My Favorite Companies -- Not Investing -- January 9, 2024 -- IN PROGRESS

Locator: 46506COMMENTARY.

Not ready for prime time. Still being written / edited. 

This has nothing to do with investing. This is simply some rambling about the quality of life in America for a very well-off older white male living in suburban America in a temperate climate. Six months out of the year the weather is perfect; three months of the year the weather is fantastic; three months of the year, the weather reminds me how nice the other nine months are.

Three of my favorite companies are Amazon, Hulu, and Apple. As I go along, I will probably think of more. I just did.

Four of my favorite companies are Amazon, Apple, Hulu, and Walmart.

Okay, add one more: Amazon, Apple, Hulu, Schwab, and Walmart.

Four of my favorite activities are biking, blogging, reading, and swimming. 

I love technology, but don't know much about it and probably only experience 1% (maybe less) of the technology that is currently available to the average American. Whatever "average" is.

I truly admire the airline industry but hate flying. Counterintuitive. I marvel at the fact that the airline industry functions as well as it does serving so many people in a very challenging environment on so many levels.  

But let's get back to the companies I love. Amazon, Apple, Hulu, Schwab, and Walmart.

I can't say enough about Apple products. And that's all I'm going to say right now.

Walmart. "Our" Walmart is probably of the biggest size (footprint) Walmart has, and is probably one of the busiest Walmarts in the United States. Our Walmart never seems to run out of the things I need and I never, never, never wait in line to check out. Our Walmart must have some kind of record for the number of self-check-out lanes and the number of full-service check out lanes. It's hard to find any other retailer with lower prices than Walmart on a day-in, day-out basis.

Walmart. Delivery. Right now, Target, Walmart, and Amazon are going to "duke" it out with one hour / same day delivery. It was just announced that Target will cover 75% of the DFW area (north Texas, Dallas / Fort Worth) with drones this next year. It will be fascinating to watch. My hunch: it will be expensive and won't match Amazon's logistics system. I might be wrong; we'll see. The big problem: availability of product. Amazon is by far the biggest, then Walmart. I can't imagine Target comes close to either of those two. 

Hulu. Incredible. I understand YouTube TV is just as good, probably better, but regardless, Hulu is amazing. I stream Hulu on no less than four different Apple products (27" desktop; laptop (small/large); iPad (small/large), and three "smart" non-Apple monitors (they used to be called televisions, but now they are flat-screen monitors). And we live in a small, one-bedroom apartment with a bat cave.

Schwab. My understanding is that Fidelity is every bit as good as Schwab. I don't know. All I know is Schwab is incredible. 

Finally, Amazon. I won't invest in Amazon. I don't think Jeff Bezos cares about his shareholders. Jeff Bezos seems only to care about his customers. He keeps adding more "product" and seldom raises prices. Some of his "products" are a la carte and cost extra, and if his prices / subscriptions ever get too high, one can start cutting back on some of the extras. Prime Video is awesome. Comes with the basic subscription. A music subscription costs a bit extra. Alexa is awesome though I don't ask her much. Amazon now charges a bit if one wants to watch Amazon Prime Video without ads. For me that was a no-brainer. I forget the cost, a couple of dollars a month and no commercials. Thursday Night Football (NFL) and Amazon introduced technology not used by the networks to watch the games. Pharmacy. Whole Foods.

Amazon. The customer service on delivery is incredible. Knock on wood, we have never, ever missed / lost a delivery. I don't even track deliveries any more. If something doesn't come I won't care. I'm very serious about that. I'll simply re-order. Inexpensive orders are dropped off at the door 14/7 -- between eight a.m. and ten p.m. every day of the week. If I order a high-value item, it is delivered to a locker about a mile down the road. 

Amazon. I have a number of non-perishable items delivered on a regular "subscription" basis, like K-cups (Starbuck coffee), generic Rogaine, anchovies. I will start adding more items like paper products. Every time a "subscription" item is ready to ship, Amazon asks if I still want the delivery. A simple one-click keeps the delivery as requested, or "skips" it.

Amazon. Yesterday, I went to order a book on Amazon. It turns out the book won't be published / released until August 14, 2024, or something like that. But if I pre-order it, which I did, Amazon guarantees the lowest price. Right now, the publisher says the book will be priced somewhere between $19.99 and $49.99. Quite a spread. I assume it will come out at $29.99 or $39.99 at a brick-and-mortar store (Barnes and Noble) or $19.99 at Amazon. If it comes out higher than $19.99, I still get it at the price I paid yesterday ($19.99) and if the price is lower upon publication, I will be refunded the difference. 

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Others

Restaurants

McDonald's

Starbucks

Retail

Walgreen's for photos: always look for coupons 

Home Goods: need to visit the store at least once weekly; turnover is so fast; new products every day, it seems. 

Belk: incredible quality and selection.

