Thursday, September 2, 2021

Taking Inventory -- Where Are We Today? -- Commentary -- September 2, 2021

Overnight:

  • most under-reported number: implied US oil demand has surged -- EIA; not yet seeing the analysis
  • pay attention to the chart at this post -- it's more than remarkable;
    • 2019, pre-pandemic record: less than 22 million bpd; but the norm was around 20 mbpd
    • September, 2021: trending toward 23 million bpd; huge jump started with summer driving, but recent surge is unprecedented (fact-check please)
  • incredibly interesting data point, which I will come back to later: OPEC+ crude exports fell 1.1 million bpd in August m/m; link here;

Energy:

  • Europe in deep doo-doo: energy prices rising faster than ever expected
    • Russia controls natural gas, Nordstreeam 2
    • Groningen days are coming to an end;
  • US:
    • current administration hates fossil fuel
    • even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
    • OPEC / Russia in control (again)
    • Keystone XL killed; this will come back to haunt us; no one will connect the dots;
    • Russia becomes second biggest source of imported oil for US
    • did we mention: even as fossil fuel demand is soaring in the US
      • obvious that wind / solar can't possible meet demand

War is over

  • we'll give this one more day, then time to move on
  • that's a biggie; it's not Vietnam but it's still a biggie; in some regards it might be bigger than Vietnam:
  • US intel community: circular firing squad

Hurricane Ida:

  • we'll give this one more day, then time to move on
  • a regional story, that's all

Covid-19:

Investors:

  • the bull market continues; maybe more than ever
  • NASDAQ up 116 points; Dow and S&P 500 up a bit, not much
  • AAPL: hits an intra-day high; still lags the market
  • trading
  • tax plan in Congress hits obstacle; Heidi Heitkamp leading opposition charge;
  • if they can't pass this tax bill, nothing much will pass?

2 comments:

  1. A golden cross in oil futures indicate a 20 to 50 % upside in price.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I missed the golden cross. Thank you.

      It's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil, but I'm seeing the same thing you are seeing: a significant increase in price of oil is predicted by the tea leaves.

      Delete

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