A Lot Of Memories -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46228ARCHIVES.

I was born in Bismarck, ND, in 1951.

Two years later, our family of four moved Williston, and eventually became a family of eight.

I graduated from Williston High School, 1969, the best year for:

• music; and,
• muscle cars

The Lewis and Clark Bridge southwest of Williston:

The original two lane Lewis and Clark Bridge in Williston was built in 1927. Set 50 feet upstream from the current bridge location, its predecessor was a pontoon bridge built in 1916.

After a flood took out the pontoon bridge, the first steel bridge was constructed.

This version of the Lewis and Clark was a very steel-heavy structure compared with the current bridge.

In 1973, a new bridge was constructed to keep up with traffic demand and the weight of larger, more modern trucks.

The bridge is 36 feet wide and 1,530 feet long. During construction, crews used 228 tons of concrete and eleven hundred tons of steel to build the bridge. The ribbon cutting for the new bridge was held in November 1973. State and local leaders were present to cut the ribbon, and the dedication ceremony included a cannon salute and several marching selections by the local American Legion Drum and Bugle Corps.

Soon after the completion of the modern bridge, the previous bridge was demolished.

My dad was a Williams County Commissioner when the bridge was dedicated, and spoke at the 1973 dedication. I missed the dedication; I was in college, Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD.

The map of the Williston area now:

********************
Williston Memories

Outside of my family the individual that had the most influence on my high school years, and perhaps my entire life: "Jo" Ashmore. She died in 2017. Wow, what a story. I did not know. When I came across this, the "story" hit me like a ton of bricks. Think of the most important person in your life in high school, multiply the feelings you have for that individual by ten and you might come close to the thoughts I have about Ms Ashmore. I'm sure I would not have accomplished half the things I accomplished in life without her mentorship. Wow, I had a great high school experience.

Link here. Archived.

Two MRO Wells In Bailey Oil Field With Second Jump In Production -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46227MRO.

From November 6, 2023:

MRO DUCs reported as completed:

• 38017, 3,437, MRO, Bean USA 31-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 134K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	28352	28348	41725	31125	30782	249
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	30991	30943	52879	31778	31580	88
BAKKEN	7-2023	30	36125	36164	67681	35650	35300	226
BAKKEN	6-2023	23	38060	37924	113255	36156	35589	426

• 38018, 4,244, MRO, Borrud USA 3441-18H, Bailey, t--; cum 105K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	35736	35664	36612	39447	39013	315
BAKKEN	8-2023	20	24817	24819	26554	26083	25920	73
BAKKEN	7-2023	25	44167	44049	63421	36580	36226	228

• 38019, 2,695, MRO, Chester USA 41-18TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 101K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	29453	29439	45440	31706	31357	253
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	30198	30158	54757	30385	30196	84
BAKKEN	7-2023	29	37688	37600	70843	37714	37343	239
BAKKEN	6-2023	23	3712	3699	11239	3546	3490	42

• 30548, PNC/A --> 2,034--> conf, MRO, Juliet 14-8TFH, Bailey, npd;

Wells of interest:

• 17357, 503, MRO, David Beck USA 24-7H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 523K 9/23;

recent production; note produciton jumpt:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	11118	11195	13941	23495	21626	416
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	17325	17470	24026	31817	27877	2179
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	23308	23285	34210	34673	29385	3146
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	25277	25190	48796	28482	25856	949
BAKKEN	5-2023	27	26217	26198	80336	26610	21719	1144
BAKKEN	4-2023	13	10696	10219	79175	10368	7929	1189
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	1	3	131	57	5	0	5
BAKKEN	12-2022	18	647	727	404	1521	1354	10
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	1639	1574	837	2801	2462	25
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	2078	2137	1161	4114	3620	115
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	2241	2362	1174	3223	2831	23
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	1964	2104	1039	2570	2038	172

 Another production jump back in 2015:

BAKKEN	1-2015	31	12912	12732	5367	11323	7407	2348
BAKKEN	12-2014	11	4503	4354	2338	2446	19	1916
BAKKEN	11-2014	4	147	222	22	88	13	54
BAKKEN	10-2014	23	4733	4988	2433	2736	21	2097
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	7716	7716	4724	4442	235	3211
BAKKEN	8-2014	27	12628	12131	4460	8305	3768	3040
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	6	160	456	46	303	109	150
BAKKEN	4-2014	29	1078	1107	245	1012	64	664
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	1205	1145	272	675	0	360
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	1083	932	246	1061	715	62
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	1234	1407	247	1219	831	70
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	1251	1145	293	1148	529	433
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	1214	1136	276	933	456	297
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	1266	1397	302	1252	837	229
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	1245	1120	297	1301	994	127
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	1246	1333	309	1324	829	313

