3,149, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB, Dunn County;
Venezuela Oil-Backed Bonds Collapse -- Charles Kennedy -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46861VENEZUELA.
A day after a New York court ruling that Venezuelan law would determine the validity of bonds issued by state-run PDVSA oil company, Bloomberg reports that bonds have “collapsed,” slumping on questions over their validity.
At stake is $2 billion in PDVSA bonds, and PDVSA notes dropped 17 cents following Tuesday’s ruling.
On Tuesday, the New York State Court of Appeals ruled on the matter after Venezuelan opposition, which controls the state-run oil company’s U.S. assets, said the bonds set to mature in 2020 were invalid because they had not been approved by Venezuela’s National Assembly. The New York Court of Appeals ruled that validity must be determined by local law in the place of issuance.
NVDA Surges After Hours; Up As Much As $45 After Hours; Up As Much As 6.6% After-Hours; A Beat But Not A Massive Beat -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46860TECH.
Updates
Later, 10:01 p.m. CT: trending over at twitter.
Original Post
First ticker change for NVDA as earnings are reported: after hours right now up $16! After earnings, down 4%; down $24. Now, ticker up $45 / share; up almost 7% after hours. Late: up $50; up 7.4%.
RIVN: a miss on the bottom line; a loss of $1.36 vs expectation of a loss of $1.32 / share; shares are down over 12% due to guidance. Guidance: expect to produce 57,000 vehicles in 2024; the street expected 66,000. In 2023, produced 57,000 vehicles. Link here.
LCID: a loss of $2.09 / share; misses on revenue; shares under pressure. Guidance: 9,000 vehicles this next year; this past year, a bit more than 9,000 vehicles. Ticker: not much change.
NVDA: below.
Reminder: during the dot-com boom / bust, it was CISCO that was the fastest moving ticker. All-time? Shares appreciated 60,500%.
This is why my comparisons have limited utility.
Breaking, one minute before the market closes -- "everything" turns green. Does someone know something the rest of us don't know? Just before the close:
In the closing hour:
WTI: up 1.17%; up 90 cents; trading at $77.94 at the close.
Nvidia is trading at an "ominous" $666.66."
I hope you all have dry powder, as they say. LOL. Either way, up or down, same advice.
Nvidia earnings after hours, link here:
Nvidia’s total revenue rose 265% from a year ago, based on strong sales for AI chips for servers, particularly the company’s “Hopper” chips like the H100, it said. Those sales are reported in the company’s Data Center business, which now comprises the majority of Nvidia’s revenue. Data center sales were up 409% to $18.40 billion.
- EPS: $5.15 beat vs expectation of $4.64 -- wow, huge, amazing
- all revenue: $22.1 billion vs 20.62 billion expectation
- data center revenue: $18.4 billion vs 17.0 billion expected -- climbed 38% q/q; despite China issues; incredible beat;
- guidance: even better numbers next quarter
- gross margins, guidance: 70% -- 1Q25 -- margins are "incredible" according to analyst; "it's impressive";
- overall: a "huge win" for Nvidia --
- amazing how the CNBC anchors presenters can keep up with all of this; many analysts and talking heads; many CNBC presenters -- all being coordinated by the producer -- I can only imagine all the chatter in the anchor's airpods; a shout-out to the CNBC anchors
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will
be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
Nvidia conference call, link here.
Late night:
Inflation Watch -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46859INFLATION.
One of my pet peeves is the exaggerated reporting with regard to the cost of food.
This is from the Kroger circular this week: bacon, soft drinks, and chips are all on sale this week for half-price. And "party-size" Lays potato chips are being sold for less than half price. And every week, it's something else.
I'll bike to Walmart in a few minutes and check out the price of eggs, which seems to be what the Wall Street Journal journalists seem most interested in. LOL. The NYC and DC folks see a dozen eggs priced at $3.50 a dozen. I'll come back later with the price at Walmart here in north Texas. My hunch? $1.89.
Later: wow, I was wrong! Eggs are back up in price. At Walmart the best I could do was $2.60 for a dozen but no shortage. But the price of eggs is a one-off. It has nothing to do with the price of groceries in general, except on the margin:
But, as usual, the price of eggs did not affect me today -- didn't buy any. We stock up when we find a sale and we still have plenty in the refrigerator. But I had bought them, I could have afforded the extra dollar per dozen with savings elsewhere -- see below. It all averages out.
But on the other hand, prices elsewhere are coming down. My soft drink staple is diet Coke, in the 500 ml 6-pack plastic packs. Recently I've seen a six-pack as high as $5.88 but generally a six-pack is running $4.98, but at Walmart the price has been rolled back to .... drum roll ... $3.98.
Another staple: tuna fish in those little cans. They generally run a bit over $2.00 these days, or maybe around $1.79. Today, four cans for $3.52, less than a buck a tin.
The interesting thing: my "groceries" were quite expensive today but in fact I had only a few food items. Most of my "groceries" were non-food items, including a ream of printer paper and some bug spray (very, very expensive).
The California Page -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46858CA.
The update, link here.
Because funding for the entire project remains an uncertainty, a decision was made to spend the state and federal money the Authority does have, and some that officials hope to get in the near future, on completing a much shorter 171-mile section of the project from Merced to Bakersfield, called the “Initial Operating Segment.”
The area currently has passenger rail service via Amtrak’s San Joaquins line, but that trip takes about three hours and offers only seven roundtrips per day. Those trains also share tracks with freight trains, which often leads to delays and slowdowns.
I love the reporting, "only seven roundtrips per day." Holy mackerel, how many do you need?
