Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Amazon Has Destroyed US Retail -- SecTreasury Mnuchin -- July 24, 2019

SecTreasury Mnuchin says Amazon has destroyed US retail

I'll start shopping on-line at Target, Walmart, Sears, or any other retailer if that on-line retailer:
  • offers the same number of line items as Amazon; including Amazon's full inventory of books (Barnes and Noble does not offer as many book selections as Amazon; and, that's BN's core -- selling books)
  • offers the same no-questions asked for any return; full refund as does Amazon;
  • offers one-click buying;
  • offers same day delivery; sometimes one-hour delivery;
  • offers a credit card with 5% cash reward loyalty benefits
  • offers "unlimited free" video 
  • offers unlimited access to 3rd party sellers 
  • gladly accepts almost any credit card
  • offers "complete" security (remember the Target breach? probably the biggest retail security breach in history); to the best of my knowledge, Amazon has never had a security breach
  • knows me well enough to "target" me with ads I appreciate
  • sends me products for free if I promise to review them
  • free shipping
  • at least "meets" Amazon pricing
The SecTreasury suggests breaking up Amazon. Perhaps Amazon One will sell products beginning with the letters A - L; and, Amazon Two will sell products beginning with the letters M - Z, and the two companies need to be completely separate companies.

Amazon accounts for less than 5% of total US retail sales.

OKE, Ford, Tesla: 2Q19 -- Earnings -- July 24, 2019

OKE: if I'm reading this correctly, OKE has decreased its next dividend from 86.5 cents (5.05% annual yield) to 25 cents (1.46% annual yield). 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

******************************************
Ford

2Q19 earnings: beats on both top line, bottom line.
  • Estimates: Analysts expect Ford earnings per share to increase 11% to 30 cents despite sales slipping 4% to $34.51 billion as sales in the U.S., China and Europe fell. The Dearborn, Mich.-based automaker is phasing out passenger cars like the Focus.  
  • Results: EPS of 32 cents on automotive revenue of $35.07 billion. 
Stock plunges after hours; drops 7% on weak guidance.

**********************************
Tesla

Updates
Posted In "Real-Time" 

Later, 3:49 p.m. CT: Finally, after hours, Tesla shares plunge 4% -- earnings must be out. Now, down almost 8%; down almost $20. If the earnings are not out, "someone knows something" the rest of us don't know. Particularly bad considering:
  • the stock was trading higher all day on an otherwise down day for the market (Dow)
  • pundits were thrilled about upside surprise on 2Q19 deliveries
Ticker:
  • 3:51, no earnings report; down 8.64%; down $22.32/share
  • 3:57 p.m., earnings out: down 9.23%; $24.44/share
  • 3.58 p.m.: down 10.76%; $28.35/share
  • 3:59 p.m.: down 10.94%; $28.94/share
  • 3:59 p.m.: down 11.04%; $29.23/share
  • by 4:03, trending toward a loss of 12%/share; a loss of $31/share
Watching the ticker; still don't see any report of earnings.

CNBC (when I couldn't find earnings report, I quickly turned on the television, and CNBC was just announcing results:
  • reporting a loss of $1.12 (consensus was for a loss of 40 cents/share)
  • gross margin: 19% (second or third consecutive quarter of decline; investors hoping for 20% or better; Munster says 19% respectable considering price of Model 3)
  • disaster for investors 
  • revenue in line; guidance on deliveries not 
  • "extreme demoralizing release from Tesla; big miss; bar pretty low; record vehicle sales; if you can't generate a profit on record high sales" -- talking head 
  • CNBC: trying to reassure investors but "maximum disappointment"
  • "Goldilocks" quarter and they still lost over a dollar/share
  • free cash flow -- $614 million  ($136 million expected)  -- due to higher deliveries
  • Model 3: structurally unprofitable; S and X -- decreasing sales
  • impressed by free cash flow (but that's very temporary -- based on higher deliveries)
    • interesting: CNBC hanging their hat on "free cash flow"
    • and, yet, lost money on a record-setting sales quarter
  • tax credit goes away completely at end of year
Original Post

Deliveries: upside surprise on 2Q19 deliveries
Earlier this month, TSLA said it delivered 95,200 total vehicles in Q2, ahead of Wall Street’s estimate for 91,000. That’s the widest beat in at least three years.
While we're waiting, from August 1, 2018, Tesla's free cash flow:

Tesla free cash flow at this link.

