How Bored Are Americans With The Democrat Party Debates? -- December 19, 2019

Yes, I realize it's still early -- 9:47 p.m. ET, December 19, 2019, but certainly there's been enough time for folks to have seen enough of the debate to make up their minds. But here it is, 9:47 p.m. ET and all of 111 people have voted over on Drudge.

One hundred eleven people. You have got to be kidding.

This is an interesting data point:

And it looks like the first time the US has ended with an impeachment and no trial.

XTO's Injectivity Tests In Bear Creek -- December 19, 2019

From the January, 2020, NDIC hearing dockets. 

These are cases, not permits, in Bear Creek:

• 28243, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust 44X-34G, #29673, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28244, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust 44X-34C, #29672, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28245, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust 44X-34H, #18294, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28246, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, #32479, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28247, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 44X-34D, #29871, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28248, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 21X-3F-N, #32367, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28249, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 21X-3B-N, #32366, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28250, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, WerreTrust Federal 14X-34E, #32480, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;  

The XTO Werre Trust and Werre Trust Federal wells are tracked here. 

If one googles XTO oil injectivity test one will find any number of PDF research papers. It sounds like the jury is still out regarding "injectivity." It will be interesting what XTO "discovers." Not sure yet if this will be CO2 or natural gas injection. My hunch it is the latter, natural gas.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Yesterday, He Was A Clear And Dangerous Threat To US Security -- Today, Simply An Impeached President Who May Never Stand Trial -- December 19, 2019

Politics: now we know why the US House rushed through the Articles of Impeachment as fast as they did. LOL. Members had to catch planes to get home for the holidays. Less than 24 hours after voting to impeach the president -- said to be a clear and dangerous threat to US security -- the chairperson pockets the articles; obfuscates her intentions; and, the US House adjourns for the year. The US Senate, not getting the articles from the US House, also adjourned for the year. Except for an impeached judge about a decade ago, this is unprecedented, that a call for impeachment did not lead directly to immediate trial. Yesterday the US House found Trump so dangerous to national security, they impeach him; today they go on break for at least two weeks. Am I spelling "hypocritical" correctly? I've never seen the nation treated so shabbily by the lower house.

Christmas, Baby Please Come Home, Darlene Love
Two hours of Darlene Love and David Letterman: link here. Thank goodness for YouTube, the "Smithsonian" for music, movies, and television.

Market: all three major indices hit new all-time highs.

Student debt, national: two data points I heard today -- and an observation --

• the data points
• 44 million Americans hold $1.5 trillion in student debt
• an undergraduate education is said to be worth $45,000/year in salary (a person with an undergraduate degree on average is said to earn $45,000/year more than a person without an undergraduate degree)
• the observation: 
• back to that first data point: $1.5 trillion / 44 million = $34,000 (average)
• if the "average" college graduate lived like a non-college graduate, for example a person working at McDonald's), the loan could be paid off in one year.

Comment: I don't have a dog in this fight. I no longer care one way or the other but it sure is fun to see how folks get so worked up over something so trivial in the big scheme of things. Things that seem a bit more important perhaps. Homelessness. Opiod crisis. Affordable and accessible health care for all.

Twenty Permits Renewed; Newfield With Six New Permits; Relentlessly, WTI Keeps Climbing, Albeit In Very Small Steps -- December 19, 2019

Active rigs:

$61.04	12/19/2019	12/19/2018	12/19/2017	12/19/2016	12/19/2015
Active Rigs	53	68	54	41	64

Six new permits, #37272 - #37277, inclusive --

• Operator: Newfield
• Field: Siverston (McKenzie County)
• Comments:  
• Newfield has six permits in section 21-150-97, Siverston oil field

Two permits reinstated:

• Whiting (2): two Klose permits in McKenzie County;

Twenty permits renewed:

• NP Resources (6): six Roosevelt Federal permits in Billings County;
• CLR (6): six Chloe permits, Williams County;
• Petro Harvester (3): a Miller permit and two LIG1 permits, all in Burke County;
• BR (2): a Manchester permit, Dunn County; and, an Ole permit, McKenzie County;
• Lime Rock Resources III-1, LP (2): a Kary permit and a State permit, both in Dunn County;
• Whiting: a Green permit, McKenzie County;

January, 2020, Hearing Dockets Are Posted

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

Link here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Four Pages 

The cases:

• 28193, Bruin, Elm Tree-Bakken, twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 28/33-153-93; McKenzie, Mountrail counties
• 28194, BR,Twin Valley-Bakken, one well on an existing 1280; a reduced-length lateral (only section 17; won't penetrate section 20-152-97; McKenzie;
• 28195, Oasis, revoke an Equinor permit, #37207, Williams County
• 28196, Hess, commingling,
• 28197, Hess, commingling,
• 28198, Hess, commingling,
• 28199, Oasis, pooling,
• 28200, MRO,  commingling,
• 28201, MRO, commingling,
• 28202, MRO, commingling,
• 28203, True Oil LLC, flaring, McKenzie County;
• 28204, BR, Little Knife-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-147-97; Dunn County
• 28205, BR, Little Knife-Bakken, two wells on a 2560-acre unit, Dunn County;

Thursday, January 16, 2020 

Eleven Pages 

The cases:

• 28206, Kraken, to revoke a Whiting permit, #37189, and #37190, Feehan wells; Mountrail;
• 28207, EOG, Squaw Creek-Bakken; establish three overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells on each; McKenzie;
• 28208, EOG, Painted Woods-Baken; establish an overlapping 2560 unit; two wells on that unit; Williams County;
• 28209, Peregrine Petroleum Partners, Ltd, Rough Rider-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; three wells on that unit; McKenzie County;
• 28210, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken; exception to field rules; setback rules; Dunn County;
• 28211, CLR, Jim Creek and/or Rattlesnake Point-Bakken; establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; two wells on each; Dunn County;
• 28212, Iron Oil Operating, LLC, Buffalo Wallow-Bakken, thirteen wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, section 17/18/19/20 - 148-100, McKenzie County
• 28213, Iron Oil Operating, LLC, Sather Lake-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County
• 28214, Iron Oil Operating, LLC, Boxcar Butte-Bakken; establish i) an overlapping 1920-acre unit; six wells on that unit; ii) a 1920-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County;
• 28215, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 640-acre unit; E/2 of section 9 and the W/2 of section 10-149-92; one well; Dunn County;
• 28216, Enerplus, Mandaree-Bakken; setback rules; field rules; Dunn County;
• 28217, K T Enterprises, LLC, treating plant, McKenzie County;
• 28218, K T Enterprises, LLC, SWD well to be utilized for fracture injection into the Broom Creek Formation in a well to b known as the K T Enterprises 34-222 SF1 well, located in section 22-150-96; Johnson Corner field, McKenzie County;
• 28219,KT Enterprises, LLC, 34-22 SF1 well to be drill in section 22-150-96; see case #28218; McKenzie County;
• 28220, WM of ND Energy Disposal Solutions, LLC, treating plant, McKenzie County;
• 28221, WM of ND energy Disposal Solutions, LLC, drilling of a saltwater disposal wells to be utilized for fracture injection into the Dakota Group in a well to be known as the Blue Buttes 1 well to be located in section 35-151-96; Blue Buttes field, McKenzie County;
• 28222, WM of ND Energy Disposal Solutions, LLC, for the Blue Buttes 1 well to be drilled in section 35-151-96; see case #28221; McKenzie County;
• 28223, WM of ND Energy Disposal Solutions, LLC, drilling of a saltwater disposal well to be utilized for fracture injections into the Dakota Group in a well knows as the Blue Butte 2 well; sectio 35-151-96; McKenzie County;
• 28224,  WM of ND Energy Disposal Solutions, commission to determine the amount of bond to be required of WM of ND Energy Disposal Solutions, LLC, for the Blue Buttes 2 well; McKenzie County;
• 28225, legalese, Benjamin J. Larson vs EOG; Liberty 35-1413H, #31429; Mountrail County;
• 28226, Resonance Explortation, pooling,
• 28227, Newfield, pooling,
• 28228, WPX, pooling,
• 28229, Nine Point Energy, pooling,
• 28230, Kraken, Sanish-Bakken, five wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 4/5-153-92; Mountrai County;
• 28231, EOG, commingling,
• 28232, Windridge Operating, LLC, flaring, Lignite-Madison pool, Nelson Unit 1 well, #16220, Burke County;
• 28233, Windridge, flaring, Sandpiper State 35-26 B1H well; #34320, Burke County;
• 28234, Windridge, flaring, Kestrel State 36-25 1H well; #34171; Burke County;
• 28235, Equinor, pooling,
• 28236, Equinor, pooling,
• 28237, CLR, pooling,
• 28238, CLR, pooling,
• 28239, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, eight wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units, sections 26/35-141-99; and, 27/34-141-99, Billings County;
• 28240, NDIC commission, Cedar Hills Field, conversion to EOR into the Cedar Hills South and North-Red River "B" units, of the Sophia 34-12NH well, #15319; Bowman County;
• 28241, CLR, Cedar Hills Field, Cedar Hills South and North-Red River "B" units, Sophia 32-12NH, file #15319, section 12-131-107, Bowman County;
• 28242, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34A, #32481, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28243, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust 44X-34G, #29673, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28244, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust 44X-34C, #29672, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28245, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust 44X-34H, #18294, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28246, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, #32479, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28247, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 44X-34D, #29871, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28248, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 21X-3F-N, #32367, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28249, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, Werre Trust Federal 21X-3B-N, #32366, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County;
• 28250, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, WerreTrust Federal 14X-34E, #32480, injectivity test of that well; Dunn County; 

