Updates
Later, 5:59 p.m. CT: Jim Cramer's summary monologue today --
- defying the Wall Street critics;
- Netflix, Tesla, Amazon, Apple;
- the customer is always right.
Original Post
Some time ago, I suggested that it's very counterintuitive but Covid-19 was NOT the "black swan" many think it is.
Most importantly, the "pandemic" telescoped 2020 - 2035 into 2020 - 2025. We see that in technology, education, work, and leisure time. What would have taken fifteen to twenty years will now take five to ten years.
Perhaps more importantly, it provided a "trial run" for managing a pandemic or a national emergency in which the enemy is unknown or cannot be seen. The system / bureaucracy experienced a "real-world" exercise. Incredibly important. We saw how quickly life-saving vaccines and medications could be brought to the market if there was a political will to do so. Now we will get a chance to see another CEO -- the new president -- see how quickly he can get those vaccines into the arms of every American citizen.
With regard to Covid-19, the new metric to follow is the percent of folks vaccinated. So far, from what I can tell, most states have not even been able to vaccinate group one in Phase 1a. And there is phase 1a, phase 1b, and phase 1c, before we get to phase 2. And amazingly, phase 2 does not include all Americans, only "those that are recommended to get the vaccine."
And, finally, it telescoped the "market." The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow would have eventually hit these all-time highs but it would have taken a few more years. These all-time highs arrived five to ten years early.
At the moment:
I'm lovin' it and thrilled to see that the new administration and the mainstream media appear to love free market capitalism and a surging market as much as I do.
At the close:
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CNBC
I didn't watch any of the Washington, DC, proceedings. I kept checking for CNBC to get back to financial news and it appears they finally got back to financial news at 3:15 p.m. CT. I guess I saw the VP walking down some street to some building.
First question from CNBC talking head: when will there be a pullback? Then, their next concern, the 10-year Treasury. The CNBC said the 10-year Treasury was slightly above 1%. I see it at 1.08% and down 1.2 basis points for the day. Link here.
The talking head, Soctt Minerd, from Guggenheim pretty much shut the CNBC talking heads down with that silly talk.
He doesn't expect any meaningful pullback -- there's another stimulus round yet to be seen. He is also fairly confident we won't see 1.5% on the 10-year for any meaningful period of time. He says there is so much money out there, we're not going to see huge jump in interest rates. In addition, he said the Fed does not want to hurt the housing market. Pent-up savings; a lot of money going to folks that don't need it. The dollar will be stronger, not weaker. He did not elaborate. International equities? Minerd thinks the foreign markets have lagged so much they are bound to catch up. Near the end, he said "a weakening" dollar so he either misspoke or I misunderstood. But earlier, when asked directly about a weakening dollar he emphatically shot that suggestion down.
Bottom line: Scott Minerd extremely bullish and sees more upside.
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