Dollar Tree: for "Hot Tamales"

Active Rigs Jump To 40; Grayson Mill With Four New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46505B.

Active rigs: 40!

WTI: $72.17.

Four new permits, #40443 - #40446, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Elk
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for four Alfred South wells in NESE 19-151-102; 
• to be sited between 2305 FSL and 2327 FSL and between 399 FEL and 517 FEL;

Five permits renewed:

• Whiting (3): three Klose / Klose Federal permits, Glass Bluff, McKenzie:
• Enerplus (2): two fort Berthold permits, Eagle Nest, Dunn County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39672, 908, Slawson, Barnstormer Federal 2-3-15H,
• 39705, 566, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 3B,
• 39754, 1,925, Grayson Mill, Cuda 14-26F 1H, Round Prairie, super long horizontal;
  
• 39755, 1,959, Grayson Mill, Cuda 14-26F 2H, Round Prairie, super long horizontal;
• 39756, 2,177, Grayson Mill, Cuda 14-26F XE, Round Prairie, super long horizontal;
• 40097, 285, True Oil, Ness 41-25 M1H, 

Wells of interest:

• 20152, IA/805, Grayson Mill, Short Prairie 4-2322H, Round Prairie, t1/12; cum 148K 8/23;
• 20150, IA/575, Grayson Mill, Short Prairie 4-2627H, Round Prairie, t9/11; cum 161K 8/23;
• 20128, IA/563, Grayson Milll, Short Prairie 3-1415H, Round Prairie, t8/11; cum 149K 8/23;

SEC X Account Compromised -- Update -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46504SEC.

I saw the headline ... was surprised ... 

... now the SEC:

And, coincidentally, I can't reach Fox News on any of the three big browsers (3:46 p.m. CT, north Texas). Fox News is now back up (3:47 p.m. CT) ... it was unreachable for at least three minutes.

All I Need To Know For Today -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46503INV.

 

This Was Not On My Bingo Card Today -- Stellantis -- US -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46502AUTOS.

Updates

January 19, 2024:

Original Post 

January 9, 2024: one-two punch -- 

• sticker shock -- incredibly expensive;
• confusion -- incredibly complicated; and,
• then there's the range problem
• 2024: will be the watershed year for BEVs; PHEVs will continue to grab bragging rights;
  

January 9, 2024: link here.

January 9, 2024: link here.

From the linked article:

Stellantis reports 343,552 vehicle sales in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2023 (down 1.2% year-over-year). 

Similarly, the full-year result of 1,527,090 is also 1.3% lower than in 2022. 

At the same time, the group noted significant progress on the electrification front, more than doubling its plug-in hybrid car sales to new record levels. 

According to Stellantis, in Q4 2023 its PHEV sales in the U.S. increased by 118% year-over-year, which we estimated at around *44,000 units. That's a new quarterly record and a noticeable 12.8% share out of the group's total volume. 

No one sells more PHEVs in the U.S. than Stellantis, which currently offers five models, under four brands: Alfa Romeo Tonale model (PHEV-only), Dodge Hornet R/T (PHEV) (alongside the ICE version), Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, Jeep Grand Cherokee 4xe, and Jeep Wrangler 4xe. 

The two Jeeps and the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid are the highest volume PHEVs on the market (top three plug-in hybrids). Meanwhile, the Alfa Romeo Tonale and Dodge Hornet R/T are quickly gaining share within their brands. In the case of Alfa Romeo, the PHEV share is already at 37%, although that's mostly because the brand's presence in the U.S. is very small. 

A very significant achievement is that almost one in four new Jeeps is rechargeable. 

Plug-in car sales in Q4'2023 (some numbers estimated): 

• Alfa Romeo PHEVs: 1,233 (new) and 37.3% share 

• Chrysler PHEVs: 2,848 (down 30%) and 27.5% share 

• Dodge PHEVs: 3,591 (new) and 8.4% share 

• Jeep PHEVs: 36,405 (up 125%) and 23.8% share 

• Stellantis PHEVs: 44,077 (up 118%) and 12.8% share 

In 2023, Stellantis sold more than 142,000 plug-in hybrid cars in the U.S., which is 124% more than in 2022 and 9.4% of the group's total volume. 

Stellantis says that it holds the highest PHEV market share in the industry, owning 47%. It means that the total PHEV sales must be slightly above 300,000 and that all of the other carmakers sold about 161,000 PHEVs. Toyota (including Lexis) was able to sell 39,551 PHEVs, BMW brand sold 25,318 and Mitsubishi sold 6,681 to give you some perspective for manufacturers that shared PHEV sales data.

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Autos

Previously and recently:

Ford: annual sales increase lower than the overall industry's growth. Link here.

EVs: Ford loses EV bragging rights to GM: link here. Best summary to date.