The area currently has passenger rail service via Amtrak’s San Joaquins line, but that trip takes about three hours and offers only seven roundtrips per day.
Seven roundtrips per day! Holy mackerel. The Amtrak stops in Williston, ND, once a day, going east, and once a day, going west. One stop. Central Valley, California, seven round trips per day. Really? And by train, the trip takes up to 6 hours, one direction. By car? Significantly less; less than three hours.
By the way, that "Los Angeles-to-Anaheim" segment is from downtown Los Angeles, east to Disneyland. We'll never see it in Sophia's lifetime.
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California Budget
California budget deficit: probably worse than projected just weeks ago. These are the estimates (please feel free to fact check all of this):
- a year ago: $24 billion
- Newsom, the governor's office, "recently": $38 billion
- LAO, a few months ago: $58 billion
- LAO, most recent, February, 2024: $73 billion
- to put that $73 billion deficit estimate in perspective, the general fund spending for the state of Texas is $144 billion for the biennium (two years) -- California's projected deficit is equal to Texas' general fund spending for one year -- and Texas has no income tax. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
The tug-of-war between California Governor Gavin Newsom and the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office over the state’s projected budget deficit took a new turn Tuesday, February 20, 2024, when the LAO announced a revised shortfall of $73 billion — $15 billion more than previously forecast, and significantly more than the $38 billion gap that Newsom has estimated.
The LAO reported that recent revenue collection data “reflect even further weakness” for the state’s financial outcome.
“All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher” when the governor gives his revised projection of the state’s finances in May, 2024, the LAO said in a Tuesday update.
Opening Market Headlines -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46857MARKET.
FANG: hits a new all-time high today. An energy company.
Market opening headlines:
- Cramer: no Fed cuts this year.
- SolarEdge: the bad news -- stock tumbles; the worse news -- the outlook is getting gloomier. Or one could say the forecast for solar is getting cloudier. LOL.
- it's interesting to read the social comments -- solar has become a cult
- Apple: bad news. Apple likely to lose its stranglehold on its cash cow, its App Store.
- Apple TV+: another hit on its hands.
Missing a zero? Really. Liz says confidence is at best level since July, 2021 .... for those with poverty-level income, $15K to $25K range. Was this parody?
- EVs: not for me -- and apparently not for many others, either.
- Phil LeBeau: on CNBC this morning --- remains as disingenuous as ever - said the price cut by Ford for its Mustang E-Mach was due to competition --
- yes, Tesla cut its prices recently but no one sees the Mustang (historical) muscle car competing with a family sedan -- buyers simply don't want the EV Mustang (now that early adopters have bought theirs) and they certainly don't want the EV F-150
- McDonalds: among the fast foot restaurants, McDonald's had the best year.
- apparently consumers not upset with $18 Big Macs -- LOL
***************************************
California
California budget deficit: probably worse than projected just weeks ago. These are the estimates (please feel free to fact check all of this):
- a year ago: $24 billion
- Newsom, the governor's office, "recently": $38 billion
- LAO, a few months ago: $58 billion
- LAO, most recent, February, 2024: $73 billion
- to put that $73 billion deficit estimate in perspective, the general fund spending for the state of Texas is $144 billion for the biennium (two years) -- California's projected deficit is equal to Texas' general fund spending for one year -- and Texas has no income tax. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
The tug-of-war between California Governor Gavin Newsom and the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office over the state’s projected budget deficit took a new turn Tuesday, February 20, 2024, when the LAO announced a revised shortfall of $73 billion — $15 billion more than previously forecast, and significantly more than the $38 billion gap that Newsom has estimated.
The LAO reported that recent revenue collection data “reflect even further weakness” for the state’s financial outcome.
“All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher” when the governor gives his revised projection of the state’s finances in May, 2024, the LAO said in a Tuesday update.
Enough for now.
Personal investing: today, sizeable additions to my existing positions in --
- WMT
- ABBV
- CHRD
- MCD
- AVGO
- ENB
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- February 21, 2024
Locator: 46856B.
WTI: $76.67..
Friday, February 23, 2024: 55 for the month; 114 for the quarter, 114 for the year
None.
Thursday, February 22, 2024: 55 for the month; 114 for the quarter, 114 for the year
39995, conf, CLR, Ransom 12-30H,
39847, conf, EOG, Parshall 173-0312H,
39846, conf, EOG, Parshall 172-0312H,
38642, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-4,
39534, conf, Hess, EN-Person A-156-94-1522H-2,
RBN Energy: how Plaquemines LNG will impact gas availability in southeast Louisiana.
As mightily as U.S. LNG exports have impacted global trade dynamics, so have U.S. natural gas flows been reshaped by the pull toward Gulf Coast export terminals. The next new terminal on deck is Venture Global’s enormous Plaquemines facility in Louisiana, which could begin taking feedgas as early as late fall 2024 and will eventually ramp up to more than 2.6 Bcf/d. For Southeast Louisiana, home to a massive industrial corridor along the Mississippi River as well as the U.S. natural gas benchmark Henry Hub, the introduction of such a huge source of demand will change how gas flows into and out of the region — with knock-on effects across the Gulf Coast. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll turn once again to our Arrow Model to help illuminate what the path forward may look like.
In our first blog in this series, we introduced the concept of the Arrow Model — a proprietary RBN analytical framework that organizes Texas and Louisiana into pipeline “corridors” that can be used to assess changes in regional inflows and outflows via groups of pipes that serve similar markets from comparable supply sources. These pipeline corridors are aggregations of pipelines connecting relevant market hubs — some within Texas and Louisiana and others outside the two states.
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