Copper -- May 6, 2023

Locator: 44583CU.

Regular readers know I don't follow the market when things get crazy -- and I haven't looked at the market for about two weeks now ... until Friday when we saw the Dow jump 550 points. But I only looked at AAPL and one other stock which I've now forgotten which.

Tonight, while watching reruns of Colombo, after sitting on the balcony during a pretty remarkable north Texas electrical storm, I was curious -- I forget why -- I must have seen something on my twitter feed. 

Whatever.

Just curious, I took a peek at SCCO. 

In my 40-30-20-5-5 bucket, SCCO is part of the 30 --

Investing: "new money" allotment --

• "40-30-20-5-5":
• 40%: big cap value; dividend paying; BRK-like;
• 30: beaten down tech, copper;
• 20: oil; second tier;
• 5: healthcare
• 5: Daimler Truck

So, I was curious, how is SCCO doing.

Friday:

That's scary. Look at that P/E. And within striking distance of a 52-week high. And a 5.05% dividend.   

And, SCCO recently doubled its dividend.

I had completely forgotten that I had put Cu in my "beaten-down tech" bucket. 

For the next six months, possibly twelve months, I won't add any new money to the "energy bucket." My new-money allotment will become:

Investing: "new money" allotment --

• "50-40-5-5":
• 50%: big cap value; dividend paying; BRK-like;
• 40: beat down tech, copper;
• 5: healthcare
• 5: Daimler Truck

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Recession? What Recession? May 6, 2023

Locator: 44582ECON. 

Maybe it's regional?

Link here.

We're seeing this (at Costco) in north Texas (DFW) also, as well as at restaurants.

And remember, there's a construction boom out in California -- the greatest construction boom since the Great Depression.

********************************
And Then, There's New York

Link here.

Much more at the link; one of the better New Yorker reviews.

Utilities Scrambling To Get Rid Of Low-Margin Energy Production -- May 6, 2023

Locator: 44581WIND. 

We've talked about this before: folks are finding it difficult to turn a profit with wind, and even if they do (turn a profit) the margins are lousy.

Link here.

Everybody knows.

What happens when state and federal regulatory agencies mandate minimum renewable energy production?

BRK -- 1Q23

Locator: 44580BRK. 

Annual meeting.

A reminder:

• Warren Buffett is 93 years old this year.
• Charlie Munger is 99 years old.

Earnings.

DNYUZ: big jump in earnings.

CNBC. Bought five Japanese trading houses.

CNBC: live updates.

WSJ: published right after the conclusion of the meeting. By the way, look at the URL at that link.

Three takeaways:

• Warren Buffett says US corporate taxes are too low; and,
• Warren Buffett says he doesn't worry about "the Fed."
• Charlie Munger doesn't buy into a lot of "meme" talk.
  

One might want to read the transcript to fact check those two takeaways. I'm sure about the second one (re: "the Fed") and I think I'm correct about the first one (re: taxes).

There will easily be 500 links between now and the end of next week with regard to this meeting, so will post only a few select links.

I listened to much of the meeting, not all, and was quite surprised with some of the results.

It might be interesting to see the preview of earnings; here's one link.

Another Mis-step? Bud Not An Official Sponsor Of The Kentucky Derby? May 6, 2023

Locator: 44579BUD. 

Plenty of 3rd-tier advertisers with a few top-shelf liquor ads ... but no BUD?

3rd-tier? Mr Clean, for one. Or "America's Got Talent"? 

Two big advertisers on TKD: Tide and Mr Clean. Speaks volumes. 

*************************
Update

May 8, 2023:

Random Apple Links This Saturday Morning After A Wild Week -- May 6, 2023

Locator: 44578AAPL.

The links:

• Demographics: link here.
• Five-year share price: link here.
• Net income, through 1Q23 (2Q23 data released two days ago; yet to be updated at this link).
• Axios: link here.

The reason this all becomes important:

• is Apple a growth company or a value company?
• does Apple have a BRK problem: can anything move the needle for AAPL: if anything can, what is it?

I don't know, yet. Still pondering.

ChatGPT would probably be the best source.

It's very, very important to get the answers to those questions right. Compare share price / net income, March 31, 2019 and March 31, 2023.

Checking In On Some 4Q19 Wells -- May 6, 2023

Locator: 100014Q19. 

Goes over 500K, four years old:

• 34438, 619, Enerplus, Muscovy 148-93-20A-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 390K 9/20; cum 572K 3/23; 
• 35714, 2,798, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HE, Mandaree, t8/19; cum 62K in two months; and here's the frack data: 33 stages; 8.7 million lbs; cum 314
  K 9/20; huge well; cum 502K 3/23; this is a big well; still producing 5,000 bbls/month;
• 35715, 2,442, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HW, Mandaree, t11/19; cum 297K 9/20; cum 528K 3/23;

Goes over 600K four years old:

• 34440, 1,084, Enerplus, Mallard 148-93-20B-29H-TF, McGregory Buttes, t4/19; cum 415K 9/20; cum 602K 3/23;

Still flowing after four years:

• 34595, 2,799, Hess, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-3, F, Robinson Lake, t11/19; cum 167K 9/20; the Hess EN-Weyrauch wells are tracked here; cum 332K 3/23;
• 35650, 3,901, WPX, Bird Bear 36-25HB, Spotted Horn, t9/19; cum 48K over 23 days; 330K 9/20; cum 443K 3/23; F;

Off line for awhile; back on line:

• 35988, SI/NC-->SI/A->A, Slawson, Moray Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum 81K 3/20; remains off line 9/20; back on line, 2/21; cum 333K 3/23; huge well;

Off line:

• 34908, 916, Neptune Operating / Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H, Elk, t4/19; cum 184K 9/20; cum 210K 2/23; off line 3/23;
• 35109, 956, CLR, Morris 7-26H2, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 265K 9/20; big well; cum 391K 1/23; F;
• 35713, 1,450, WPX, Nancy Dancing Bull 1-36HQL, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 260K 9/20; cum 387K 1/23; off line;  36298, SI/NC, Ovintiv/Newfield, Schneiderman 15-99-29-32-5H, South Tobacco Garden, t--; cum 325K 10/22;

Flashback: One Week Ago -- May 6, 2023

Locator: 44577B. 

The week ends with the Dow surging 550 points and all economic data suggesting the US is doing much better than expected. That much-predicted, much-anticipated, much-elusive recession is, again, pushed to the right.

In less than a week, GDPNow went from 1.1 to 2.7 for the second quarter. 

From an energy standpoint, look at this "Focus on Fracking" lede as the week began.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at another 39-year low, US gasoline demand is at a 16-month high after the greatest one week jump in 22 years.

Think about that: US gasoline demand at a 16-month high after the greatest one-week jump in 22 years.

That "edition" of "FOF" was posted April 30, 2023.

Compare that side-by-side with my blog of April 28, 2023.  

"FOF" corroborated my argument that we can say with certainty that the US is now "back to normal."

The US shutdown spring, 2020. Reset: spring, 2023. 

One almost has to eliminate three years when comparing data points -- data points in almost any analysis:

• March, 2020 - February, 2021
• March, 2021 - February, 2022
• March, 2022 - February, 2023

March, 2023: reset.

I may expand on that later, but now ... out to the pool.