Tuesday, March 15, 2022

There May Be A Reason That North Dakota Crude Oil Production Dropped Five Percent Month-Over-Month -- Director's Cut -- January, 2022, Data

I'm rushed. This may or may not make sense to folks. I may come back to this.

Before folks get too excited about the 5 percent drop in North Dakota crude oil production month-over-month (January, 2022-December, 2021), folks may want to look at these numbers. 

The numbers are accurate but some may be preliminary, revised, or final, but they are all pretty close to accurate as noted. I'll come back and double-check the numbers but, as noted, they are pretty close. 

January, 2022, numbers are preliminary; next month, they are revised, and the following month, they are "final." The "final" numbers don't vary much from the preliminary or revised numbers. 

This data is tracked here

January, 2022: 

  • inactive: 2,420 (up 23% month-over-month)
  • DUCS: 449 (compare with 475 last month and 416 two months before that)
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,869  (up 17% month-over-month)
  • producing: 16,856 (down two percent month-over-month)

December, 2021: 

  • inactive: 1,975
  • DUCS: 475
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,450
  • producing: 17,200 (revised)

November, 2021: 

  • inactive: 1,957
  • DUCS: 416
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,373
  • producing: 17,245 (new all-time high)

Oasis Dividend -- March 15, 2022

Link here for 3/11/22.

  • Oasis dividend: $3.00.

Link here.

Dashboards Have Been Posted, March, 2022 Data

EIA dashboards:

Posted March 15, 2022.

Why Tesla, Rivian Are Raising Prices -- March 16, 2022

Rare earth

This is like mining for gold. 

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Time For Haircut

Sophia was five years old when she first cut my hair; that was in early 2020. She is still cutting my hair. I haven't been to a professional barber since early 2020.




No New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 15, 2022

Oil: if indeed, oil inventories remain robust, how remarkable is the US shale sector? Pretty remarkable considering relatively low number of rigs; minimal drilling; lack of frack spread; decreasing DUCs. 

Active rigs:

$96.44
3/15/202203/15/202103/15/202003/15/201903/15/2018
Active Rigs33
15556557

No new permits:

Eight permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (4): the following permits were renewed, all in Dunn County: Gneiss, Marble, Quartzite, and Phyllite.
  • Petro Harvester (2): two RNL 1 permits in Burke County, Lignite oil field.
  • Hess: one SC-Bingemam permit in Williams County.
  • Sinclair: one Porcupine permit, in Dunn County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 22653, 3,336, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HZ, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 129K 1/22; see production below;
  • 38048, 277, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH, Big Bend, minimal production;

22653:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20223119052192713980010977109770
BAKKEN12-20213121633214514401413398133980
BAKKEN11-20213021624216874395013541133900
BAKKEN10-20213126484263284193216512165120
BAKKEN9-20213039978399784228714153141530

Director's Cut Posted -- January, 2022, Data

Data for January, 2022.

Production, crude oil:

  • January, 2022: 1,086,692 bopd
  • December, 2021: 1,144,999 bopd
  • down: 58,307 bopd
  • down: 5.0%

Wells

January, 2022: 
  • inactive: 2,420
  • DUCS: 449
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,869
  • producing: 16,856

December, 2021: 

  • inactive: 1,975
  • DUCS: 475
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,450
  • producing: 17,200 (revised)

November, 2021: 

  • inactive: 1,957
  • DUCS: 416
  • total off line for operational reasons: 2,373
  • producing: 17,245 (new all-time high)

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Original Post

Director's Cut, January 2022, Data

Link here.

Data for January, 2022.