For the full year, Ford shipped almost 2 million vehicles in the U.S., up about 7% compared with 2022. BEV sales came in at about 73,000 units, up 17%. Hybrid (fake EVs) sales amounted to almost 134,000 units in 2023, up 25% from 2022. 

Despite Ford’s sales growth, General Motors still edged its rival out for the title of second-largest EV maker in the U.S., behind Tesla. Ford had held the No. 2 spot in 2022. GM shipped 75,585 BEVs in 2023. 

Tesla U.S. numbers aren’t available yet, but its lead is immense. It probably sold roughly 600,000 BEVs in the U.S. in 2023.

Earnings Season -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46501INV.

Link here.

$TSLA $AAPL $NFLX $SOFI $META $BAC $PEP $BLK $BA $INTC $GS $TSM $UAL $VZ $DIS $PFE $F $IBM $AA $CLF $MS $CVX $T $DFS $NOW $JNJ $SCHW $SLB $PGR $GM $ASML $AXP $COP $BMY $HAL $GE ... and a reminder, companies like $MSFT $AMZN $AMD $GOOGL $PLTR $PYPL etc. won't tell us when they will report until next week or so (and any site that is giving a date for those companies is just guessing).

 

The Book Page -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46500BOOKS.

From AEI, recently: AEI's favorite books of 2023.

David Shaywitz—Adjunct Fellow

We’re living through a remarkably exciting and dynamic time in both biomedical and digital innovation. Over the last year or so, I’ve had the opportunity to review and discuss a number of books that examine and try to make sense of the opportunities and challenges we’re collectively navigating. Recommended recent reads include:

• The Song of the Cell by Siddhartha Mukherjee (History of cell biology) review
• From One Cell by Ben Stanger (History of developmental biology) discussion
• The Good Virus by Tom Ireland (Wild history of phage therapy) review
• Programmable Planet by Ted Anton (History of synthetic biology) review
• The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman (Will AI save or destroy us?) review
• The Alignment Problem by Brian Christian (Aligning technology with human values) review
• Genius Makers by Cade Metz (History of deep learning/AI) review
• For Blood and Money by Nathan Vardi (Dramatic story of the development of two recent oncology drugs) discussion
• In the Blood by Charles Barber (Unexpected discovery and challenging development of a blood coagulant) review
• You Bet Your Life by Paul Offit (The challenges of new medical treatments) review

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Shakespeare -- The Merchant Of Venice

Quick! Name the "merchant" of Venice. LOL.

99% of folks will get that wrong.

Weather -- Updates -- Battery Storage -- ISO-NE -- Road To New England -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46499NE.

Link here.

New England: the story hasn't changed.

• the energy imports are coming from Trinidad -- as usual
• wind: 17% of 5% is .... drum roll ...  0.00.85% --- not even one percent contribution to energy needs
• demand is currently exceeding forecast
• $82 / MWH
  

Maine installing more batteries. Link here. Cost: $100 millon-plus for two hours of storage; won't be ready until mid-2025.

Battery projects have key ratings, including the instantaneous power they can release and the duration they can do it for. At 175 megawatts of power capacity, Cross Town will be able to power 175,000 average homes. It’s also rated at 350 MWh, which means it could discharge that much energy for up to two hours.

Houston-based Plus Power has plans to begin construction this spring of the Cross Town 175 MW/350 MWh battery storage installation at the Gorham Industrial Park in the town of Gorham. When completed by mid-2025, it will be one of the largest energy storage facilities in New England. The $100 million-plus project will feature 156 containers spread across five acres in the Gorham Industrial Park with lithium iron phosphate batteries inside. Plus Power is actively involved in the construction of 60 energy storage projects either already operating or in development across the US and Canada.

Everett Update -- It Gets Tiresome -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46498NE.

From December 7, 2023:

RBN Energy: pending closure of Everett LNG Terminal poses challenge for New England gas supply.

The Everett LNG import terminal, a mainstay of Boston’s gas grid, is expected to close by the end of May 2024, raising questions about future gas supply in New England. The terminal’s closure is closely tied to the imminent loss of its biggest customer, the 1,413-MW Mystic generating station — the region’s largest fossil-fuel plant. Constellation Energy, which owns both the Everett terminal and the Mystic power plant, has said it can’t keep Everett open next year when the Mystic plant closes unless another gas purchaser takes its place. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll address the impacts of Everett’s potential demise on New England in the short term and on regional gas supply during future polar vortex events.

The fate of the Everett terminal (red diamond in Figure 1) is complicated because it’s one of the only facilities on the East Coast that can accept LNG from giant tankers and regasify it for local use. In addition to the Mystic generating station (yellow triangle), the terminal is also connected to the Tennessee Gas Pipeline (lavender line) and Algonquin Gas Transmission (green line) systems — the primary conduits for gas piped in from the Marcellus/Utica — which feed about 12,000 MW of gas-fired power and provide gas for heating, cooking and other residential and commerciaal purposes. Constellation, an Exelon subsidiary, decided to close the Mystic facility shortly after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) denied a complaint challenging ISO-New England’s (ISO-NE) planning process for replacing the Boston-area facility.

