Two (2) New Permits -- A Very Nice Hess Well (prior -- AEZ) -- North Dakota, USA

Producers: Whiting and Petro-Hunt.

Fields: Elkhorn Ranch (southwest area of the state) and North Tioga.

Several wells released from confidential status: all mediocre based on IPs, except for an American Oil and Gas (AEZ) well now owned by Hess:

• 19199, 1,248, Hodenfield 15-7H, Bakken. This was a wildcat in "prime" AEZ acreage, now part of Hess' Goliath prospect, 7.5 miles northwest of Ray.

World Oil Supply Tightening, Demand Increasing; Estimates Revised Upward

IEA (Paris-based), raised oil estimates:

• 2010 (last year): up 2.7 million bopd more than 2009, to 87.7 million bopd
• 2011: 89.1 million bopd

Chinese demand reached a new record high last November at 10.2 million b/d, largely on rising gas oil use, accounting for roughly half of Asia’s increase and for almost a third of total non-OECD growth.

The call for OPEC crude is revised upward for 2011 to 29.9 million b/d from last year’s 29.6 million b/d, and IEA notes that OPEC’s effective spare production capacity has dipped below 5 million b/d for the first time in 2 years. 

In the fourth quarter of 2010, oil markets tightened as demand outweighed supply by 700,000 b/d, IEA said. Recent price strength, notably for international benchmark crude Brent, poses an economic risk, the agency warns, if $100/bbl oil becomes entrenched this year.

And Japan's imports rose 11 percent in November compared to year earlier.

Great New AEZ Well -- It's a Hess Well Now -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

19199, 1,248, AEZ (Hess), Hodenfield 15-7H, Wildcat, Bakken.

Electricity Out at Bismarck -- Capital, North Dakota

For those who have not been able to connect to NDIC's website today: apparently they lost electricity the entire day at the capitol. Electricity may not be back on until this evening (Tuesday, January 18, 2011).

I knew they should not have switched over to wind power.

[Update: electricity is back on at the Capitol; Tuesday night, January 18, 2011.]

Gramma Sharon's in the Heart of the Bakken -- Celebrates 25 Years

Link here. It's in a regional newspaper so the link will be broken soon.

Gramma Sharon's family restaurant celebrated 25 years of service on Monday by offering 25-cent cookies and free coffee and cake.

The restaurant was originally located north of town in the Conoco Truck stop where Lonnie's Roadhouse Cafe currently resides. They moved to their new location at 1501 16th Street West in 2002.

"Gramma" Sharon Blotsky retired in 2006 and her daughter Penny Groth, who has worked in the restaurant for 20 years, took over the business.

Next Enbridge Links in North Dakota -- Increase of 145K BOPD -- North Dakota, USA

The North Dakota Public Service Commission will be holding meetings on Enbridge's Bakken Pipeline Project U.S. and Beaver Lodge Project Loop. (Regional newspaper; link will be broken in a couple of days.)

• 26-mile pipeline from Beaver Lodge Station (Tioga) to Stanley, North Dakota
• 29-mile pipeline from Stanley to Berthold

Capacity: would increased Enbridge's pipeline capacity in the region by 145,000 bopd by early 2013.

NDIC Home Page Has Been Down All Day -- North Dakota, USA (Oil)

What more can I say?

I will post permits, etc., as soon as I can get to the NDIC home page.

Bakken Podcast

This could not be simpler.

At the very top of the sidebar to the right is the link to the Bakken podcast, something new from "Wild Bill." (No connection with this site.)

Simply click on that link and go from there.

SeekingAlpha: Appraisal of the Bakken -- A Must Read

Link here.

A must read for all those interested in the Bakken,

The title and thesis of the article: the author questions whether the Bakken might be the model for worldwide development of shale oil just as the Barnett was for natural gas.

Some data points from that article.

Barnett shale

• Inspired one of the fastest growing energy industries ever created in North America
• On the verge of propelling a multinational industry
• Barnett inspired the dry gas industry but also inspired a sub-industry based on the unsuspected liquids window in the gassy shales
• The production of gas liquids and oil from these liquids windows is spreading across several basins in North America
• Mostly likely this will lead to US liquids production being higher at the end of the decade than it is now (contrary to "Peak Oil theorists").

