It’s On — Palindromic Wednesday — 2-23-22

Oil quickly moving up:

WTI up $3.00 in last hour or so.

Brent: two quarters short of $100. At least one report Brent has hit $100. Later, 10:14 p.m.: Brent at $100.05. Brent continues to creep up; solidly above $00 now. SPR release can’t come quickly enough. Later, 10:36 p.m.CT: $101.23. Briefly hit $102.07 before dropping back. WTI: $96.32. Up over $4.00 since afternoon close. Perhaps time to do some hedging. Lock in those prices before White House announces the SPR release.

Follow here.

Ukraine airspace closed to commercial / civilian aircraft. Later, 10:19 p.m.: Russian forces have reportedly taken Kiev airport.

Follow military reports here.

It’s going to be a most-highly-watched State of the Union Address less than six days from now, first day of Women’s History Month.

USPS Sticks With Oshkosh For ICE And BEVs -- Palindromic Wednesday -- 2-23-22

Updates

March 24, 2022:

• USPS: $2.98 billion for 50,000 next-generation delivery vehicles from Oshkosh Corp
• will double its initial planned EV purchases
• much more at the link

Original Post

Oshkosh. I don't think I ever posted this story. I wasn't particularly interested and then when Biden got involved, I became even less interested. My data points, right or wrong:

• USPS has to re-new many of its old, old, old neighborhood mail vans -- those blue-and-white cubes from the 1950s that look like they are on their last leg (or wheel, as it may be)
• going through the typical long and winding bureaucratic maze to make a decision for new vehicles, the decisions was finally made this past month
• the debate came down to gasoline-ICE vs battery
• USPS came down on the side of gasoline-ICE -- specifically ICE vehicles built by Oshkosk
• that didn't sit well with the ideologues in the Biden administration and demanded a "re-look"
• today it's being reported that the USPS didn't back down; they're sticking with their original decision: Oshkosh, by gosh. And, here.

From the linked article:

This action steamrolls the Biden administration's pledge to replace its federal fleet of 600,000 cars and trucks with electric power.

USPS operates 230,000 vehicles, which is approximately 33% of the government fleet.

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a Trump ally, has firmly said the full electrification of the USPS fleet wouldn't happen under his watch. Last year, he committed to converting only 10% of its new trucks to electric power.

The decision allows USPS to purchase gasoline-powered trucks from Oshkosh under a $6 billion contract awarded last February.

USPS rejected a bid from electric-vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group Inc. to electrify its fleet. Workhorse shares slumped as much as 3.5% today on the USPS news to purchase Oshkosh mail trucks.

[In fact, most everything is slumping in the market these days.]

And, more: 

The Postal Service expects its new gasoline-engine mail delivery trucks will achieve a fuel-efficiency of 8.6 miles/USG with air conditioning on or 14.7 miles/USG without, compared to 8.2 miles/USG with its existing fleet of "right-hand drive" delivery trucks that do not have any air conditioning. The US Environmental Protection Agency, in comments on the plan, said the truck acquisition plan "barely" improved fuel-economy over the existing 30-year-old fleet.

From wiki today:

In February 2020, Oshkosh Corporation was named one of the 2020 World's Most Ethical Companies by Ethisphere. 

In February 2021, Oshkosh Defense was awarded the U.S. Postal Service's Next Generation Delivery Vehicle mail truck contract for between 50,000 and 165,000 units over ten years, with production start targeted for 2023. 

The fleet will include low-emissions internal combustion engine vehicles as well as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and could be worth over $6 billion.

Russia Not Holding US Treasuries -- Palindromic Wednesday -- 2-23-22

Link here. 

US treasuries:

• awhile ago, Russia held $110 billion in US Treasuries;
• today, not so much: $3.8 billion.

Let's see what happens when Russians liquidate their AAPL shares. 

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Hank Williams, Sr, and Anita Carter

I'm not sure if it's mentioned anywhere at the site, but it looks like this was recorded in 1952. Hank Williams, Sr, would have been 29 years old, and would be dead eight months later. Anita Carter, the other vocalist, was the younger sister of Helen Carter. The youngest sister was June Carter Cash. Anita would have been 19 years old at the time of this recording, and the older sister introducing her would have been Helen Carter, about 25 years old, but certainly sounding much more childish. Be that as it may, what an incredible audio/video.