Production, crude oil:

  • January, 2022: 1,086,692 bopd
  • December, 2021: 1,144,999 bopd
  • down: 58,307 bopd
  • down: 5.0%

Production, natural gas:

  • January, 2022: 2,825,395 MCF/day
  • December, 2022: 3,027,656, MCF/day
  • down: 202,261 MCF/day
  • down: 6.7%

Crude price:

  • today: $98.75
  • January, 2022: $74.86
  • December, 2021: $65.46

Price, revised forecast:

  • today: up 102%
  • January, 2022: up 54%
  • December, 2021: up 34%

Rig count:

  • Today: 33, includes non-oil and gas rigs
  • February, 2022: 34
  • January, 2022: 31
  • December, 2022: 32

Wells, permitted:

  • February, 2022: 32
  • January, 2022: 39
  • December, 2021: 45

Wells, completed:

  • February, 2022: 90 (preliminary)
  • January, 2022: 75 (revised)
  • December, 2021: 65 (final)

Wells, inactive:

  • January, 2022: 2,420
  • December, 2021: 1,957

Wells, waiting on completion:

  • January, 2022: 449
  • December, 2021: 475

Wells, producing:

  • January, 2022: 16,856
  • December, 2021: 17,200

Wells, offline for operational reasons, are tracked here.

EIA: US Shale Production Set For Big Jump In April -- March 15, 2022

Before we get to the Julianne Geiger article:

NOG: updated base dividendgrowth plan and announced additional shareholder returns; increases average quarterly dividend increases to 23%. Link here.

Now back to Julianne: I apologize. This is the third time I've linked this story since it came out. But I've decided to post it as a stand-alone story. If this turns out to be accurate, this will be quite amazing. Yes, the rig county has increased over the past few weeks, but not by much. 

From Julianne Geiger over at oilprice.com:

U.S. shale oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins are set for their biggest rise since March of 2020, according to new EIA data.

The Energy Information’s Drilling Productivity Report is estimating that the total production in the seven major U.S. shale basins will rise by 117,000 bpd next month, to 8.708 million bpd, according to the EIA’s latest version of the Drilling Productivity Report. The news comes as U.S. crude oil production finds itself in the spotlight as to the reasons they are not producing more.

Projections:

  • February production: to rise by 117,000 bpd; to 8.708 million bpd;
  • March production: to reach 8.591 million bpd, a significant increase in previous project; new projection based on February numbers;
  • April:
  • Permian: from 5.138 million bpd to 5.208 million bpd
  • Eagle Ford: a 23,000 bpd rise to 1.146 million bpd
  • Bakken: a 16,000 bpd increase

The linked article mentions DUCs in passing. Nothing new.

I can't talk to the other basins, but pad drilling and the halo effect in the Bakken is much, much more important than the DUC count. This has been a constant theme of the blog. If the EIA projections are correct, it will corroborate that observation, and pad drilling and halo effect (PDHE) could show up in Bakken's summer production numbers. We won't see final August data until October, 2022, so we have lots of time to bury this post. LOL.

Beautiful Day In North Texas; Spring Break; Not Much Blogging -- March 15, 2022

I won't be blogging much this week, and I'm not following the news much. Yesterday I was interested in only two stories: the PGA Champions Tournament. I talk about it elsewhere. Post-play interview with the champion, an Australian, corroborated my initial statements about Brandel Chamblee's insane remarks at end of first day of play. 

The other story: Chevron and Venezuela. Way too early to say what might happen. My hunch: both Maduro and the Biden administration will pull the rug out from under Chevron. But it could turn out to be one of the top five international energy stories this year. Memo to self: how much oil has Venezuela produced in the past; and, how much oil has the US, historically, imported from Venezuela:

  • US imports:
    • 2 million bopd, prior to the US shale revolution;
    • after the US shale revolution, US imports from Venezuela declined significantly to 1 million bopd;
    • after sanctions: 0 bopd imported from Venezuela
  • as far as overall production goes,
    • at best, Venezuela has produced 3.5 million bopd
    • after the US shale revolution and prior to sanctions: around 2.5 million bopd
    • after sanctions, around 1 million bopd to the non-US global market, much of it for local consumption;
  • in other words: 
    • with enough time but certainly not within six month, removing sanctions on Venezuela could "move the needle for CVX, but,
    • will not do much for the global market; almost all of Venezuelan oil will flow to US

The EVs are in big trouble. What none of them needed to see was huge drop in the price of oil. More on that later, perhaps. TSLA is down another 0.67% today, now off another $6; and, trading at $761. The 52-week high was trending toward $1,250. 