Figure 1. Everett LNG Import Terminal, Mystic Generating Station, and Key Regional Pipelines.

Source: RBN 

Updates

Two links:

• https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/11/holy-mackerel-quite-story-massachusetts.html

• https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1744525638659432870

Summary Of Bakken Deals -- 2023

Locator: 46497B.

Previously posted. Just the usual, occasional housekeeping.

Bakken deals are tracked at the sidebar at the right.

The deals:

• Bowline Transfers Upwards Of 240 Oil & Gas Wells To Neptune Operating, LLC; Natural Gas, Less Than A Nickel Away From $2 -- February 21, 2023 -- link here

• Ovintiv Update -- Divests All Of Its Bakken Assets -- $18K / Acre -- $22K / Flowing BOEPD -- Buyer Is Grayson Mill — June 3, 2023 -- link here.

• Chord-XTO Deal? May 22, 2023 -- link here.

• Ovintiv Update -- Divests All Of Its Bakken Assets -- $18K / Acre -- $22K / Flowing BOEPD -- Buyer Is Grayson Mill — June 3, 2023 -- link here.

• PetroShale Inc Exits North Dakota Bakken -- June 17, 2023 -- link here.

• Kraken Resources Will Acquire / Has Acquired Crescent Point Energy Assets In North Dakota -- October 16, 2023 -- link here. Neptune Operating is a subsidiary of Kraken. 

OXY Vs The Rest -- January 9, 2024

Locator: 46496B.

Personal investing: today, will add to my ABBV position.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

From Bloomberg today:

January 9, 2024: from Bloomberg today --

The Importance Of Reading 10-Ks All Day Long -- January 9, 2024

 Locator: 46495INV.

Updates

January 9, 2024: from Bloomberg today --

January 9, 2024:  NVDA at an all-time new high. We all had the same information one year ago and five years ago:

• from Barron's:  

•  looks like someone did not read, or misread, at least one 10-K:

We all had theh smae informamtion andd the same 10-K last year and five years ago:

Original Post

Locator: 46488INV.

TAG: Snarky.

Breaking

Later, 4:18 p.m. CT:

Original Post

Link here.

Also, when I bought JNJ years ago I never knew about JNJ's talcum powder issue. But other than that, the 10-Ks have been very helpful. LOL.

Oh, that's right ... there was also the Texaco fiasco -- involving Paul Getty or something along that line .. .I've long forgotten ... but other than that the 10-Ks have been very helpful. Oh, yes, the whole thing with Lucent decades ago...

Oh, another one ... 3M ... multiple lawsuits, including the biggie -- the hearing protection issue -- I never even knew 3M was involved with hearing protection ... yeah, reading those 10-Ks have been a real hoot.

Now, back to Shakespeare and The Merchant of Venice --- which, by the way, also involves a lawsuit. LOL.

Tuesday, Januuary 9, 2024 -- What We May Or May Not Be Discuussing Today

Locator: 46494B.

Things we may get around to talking about today at the deli -- or not:

• Sports
• Really? Washington ranked #2? Really?
• Stories getting old:
• Boston and LNG
• climate change and forest fires
• Trump
• Peter Zeihan gets it right -- again
• Ukraine
• Israel
• WTI
• OPEC
• ESG / DEI 
• pro-Palestinian protestors
  
• Laughable:
• BRK and reading 10-Ks
• folks have had two years+ to invest in NVDA 
• I won't blogging about the Bakken but AI is a whole lot more interesting right now
  
• NVDA:
• wow
• Auto:
• ouch
• Book recommendations
• pre-ordered from Amazon
• for all the grief Amazon gets, absolutely focused on customer satisfaction

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.44.

Wednesday, January 10, 2024: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 10 for the year
39997, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Francisco 2-20H,

Tuesday, January 9, 2024: 9 for the month; 9 for the quarter, 9 for the year
39996, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Reardon 1-20H,
39928, conf, Neptune Operating, Fritz 20-29-32 2H,
39927, conf, Neptune Operating, Fritz 20-29-32 3H,

RBN Energy: Alberta's ethane demand to soar with approval of new Dow ethane cracker. Archived.

The demand for ethane by Alberta’s petrochemical industry has experienced a slow expansion in the past 20 or so years. However, that demand is likely to increase sharply by the end of the decade now that Dow Chemical has sanctioned a major expansion at its operations in Fort Saskatchewan, AB, that will more than double the site’s ethane requirements. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, this will call for an “all-hands-on-deck” approach to increasing Alberta’s access to ethane supplies from numerous sources.