I Can't Help It If I'm Still In Love With You, Hank Williams, Sr and Anita Carter

From A Reader -- Covid Update From Denmark -- Palindromic Wednesday -- 2-23-22

From a reader in Denmark:

Just a note about the situation in Denmark and why we have zero restrictions left, foor 4 weeks now.

There could still be a few Covid-related patients in ICU with the Delta variant. 

Less people are dying every week if you look at the total numbers from before the covid and this year. 

In fact, the life expectancy from all Danes has moved to the right in same period with 6-7 weeks since 2018.  

Total today: 32 in ICU and 9 on ventilator.  

Looking at the data from all blood donors we can see that 60% has been infected and most with The Omicron BA2 variant.  

The other game changer has been what I will link to. It's the booster vaccine. 

As a very liberal country it has been voluntary to get the vaccine and no restrictions at all for unvaccinated people. 

A lot of tests, but it became at a point just like to brush teeth.

I replied to the reader but will not post the reply. I wanted emphasis to be on the reader's note, not my reply.

Most interesting: life expectancy for the Danes has actually increased during the past two years.

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Amazon Prime

In the old days, even with Amazon Prime for which I paid for "free shipping," I still tried to consolidate orders.

But now that Amazon is making deliveries to our complex three or four times/day, consolidating orders no longer makes sense. The tipping point, for me, came when Amazon raised prices for Amazon Prime.

Alexandre Solzhenitsyn's Legacy And All That Jazz -- Palindromic Wednesday - 2-23-22

Breaking: I have not fact-checked this and have not seen corroborating evidence, but there is a video out there with Justin Trudeau saying he will not extend the Emergency War Powers Act. If true one wonders if comparisons with Putin were just a bit too much for this Canadian leader?

API: for the record, but I prefer the EIA data that comes out a day later -- numbers rounded --

• Cushing: minus 2.1 million bbls
• distillate: minus 1.0 million bbls
• gasoline: plus 0.4 million bbls
• crude oil: plus 6 million bbls -- first crude build in five weeks.
  

Phil Mickelson: Christian Richey given unenviable assignment to write the Phil Mickelson story for The WSJ.

Wow, wow, wow: Richey didn't even have to do any origianl research: it appears to be a "cut and paste" from Twitter. I would have expected better from The WSJ.

Bloomberg: in panic mode. Accusing ZeroHedge of being Putin's tool.

The Bloomberg  writers suggest ZeroHedge has a conservative bent. Wrong. In fact, ZeroHedge is libertarian and reactionary. It is not "Reagan-conservative." Twitter may be forced to suspend ZeroHedge's twitter account. The good news: most folks who follow ZeroHedge go to the site directly; they don't go through Twitter to get to ZeroHedge.

SPR release: another release coming. The administration must have been spooked by the JP Morgan headline. 

Hugely bullish for oil. Fifty million bbls is twelve hours of global supply and most of it will end up in China and India. Computer-driven algorithms interpret an SPR release with a "relative" shortage of oil. 

The Biden administration might as well coordinate SPR releases with Fed rate increases. By the time the US driving season gets here, the US will have nothing left in the tank to release.

Ukraine: some thought Putin might stop with the two rogue provinces,

• but now in light of 
• Alexandre Solzhenitsyn's memoirs; and, 
• lack of any meaningful western response to the minor incursion, 
• the tea leaves suggest this is not over, not by a long shot.
• would a "change agent" be happy with two unnameable rogue provinces when a whole country is within easy grasp?
  

Vietnam: grapples with fuel shortages.

Venezuela: on the brink of becoming a failed nation. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$92.36	2/23/2022	02/23/2021	02/23/2020	02/23/2019	02/23/2018
Active Rigs	31	15	54	66	56

One new permit, #38792:

• Operator: Ovintiv
• Field: Ranch Coulee (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Ovintiv has a permit for a White Butte well in Ranch Coulee oil field, 
• lot 4 section 2-145-98; 478 FNL and 384 FWL

One permit renewed:

• 38056, XTO, Wood 21X-25C,

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37631, 351, BR, Cherry Danish 1U MBH, Haystack Butte, minimal production,
  
• 37633, 476, BR, Cherry Blossom 1S MBH, Haystack Butte, minimal production,
• 37334, 3,228, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-2, Manitou, first production 8/21; t--; cum 86K 12/21;
  

Oil Will Average $110 In 1Q22 -- JPMorgan -- Palindromic Wednesday -- 2-23-22