S&P 500 Hits All-Time High -- Again -- December 19, 2019

Politics: apparently the polls show several things right now after the US House failed bipartisan support for impeachment of the president:

• swing states now swinging to Trump; they had been turning away from Trump but the swing states seems to be turning to Trump; 
• very interesting: earlier polls showed nearly "every" Democrat running for president beating Trump in head-to-head polls; now those same polls show Trump beating every Democrat
• most interesting: Gallup shows Trump's popularity rising 6 points pre/post-impeachment
• my hunch: if these polls are accurate, and I'm not convinced that they are, but if they are accurate, this has to be Pelosi's greatest fear: that once the US Senate votes to exonerate the president, his popularity will surge even more
• the crawler says that the US House may not even send the articles of impeachment to the US Senate; I think most agree she can't hold them forever but the longer she holds them, the shorter the trial, and worst fear: exoneration during the DNC convention? during the RNC convention? at the peak of the campaign in September-October?

Market: S&P 500 hits a new all-time high.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market: I can't keep up. Now it's being reported that the NASDAQ has hit a new all-time high.

Dow: now up 132 points in late morning trading. The real question is how high will the Dow go -- after the day the US House failed bipartisan support for impeachment of the president.

For the archives, student loan issue:

Trump will co-opt the Democrats on student loan debt. His administration is proposing exactly what I suggested months (maybe, years?) ago. If politicians were really serious about student loan debt, instead of talking about policies that won't ever see the light of day, they would go after the low-hanging fruit. And the low-hanging fruit? Reduce the interest rates students are paying on their loans. Incredible rip-off. The overnight Fed rate is 1.75% to 2.00%. Undergraduate loans approaching .... 8%.

******************************

Mailing Her Letter To Santa 

... and then checking to make sure it was in the mailbox.

Dow Hits All-Time High -- Again -- December 19, 2019

Dow hits all-time high: Comes on day after US Congress fails to pass bipartisan articles of impeachment of the president. The articles passed were supported only by Democrats and at least two Democrats switched to become Republicans. And now, the US House my delay sending the articles to the US Senate. LOL.

Dow: up nearly 100 points; trading aroudn 28,336. Other indices:

• S&P 500: up slightly; trading at 3,196
• NASDAQ:  up nicely, trading at 8,855
• WTI: right at $61/bbl; up 14 cents -- despite US crude oil storage builds this week;

Chevron could slash Nigerian oil production by 350,000 bopd. Workers' strike in Nigeria.

Apple Expansion; ObamaCare "Individual Mandate" Ruled Unconstitutional -- Notes From All Over, December 19, 2019

First things first: bird-watching this morning after putting out bird feed -- spotted the first woodpecker in our backyard (DFW, Texas, area). It looked like a ladder-backed woodpecker but it was too far away for me to get a photo. But this would be an unusual habitat for this particular bird. The only other likely species would be the red-bellied woodpecker but it just seemed to have a bigger red crest than what the red-bellied woodpecker had.   [Update, February 25, 2020: I am now convinced these are not ladder-backed woodpeckers in our backyard. It is very, very clear that the woodpeckers I'm watching in the DFW area have their red plumage on the back of their neck / their nape and not on the crown of their heads. This makes it most likely they are red-bellied woodpecker.]

ObamaCare: "individual mandate" ruled unconstitutional by 5th US Circuit Court Appeals in New Orleans.

Apple expansion:

• eyeing office space in Pittsburgh, New York City;
• Toronto: Apple store at Fairview Mall to nearly double in size; the new Fairview Mall store would follow in the footsteps of Apple's new Eaton Centre store in Toronto, which opened last weekend.

*************************************

The Market

Housing market "on fire." Link here. Existing home sales --

• prior: 5.460 million
• prior revised: 5.440 million
• consensus: 5.450 million
• actual: 5.350 million homes
• m/m change: -1.7%
• y/y change: 2.7%
• Narrative: Existing home sales rose strongly in October to extend a recent run that has lifted readings in this report to their best levels since early last year. For November, forecasters see a 5.450 million rate which would be little changed from October's 5.460 million. 