Initial production back in 2008 -- 15 years ago -- and still going better than ever --

BAKKEN	5-2009	31	3509	3569	790	2463	2463	0
BAKKEN	4-2009	30	3892	3938	875	2746	2746	0
BAKKEN	3-2009	31	4699	4693	917	3245	3245	0
BAKKEN	2-2009	23	4119	4110	962	2157	2157	0
BAKKEN	1-2009	31	4281	4473	96	2476	2476	0
BAKKEN	12-2008	13	5556	5006	0	545	545	0

 Another well with jump in production

• 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, t12/08; cum 443K 9/23; recent production; it also had a second jump in production in 2015::

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	12831	12824	57126	13548	13330	181
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	10036	10082	46841	10320	10233	52
BAKKEN	7-2023	17	13613	13533	83099	13503	13317	128
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1336	1396	670	2696	2286	112
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1244	1236	573	2406	1943	187
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1181	1099	567	2334	1754	301
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	961	985	439	1910	1595	96
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	1242	1270	569	2428	2057	89
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	1299	1240	612	2521	2023	197

Enerplus Wells Sited In Lot 1 - Section 3 - 148 - 94 -- "The Wild Kingdom" -- An Update -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46226ERF.

These wells are tracked here; this page won't be updated.

The wells:

• 36274, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF, Phaelon Butte:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	26905	27707
8-2023	0	21

• 36275, PNC/EXP--->conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-2H-TF, Phaelens Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	37638	33864
8-2023	96	86

• 36276, drl/NC-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Lemur 148-94-03B-10H-TF, McGregory Buttes, npd,
• 36277, PNC/EXP-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Gazelle 148-94-03A-10H, McGregory Buttes, npd,
• 36278, PNC/EXP-->loc, Enerplus, Fossa 149-93-31D-30H-LL, Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	35089	35856

• 36279, PNC/EXP-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Aardwolf 148-94-03A-10H, McGregory Buttes, npd;
• 36280, PNC/EXP-->loc-->conf, Enerplus, Meerkat 149-93-31D-30H, Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	12339	13570

• 36281, PNC/EXP-->loc/loc, Enerplus, Elephant 148-94-03A-10H-TF, McGregory Buttes, npd;
• 36282, PNC/EXP-->loc-->conf, Enerplus, Warthog 149-93-31D-30H- TF, Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	13632	10329

• 36283, PNC/EXP-->loc/PNC, Enerplus, Zebra 148-94-03A-10H-TF-LL, McGregory Buttes, npd,

The maps:

Re-Fracking In The Bakken -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46224MRO.

Previously posted: #17064.

Well of interest:

• 17064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 517K 9/23:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	26634	26543	36439	22634	22230	302
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	13935	13866	40144	12705	12600	47
BAKKEN	7-2023	8	2055	2044	22354	2784	2748	23
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	4	125	266	79	263	125	111
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1284	1278	612	2876	2537	54
BAKKEN	12-2022	28	1075	1033	546	2793	2492	43
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	1217	1257	617	3124	2729	109

So, what did the production look like before the above posted?

A jump in production back in 2015:

BAKKEN	4-2015	30	8911	8909	3168	6860	4942	785
BAKKEN	3-2015	26	10116	10264	4381	7052	4553	1266
BAKKEN	2-2015	19	9235	9203	4075	6240	4106	1036
BAKKEN	1-2015	20	6508	6699	3172	4227	2645	766
BAKKEN	12-2014	21	9954	9763	3854	6678	4717	770
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	6	168	235	22	164	92	21
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	918	676	151	867	534	55
BAKKEN	8-2014	30	929	1139	172	766	305	187
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	954	1109	175	944	614	42
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	917	679	180	937	592	67
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	950	892	192	1054	735	31
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	920	1128	177	1047	737	32
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	975	906	195	1130	806	34
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	906	922	185	988	681	42
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	998	932	254	1108	731	84

Compare with production when it all began in 2008:

BAKKEN	2-2009	28	3591	3485	423	1867	1867	0
BAKKEN	1-2009	29	4093	4059	458	2123	2123	0
BAKKEN	12-2008	31	4531	5094	438	1468	1468	0
BAKKEN	11-2008	30	4858	4474	511	3005	3005	0
BAKKEN	10-2008	31	5586	5569	599	3311	3311	0
BAKKEN	9-2008	30	6421	6757	683	3693	3693	0
BAKKEN	8-2008	31	7983	7519	737	4920	4920	0
BAKKEN	7-2008	23	8024	7934	592	3897	3897	0
BAKKEN	6-2008	26	8263	8311	1490	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2008	9	551	228	118	0	0	0

Enbridge -- Great Lakes Tunnel -- Update -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46223ENB.