WTI: someone noted that the highest trade in past few days was $139, very likely someone forced to buy to cover his/her short position. 

China: It seems like there was something else to talk about but I guess that's it. I still get a kick out of how China is playing this. Posted earlier and a bit more, now:

China: has certainly learned how to play the game. Shut down Shenzehn (equivalent to shutting down Silicon Valley, Detroit, and Houston). Push China into a recession. Cool things down. Price of oil falls.

Some weeks ago that was considered a playbook for the US: push the US into a recession, cool things down, etc.

Jay Powell just got some much needed help.

Beautiful weather in north Texas today. I may do a bit more blogging this morning, but this afternoon I wil be with Sophia.

From A High Of $120 Too $96, WTI Plummets; And We Did Not Even Get To Demand Destruction Or A Windfall Profits Tax -- March 15, 2022

China: has certainly learned how to play the game. Shut down Shenzehn (equivalent to shutting down Silicon Valley, Detroit, and Houston). Push China into a recession. Cool things down. Price of oil falls.

Russia-Ukraine war: it took ten years or so for the Russians to leave Afghanistan (similar to US, by the way) but Ukrainians are suggesting war will be over by May if Russian logistics unable to sustain.

EVs: they're all in trouble. Now, Tesla announces second increase in prices in less than one month. Rivian also announced a price increase recently. All those rare earth metals apparently really are rare. For any company selling anything, it's all about margins.

WTI: I guess this is what they meant by "demand destruction." It had nothing to do with the price of oil.

Breathing room: for the Biden administration.

Windfall profits tax: David Messler weighs in.

US shale: now we know why they were cautious.

US shale: for those that missed it, EIA is projecting a huge surge in production in April. If the EIA means "APRIL" production we won't see first estimates until May, and final numbers until June, 2022.

Buffett: it will be interesting if there are reports that he may have bought high?

President Obama: says he felt a tickle in this throat; tested positive for Covid. What in the world would possess someone with those symptoms to get tested -- except for some secondary gain? That was truly bizarre. My hunch: he had half a dozen new unused testing kits and was simply curious. One test? Could easily have been a false positive. Needs at least two more confirmatory tests. The big question, has he started on his ivermectin regime, available to elites and world leaders.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: updated base dividend growth plan and announced additional shareholder returns; increases average quarterly dividend increases to 23%. Link here.

Active rigs:

$96.56
3/15/202203/15/202103/15/202003/15/201903/15/2018
Active Rigs3215556557

Tuesday, March 15, 2022: 22 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 131 for the year

  • 38558, conf, Kraken, Maddie LW 100-15-22-1H, Ellisville, no production data.
  • 38522, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-24-36H1,Werner, producing, 17K over 28 days;
  • 38496, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 9-34H2, Oakdale, no production data,
  • 38451, conf, Slawson, Rainmaker Federal 6-25-36TFH,Big Bend, no production data,

RBN Energy: how refined FERC policies will affect new LNG terminals, part 2. Archived.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued two new statements of policy February 17 regarding the certification of new pipelines and the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts.

Together, the two updates reflect a more meticulous regulatory environment and a stricter adherence to policies that midstreamers must comply with in an effort to avoid lengthy and expensive court challenges that have become more commonplace recently. The guidelines will affect most new projects within FERC jurisdiction and, among those, some of the biggest impacts will be felt in the U.S.’s rapidly expanding LNG sector — the terminals themselves and the pipelines that deliver feedgas to them. That could be cause for concern as Russia’s war on Ukraine has exacerbated an already precarious gas situation in Europe and a global LNG supply crunch. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the impact of FERC’s latest guidance on pipeline certification and GHG policy with regard to the LNG sector.