Jobless claims, link here:

• prior: 252K
• consensus: 221K
• actual: 234K 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market on news of the impeachment of Trump: all three indices likely to set new all-time highs, extending the Santa Claus rally. The Dow is up 60 points in early morning trading.

Early morning training:

• BA:  up half a percent; did it hit bottom earlier this week; a trading stock? pays 2.5%
• AAPL: finally turned green after opening in the red; but essentially flat;
• UNP: most interesting; opened lower; now up 50 cents; futures overnight were concerning but appears to be holding

Coal: Warren Buffett taking flak for coal plant closures. Paywall, Financial Times. Data points:

• PacifiCorp
• accelerated plans to install wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage
• accelerating plans to retire coal-fired generators in the US west.
• Wyoming: 40% of US coal
• PacifiCorp: largest holding in Berkshire Hathaway Energy, which itself is one of the most important businesses inside Mr Buffett's famous investment company
• chairman and former CEO, Greg Abel, like successor to Mr Buffett to run BRK itself
• PacifiCorp: 
• provides power in six US states; including coastal Washington and Oregon, ban coal-fired electricity by 2025 and 2030, respectively
• PacifiCorp acquired by Berkshire Hathaway in 2006
• two divisions, Rocky Mountain Power and Pacific Power
• other Berkshire utilities include: NV Energy in Nevada

Noble Energy and its master-limited will voluntarily move to NASDAQ.

United Airlines: will connect tech capitals San Francisco and Dublin. I did not read the article but the company that jumps out at me with regard to this headline: Apple. 

Rising Bakken Gas Production Displacing Western Canadian Gas On Pipes -- RBN Energy -- December 19, 2019

Road to Mexico: country's growing fuel market just got less competitive -- Bloomberg. 

Mexico just made it harder for foreign companies to compete in its nascent fuel market.

Two rules designed to facilitate private investment in the energy sector were rolled back this week, in a move reflective of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s opposition to his predecessor’s free-market reforms.

A federal court on Wednesday overturned a rule ...

The latest changes are “indicative” of the more challenging political environment that fuel importers face under the new government.Pemex is on track for 15 years of oil production declines and it is struggling to reduce debt of about $100 billion, the highest of any oil company.

Mexico, from same link as above:

Lopez Obrador has staunchly opposed his predecessor’s policies that opened the energy market to private investment in 2014 after almost eight decades in which Pemex held a monopoly in the sector. His government has suspended competitive oil auctions and joint-venture agreements with Pemex in its oil fields. He’s also tasked Pemex and the Energy Ministry with building a new $8 billion refinery in his home state of Tabasco, with the aim of making Mexico self-sufficient in fuel production and reducing the influence of global oil markets. [Comment: I was aware of the proposed $8 billion refinery; I had forgotten/did not know that it was in his home state of Tabasco -- speaks volumes.]

**********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$60.74	12/19/2019	12/19/2018	12/19/2017	12/19/2016	12/19/2015
Active Rigs	53	68	54	41	64

Wells coming off the confidential list today --  

Thursday, December 19, 2019: 56 for the month; 261 for the quarter:

• 36169, drl, XTO, Lavern 42X-EXF, Capa, no production data,
• 35900, SI/NC, Slawson, Slasher Federal 2-222-27H, Big Bend, no production data,

Wednesday, December 18, 2019: 54 for the month; 259 for the quarter:

• 36168, drl, XTO, Lavern 42X-14AXD, Capa, no production data,
• 35742, 2,167, Whiting, Ogden 41-9HU, Sanish, t 7/19; cum 126K 10/19;
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  10-2019	33644	33307
  9-2019	26188	17759
  8-2019	22166	0
  7-2019	39696	0
  6-2019	4286	0

RBN Energy: rising Bakken gas production displacing western Canadian gas on pipes. Archived.

Crude oil prices and, just as important, the availability of pipeline takeaway capacity, have supported continued production growth in the Bakken. Good news, right? Except, that’s led to sharply increased output of associated gas in a region that for years has been playing catch-up on the gas processing capacity front. As a result, gas-flaring volumes have soared this year, putting pressure on crude-focused producers to slow down their drilling-and-completion activity. Things are finally getting better, though — 670 MMcf/d of processing capacity has come online in western North Dakota since late July, and another 200 MMcf/d will start up next month. That gives Bakken producers some room to grow but also poses a problem for Western Canadian producers, namely that more pipeline gas out of the Bakken means less room for Alberta and British Columbia gas on pipes to the Midwest. Today, we begin a short blog series on incremental Bakken gas processing capacity and its impacts on producers — and natural gas prices — up in Canada.