Updates
September 30, 2012: a reader sent in the breakdown of active rigs by operator when the number of active rigs in North Dakota hit a record -- May 31, 2012. The CLR and the OXY USA numbers account for a huge percent of the recent decrease in active rigs.
The smaller operators have almost no room to maneuver; with only one or two rigs, they can't cut much if they want to stay in the Bakken.
It is interesting that the low-cost driller has appeared to increase the number of active rigs.
BEXP and CLR, I believe, will be cutting one more rig each. With pad drilling, less rigs are needed. A random thought: CLR probably knows the Bakken as well as anyone, and may be moving into the "manufacturing" stage ahead of others, requiring significantly fewer rigs to meet internal targets. See long comment below dated September 30, 2012, -- some great thoughts.
Original Post
There's been a lot of talk this past year about drillers laying down rigs to save money/cut costs.
Here are some data points, taken from August 22, 2011, and September 28, 2012, one year later. On August 22, 2011, there were 195 active rigs in North Dakota, at a time when the number of rigs was still increasing and would eventually hit a high of 218 on May 29, 2012. Three months later, on August 7, 2012, it had dropped to 198. Dropping from 218 to 198 in less than three months seems precipitous but spread out over 20+ companies, it doesn't amount to much in the big scheme of things. Especially when one considers how much faster rigs are reaching total depth, pad drilling, and improved infrastructure (for "everything").
I wish I had a breakdown of wells when "we" were at a record (218) and it's possible I posted the distribution of rigs about that time, but I don't recall. For me, I just can't get too excited about the talk about "stacking" rigs. By the say, in its most recent update American Eagle said they had contracted for another rig (which might be reflected below) demonstrating that some companies will drop rigs, others will add rigs. And, oh by the way, there are new drillers in the Bakken.
Remember, these are snapshots in time, and on any given day, the number could change. Again, these are data points taken from August 22, 2011; May 31, 2012; and, September 28, 2012, one year later. Remember: the record number of active rigs was at the end of May, 2012.
So, snapshot below: August 22, 2011 --> May 31, 2012 --> September 28, 2012 --> March 4, 2013
- BEXP: 16 --> 18 --> 15 --> 12 (in Sept 2012, expected to see another rig stacked)
- BR: 9 --> 8 --> 8 --> 9
- CLR: 14 --> 24 --> 15 --> 18 (in Sept 2012, change in philosophy)
- Enerplus: 2 --> 3 --> 3 --> 2
- EOG: 7 --> 7 --> 5 --> 5
- Fidelity: 4 --> 4 --> 5 --> 5
- G3 Operating: 2 --> 1 --> 3 --> 2
- Hess: 17 --> 19 --> 17 --> 16
- Hunt: 2 --> 4 --> 3 --> 2
- KOG: 8 --> 7 --> 8 --> 8
- MRO: 6 --> 7 --> 7 --> 5
- Newfield: 2 --> 2 --> 3 --> 3
- Oasis: 8 --> 8 --> 8 --> 11
- OXY USA: 6 --> 12 --> 6 --> 5
- Petro-Hunt: 12 --> 13 --> 10 --> 12
- Triangle: 2 --> 2 --> 3 --> 2
- Whiting: 17 --> 15 --> 18 --> 17
- WPX: 6 --> 6 --> 6 --> 4
- XTO: 7 --> 7--> 5 --> 9
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And then there's this:
