Absolutely Amazing -- All Those Whiting Wells -- LOL -- September 2, 2021

The other day, I noted that Whiting had taken every one of its wells out of production -- at least all the wells I checked. Whiting well after Whiting well after Whiting well was reported by the NDIC to have had no crude oil production in July, 2021. There were so many wells, I simply quit looking.

After the umpteenth well I quit looking and added the disclaimer:

Data from the NDIC; NDIC does have some IT issues so there could be other explanations.  

That was August 31, 2021. Now, two days later, September 2, 2021, lo and behold, the NDIC has populated all those scout tickets with production for the month of July, 2021.

The NDIC must have received a lot of phone calls after it was being reported that Whiting had taken "all" its wells off line.

So, I was correct: it was an "IT" issue. It looks like the Whiting wells were not taken out of production. 

As noted at the NDIC website, all data after July 14, 2021, is suspect. 

Twenty-six Active Oil And Gas Rigs; Four New Permits; Eleven Permits Renewed -- September 2, 2021

US ceded the Arctic to Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada: Russia's offshore Arctic has oil and gas reserves "for centuries." Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Note: a reader pointed out that NDIC has not added any wells starting with permit #38430, July 16, 2021.

So permits, #38430 - #38533, inclusive, including the four most recent permits issued today, #38530- #38533, have not been added to the GIS map, and no scout tickets initiated.

NDIC's last "accurate" report was July 14, 2021. 

The scuttlebutt is that due to Covid-19, folks are working from home and transition from old database to new database is encountering major problems. 

Comment: I have not idea whether this is accurate or not, but I do know that permit data for  #38430 - #38533, inclusive, has not been updated at the NDIC website (GIS map or scout tickets). 

If this doesn't matter to the NDIC, it certainly doesn't matter to me. It's one way of keeping information confidential.

Active rigs:

$69.83	9/2/2021	09/02/2020	09/02/2019	09/02/2018	09/02/2017
Active Rigs	23	10	64	63	56

*Daily activity report, 28 active rigs:

• two SWD rigs
• twenty-six oil and gas rigs
• CLR: nine rigs

Four new permits, #38530 - #38533, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (2), Whiting (2)
• Fields: Oakdale (Dunn County); Sanish (Mountrail County)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for two Whitman FIU wells to be sited in NENE 34-147-96;
• Oakdale oil field, 280 FNL and between 860 FEL and 905 FEL
• Whiting has permits for two Kannianen wells in NESE 31-154-91;
• Sanish oil field; to be sited between 2497 FSL and 2530 FSL and between 333 FEL amd 345 FEL;

Eleven permits renewed:

• Enerplus (10): Dunn County:
• the ten permits;
• the Fox pad;
  
• Crescent Point Energy: a permit for a CPEUSC Austin well in Williams County

"Don't Underestimate Resident Biden's Ability To .... Things Up" -- President Obama -- September 2, 2021

It is a distinct possibility that the "big story" coming out of the Biden residency will be "an energy debacle," beginning with Resident Biden killing the Keystone XL. Wow. 

 

Quick: in the context below, what is "TTF":

From Europe: 

European gas prices are truly stepping intoz new territory with the forever held rule of oil price > gas price getting thrown out the window through this coming winter. There are likely major implications for power, carbon, oil ... TTF now trading at $105 / bbl of oil equivalent:

***************************
Perry Mason

Pending, not ready for prime time:

• maybe the best drama on network television, ever
• music
• should have quit after Perry Mason
• relationship between Perry Mason and Della Street is exquisite
  

Labor Day Weekend Gasoline Shortages -- Keep Your Tanks Full -- Do Not Let Tanks Get Below Seven-Eighths Full -- September 2, 2021

Holy mackerel! Right on cue. Just a couple of hours ago I posted this:

How bad might the global crude oil deficit be? Generally, residents and presidents in the White House don't use the bully pulpit for things they are not concerned about. Prior to the debacle known as the "Great Evacuation," the lead story was Resident Biden asking OPEC to open the taps. That story disappeared when the Afghan evacuation began and Hurricane Ida hit. That speaks volumes. When a situation rises to the level that gets the resident's attention, it has to be serious. 

Just moments ago, turning on Hulu to watch Perry Mason, I happened to catch headline news on CNBC. Top story: Resident Biden is releasing oil from the SPR and releasing gasoline from "emergency" reserves. 

I do believe Resident Biden has had more press conferences on the price of gasoline than on the "Great Evacuation." And he's probably even willing to take questions. 

This is the guy that killed the Keystone XL which has led Russia to being the number two supplier of crude oil for the US. Amazing.

But, the president would not be using the bully pulpit if he truly wasn't scared. It is very, very possible we will see shortages of gasoline in some locations this Labor Day weekend. 

And, oh by the way, this is Thursday. Labor Day weekend has already started for many. The government's efforts are way too late to make a difference. But it makes Resident Biden look presidential. Not really. 

Speaking of which, what was gasoline demand this past week? Link here.  Unremarkable. 

What is remarkable is this graph, especially taken in context that the Keystone XL was killed:

This is almost as good as this graph. These folks are earning nothing on their cash. In a bull market.

****************************
Perry Mason 

The case of the fraudulent foto. 

Without question, the best music ever. 

Best part of every Perry Mason episode: when Perry Mason takes Della Street out for dinner. Or lunch.

Something To Think About -- September 2, 2021

For the past six months, maybe longer, it's been widely reported there is a "deficit" in crude oil worldwide. I have no idea whether that is true, but that certainly, currently, is a meme: a crude oil deficit worldwide.

So, good news that OPEC+ will (gradually) increase production. 

The operative word: production.

I think this data point is accurate: US demand for crude oil is soaring. We're seeing similar stories worldwide, particularly in India. My hunch: the US and India are not islands of prosperity and growth. My hunch: demand for crude oil is soaring around the world.

Interestingly enough, I think folks forget that upwards of 50% of Saudi's production is consumed locally. 

There were reports that Russia's exports decreased m/m even as it delivered record amounts of crude oil to the United States. 

Resident Biden said he was "glad" to hear that "OPEC" was sticking to plans to increase production.

Head fake. 

Digression: how bad might the global crude oil deficit be? Generally, residents and presidents in the White House don't use the bully pulpit for things they are not concerned about. Prior to the debacle known as the "Great Evacuation," the lead story was Resident Biden asking OPEC to open the taps. That story disappeared when the Afghan evacuation began and Hurricane Ida hit. That speaks volumes. When a situation rises to the level that gets the resident's attention, it has to be serious. 

Back to the post.

As noted, I don't think the US and India are islands of prosperity and growth. My hunch is that Saudi Arabia's domestic consumption is also increasing. This sort of reminds me of the Red Queen. OPEC's gradual increase in production will be offset to some extent by domestic consumption.

Link here. 

Off The Net For Awhile -- Good Luck To All -- September 2, 2021

The Market -- Another Incredible Day Ahead Of Us -- September 2, 2021

Trolling:  

Letter from Harvard: natural immunity exponentially better than vaccine; puts "vaccine passports" in limbo. Link here. If this is from Harvard, it must be true.

Printer watch, local Target, total: twelve

• Canon, high-end color: increased from six to nine
• Epson, nice price point: down two, now none on shelf
• HP, unchanged, at one. A low-end Envy model
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

US equity indices: all four in the green in pre-market trading

• S&P 500, NASDAQ could hit new all-time records again
• AAPL: up $1.43, up almost 1% in pre-market trading
• AMZN: should change ticker symbol to CRZY 
• Bitcoin: big sure overnight; flirting with 50,000 again
• ARKK: holy mackerel, a $115 stock now trading at $125
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

SCOTUS: Texas fetal protection act -- 5-4 declined to issue emergency injunction; warning -- trolling follows --

• would have been a lopsided 6 - 3 had the "conservative" chief justice joined the majority
• I didn't understand my wife trying to explain the law (she gets her news from Rachel Maddow)
• in fact, very, very clever law: individuals deputize to report violations; $10,000 bounty
• historically, cattle-rustlers faced greater penalties than those performing third-trimester / post-delivery feticide
• unless I'm missing something, this stops "all" abortions as of today in Texas; US Congress would have to pass a federal civil rights law to push back the most recent ruling
• will lead to more calls to pack the court
• to conserve odd-number of justices, Biden would have to appoint even number of new justices: two or four -- two more is hardly packing the court; four is a bridge too far?
• a one-term president could pack the court following most successful evacuation in history
• a reader pointed out: this is not a setback for women -- the SCOTUS ruling on abortion; it's now agreed that this is no longer a binary world, and, even more remarkable, XX individuals can not become pregnant

NYC transportation: apparently got hit worse than Louisiana. Wow.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Japanese Delegation Touring North Dakota; And Then There's Denbury -- September 2, 2021

Montana: Calumet renewable diesel refinery on track; link here.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners has let a contract to Haldor Topsoe to deliver technology for a project to reconfigure a conventional hydrocracking plant for production of renewable diesel at a subsidiary's 30,000-b/d refinery in Great Falls, Mont.

North Dakota: Japanese delegation touring North Dakota, talking about hydrogen, carbon capture opportunities. Link here.

North Dakota’s developing hydrogen hub could attract more investment in the state. A Japanese delegation is touring oilfield sites in Dickinson and visiting Medora today as part of high-level discussion of future investment opportunities in the state’s carbon capture and utilization goals.

The delegation was to tour oilfield sites in northwestern North Dakota Wednesday, Sept. 1 as part of the discussion of opportunities, which began on Tuesday. The delegation is part of the Japanese External Trade Organization.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

DEN, flash: recent surge in price; Jim Cramer had Denbury/CEO on as featured guest about two weeks ago, maybe last week; Cramer "sold on" Denbury. Back in January, 2021, one could have picked up DEN for $28/share; yesterday, trading over $70/share.

Unemployment numbers today: yawn. Steve Liesman was worried there was going to be another spike due to the delta variant. Didn't happen. Numbers came in lower than expected. Folks anticipating loss of unemployment benefits? Going back to work? 

Mexico: things keep getting worse of Mexico's struggling oil industry. 

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Back to the Bakken

*Active rigs, updated numbers will appear COB:

$68.92	9/2/2021	09/02/2020	09/02/2019	09/02/2018	09/02/2017
Active Rigs	24*	10	64	63	56

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: making sense out of today's red-hot energy markets.

Energy markets are red hot and are showing no signs of cooling off anytime soon. Natural gas prices have soared 20% to $ 4.615/MMbtu in just the last couple of weeks and could soon breach $5/MMBtu. In the NGL market, propane prices are up to $1.17/gal, the highest level for the month of September since 2011, with the possibility of shortages threatening domestic suppliers this winter. Even crude oil has continued to find support near the $70/bbl range, providing remarkable drilling and completion economics for well-positioned E&Ps. All these markets are data-intensive, and it can be a challenge to keep up with the most important developments. That’s what our ClusterX app is all about. It delivers to your phone or browser everything we believe is important as soon as the information hits RBN databases. And it is free! In today’s blog, we’ll look at some of the key capabilities of ClusterX, including a number of new features we’ve added.  Warning: Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial for ClusterX.

LNG -- US Exports -- September 2, 2021

I started tracking the build-out of the US LNG export infrastructure back in late 2016, see this link. I remember the pushback I got from "anonymous" -- telling me that just because there were "plans," it didn't mean they would all come to fruition. Whatever. Simpletons. 

So, now this:

Reminder: how the shale revolution changed things. Link here.  Or go directly to this link at Gulf Times:

• the first liquefaction train of the Golden Pass LNG liquefication and export terminal in Sabine, Texas, a $10bn joint-venture formed by Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil, is scheduled to come online by 2024;

Notes From All Over -- Part 2, September 2, 2021

Covid-19:

• things are starting to become clear; it's always made sense; but it's become much more clear now; see most recent graphics and stats, linked below;
  
• the Dakotas are in panic mode: both governors tell us their hospitals are overwhelmed
• South Dakota's largest hospitals bracing for huge Covid-19 flow;
• North Dakota's governor Doug Burgum pleads;

Links to graphs:

• North Dakota;
• South Dakota;

Letter from Harvard: natural immunity exponentially better than vaccine; puts "vaccine passports" in limbo. Link here. If this is from Harvard, it must be true.

Letter from Portland, OR:

Covid is not good in Portland, OR, as you mentioned in the blog. 

Your article reminds me of the soldiers I just saw. 

This past Tuesday I [visited] Providence St. Vincent’s hospital in west Portland. 

Noticed some soldiers were in the lobby area, but I didn’t think much of it besides maybe they were visiting a buddy. Once I was inside the clinic I decided to ask how Covid was going within the hospital. A nurse told me that soldiers were onsite to help with the Covid situation, I assume National Guard but I’m not certain. I learned that the soldiers were constructing tent based units to house the patient overfill issues they’ve had since late July. 

A fully vaccinated guy I know at the grocery store told me he got Covid and that’s why he was out four weeks. He said he tried going to St. Vincent’s for Covid care but was refused so he went to Uptown Portland’s Good Samaritan hospital and got care. 

I didn’t ask how much care since people were waiting behind me in line. 

I wish the Mexico border was closed & heavily monitored. I believe the variants come in with the illegal folks. No masks, no screening, no vaccinations at all on many illegals. I won’t get going on open borders!

Note from local schools:

• we're seeing on average one student per day diagnosed with Covid-19 at the elementary school Sophia attends
• we're seeing on average one student per day diagnosed with Covid-19 at the high school where Olivia attends
• positive diagnoses mean nothing without additional information;

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 2, 2021

By the numbers:

• TYT: 1.292%, down 0.01
• WTI: $68.97; up about 0.55%; up about 38 cents;
• DXY: 92.45, unchanged;

Overnight:

• most under-reported number: implied US oil demand has surged -- EIA; not yet seeing the analysis
• pay attention to the chart at this post -- it's more than remarkable;
• 2019, pre-pandemic record: less than 22 million bpd; but the norm was around 20 mbpd
• September, 2021: trending toward 23 million bpd; huge jump started with summer driving, but recent surge is unprecedented (fact-check please)

Reminder: how the shale revolution changed things. Link here.  Or go directly to this link at Gulf Times:

• the first liquefaction train of the Golden Pass LNG liquefication and export terminal in Sabine, Texas, a $10bn joint-venture formed by Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil, is scheduled to come online by 2024;

Baxter: up in pre-trading; will buy Hill-Rom Holdings for $10.5 billion; no links, story everywhere;

Auto anxiety: Nissan has delayed the restart of its Tennessee automotive plant for another two weeks; link her; direct link here;

• yes, chip shortage, again;
• article also updates Ford and Stellantis, both recently announcing additional production cuts;
• but, let's think about that for a moment; if I remember, I will come back to this one;
• I'm seeing an opportunity here

Iraq: the story continues;

• Iraq at risk of power shortages
• Iran reduced gas supply
  

Taking Inventory -- Where Are We Today? -- Commentary -- September 2, 2021

Overnight:

• most under-reported number: implied US oil demand has surged -- EIA; not yet seeing the analysis
• pay attention to the chart at this post -- it's more than remarkable;
• 2019, pre-pandemic record: less than 22 million bpd; but the norm was around 20 mbpd
• September, 2021: trending toward 23 million bpd; huge jump started with summer driving, but recent surge is unprecedented (fact-check please)
• incredibly interesting data point, which I will come back to later: OPEC+ crude exports fell 1.1 million bpd in August m/m; link here;

Energy:

• Europe in deep doo-doo: energy prices rising faster than ever expected
• Russia controls natural gas, Nordstreeam 2
• Groningen days are coming to an end;
  
• US:
• current administration hates fossil fuel
• even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
  
• OPEC / Russia in control (again)
• Keystone XL killed; this will come back to haunt us; no one will connect the dots;
  
• Russia becomes second biggest source of imported oil for US
• did we mention: even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
• obvious that wind / solar can't possible meet demand

War is over

• we'll give this one more day, then time to move on
• that's a biggie; it's not Vietnam but it's still a biggie; in some regards it might be bigger than Vietnam:
• US intel community: circular firing squad
  

Hurricane Ida:

• we'll give this one more day, then time to move on
• a regional story, that's all

Covid-19:

• things are starting to become clear;
• the Dakotas are in panic mode: both governors tell us their hospitals are overwhelmed
• South Dakota's largest hospitals bracing for huge Covid-19 flow;
• North Dakota's governor Doug Burgum pleads;
  

Investors:

• the bull market continues; maybe more than ever
• NASDAQ up 116 points; Dow and S&P 500 up a bit, not much
• AAPL: hits an intra-day high; still lags the market
• trading
• tax plan in Congress hits obstacle; Heidi Heitkamp leading opposition charge;
• if they can't pass this tax bill, nothing much will pass?

SCOTUS 5 - 4 — September 1, 2021

 https://twitter.com/search?q=%22Supreme%20Court%22&src=trend_click&pt=1433288334839746566&vertical=trends