We'll see if Tesla reports it's free cash flow for 2Q19 earnings.

We're Doing Fine -- NOG Press Release -- As Shares Trend Toward 52-Week Low -- July 24, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read.

From what I can tell, this press release provides no "new" information except to reassure investors "things are on track."

Fifteen DUCs Reported As Completed; Whiting, Bruin With Several Great Wells -- July 24, 2019

Active rigs:

$55.807/24/201907/24/201807/24/201707/24/201607/24/2015
Active Rigs5866593273

Three new permits, #36781 - 36783, inclusive):
  • Operators: Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P. (2); Equinor
  • Field: Dimond (Burke County); Last Chance (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Lime Rock has permits for a 2-well Mariner ... 91P pad in section 15-160-91, Dimond oil field
    • Equinor has a permit for a Marcia well in lot 3 / section 3-153-100, Last Chance oil field
Four permits renewed:
  • Whiting (2): two P Bibler permits in Williams County
  • Slawson: one Stallion permit in Mountrail County
  • Sinclair: one Olson Federal permit in Dunn County
Three permits canceled:
  • Whiting (2): two P Thomas permits in Williams County
  • Zavanna: a Raven permit in McKenzie County
Fifteen producing wells (DUCs( reported as completed:
  • 33204, 1,934, Petroshale, P Petroshale US 13H, Danish, t5/19; cum 28K after 22 days; 
  • 35939, 2,239, Whiting, Nelsen 11-2HU, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35756, 2,581, Whiting,  Nelsen 11-2-1H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35757, 1,851, Whiting, Nelsen 11-2-2H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35822, 2,249, Whiting, Wahlstrom 21-3-4H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 35823, 1,539, Whiting, Wahlstrom 21-3-3H, Elk, t7/19; cum --; 
  • 32273, 797, Slawson, Submariner Federal 7-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35205, 818, Slawson, Stallion Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, t7/19; cum --;
  • 35794, 700, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 6TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35795, 1,104, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 7H, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --; 
  • 35796, 700, Kraken Operating, Rixey 33-28 8TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t6/19; cum --;
  • 29539, 4,635, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1B-12-2H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --;
  • 29787, 3,099, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1A-12-1TFH, Tyrone, t7/19; cum -;
  • 33335, 2,871, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1A-12-4H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --;
  • 33336, 3,047, Bruin E&P Operating, Borrud 156-101-1A-12-5H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum --; 
***********************************************
Non-Bakken News

Huge inventory draw -- 10 million bbls. WTI falls almost 2%; falls almost a dollar / bbl; trading under $56/bbl.

Keeping America Great: Gasoline Demand, US Equities -- July 24, 2019

Link here.

Stock market, earnings, gasoline demand. Not one thing suggesting a recession.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think what you might have read here.


US equity markets: huge day. Take out BA and CAT, and the Dow would have been up 130 points, maybe more, based on the S&P 500.



Sedans? One word: done.

Ford: will invest $50 million in its Chicago operations to fund new models of its Explorer SUVs. Keeping America great. And the union workers will still vote against Trump. Whatever.

EVs: no one has thought this through. Or at least been brave enough to write about it.

-10.8 Million -- July 24, 2019

WTI: up 1.4%; up 81 cents; trading at $57.58.

One swallow doesn't a summer make. 