Link here.

PSX -- For Investors -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46222PSX.

From Barron's, so you know it has to be good.

A little activism from Elliott Management nudged Phillips 66 stock to a record close, and if the firm gets its way, there may be more upside ahead.

But while Elliott criticized Phillips 66’s underperformance and missteps in a letter to the company’s board, it appeared to be supportive of plans laid out by Chief Executive Mark Lashier, which include selling some $3 billion of noncore assets and planning to return more capital to shareholders. Still, Elliott believes Phillips 66 could use more prodding and is seeking two seats on the board.

Elliott believes Phillips 66 shares could advance 75%. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

This Adds Nothing To The Discussion -- December 2, 2023

 Locator: 46222ECON.

Link here.

Oil Price Volatility -- Explained -- Sort Of -- December 2, 2023

 Locator: 46221OIL.

Both of these articles are behind a paywall. One is from Bloomberg and the other is from The WSJ. 

From The WSJ -- again this article is a year old but nothing has changed.

It has been a tough year (2022) for oil traders. Even the computers haven’t been able to get it right consistently. Wall Street is closely tracking firms that use trend-following algorithms to trade oil futures, which profited mightily from betting on higher prices as crude climbed to more than $120 per barrel this spring. But with oil falling bumpily since June, the trend-followers have waffled between bullish and bearish wagers and given some of those profits back.

Analysts are blaming them for amplifying oil’s wild price swings. Traders are monitoring them to steer clear of the waves they make in the market. Investors are mimicking them for profit. And this year’s oil-price roller-coaster ride is putting their logic to the test.

Recent research from Goldman Sachs cited so-called commodity trading advisers for intensifying a recent five-week slide in which oil dropped nearly 23%. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, landed at a recent low around $79 a barrel, close to where it started the year.

Commodity trading adviser, or CTA, is industry jargon for a hedge fund that uses computer algorithms to divine and follow price trends, typically by comparing recent prices to their average over a previous period. Despite their name, CTAs trade futures on currencies, stocks, and bonds in addition to commodities such as oil.

Like previous ones, “the most recent selloff, has also been associated with substantial CTA liquidations,” says Daniel Ghali, senior commodities strategist at TD Securities.

Bottom line: CTAs have no emotion, do not read financial statements, do not follow politics, do not know the difference between computer chips and potato chips. They simply track price changes over time... from as short a period as one minute to as long as years. 

Chart Of The Day -- December 2, 2023

Locator: 46220TECH.

Before we get to the chart, from MarketBeat a few days ago:

My reply: who cares?

This reminds me of a story. Almost two decades ago (?) an insurance agent, who clearly did not have my interests in mind, made a suggestion with regard to insurance. His suggestion was very, very, very enticing. But his suggestion was really all about the insurance company and not about my family. 

I was given two options: my current insurance plan -- quite involved, and quite robust -- or this guy's new suggestion -- simple, but new (no history on which to judge) -- so two options. In his mind, the insurance agent's mind, it was a binary choice: I could stay with my plan with was awesome, or go with his plan which might be even more awesome. The monthly premium would not change.

I honestly did not know what to do. Then I slept on it, as they say.

I made the best decision ever. LOL. I doubled my monthly premium -- I kept the awesome plan that I already had and bought the insurance agent's plan which turned out to be awesome, also. In one respect, his plan was better; in another respect, my original insurance plan was better.

Because of the way the two plans are "configured," one cannot compare "dollars-and-cents" return of one plan with the other. But instead of one awesome plan, I have two awesome plans.

Now back to the daily chart.

MSFT and BRK have both been around a long time.

One year ago and five years ago we all had the same information on MSFT and BRK.

Hindsight is 20/20:

By the way, speaking of Microsoft vs Nvidia vs Berkshire, right now, today, as we speak, 50% of the BRK equity portfolio is in one ticker: AAPL. So, in a sense, if one were to re-phrase the discussion, it could quickly become Microsoft vs Nvidia vs Apple, Inc.

BRKpays no dividends and under current management, never will.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Parting shot(s):

Peter Lynch, famously, had 20.