Question: could the Bakken be the "Barnett" of the oil shales

Colorado "oil shales"

• Misnamed
• Kerogen shales
• Production is a water and energy intensive mining and retorting industry
• Kerogen shales have been well studied for decades
• Found in over 40 countries worldwide (large reserves in US, Russia, China, Jordan, Israel, Morocco)
• Kerogen shales: substitutes for coal, not crude oil.
• A central power plant fuel, not a transportation fuel.
• Not economical to transform kerogen in to fuel oil compared to converting natural gas and/or coal

North Dakota and Alberta Bakken

• True oil shales
• Production is drilling -- horizontal, multi-stage fracking
• Oil shales have not been studied for decades as kerogen shales have

The Next Bakkens

North Dakota Bakken

• Official estimate: 11 billion barrels (previous estimate: 4.3 billion barrels)
• CLR estimate: 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil
• US govt: estimates that total US crude reserves at the end of 2009 were only 21 billion barrels
• Estimate: 170 billion barrels of oil in place in North Dakota

Australia

• Georgina Basin: may be similar to the Bakken
• Exploratory wells have been drills
• Estimates: 5 - 11 billion barrels in one locale in the Southern Georgina
• The Arthur Creek shale formation in the Southern Georgina is very similar to the Bakken but about 5 times the thickness
• All 18 exploratory wells drilled so far have shown oil
• Another "Bakken" may have been discovered; 15 - 18 months before we know

France

• Paris Basin
• Covers the northern half of France and extends into neighboring countries
• Vintage oil and gas basin: over 2,000 wells drilled and 52 oil fields discovered
• Three oil shale formations: Lower Lias, Amaltheus, and Schistes Carton
• Current focus: Lower Lias -- current estimate -- tens of billions of barrels
• Other two formations: significantly higher estimates
• Companies involved: Vermillion Energy, Realm Energy, Torreador Resources (partnered with Hess)
• Estimate of oil in place 100 billion barrels from source rock; 30 billion in the Lower Lias
• Torreador will drill 6 wells in the Paris Basis in 2011: 2 vertical, 2 horizontal, 2 combination

Bottom Line

• In less than 2 years we should know whether there are other "Bakkens" outside North America

"Lost Decade" -- Not a Bakken Story

I've been using the phrase "lost decade" for some time now. In fact, you can see it at the bottom of the sidebar on the right -- in the "bubble" of "tags" or "key words."

It turns out that someone else is using the same phrase.

"I have long believed that a lost economic decade was an inevitable consequence of the gross mismanagement of central banks," a financial analyst wrote in note to clients.

One can argue that it was due to mismanagement of central banks, but much of the slow growth and outright recession was due, at last in my mind, in the energy policies of the past decade. Certainly the energy policies contributed to making the recession worst. Just my opinion.

Green Energy Can't Power Jobs Market: We've Been Saying That For The Past Year

Harvard study confirms what we've been saying for more than a year.

The present administration takes it's guidance from Harvard. This study, in the New York Times, from Harvard, is a huge story.

Wind and solar companies laying off folks and/or shutting down completely, despite huge government subsidies, grants, and tax breaks. Even coal-powered cars are being sold at a loss and aren't cost effective until oil is between $174 and $250 per barrel.

Later, if I remember I will link this post to something posted here some months ago about wind energy's failure in producing jobs.

[Note: I published the above story on January 19, 2011. Later that evening I ran across this story, dateline January 18, 2011, LA Times.  This story was obviously a news release and not a news story. Note that raw numbers of jobs is not provided, but note, more importantly, how old the data is. Generally they are comparing 2009 data with 2008 data. When the 2010 data is published by the same group in 2016 the facts will come out.]

New Mission For Grand Forks AFB -- Unmanned Aerial Vehicles -- Not a Bakken Story

This is another huge story for North Dakota, and great news.

Shaffer said the base has a total population of about 3,500 people, which includes about 1,800 active duty personnel and their families. The base will lose another 50 or so active duty personnel by the end of the month as they’re transferred to other bases.

But 460 additional active duty personnel are set to be permanently assigned to Grand Forks between now and Oct. 1 as the base gears up for its unmanned aircraft mission. All together, Shaffer said the base could see its population grow by about 1,000 in the next year.

The base’s KC-135 Stratotanker mission for the past 50 years ended in early December.

Holiday Inn Coming to Williston -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

88-room Holiday Inn to be built at 415 38th Avenue West.

That's where all the other major motels and inns are located in Williston -- just north of the airport, to the west of Million Dollar Way.

With that news, I wonder if I've been too tepid regarding my thoughts about the Bakken.