Link here. From EIA:
  • weekly US crude oil inventories: decreased by a whopping 10.8 million bbls; corroborates API's data from yesterday
  • weekly US crude oil inventory: at 445.0 million bbls, about 2% above the five-year average
  • refineries operating at 93.1% capacity; near high end
  • crude oil imports, four-week average: almost 14% less than same four-week period one year ago
Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 10
January 31, 2019
0.9
445.9
Week 11
February 6, 2019
1.3
447.2
Week 12
February 13, 2019
3.6
450.8
Week 13
February 21, 2019
3.7
454.5
Week 14
February 27, 2019
-8.6
445.9
Week 15
March 6, 2019
7.1
452.9
Week 16
March 13, 2019
-3.9
449.1
Week 17
March 20, 2019
-9.6
439.5
Week 18
March 27, 2019
2.8
442.3
Week 19
April 3, 2019
7.2
449.5
Week 20
April 10, 2019
7.0
456.5
Week 21
April 17, 2019
-1.4
455.2
Week 22
April 24, 2019
5.5
460.1
Week 23
May 1, 2019
9.9
470.6
Week 24
May 8, 2019
-4.0
466.6
Week 25
May 15, 2019
5.4
472.0
Week 26
May 22, 2019
4.7
476.8
Week 27
May 30, 2019
-0.3
476.5
Week 28
June 5, 2019
6.8
483.3
Week 29
June 12, 2019
2.2
485.5
Week 30
June 19, 2019
-3.1
482.4
Week 31
June 26, 2019
-12.8
469.6
Week 32
July 3, 2019
-1.1
468.5
Week 33
July 10, 2019
-9.5
459.0
Week 34
July 17, 2019
-3.1
455.9
Week 35
July 24, 2019
-10.8
-445.1




The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- The QEP Lawlar Wells In The Helis Grail -- July 24, 2019

The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. These wells are only five years old. They will produce for 35 years. They are already showing huge jumps in production. Production jumped 10-fold between 7/18 and 11/18. 

Instructions on the back of the Bakken shampoo bottle: drill, frack, install pump; re-work; mini-re-frack; frack neighboring wells; major re-frack; repeat.

These wells are tracked here. This page will not be updated.

The wells:

25041, 3,128, QEP, Lawlar 4-5-8BH, Grail, t4/14; cum 473K 5/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2019311837918213912955370478907065
BAKKEN4-201922154281556286463402233396347
BAKKEN3-2019312045420485775749786479741281
BAKKEN2-2019282334723356636751805498331594
BAKKEN1-20193132228322131237558167547033059
BAKKEN12-20182928300282171567842213407831044
BAKKEN11-20182023792235465391100
BAKKEN10-2018001870000
BAKKEN9-201817156515061392065188237
BAKKEN8-2018311811184627529082645108
BAKKEN7-201831220121812054413414250

25039, 2,778, QEP, Lawlar 3-5-8BH, Grail, t4/14; cum 422K 5/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2019311425414234791949678429676339
BAKKEN4-2019302182321741115385938258291605
BAKKEN3-201918106701085143522337522525601
BAKKEN2-2019282367023680714147480456731461
BAKKEN1-20193132821327951396057037536403000
BAKKEN12-20183127838277271733941356399541023
BAKKEN11-2018252061820405853262483559385763
BAKKEN10-201800830000
BAKKEN9-2018176917741642242204340
BAKKEN8-2018312337234024829822712111

24947, 2,586, QEP, Lawlar 2-5-8BH, Grail, t9/13; cum 559K 5/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20191159116221176220694170213553
BAKKEN4-20193018998188568187824075930322700
BAKKEN3-20193017749175886635565874604910146
BAKKEN2-2019281670716721783639261388870
BAKKEN1-20193126466263431338450548501270
BAKKEN12-20183131718317921914152479520580
BAKKEN11-2018192392323787229493520134391552
BAKKEN10-201800390000
BAKKEN9-20185364432499358771
BAKKEN8-20183127442909180652761060

24946, 1,823, QEP, Lawlar 1-5-8BH, Grail, t9/13; cum 587K 5/19;  
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20191766036499655724027197054113
BAKKEN4-20192072367287687423082165026317
BAKKEN3-20193110755107331093035311285986301
BAKKEN2-20192814220141651003340130397500
BAKKEN1-20193116981168931311549555491340
BAKKEN12-20183119019190341693046721463000
BAKKEN11-2018181174511727134552096320378327
BAKKEN10-201800330000
BAKKEN9-2018530937582123711782
BAKKEN8-20183124192476579829778760
BAKKEN7-20182816531579377647361170
BAKKEN6-20183016981706255698465760
BAKKEN5-20183142704578418876383440